Completion rate

[10-K]

Just saw this on the PCTA website that between 700-800 hikers attempt a thru hike each year with a 60% completion rate. That's astonishing!

[moytoy]

That is astonishing. If that number is accurate It would seem that PCT hikers are very committed to the hike.

[Zippy Morocco]

I think is shows how easy the PCT is.
Of course I am joking. Those numbers surprised me when I first saw them too. My money would be on PCT hikers being prepared and experienced. Right out of the gate you have a 20 mile walk with no reliable water source, you really need to be prepared for that. On the AT that would be Springer to Woody Gap.

[Jeff]

That number is indeed a surprise. Every year I read about hikers getting shut out of the Canadian border due to snow and ice in Washington state during October.

[max patch]

Might be just a lot more liars.

[Razor]

Also keep in mind , that more experienced hikers start the PCT . The romantics ,Theorians, and uneducated start the ATC and that is why the drop out rate at 32 miles miles is greater than 15%.% .

[10-K]

I do think there is a correlation between experience and completion rates but thru hiking the PCT as a first long trail hike is not so uncommon as to be rare. I'm expecting the scenery is a fairly good motivator to keep going.

And there are fewer places to quit. I'd be willing to bet that a lot of people who bail on their AT hikes regret it as soon as they get home and rest for a day or so.

[Colter]

I'm skeptical that the completion rate is actually 60%, yet it seems clear that the completion rate is higher on the PCT than the AT.

The PCT is often less demoralizing than the AT. Rain is a huge mental factor for many and it tends to be much less of an issue early on the PCT compared to the AT.

According to this survey of over 100 people, the PCT was the first long hike for 71%!

[Colter]

According to this survey...also it looks like the completion rate for that group was 46%.

[apd07c]

The PCT is often less demoralizing than the AT. Rain is a huge mental factor for many and it tends to be much less of an issue early on the PCT compared to the AT.

I think this is a huge factor.

[Sierra2015]

I originally wanted to thru-hike the PCT but decided against it since the AT is better for a new backpacker.

[10-K]

According to this survey...also it looks like the completion rate for that group was 46%.

This guy has a nice blog, thanks for that link.

[Dogwood]

I don't find these completion percentages unreal, a fabrication of lies, or a surprise. PCT thru-hikers as compared to AT thru-hikers are overall more experienced, largely as a group having hiked elsewhere already typically having done a thru-hike(long distance hike) somewhere else, they know they like long distance hiking! The PCT doesn't attract as many first time I wanna be a long distance hikers/thru-hikers. The PCT compared to the AT is less well known both here in N. America and globally so doesn't attract the attention of so many first timers. It's recognized in the more advanced kits PCTers carry and the knowledge they apply to their hikes. Different hiking community on the PCT compared to the AT. Of course we can analyze the greater PCT thru-hiker rates from all sorts of other perspectives such as easier terrain at the start for NOBOers, fairer weather(less rain), terrain, etc but IMHO the main reasons why PCT thruhiker completion rates are so much higher, like 4 to 6 X the AT thru-hiker completion rates, is because of the more experienced PCT thru-hiking community.

[garbanz]

The only thing I ever heard about hiking when I was growing up was the AT. Later on after I read on it in National Geographic years ago I knew it was something I had to do. I did it in 2011. I planned the AT, I will do much less if Im able to finish the PCT.

[Miner]

Rather then the completion rate, I'm more surprised at the total number of people attempting. In 2009, the number was around 400 after being 300 for several years.

On the PCT, I met more hikers that had done a thru-hike before then what I later saw on the AT; though I also met a guy whom the PCT was his first backpacking trip (and he finished!). Because most people aren't strong enough to do the larger miles required on the PCT with the typical pack weight you see on the AT, they typically have much lighter packs. Having views on the PCT is the norm so the reward level is high for the effort put in. While rain is possible anywhere on the PCT, you likely won't see much before Washington. I only used my tarp for 9 days total (4 of it at the very end due to snow). I also think people do more planning for the PCT then is normal on the AT so more at least know what to expect at the beginning.

[bamboo bob]

More like 50% at Neels Gap. But I'm not surprised by the PCT completion rate. The PCT is easier day to day than the AT. Which is way it takes 5 months even though it's 500 miles longer. But mainly the vast majority of hikers have experience. Very few newbies. I never met one at least.

[garlic08]

I think that number has risen in the decade since I hiked the PCT (as my first long hike (well, not counting the measly little Colorado Trail)). I heard back then from a pretty good source (Weathercarrot, remember him?) that the completion rate was about 25%, which was still quite a bit higher, I think, than the AT's rate was at that time.

I agree with what's been said repeatedly above, that there's a different kind of hiker on the PCT. It's harder to get to, for one thing, for most of the population of the country, and requires more of a commitment just to start. If you do any kind of planning at all, you'll realize you're in for 20+ mile water carries and 100+ mile food carries as a norm, right off the bat, and you tend to try to get into shape for that.

I think a lot of the first-time hikers on the PCT are from the Left Coast or the Rocky Mt states and are familiar with the conditions. That was my case--after hiking the CT, I really didn't want to put myself through a green tunnel in the Eastern summer--so go for the PCT! I hiked with quite a few Californians, also rookies but dedicated section hikers familiar with much of the trail.

[Coffee]

I wonder whether Wild will result in the number of attempted thru hikes exceeding 1,000 next year. But I can't imagine that the trail will feel that crowded after everyone falls into various paces and some of the less prepared hikers drop out.

[Spirit Walker]

Because the thruhike starting window is small, the trail can feel very crowded at times. Mostly in town or at the hostels, where you can have more than 50 at once, but even back in 2000, we were meeting a lot of people on the trail every day, even up north. Of course, part of that is the fact that you go through Oregon and Washington at prime hiking season, so there are a lot of short term hikers and horsepeople.

It used to be the success rate was about 50%, but it depended heavily on the snow levels. A low snow year would mean 60% success, a high snow year 30 or 40%.

[Malto]

There are many different numbers, 40% seems to be the most common. My year 2011 was supposedly 28%. The last two years could be higher with lower snow but even that was likely offset by the "wild" factor and the increasing numbers.