View Full Version : What’s the rate of inflation of the AT?
john gault
09-29-2010, 15:24
The AT has begun and ended in the same places for a while now, yet it keeps getting longer. We all understand that no one truly knows the actual length and it does change year-to-year due to reroutes… However, it seems to be growing longer every year.
When I did my thru-hike in 2006 the common answer for length was between 2175-2176. I haven’t really tracked the length of it over the years, but today while at the outfitter I thumbed through the 2010 Thru-hiker’s Companion and noticed it had a distance of 2179.1 and that’s supported by the ATC here http://www.appalachiantrail.org/site/c.mqLTIYOwGlF/b.4805401/k.8865/About_the_Trail.htm
I’m curious what the rate of expansion is and when will it, if ever, stop?
Re-routing and property acquisition to eliminate road walks are probably the reasons. Also, maybe more accurate readings due to GPS technology contributes to mileage changes.
FlyPaper
09-29-2010, 16:29
The AT has begun and ended in the same places for a while now, yet it keeps getting longer. We all understand that no one truly knows the actual length and it does change year-to-year due to reroutes… However, it seems to be growing longer every year.
When I did my thru-hike in 2006 the common answer for length was between 2175-2176. I haven’t really tracked the length of it over the years, but today while at the outfitter I thumbed through the 2010 Thru-hiker’s Companion and noticed it had a distance of 2179.1 and that’s supported by the ATC here http://www.appalachiantrail.org/site/c.mqLTIYOwGlF/b.4805401/k.8865/About_the_Trail.htm
I’m curious what the rate of expansion is and when will it, if ever, stop?
As someone said, reroutes. A reroute can increase or decrease the overall trail distance. I think the trend favors increased distance since it is more common to use or add switchbacks these days in order to make the grade a little kinder.
You can see the distance between points for 2010 at http://www.atdist.com . This site also has the 2009 distance available. The overall distance in 2009 was 2178.3. Thus the increase for 2010 was 0.8 miles.
john gault
09-30-2010, 13:59
Some interesting comparisons. I got directions from google to BSP using the following address Baxter State Park Ashland, Me. 04732 from two locations (Amicalola State Park and Key West, Fl. Airport) using various modes of travel, i.e. car, walking, bicycle. This is what I got:
(Note: some gave me multiple routes; I always picked the furthest)
Amicalola State Park to BSP
Car 1,435 miles; Walking 1,354 miles; Bike 1,549 miles
Key West, Fl Airport to BSP
Car 2,007 miles; Walking 1,925 miles; Bike 2,144 miles
That's a lot of weaving we do on the trail. Of course I'm sure there's some error involved. I didn't look at the route too close and I'm kind of curious why there's such a difference between walking and cycling...Maybe later...
Some interesting comparisons. I got directions from google to BSP using the following address Baxter State Park Ashland, Me. 04732 from two locations (Amicalola State Park and Key West, Fl. Airport) using various modes of travel, i.e. car, walking, bicycle. This is what I got:
(Note: some gave me multiple routes; I always picked the furthest)
Amicalola State Park to BSP
Car 1,435 miles; Walking 1,354 miles; Bike 1,549 miles
Key West, Fl Airport to BSP
Car 2,007 miles; Walking 1,925 miles; Bike 2,144 miles
That's a lot of weaving we do on the trail. Of course I'm sure there's some error involved. I didn't look at the route too close and I'm kind of curious why there's such a difference between walking and cycling...Maybe later...
I've always thought it is interesting that there are a few places you walk uphill for more than 10 miles.
There is also the thinking that you don't "reduce the resource". That is, you don't want to do anything that will make (or appear to make) less of the resource you are managing. How can something be "valuable" if it's OK to have less of it? This is mostly government-think, where tangible resources like money and staff hours are allocated by some metric (square miles, trail miles, etc).
Cosmo
atraildreamer
10-01-2010, 15:30
As the earth heats up due to global warming both the oceans and land expand slightly (as do all heated materials) thus causing the lengthening of the AT. :-?
(If you believe this... contact me for my special deal on dehydrated water!) :banana
As the earth heats up due to global warming both the oceans and land expand slightly (as do all heated materials) thus causing the lengthening of the AT. :-?
(If you believe this... contact me for my special deal on dehydrated water!) :banana
Is the AT shorter in the winter then? :p
john gault
10-01-2010, 16:16
Well we all know the earth bulges out slightly due to centrifugal force developed from its rotation. So, I was thinking that it maybe an indication that the earth is bulging out a little more each year – should this concern us?
LIhikers
10-01-2010, 17:53
Well we all know the earth bulges out slightly due to centrifugal force developed from its rotation. So, I was thinking that it maybe an indication that the earth is bulging out a little more each year – should this concern us?
Not until the north and south pole switch places, then I'll be concerned about the earth bulging.
max patch
10-01-2010, 18:26
Well we all know the earth bulges out slightly due to centrifugal force developed from its rotation. So, I was thinking that it maybe an indication that the earth is bulging out a little more each year – should this concern us?
2012 is coming.
Just some thoughts. I strongly doubt if ATC ever actually measured the trail. But the ATC figures are almost certainly the most accurate available. Del Doc a few years ago walked most of the trail with a GPS as an ATC volunteer.
But the basic mileage figures are those submitted to ATC by the 30 or so maintaining clubs. Originally, the club mileage reports were based on the use of a measuring wheel. A measuring wheel is as the name implies is a device that is pushed along the trail and uses a mechanical counter to record the mileage foot by foot.
IN my opinion a wheel remains the most accurate measuring device for a woodland trail. Most clubs, however, these days probably use a GPS device, which, if my understanding of the technology is correct, should result in shorter measurements, not longer, since it almost certainly averages out distances between two points.
So the expansion has to be based on corrections of past human errors, or real life expansions of the trail through relocations.
Weary
TheYoungOne
10-03-2010, 23:25
2012 is coming.
So I guess a 2013 thru hike might not happen :eek:
double d
10-03-2010, 23:46
As the earth heats up due to global warming both the oceans and land expand slightly (as do all heated materials) thus causing the lengthening of the AT. :-?
(If you believe this... contact me for my special deal on dehydrated water!) :banana
I'm not gonna lie to you, you had me a for a "second", as I was thinking, by God, he's right, heated "things" do expand, but snapped out of it.:eek::sun
Originally, the club mileage reports were based on the use of a measuring wheel. A measuring wheel is as the name implies is a device that is pushed along the trail and uses a mechanical counter to record the mileage foot by foot.
IN my opinion a wheel remains the most accurate measuring device for a woodland trail. Most clubs, however, these days probably use a GPS device, which, if my understanding of the technology is correct, should result in shorter measurements, not longer, since it almost certainly averages out distances between two points.
I've compared wheeled distances to GPS measurements of the same sections and the wheeled distance can be up to 5% longer in seriously rocky terrain, section by section (of the PA MST, where the wheel ticks meter by meter of course).
While climbing Katahdin last month it occurred to me to wonder how that was measured for length.
I've compared wheeled distances to GPS measurements of the same sections and the wheeled distance can be up to 5% longer in seriously rocky terrain, section by section (of the PA MST, where the wheel ticks meter by meter of course).
While climbing Katahdin last month it occurred to me to wonder how that was measured for length.
Myron Avery hisself wheeled the section in the early 30s. Somewhere around here I have a photo of Avery and his wheel on the summit.
Weary
wcgornto
10-04-2010, 21:48
Last year, my SOBO hike was officially 2178.3, During my hike, I went past crews who were putting switchbacks in on the south side of Whitecap in ME. Then much further south, I hiked new switchbacks just south of the Overmountain and Stan Murray shelters. These two switchback sections alone could account for the difference between 2178.3 and 2179.1.
4eyedbuzzard
10-04-2010, 21:58
My understanding is that when using GPS they use an algorithm (fudge factor) to correct for the difference between GPS and wheel measured distances when computing the distances for the AT - which is supposed to be stated in "wheel distance" in the ATC guides.
atraildreamer
10-06-2010, 16:53
2012 is coming.
Great movie. Especially liked the part when California slid into the Pacific. Solved Arnold's deficit problem! :eek:
Woody Harrelson's scene at the Yellowstone caldera rates an Oscar nomination, IMHO. :banana
If the poles shift, does that mean all the NOBOs are now SOBOs, and vice -versa? Will the resulting mile-high tsunami wave take out the AT? :-? :confused:
DBRIGGS9
10-13-2010, 23:58
As the earth heats up due to global warming both the oceans and land expand slightly (as do all heated materials) thus causing the lengthening of the AT. :-?
(If you believe this... contact me for my special deal on dehydrated water!) :banana
well then I'm waiting a couple more years, until this whole expanding thing stops and reverses before i do my thru hike. don't want to hike anymore miles than i have to.
DBRIGGS9
10-14-2010, 00:14
Just saw the original poster is from atlantic beach. I'm right down the street, live right by the Beach Blvd and St Johns Bluff intersection. Me and my roommate are gonna go out to ocala national forest to do some weekend trips once it cools down a little more. always nice to meet new hikers if you ever want to join
It's that darn obesity epidemic. Causes the miles to expand.
It's that darn obesity epidemic. Causes the miles to expand.
I think it's because we are all getting older. I've lost some fat, but the miles still get longer with each passing year.
atraildreamer
12-26-2010, 13:15
Not until the north and south pole switch places, then I'll be concerned about the earth bulging.
If this happens during a through hike it could give a whole new meaning to the the term "flip-flop hike". :-?
mweinstone
12-26-2010, 14:13
when damascus kicks us out its gonna be longer.
john gault
12-13-2011, 09:02
I've heard the AT grew some more again this year, according to the 2012 Databook. I haven't seen it yet, but read that it's now 2184.2.
The standard answer for this is reroutes, but why is it that it always results in an increase? Seems like someone gave a pretty good answer for this once, but I can't remember...
Generally I think they're taking the trail that goes straight up hill and switchbacking it to prevent erosion. A perfect example would be the trail from Carvers Gap north which was rerouted several years ago.
john gault
12-13-2011, 13:41
Well, if conversion of various sections to switchback is the basic answer, which kind of makes sense, then the question becomes...When will the inflation stop and how much will it add, when all areas are converted? I understand trail maintenance is never-ending, just curious how many sections the various clubs want to convert to the ideal switchback route. (I know there's no answer to this question, but can't help it, it still pops in my head).:confused:
There is also the thinking that you don't "reduce the resource". That is, you don't want to do anything that will make (or appear to make) less of the resource you are managing. How can something be "valuable" if it's OK to have less of it? This is mostly government-think, where tangible resources like money and staff hours are allocated by some metric (square miles, trail miles, etc). Cosmo
I don't know of any evidence that "governments" ever measured the Appalachian Trail. All the measurements I've observed have been done by a volunteer maintainer pushing a measuring wheel, or walking with a GPS device. (A wheel is more accurate in my experience.)
Anyway, all the measurements are sent to the Appalachian Trail Conservancy, which adds them all up and corrects its figures annually. The trail keeps getting longer because maintainers keep trying to make the trail more and more hiker friendly by bypassing roads, and installing switchbacks. The length will continue to grow as long as the trail continues to be maintained by volunteers who tend not to be satisfied with just "good enough."
rocketsocks
12-13-2011, 17:31
Clearly the reason is "erosion"(in the valley's)that the distance keeps changing.
well then I'm waiting a couple more years, until this whole expanding thing stops and reverses before i do my thru hike. don't want to hike anymore miles than i have to.
I'm waiting until the next ice age when I'll do the first ever thru ice skate of the AT.
I’m curious what the rate of expansion is and when will it, if ever, stop?
Looks like .07%/yr
Sarcasm the elf
12-14-2011, 11:51
Generally I think they're taking the trail that goes straight up hill and switchbacking it to prevent erosion. A perfect example would be the trail from Carvers Gap north which was rerouted several years ago.. This may be the case, but personally I think that maintaining clubs keep rerouting the trail just to mess with all the purists that are obsessed with "official" routes and distances. ;-)
A decade ago (2001) the AT was 2168.1 miles long. So it's grown an average of 1.3 miles a year to its 2011 length of 2081.0 miles. Bob Peoples, and the Tennessee Eastman Hiking Club, has been responsible for a lot of this. For instance, the stretch of trail from Spivey Gap to Damascus that they are responsible for has grown in length from 132.0 miles in 2005 to 135.7 miles (a 3.7 mile total) in 2011 during a time when the entire trail has grown 6.1 miles. If every maintaining club was as hard working about moving the AT off of badly eroded straight-shot trail (through hard trail construction work) to better designed trail, the AT would be experiencing some really serious inflation.
fudgefoot
12-15-2011, 06:51
In 2003 the official distance was 2173.9 miles. In 2010 it was 2179.1. That equates to a rate of inflation of 0.0341% per year. At that rate, in 100 years the trail will be 2255 miles long.
One more reason not to delay your hike.