Suspect Wanted for Violent Crime on the AT!

[full conditions]

I think it is great for you to share your opinion on the wisdom of carrying a firearm on the Trail, and I respect that the majority of hikers would agree with you. That said, I would strongly disagree that those who do are "frightened in life".

Facts can be troubling, but five thru hikers (yes, thru hikers) have been murdered on the AT proper.

Molly LaRue, 25, from Shaker Heights, Ohio
Geoffrey Hood, 26, from Signal Mountain, Tennessee
Susan Ramsey, 27 from Ellsworth Maine
Robert Mountford, 27, from Ellsworth, Maine
Janice Balza, 22, from Madison, Wisconsin

I didn't include Joel Polsom, 26, of Hartsville, South Carolina because I wasn't 100% sure he was a thru hiker or not. Some reports say he was and others are less clear on that point.

Six very tragic events. The ATC estimates that about 12,000 folks have hike the entire trail. That makes a murder rate of about 0.5% - compared with the 4.8% rate for the entire country. There have been other murders on the trail that didn't involve thru hikers but then our statistics need to include total number of section and day hikers which probably (just my guess) hovers around the same as the murder rate for thru hikers. If I lived in a country where the murder rate was 0.5%, I'd feel pretty safe. I think ultimately it depends on the person - some folks never feel safe and statistically rare incidents like this only tend to reinforce that bias.

[Dochartaigh]

Six very tragic events. The ATC estimates that about 12,000 folks have hike the entire trail. That makes a murder rate of about 0.5% - compared with the 4.8% rate for the entire country.

To play devil's advocate: What would the statistics of people murdered only in very remote areas of the country be? (i.e. remove the statistics from all urban areas from that 4.8% murder rate). Compare that rate with the murders which happened to thru hikers (which to be honest would probably be impossible to calculate), but I'll bet you the number could very well be higher for thru hikers than people living in very remote parts of the country... More dangerous or not, who really knows, just playing some statistical mind games here...

[full conditions]

To play devil's advocate: What would the statistics of people murdered only in very remote areas of the country be? (i.e. remove the statistics from all urban areas from that 4.8% murder rate). Compare that rate with the murders which happened to thru hikers (which to be honest would probably be impossible to calculate), but I'll bet you the number could very well be higher for thru hikers than people living in very remote parts of the country... More dangerous or not, who really knows, just playing some statistical mind games here...

My guess is that its probably much lower for thru hikers. Most murders are committed by people who knew their victim (friends, family members, etc.) and this is especially true in rural areas and there are simply fewer opportunities for that to happen on the AT. Also, I did not include in that 0.05 percent statistic the numbers of people who hiked most of the trail and dropped out for whatever reason (being murdered not one of them) - then that percent gets way smaller. People fear violent crime regardless of probability statistics - its a visceral reaction that has little to do with reason or probability. Which, I should point out that I dont mean to sound judge-y here - I have plenty of my own unreasonable fears - just not this one

[rickb]

Facts would be more useful in evaluating risk (and perhaps less troubling) with some context. How many thru hikers were not murdered on the trail in the same period as the six listed in your post?

Good question/point.

Since 1974 approximately 50,000 people have attempted a thru hike and about 12,000 of them went on to hike the entire Trail and register as "2000 Milers".

To me it is sobering to think that for every 2000 thru hikers who register as a 2000 miler, one thru hiker did not have that opportunity because he/she was killed by a complete stranger along the way.

Others take comfort with the idea that number of victims is so small, given the world we live in.

[Offshore]

Good question/point.

Since 1974 approximately 50,000 people have attempted a thru hike and about 12,000 of them went on to hike the entire Trail and register as "2000 Milers".

To me it is sobering to think that for every 2000 thru hikers who register as a 2000 miler, one thru hiker did not have that opportunity because he/she was killed by a complete stranger along the way.

Others take comfort with the idea that number of victims is so small, given the world we live in.

Not taking comfort in the loss of even a single life, but since the number will never be zero, one needs a sense of perspective. Probably the biggest risks of injury or death a thru-hiker may face are the ride to/from the trail or the hitched ride in the back of a pickup. Falls in the bathroom are another big cause of injury/death, (so look at that privy and embrace hiker stink with a new sense of appreciation, people). Here in NJ, I view my biggest trail risks as driving to the trailhead and back, ticks carrying Lyme, and our growing bear population. (Don't get me started on the prohibition on bear spray here in NJ).

[rickb]

Not taking comfort in the loss of even a single life, but since the number will never be zero, one needs a sense of perspective. Probably the biggest risks of injury or death a thru-hiker may face are the ride to/from the trail or the hitched ride in the back of a pickup. Falls in the bathroom are another big cause of injury/death, (so look at that privy and embrace hiker stink with a new sense of appreciation, people). Here in NJ, I view my biggest trail risks as driving to the trailhead and back, ticks carrying Lyme, and our growing bear population. (Don't get me started on the prohibition on bear spray here in NJ).

True, but I cannot help but wonder how different the discussion would be if:

6 Thru hikers were killed by bears on the AT

or

6 Thru hikers drowned crossing rivers in the HMW

or


6 Thru hikers were killed by lightening on the AT

etc.


My guess is that if 6 they hikers were killed in any of the above circumstances (and to be clear not a singe one has been) no one would look to put the tragedy into perspective. Rather we would talk about the specific circumstances, and then work hard to learn from them.

[full conditions]

Good question/point.

Since 1974 approximately 50,000 people have attempted a thru hike and about 12,000 of them went on to hike the entire Trail and register as "2000 Milers".

To me it is sobering to think that for every 2000 thru hikers who register as a 2000 miler, one thru hiker did not have that opportunity because he/she was killed by a complete stranger along the way.

Others take comfort with the idea that number of victims is so small, given the world we live in.

To be fair, it's really 6 out of 50 000. I don't find that fact comforting but I do see it as evidence that I have very little reason to worry about my safety especially compared to just about anywhere else.

[Offshore]

True, but I cannot help but wonder how different the discussion would be if:

6 Thru hikers were killed by bears on the AT

or

6 Thru hikers drowned crossing rivers in the HMW

or


6 Thru hikers were killed by lightening on the AT

etc.


My guess is that if 6 they hikers were killed in any of the above circumstances (and to be clear not a singe one has been) no one would look to put the tragedy into perspective. Rather we would talk about the specific circumstances, and then work hard to learn from them.

Probably very true. The difference being bad luck/judgement vs. malice.

[4eyedbuzzard]

To be fair, it's really 6 out of 50 000. I don't find that fact comforting but I do see it as evidence that I have very little reason to worry about my safety especially compared to just about anywhere else.

Well, the US homicide rate is 4.7 per 100,000, so 6 per 50,000 would tend to imply that the trail is twice as dangerous as the rest of the US on average. But that would be misleading in many ways. We'd really have to get into all the other data like how many "hiker nights" are spent on the trail by all overnight hikers each year (likely millions per year) as murderers aren't going to likely be able differentiate between thru-hikers and weekend warriors. There have been 11 or 12 murders associated with hikers on or in close proximity to the AT (side trails connecting with the AT) since roughly 1970. Two were double homicide incidents, and if memory serves, all but one in one way or another involved women under age 30. I believe 10 or 11 of the twelve victims were women, and the man that was killed was with a woman. So the homicide rate itself is likely very low, well under 1 per million. The rate for young women travelling alone would be greater as they are more likely to be a victim and they represent a much lower percentage of overnight hikers. But I would still guesstimate that even that rate is way below the national homicide rate. And a lot of these incidents happened at/near shelters and where the trail was easily accessed by roads. The most dangerous places on the AT are where it comes closest to civilization and non-hikers, road crossings and shelters.

[full conditions]

True, but I cannot help but wonder how different the discussion would be if:

6 Thru hikers were killed by bears on the AT

or

6 Thru hikers drowned crossing rivers in the HMW

or


6 Thru hikers were killed by lightening on the AT

etc.


My guess is that if 6 they hikers were killed in any of the above circumstances (and to be clear not a singe one has been) no one would look to put the tragedy into perspective. Rather we would talk about the specific circumstances, and then work hard to learn from them.

It's funny (not ha ha funny) you should mention these other forms of premature deaths - thru hikers have died from vehicle accidents (I know of at least two prospective thrus that died that way); drowning (Kennebec River and Clarendon Gorge drownings come to mind - though they may not have been actual thru hikers); lightning - two hikers were killed at the Mount Collins shelter about 20 minutes after I left one afternoon in 1982 (I think); I am unaware of any bear related thru hiker deaths from bear attacks. As far as I'm aware, all of these deaths caused a lot of concern and analysis in the hiker community. In any case, hiker deaths seem somehow more tragic and horrible than deaths due to heart disease, auto accidents, or falling in the bath tub. The phenomenon is called selection bias and it colors how we see the world and react to events - you can see it in the media - we obsess over a climber death on Mount Everest but the thousands that die every day of dysentery pass without notice. I have a horror of dying in a cave. Alone, like that guy in Mammoth Cave in the 20's. If the six murders of thru hikers cause you a bit of wariness or some kind of precaution taking, I understand. I don't share your concern because the odds are so incredibly low, but I do understand.

[upstream]

Well, the US homicide rate is 4.7 per 100,000, so 6 per 50,000 would tend to imply that the trail is twice as dangerous as the rest of the US on average. But that would be misleading in many ways.

Well, the homicide rate for the us is 4.7 per 100,000 PER YEAR, so, if we put the AT trail homicides in perspective for all hikers, 12 per million (the ATC estimates the trail gets 2-3 million visitors per year) per 44 years (since the first murder) is .0136 per 100,000 per year, so, you are 344 times more likely to be murdered off the trail than on the trail.

Or, if you only consider the 50,000 thru hiker starts, then that is 6/50,000/44 or .28 per 100,000 per year so, you are 17 times more likely to be murdered if you are not thru-hiking.

64% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

[4eyedbuzzard]

Well, the homicide rate for the us is 4.7 per 100,000 PER YEAR, so, if we put the AT trail homicides in perspective for all hikers, 12 per million (the ATC estimates the trail gets 2-3 million visitors per year) per 44 years (since the first murder) is .0136 per 100,000 per year, so, you are 344 times more likely to be murdered off the trail than on the trail.

Or, if you only consider the 50,000 thru hiker starts, then that is 6/50,000/44 or .28 per 100,000 per year so, you are 17 times more likely to be murdered if you are not thru-hiking.

64% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

Yeah, it would take A LOT of research, hiker data, and careful analysis to truly put it all in perspective. Safe to say, the trail itself is less dangerous than most other places or activities.

[yerbyray]

Facts would be more useful in evaluating risk (and perhaps less troubling) with some context. How many thru hikers were not murdered on the trail in the same period as the six listed in your post?

How many sexual assaults? How many other types of assaults? You can't walk through the woods naively thinking that everybody is becoming one with nature; some of the hippies are not so hippyish but harmful.

This topic rears up on many threads on here and people on both sides get so offended. The truth is violent crime is down but we hear about it more so we think it is bad. That being said....you do have to prepare for bad things to happen. We all carry different things in our first aid kit to prepare so why can't people carry other response items that they want to? Just stay within the confines of the law. If you have ever passed me on a trail...you probably passed a firearm.

The most dangerous thing on the AT are the two-legged mouth breathers who have no real purpose in society. The second is the drunks fighting over women. Third are those fire breathing axe wielding shelter mice.

I'm a grown man and I have been in the Linville Gorge and other trails where I have encountered many groups of people I am concerned with. They are there to have their kind of fun (usually involves ingesting chemicals and then burning something unique like a loveseat on the fire ring) but things could get out of hand.
March of last year a fellow who lived on land adjacent to Shortoff Mountain killed two folks, stole their ride and went on a terror spree that ended in the death of a federal ranger and a long shoot out. He had been on foot around the Table Rock Road prior to the law enforcement officer being killed.

[Lone Wolf]

http://www.southeasternoutdoors.com/...l-murders.html

[jimmyjam]

http://www.southeasternoutdoors.com/...l-murders.html

The list is missing the murder of Scott Lilly in 2011 in Amherst County.

[Lone Wolf]

...and Meridith near blood mtn.

[Wolf - 23000]

The list is missing the murder of Scott Lilly in 2011 in Amherst County.

jimmyjam,

Thank you for including Scott Lilly. I never met the man but he shouldn't be forgotten.

V/R

Wolf

[rickb]

jimmyjam,

Thank you for including Scott Lilly. I never met the man but he shouldn't be forgotten.

V/R

Wolf

Very correct.

We should also not forget how the authorities would not confirm that this death was homicide until 6 months to the day after his partially burried body was found -- as the coronor was required to do by law.

While many assumed that was the case, up until that time authorities would only say that his death was suspicious, and advise hikers in the area to take the usual precautions all the while suggesting that hikers had no special reason to be concerned for their own safety. Really.

Scott Lilly's murder is similar to all the others mentioned in this thread insofar as he was killed outside of the contemporary NOBO migration. It is different in that he was the only male killed who was not in the company of a female hiking parter, the only hiker to be murdered by asphyxiation, and the only AT hiker we know was killed whose murder was never caught.

[Wolf - 23000]

rickb,

Julianne Williams and Lollie Winans, two women who were murder in 1996, the killer was also never caught yet.

Also Geraldine Largay (Inchworm) who disappeared in 2013. Her body was never found even after a number of unsuccessfully searches. I really hopes her the best but her disappearing is very suspicious.

Regardless of if it is against a male or female, anyone who commits a violent crime needs to be brought to justice.

One of the problems is the police simple are not knowledgeable about the trail. It is not something that happens very often. When the police are called to these crimes, they are not uses to hikers hiking 20 miles a day, the equipment that they used, or life on the trail. Over the last couple of years ATC has stepped up to help get some of these creeps off the trail. There are still at least three murders that the killer(s) is still out there. Hopefully one day soon justice will be served for all.

V/R

Wolf

[rickb]

Wolf,

The reason I focused on just Thru Hikers is both because it is a group that I identify with very closely, and also because it is well defined.

When (God forbid) the next thru hiker is killed, the oracles of the Trail will no doubt be quick to bring out the talking points of how the trail is safer than Mayberry RFD because millions visit it without incident. Well, millions of thru hikers do not hike the Trail!

The other victims you mention, along with Rebecca Wright and Louise Chaput, and those we may have missed, matter every bit as much as the 5 or 6 thru hikers I listed, of course. I didn't mean to suggest otherwise. I am glad you and others in thread mentioned them.