Decisionmaking

[buckwheat]

Hi all,

I'm a fairly noob hiker, and one of the most difficult aspects for me getting started out is practicing good decision-making skills when things aren't going exactly the way I'd hoped.

I'm the type of hiker who likes to explore the area in Google Earth before I head out, and to plan my hike and hike my plan, so to speak. (I'm 46, probably not in the best shape, and fairly inexperienced.) I will leave my contact information and a copy of my plan with park rangers, etc. Just seems like the smart thing to do, especially since I'm usually hiking alone and don't have much experience yet. I usually take enough gear so that if need be, I can survive for 3 days without any exertion. Even if I'm only planning a day-hike.

I found myself in a situation recently that called for some good decisionmaking, and I'm not sure I made the right decisions. I wonder if some of the more experienced guys can chime in with some advice. Here's the scenario:

I planned a day-hike halfway up Mount Greylock, which is the tallest mountain in the state of Massachusetts. I wanted to check out the winter campgrounds and just generally get a feel for the quality of the trail, exactly how big the mountain was, my pack-weight and some of my other gear. Your basic gear-test, recon, day-hike.

I waited until a good weather forecast (high of 40, clear skies, no real threat of precip.) That happened this past Tuesday. On checking in with the park ranger, he suggested a slightly different less intensive route (one I had also looked at and had familiarized myself with), so I altered my plan on the fly and hiked the suggested route.

I shouldered my pack at 11:30pm. I wanted to be back at the car by 4pm (giving me about 45 minutes of daylight for emergency). I had figured on about 2 hours to the campground, maybe half hour to 45 minutes of looking around, and 1.5 hours back down to the car.

So far, so good.

About half way up, the sky (clear when I started) was totally overcast, but it felt like the temps were holding up OK. (Warning sign number one.) About 2/3ds of the way up, it started lightly snowing and a little red light started blinking in the back corner of my right eye. About 8/10ths of the way up, I ran unexpectedly into rime ice that had been depositied the night before and I had no crampons. It got where I had to pay attention to each step to proceed, and I stopped and considered whether I was now biting off more than I could chew. My real concern was my own inexperience in judging how these conditions might slow my descent.

I stopped to check my cell phone. I was making appropriate travel time, but getting no cell signal, so figured I was on my own if I screwed up. I did have plenty of gear, food and water.

I was proceeding up the mountain steadily, and really felt like as long as I paid good attention to my footing, I'd probably be OK as far as reaching the top was concerned. I didn't feel like I was in danger at that moment, and I was relatively certain that I could get a good cell signal if I proceeded up to the campground area. I was also certain that there was excellent shelter possibilities there, firewood, etc. I was concerned that if the weather was truly turning on me, I'd potentially have to decide whether to stay the night on the top of the mountain and wait it out, but I also had the chance to maybe hoof it back down and scoot home, which frankly, felt a bit wussie-ish.

I've often read stories about disaster striking ... but striking one small, seemingly insignificant decision at a time, until all of a sudden, a bunch of small iffy decisions becomes one really bad day.

Should I have turned around?

[_terrapin_]

Solo hiking in winter is iffy. The potential for trouble is much higher than in summer. If poop happens, there are fewer folks around to help out. I feel quite comfortable hiking solo in summer, but not in winter, except in very mild conditions.

As to your direct question -- "should I have turned around?" -- that's your call and nobody else's. I'm generally cautious and conservative on these matters, but that's just me. From your description, it sounds like you were giving due thought to the dangers involved.

[Blissful]

Go with your instincts. It's why you have them. And be flexible as things are bound to change no matter how intensively you plan. Hiking can be quite unpredictable.

[Deadeye]

Three things come to mind:

You were aware that you had choices to make, and made smart enough choices to get back.

Seems to me that the poorest decision was to start so late - fall/winter days are short.

Descending is when most mishaps occur, falling up is not as painful as falling down

[bigcranky]

Let's see if we can sum up the situation: An inexperienced hiker is solo hiking in winter on an unfamiliar and now icy trail after a very late start when it starts to snow near the top. Turn around, or go for it? Hmmm.

You made one very astute observation: quite often, what appears to be a random and sudden disaster is actually the end result of lots of tiny bad decisions that didn't look so bad at the time.

The mountain will still be there next time. Our job is to make sure there is a next time.

[Feral Bill]

In my experience, there is a strong "ever upward" urge in such situations, that takes a concious will to overcome. You were uncomfortable in a potentialy hazardous situation, continued on, and came out OK. That's experience. The question is what will you do next time.

Write in about your next trip.

[Doctari]

From my 2 personal experience with hypothermia and all the training I have had regarding dealing with hypothermia, (I hate to say this) but you are lucky & probably should have turned around. Cold, Bad weather is nothing to play with.

As you get colder & closer to Hypothermia, your thought processes slow (stop?). Making "the right decission" slowly becomes impossible. I thought that after I had Hypothermia the first time, it would be so much easier to spot: I WAS WRONG! I'm still alive because I was stopped by someone that was warm, dry & still able to think, & it took 4 of them to stop me* because I was still running on the decision I had made when warm & dry [to get to the next shelter 3.5 miles away] because I was unable to think anymore. I too was lucky & survived my bad decision,, twice.
I was so bad the 2nd time that I could not set up the tent I had set up hundreds of times, even blindfolded. Thankfully, the 4 were able to figure it out easily enough & I got a warm dry house. Ambient temp both times, , , , , 50 degrees, but raining.



* They surrounded me & gently kept me from continuing down the trail, in spite of my protests. Thanks guys!

[Rockhound]

how did earl shaffer ever make it without a cell phone? and you ran into some bad weather? why didnt you turn around and start running at sight of the first dark cloud? you're situation sounds like it wasnt nearly the ordeal you make it out to be. good boots, proper clothing, good tent, good sleeping bag. have fun. have an adventure. 70 mph gusts on roan high knob, getting caught in a snowstorm in the smokies, severe thunderstorms coming down from blood mountain. waking up to single digits, its all part of it. stop snivling.

[_terrapin_]

Kinda harsh, doncha think, Rockhound? Esp. since the OP professes in the first line of his post to be a "noob hiker." I thought it was a thoughtful post -- and it triggered some thoughtful responses... at least till yours came around.

I'm gonna guess the OP had sort of the same reaction I did after a solo hike up Mt. Hayes in the winter of 1989. Got home and pinched myself, realizing (after the fact) how easy it would have been to f up and die up there.

[fiddlehead]

Were you enjoying the feeling? Sounds like you were scared. That's normal in this situation i think.

Sometimes being scared is one of the only ways i feel like i'm Really Living.

Yes, it is up to the individual. In my past, i would've defintely kept going.
NOw?
I hope i would do the same but i'd have to be there to find out.

[JAK]

Well I think you are really asking two questions here.

The last most direct one was whether or not you should turn back,
The first one was how you should go about learning decision-making skills when things don't go well.

The paradox is that you have to make mistakes in order to learn how your mind functions when you make mistakes.
The thing is that you have to have some sort of safety margin, so you can push the envelop, make mistakes and learn from it without doing yourself harm or putting others out or in harms way.

I can only answer it in that way because there really isn't enough information otherwise. I will say this much, based on my own winter experience and mistakes. Take it for what its worth, which is nothing really unless you happen to come to the same conclusions based on your own personal experience.
1. You don't have to go as far in winter to learn valuable lessons as you do other times of the year.
2. I think on winter overnights, or dayhikes testing overnight gear, you should carry clothes and gear that you would use for the climate extremes for that month, not the weather forecast for that weekend. That isn't always practical at altitude. I don't do altitude. If I did altitude I would say you would at least want to have the clothes and gear for the worst conditions back below the treeline, and enough mobility and time to get there when needed. That gets into some judgement calls I don't have.
3. Below the treeline I think winter clothing is more critical than winter sleeping gear and shelter. I wouldn't skimp on either, but proper winter clothing is more essential in my opinion. Always have enough clothes to stay warm in the worst conditions for that month even at a slow trudge. Practice that first to know how much clothing that is at 30F, 20F, 10F, etc.
4. From my experience, once you are in trouble you will probably want more food and insulation and probably not so much weight in heavy shells and shelters. You need it all, but people tend to have not enough food and insulation and perhaps too much fraction of their weight in the other stuff.
5. You need somewhat more food in winter, but more critically, you are more likely to be delayed and you need more food for that reason.
6. The greatest risk of hypothermia is if you overexert yourself. Conserve your energy. When conditions deteriorate or if you are delayed or confused in any way, stop and rest and make yourself a hot meal or even stop for the night, and then proceed from there at a slow trudge whether you decide it is best to return or safe to proceed. Fast packing and fast skiing are for good days close to home, not for solo trips away from your safety net. Rarely should you need to exert yourself strenuously in an emergency. Conserve your energy.
7. You will get wet. Learn to stay dry, but also learn how to get dry once your wet. Develop a clothing system that is easy to keep dry but also warm when wet and able to be dried or managed once wet. For me this doesn't involve any extra clothing, just enough clothing for the worst conditions, layered more or less evenly across my entire body, and a mix of skin layers, wool, fleece, and light shells. Don't go overboard on the down at the expense of wool and fleece.
8. Feet. Learn what works 10F to 40F in snow. Then learn what works below 10F in snow.
9. Have multiple exit points so you can stay out for days but be out in 24 hours when needed.

There is alot more, but I don't know much more, or can't think of it at the moment.

[JAK]

10. Be prepared to discover that you were not prepared, and have made some mistakes.

[JAK]

11. If you are going to walk on ice, be prepared to fall through, and know what to do after you do. You don't neccessarily have to practice this too realistically, but you should at least know what its like when your clothes are soaked and your hands are frozen. You can get soaked in 0F and freezing rain even without falling in.
12. Practice making a small fire and tea at least once a day even on day-hikes. Its fun, if nothing else, but having practiced the routine will really help straighten your mind out and thinking straight again if you do it after finding yourself lost or delayed.

[buckwheat]

Thanks all, for the excellent feedback. I think all of it was useful.

Now ... to the rest of the story: Obviously, I did make it down OK, but looking back on it, I think that was just as much happenstance and luck as anything I did.

I think the mistake I made was not initially trusting my judgment. There was a point on the trail where I stopped hiking and said to myself: "It's a mistake to keep going up." I stood in the trail and counted all the ways things weren't going my way:

1) Deteriorating weather
2) Getting on the mountain so late
3) Wrong gear
4) Unpredicted ground conditions

And yet, I ultimately made the decision to keep going, mainly because of the thought that very close by (say ... within about 500 vertical feet) , there was a lot of shelter and warmth and a cell signal to be had. I really, really wanted to get a weather update if I could. I also said to myself: "This is experience, and if you chicken out at the first threat of a snowflake, then you're sniveling." I thought Rockhound kind of had a point there.

Was I in danger? Probably not much. But I was certainly out of my comfort zone and ill prepared equipment-wise. I did not expect the rime ice, and was kicking myself that I had no crampons. The weather certainly could have made it much more difficult to get down, or forced a bivouac. On the other hand, I was prepared for that possibility.

Once I got to the campground, I did get a cell signal and called the park ranger I had left my contact information with. He confirmed that the weather was probably not going to deteriorate any further, and we talked at length about routing around the rime. It was his opinion that I should go back down the way I came, and probably the best decision I made was following his advice on that score.

I got through it. It was scary. The trail was steeper than I'd care for and the ice made it a difficult climb up and down. Thankfully, the weather actually improved as I was descending and I made it back to the car by dark.

I'd probably make a different decision next time. Maybe later, after I've had more experience in better conditions, I'll be in a better position to take some chances, but I'll be in a much better position to add up the pro's and cons.

Thanks all, for the advice.

Cheers,
Buckwheat

[JAK]

I just looked it up. Mount Greylock is 3491 feet. For me that's a good size.
I get nosebleeds just going inland from the coast a little. Well done. Thanks for the write-up.
Keep pushing the envelope, but not too far or in too many directions at once. :)

Remember if you figure out good clothing for bad conditions its a really good fallback when other stuff goes awry. The right footgear is always a tough call in winter though. Cheers.

[Egads]

It is a good practice to always carry shelter (tent), insulation (pad & bag), rain gear, headlamp, food, and a stove if there is any danger of hypothermia. Especially for unknown locations or unstable weather. It might save someone's life.

[buckwheat]

That's good advice Egads. At the time, I was carrying an emergency biv sack, sleeping bag (no pad however), rain gear, maglite, cold food, and the ability to make fire. So, I was missing a couple of components of the gear that, really, I should have had in my pack before making a hike of this type. There was plenty of shelter at the top where I was heading.

I did not have all the equipment I should have had. And you won't catch this Boy Scout unprepared next time, that's for sure. But if I would have had to bivouac at the campground, there was plenty of shelter to be had. I even found 4-sided shelter in the form of an unlocked ranger contact station. I could have crashed there for a good week, if need be.

If I had been unsure of the shelter situation at the campground I would tucked tail at the first sign of clouds in the sky (I hope) since I did not have a tent or pad with me (both were on order, but hadn't been delivered yet.)

Seems to me I heard someplace that when the crapola hits the fan ... find, in this order:

* Shelter
* Water
* Heat
* Food

I had all those things, at least, going for me!