the NoBo thru count

[soilman]

If these numbers continue I imagine there is going to be lots of competition for beds in hostels and hotels in addition to shelters and camp sites. Resupply may also get to be a concern especially for specific items like fuel canisters and Aqua Mira unless outfitters saw this increase coming.

[Praha4]

and next Tuesday is St. Pattys day, traditionally one of the 2 dates (April 1st the other) with the largest numbers starting! and you can believe the southeast will get at least one more winter storm with snow in the next month. I've been watching the Mountain Crossing and Hiker Hostel FB pages for pics of the NoBos..... lots of happy, smiling faces!

[coheterojo]

We're all doomed! Doomed I tell ya!

[Praha4]

today's update at Hiker Hostel FB page:

Today is Appalachian Trail thru-hiker hump day. We are at the mid point of the season.
Here are hiker stats and trail conditions. Today is first sunshine in 6+ days and as the pic shows mud is everywhere, but blue sky.
Hiker count at Amicalola is 460. Conservatively that make the total at 1200 (43 per day).
Today already 25 had started at ASP. On Friday 42 started just from ASP (~105 TOTAL on Friday)
*as always there is some guessing involved and this is not 100% accurate.

[Poedog]

That's just insane.

[illabelle]

We drove across the Smokies yesterday via Newfound Gap. From Alum Cave Bluff parking area to the top and down to a similar elevation on the other side, there was snow and ice all along the road shoulders. All of it was dirty gray snow, probably what was heaped there every time they plowed the road. NFG was in a fog, chilly and breezy, icicles hanging from the shaded rock banks near the top. My guess is that there's still snow lingering here and there on the AT despite the recent warm springlike weather, but probably not much, and not going to slow anybody down.

[Violent Green]

100+ on a single day. Geeeez. I would do a May start if I was going this year or anytime soon. Bring on that permit system already!


Ryan

[thewalkingstick]

If I start from the north end of Shenandoah around April 1st, going southbound, when should I expect to run into the incoming Mongolian hordes? I would be walking about 10-15 miles per day

[full conditions]

I hiked from Telico Gap to NOC yesterday and I only counted 15 thru hikers for the day - there easily could have been more behind me though and plenty of others who left the Wesser Bald Shelter before we got there that we never met. So, maybe 20-25 thrus on that section at most. All reported many days of crappy weather prior to Sunday but they were hanging in there.

[Slo-go'en]

If I start from the north end of Shenandoah around April 1st, going southbound, when should I expect to run into the incoming Mongolian hordes? I would be walking about 10-15 miles per day

Not for a while. The leading edge of the bubble will likely reach southern VA around the 3d week of April, so I'm guessing Pearisburg is where you'll start seeing more then a few of the faster ones.

[TOW]

Anyone have an idea on what the completion percentage rate was last year?

I think around 1800

[TOW]

I've had three thru hikers stay so far.....

[RED-DOG]

I wounder how many people is doing Laurie P's Voluntary registration not too many or anyone.

[gillian]

These are the stats from the ATC for last year (https://www.appalachiantrail.org/abo.../2000-milers):

2014 HIKER COUNTS (UPDATED MARCH 12, 2015)

Northbound Thru-Hike (Georgia To Maine In 12 Months)
Springer Mtn., Ga. (estimated)	2500
Harpers Ferry, W.Va. (1,020 miles)	1267
Katahdin, Maine (2,186 miles)	653

Southbound Thru-Hike (Maine To Georgia In 12 Months)
Katahdin, Maine	242
Harpers Ferry, W.Va. (1,166 miles)	168
Springer Mtn., Ga. (2,186 miles)	76

Alternative Thru-Hike (Entire Trail, Non-Contiguous, In 12 Months)
Harpers Ferry, W.Va.	122
Completions reported	70

Section (More Than 12 Months)
Harpers Ferry, W. Va.	505
Completions reported	129

The historical completion rate looks to generally be 25-30%.

[dangerdave]

Given these numbers, completion rates are...

NOBO: 26%
SOBO: 31%
Flip-Flop: 57%
Section Hikers: 25%

Just as I suspected all along. Flip Flopping is the way to go! Take note future hikers!

[Cotton Terry]

Interesting. Why, would flipping have such a better completion %? It seems climbing Katahdin before the finish would be anti-climactic.

[CalebJ]

My suspicion is that most of the flip floppers have done some backpacking before (and quite possibly some solid section hikes). They probably chose the flip flop option because it worked well for them and walked in with eyes wide open on plans to complete the AT. Far cry from the percentage of pure beginners showing up at Springer or Katahdin because it sounded like a good idea at the time.

[full conditions]

My suspicion is that most of the flip floppers have done some backpacking before (and quite possibly some solid section hikes). They probably chose the flip flop option because it worked well for them and walked in with eyes wide open on plans to complete the AT. Far cry from the percentage of pure beginners showing up at Springer or Katahdin because it sounded like a good idea at the time.

Yep - I agree. I also suspect that an awful lot of NB's see the AT as a really long approach trail to Katahdin - every day is a day to be endured until you get there. I'd quit too.

[illabelle]

I don't get the section hiker figures. The way I read it, 505 sectioners passed thru HF and got counted. 129 sectioners reported finishing the trail in 2014. But, by definition, many of those section hikers had no intention of completing the trail in 2014. So how is a 25% calculation valid?

[Cotton Terry]

illabelle, just a guess, but it's possible those that finished in 2014 had started in previous years and those that stopped in HF started in 2014 and previous years.