Fair warning--winter storm warning for the Southern Appalachians

[Alleghanian Orogeny]

Hikers should be aware of the high country forecast for the southwest VA, western NC, and eastmost TN, over the next 48-72 hours: Rain, wind, followed by snow and wind. Accumulations up to 3-6", subfreezing overnight lows, and winds of 20-30 mph, gusting to +50 mph, along the western facing upslope areas, which is essentially the entire NC-TN border.

Hopefully we won't see any post-Sandy "gee, the forecast for (insert low-elevation city) didn't say anything about snow, subfreezing temps, and gale force winds" reports from affected hikers.

Refer to www.raysweather.com for more details.

AO

[saltysack]

Wish I could go out...sounds like a good time to be out!! Less the freezing rain...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Gambit McCrae]

Think it will hit Deep Gap to Tray Mountain Area?

[Alleghanian Orogeny]

I'm not a weatherman, I don't play one on TV, and I did not sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

That said, look at the forecast: This is a large and powerful system, so a reasonably informed person would likely assume widespread effects. Given the forecast center of the low being along the NC-VA line, well east of the mountains, as the time of its primary development on Friday/Friday night, perhaps points far to the southwest would not be as affected as points more due west of the low. But I sure wouldn't bet the farm on anything other then a detailed study of a highly localized forecast. Sandy damn near killed some people along the AT. This doesn't look like a Sandy II, but gale force winds and subfreezing temps visited upon a soaking wet individual kills plenty of them every year.

AO

[illabelle]

Here in the Knoxville area, we haven't even had frost yet, and there's snow in the forecast tomorrow night!!??!!??
Temperatures aren't supposed to be all that low, so I imagine it will be flurries, maybe a little slush down here in the valley. Nice way to start November!

[AO2134]

So I guess I am going to freeze to death this weekend. I will be in the foothills trail freezing my butt off.

[Gambit McCrae]

I will be on the AT in your parts A02134, But will not be freezing between the Fireball whiskey, and my arctic size OR down Jacket, Blackrock beanie, and montbell super spiral down hugger #0 I will be snug as a bug in the ol shelter. Cant wait!

[daddytwosticks]

I did my last section hike of the season last weekend. I'm not a fan of sleeping out in below freezing temps. I will, however, venture out for some day hikes over the next few months if the weather and life's obligations cooperate.

[Slo-go'en]

Haven't seen the sun up here in the Whites for close to 2 weeks now. Been raining pretty much the whole time. Every so often the clouds will lift just enough to see the summits are getting white. Now their calling for a Nor'easter. Great. I still haven't fully winterized my water supply. Been waiting for a nice day, guess that's not gonna happen.

[johnnybgood]

Sounds like it's time to get out the Kahtoola spikes : www.accuweather.com is calling for 4-8 inches of snow this weekend for Big Meadows in SNP .

[maptester]

Think it will hit Deep Gap to Tray Mountain Area?

Spot forecast for Tray Mtn Shelter area:

• Friday Night A chance of rain and snow showers before 3am, then a chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
• Saturday A chance of snow showers, mainly before noon, then a chance for flurries. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Windy, with a northwest wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
• Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 29. Northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
• Sunday Sunny, with a high near 50.

[Ox97GaMe]

People around the Smokies are getting stupid. I have heard 'rumors' of up to 20 inches of snow in the high country. I have to see it to believe it. Temps have been in the 60s and 70s all week here. any snow that might come is likely to melt as fast as it hits the ground. May stick to the trees and shelter roofs, but not on the warm ground. Latest forecast Ive seen for the Knoxville area is as follows:

Light dusting in the valley with up to 3 inches at the higher elevations.

The bigger concern that the GSMNP has right now is the potential for freezing rain and ice. The trees still have most of their leaves on them, so any ice will likely create widow-makers out in the woods.

Anyone headed out on the AT (or any other trails) in this region over the weekend please be careful.

happy hiking.....

[10-K]

Was planning to hike a 140 mile section of Mountains to Sea trail tomorrow but decided to wait until Sunday...

[misprof]

I am glad I did Mount Rogers area last weekend as the wind then was making me walk like a drunken sailor. Be careful out there.

[ZeRoCoOl]

Lets do this!

[Studlintsean]

Sounds like it's time to get out the Kahtoola spikes : www.accuweather.com is calling for 4-8 inches of snow this weekend for Big Meadows in SNP .

Johnnybgood- where are you seeing that report? All I can find is saying rain. I might venture out for the first flurry of the year if I can confirm it will be snow and not freeing rain. Thanks in advance

[Slo-go'en]

Johnnybgood- where are you seeing that report? All I can find is saying rain. I might venture out for the first flurry of the year if I can confirm it will be snow and not freeing rain. Thanks in advance

Sounds like there will be a little bit of everything depending on where (and how high) you are. We'll be lucky to get much of anything from this up here in great north woods.

[Coffee]

I use this link for SNP weather but it targets 2,000 feet:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LWX/RECLWX

I am thinking about a day hike on Sunday but my idea of Old Rag may be the wrong hike if there is snow or ice. Maybe something in the north district would work out better.

[importman77]

Was planning to hike a 140 mile section of Mountains to Sea trail tomorrow but decided to wait until Sunday...

10k, you are without a doubt the fastest hiker I've ever heard of!

[10-K]

... wait until Sunday -to start-. ...

Now I'm not sure about that.. If the max falls it'll be over 10". The MST goes over the summit of Mt. Mitchell - I hate to think how much could be up there.