2014 Snow levels chatter

[frisbeefreek]

It's not too early to start forecasting the snow pack levels. Just saw Governor Jerry Brown declared "worst drought in 100 years".

http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/r.../PLOT_SWC.2014

Snow levels in the Sierras are barely registering on the radar. Sure, several big storms could come along and dump 20 feet, but it looks like this will be a great year to start in late-February (/sarcasm).

OTOH, the Cascades look like they are at 200% of normal snow levels, so maybe a mid-May start makes more sense. Oh my, what's a hiker to do.

Looks like it will be an interesting bi-polar year.

I wonder when the first JMT hiker will finish?

[Sasquatch!]

It will really hurt your baseweight, but I suggest all PCT hikers carry full firefighter gear. California is already aflame. If you dont burn up by Oregon you can look forward to 900 miles of postholing up to your forehead.

See you out there.

[rangeley]

Up to your forehead! holy cow thats a funny image
on a side note i was skiing one day and stepped off trail to conduct a safety meeting with some friends and sank up to my armpits in a tree well. Serious laughter ensued

[enyapjr]

OTOH, the Cascades look like they are at 200% of normal snow levels, so maybe a mid-May start makes more sense. Oh my, what's a hiker to do.

I don't know what 'reports' you're getting "200% of normal" from, but the USDA NRCS Oregon & Washington SNOTEL sites in the Cascades certainly don't agree. I couldn't find any OR sites close to being up to normal to date, and only a very few WA sites (farthest North) at near normal to date - and definitely nothing at two times the 'normal'...
Granted there's still a better chance for at least WA to get much more snow this winter - OR less so, and CA has a very poor prediction outlook for much precip clear through April.

Happy trails!!!
Jim (PITA)

[Dogwood]

We can chit chat and forecast about PCT Sierras snow levels all we want right now but it is still too early to say with any good degree of accuracy what it will be like for PCTers heading into the Sierras in May right now.

[Dogwood]

I would also be mindful of the perspective of various articles you read in regards to snowpack because some relate this beta from the angle of water availability to places like LA which might make a hiker equate their slant/perspective with conditions on the ground as a hiker. What do you think Ca Gov Jerry Brown is mainly interested when he's quoted as saying "worst drought in 100 years?" I strongly doubt when he made that statement he had PCT thru-hikers in mind going through the Sierras in late may/ early June.

[Slo-go'en]

If much of the PCT remains a tinder box, I'd be packing a couple of industrial strength dust masks just in case you get caught in some thick smoke from a big burn. I've pretty much lost any interest in hiking out west due to this worsening problem. I'd really hate to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Be really careful out there !

[enyapjr]

I would also be mindful of the perspective of various articles you read in regards to snowpack because some relate this beta from the angle of water availability to places like LA which might make a hiker equate their slant/perspective with conditions on the ground as a hiker. What do you think Ca Gov Jerry Brown is mainly interested when he's quoted as saying "worst drought in 100 years?" I strongly doubt when he made that statement he had PCT thru-hikers in mind going through the Sierras in late may/ early June.

Of course 'nobody' is very interested in PCT thrus - we are but a very tiny drop in a normally full bucket... Most of the western 'snow' reporting sites do deal directly with the future availability of water & that is why the agency sites are continually funded, but it doesn't mean that hikers cannot utilize the same information even though the data is more concerned with the water supply, of which the biggest user in CA is agriculture - mostly in the Sacramento & San Joaquin Valleys... In CA the snowpack is the water supply, and this will be the third year in a row with well below average snowpack... I don't take much stock in many 'news' reports (usually 'sensationalized'), but do take stock of the scientific data and the improved long range forecasting - and evidently so does the CA governor... On Jan.16th, NOAA's NWS Climate Prediction Center released the latest 1 month (Feb.) & 3 month (Feb/Mar/Apr) outlooks which predict below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures for most of CA - that with an already record low snowpack for this time of year... No matter how many storms do come through before mid May there is no way it can build up to a near normal snowpack depth - and none of the various computer simulations show any significant chain of storms needed to do so through April (April 1st is the average maximum snowpack - whether measured as 'depth' or 'water content')... All that said, it does NOT mean that there won't be any snow for the thrus - but rather not much of it left at all in early June.

Happy trails!!!
Jim (PITA)

[Snowleopard]

Snow cover 2013 vs 2014.

[Sasquatch!]

As enyapjr pointed out with the NOAA prediction chart for feb, mar, april, unless we get a miracle and NOAA is off, which they usually are pretty spot on, this will be the lowest snow year ever for the PCT. Its not too early.

Cali is going to burn, and water sources will be iffy.

[Dogwood]

I understand the trends. I agree with you. However, I don't approach local/regionalized weather forecasts, especially ones that are 4-5 months into the future as absolutes. Storm systems arise relatively quickly dropping several feet of snow in the Sierras unexpectedly certainly in April and sometimes May. It has been known to snow in the Sierras every month of the yr. Lingering colder Spring Sierras weather affects melt rates regardless how much snowpack. This affects trail and hiking conditions. I view the forecast data as likelyhoods not absolutes. I would be ready to make adjustments based on trail conditions closer to the time when I'm expecting to hike through by being prepared to adjust my hiking agenda/kit based on what I feel most comfortable with. You're probably going to be right in your assessment though. But, things can and do change.

In 2011 the PCT was still under a few ft of snow continuously 8600 > ft elev all the way from Chester Ca SOBO to Echo Lake CA(southern end of lake Tahoe) in mid June(started June 12 at Chester) on a section hike of the PCT I was trying to do. The few NOBO PCTers I started encountered around Quincy CA ALL had relied on GPS and/or had skipped some PCT sections and were planning on going back to hike those skipped sections. That was about 2 yrs ago or 2 PCT NOBO thru-hiking seasons ago.

More and more PCTers attempt to pin down the Sierras weather conditions/snow conditions further and further in long term advance each yr for late May. I guess it's the need felt by some that we need to know everything pertaining to a thru-hike pre hike in order to thru-hike. I follow the trends too but I'm not about to ignore other possible weather condition scenarios preparation that can arise on short notice.

[Dogwood]

If the snowpack levels don't pick up ohhh Cali will be DRY.

[frisbeefreek]

I'd be curious as to which water sources are affected by "dry" years. My memory is getting dusty, but for the most part, all the water sources I remember were pretty robust (in 2009) - Not sure a drought would have affected them (I usually did big carries to skip iffy sources - Campo-->Morena, Rodriguez-->Barrel for examples, so maybe I missed the seasonal ones). For instance, will Barrel Springs dry up (I don't know the answer - just asking)?

[Dogwood]

IMHO, there's no substitute for PCT specific up to date (the most recent) water reports for on trail drinking water for So Cal and the local in the know specific water sources available to PCTers as that info was presented at the Kick Off and as I updated it in route in towns. I can't applaud enough the informed efforts of the many PCT supporters/presenters/trail angels that I met at the KO that I gained so much PCT water info from. They really have provided an EXCELLENT resource to PCTers. Can't say enough good things about the KO and what I've learned through attending.

Someone(s) with much better more perhaps more reliable local information about Barrel Spring will prolly chime in but I think it's a rather reliable water source for PCTers.

[Dogwood]

Barrel Springs is piped into a large trough so it's my guess it's reliable.

[Malto]

I'd be curious as to which water sources are affected by "dry" years. My memory is getting dusty, but for the most part, all the water sources I remember were pretty robust (in 2009) - Not sure a drought would have affected them (I usually did big carries to skip iffy sources - Campo-->Morena, Rodriguez-->Barrel for examples, so maybe I missed the seasonal ones). For instance, will Barrel Springs dry up (I don't know the answer - just asking)?

Even if barrel springs is dry it is 8.9 miles into Warner Springs. That would be a better scenario than having the cache empty at Sissors crossing and third? Gate.

[Dogwood]

I think the Scissors crossing cache, since it's on the highway, does somewhat get regularly checked up on and restocked. It's a rather important cache too right before the HOT exposed traverse going NOBO. There's sometimes that other water cache on that dirt road after/near the end of the traverse though going NOBO.

[10-K]

I'm tired of worrying about it one way or the other. I'm going to show up at Campo, start walking north, and not stop until something stops me or I'm done.

What will be will be....

[Dogwood]

LOL. Was that a 10-K circuit breaker I heard pop. Sounds like you're on PCT information overload.

Wait until you get to the CDT logistics. LOL

[10-K]

Yup. That's what that was.

I'm going to send a mail drop to Mt. Laguna and figure it out from there. That's my resupply plan.