Fast hike in June - feasible?

[davidm]

Hi folks,

First of all, thanks for all the information on this forum! I'm thinking about trying to thru-hike the CT this summer. But, it would be an early-season hike, and I'm trying to figure out if the timing is feasible.

Basically, I could be on the trail from June 5-27. Most of the CT guide information seems to say that the trail opens up "mid to late" June. So, I guess I'm trying to figure out a couple of things:

1. How "hard" is the mid-to-late June boundary? I've been looking at the NRCS snow data from last year, and it seems like most of the locations were snow-free as of June 5th. Is that typical? Based on snow levels now, will this likely be the case again this year?

2. Let's say there's still snowpack in early June - how extensive is it likely to be, and what would it be like to try to hike through it? Would it be 10 hours a day of trudging through snow, just a dusting on the high passes, or something in between? I've got a fair amount of experience with hiking in snow from trips in Europe - if I carry crampons and an ice axe (and, know how to use them), would snowy conditions on the CT present problems?

3. I'm guessing it would make most sense to go Denver -> Durango, so as to give the higher parts of the trail near Durango more time to melt off?

Thanks so much for any thoughts about this! Really hope this works out - if so, can't wait to see some of you out there.

[San Juan Ron]

Last year, the CT at the crest (north) of Tenmile Range still had plenty of snow around July 1st when I went through on the CT (check the Fremont Pass SNOTEL site). It really wasn't passable until around 6/20-25. Many CT areas in the San Juan Mountains still had snow around 7/1 (many CDT hikers had to abandon the San Juan's in mid-June due to snow depth). However, that was last year when we had significantly more snow than this year.

I hate to even guess on how much snow will be on the trail in early-June this year. The month of May can bring lots of snow or simply warm weather and rapid melting and runoff. The former would make the CT difficult in early-June while the latter would simply mean mud and patches of snow at the higher elevations.

You would get more educated answers in mid-May.

SJ Ron

[davidm]

Hey Ron,

Cool, thanks for this - I apparently didn't look at those Fremont Pass reading when I checked before. Looking at it again now, I realize that I'm not actually sure how to read the data - do you know what the difference is between "Snow Depth" and "Precipitation Accumulation"? Since precipitation accumulation seems to only increase over time, I'm guessing that's the total amount of rain/snowfall for the season, measured as "liquid" inches? And, what matters is the snow depth?

I just went through and pulled reports from the NRCS site for June 5-25, 2014 at each of the locations listed on the CDT site. It looks like all of them were snow free as of June 5 except for Kokomo Pass (and a dusting at the Copper Mountain site, but it was at 0 on June 9th).

So, it looks like segment 8 might be the big obstacle? I guess the question becomes - in the worst case scenario, say there's crazy snow up there on June 10-12 when I try to go through, and I have to turn back. How hard would it be to just skip around that segment? Could it be done pretty surgically, or would I have to do some kind of crazy hitch that would involve skipping a much bigger piece of the trail?

Thanks so much for the help with this!

[bearcreek]

You will probably know when you cross Georgia Pass. That's usually the first place where the snow can be difficult. There is a bike path (as well as a free bus) between Breckenridge and Copper Mtn. that you could take to bypass the Tenmile Range if it is impassable, but Searle and Kokymo can be very challenging due to snow as well.

[San Juan Ron]

DavidM,

The important # on the SNOTEL report is snow depth. Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) gives you the amount of water in the snowpack (in inches) which is important for runoff -- but not so important for hikers. The accumulated precip is just that and begins every Oct 1st.

Keep an eye on the Fremont SNOTEL as it is currently over 5 feet last I checked (compare it with last year's numbers).

Remember that the #194 is an error message.

Ron

[AZ_Astro]

I have been watching the snowpack conditions at the Colorado Trail website via their links at:

http://www.coloradotrail.org/snowandweather.html

By far the greatest snowpack recorded by the 10 measuring stations is being recorded by the Segment 8 - Copper Mountain monitoring station.

So, I fiddled with the report parameters and found that according to the reporting station at Copper Mountain:

Copper Mountain Snowpack Clear by:

Mid-June in 2007
July 1 in 2008
Mid June in 2009
Mid June in 2010
July 1 in 2011
June 1 in 2012
Mid June in 2013
July 1 in 2014

Even those years that aren't clear until July 1 may be passable; we would need to do some more research. I am planning an early June 11 start for a thru-hike on the CT this summer and have been watching the snow reports carefully. It's really kind of hard to tell at this point, but by June 20, I'd guess that I have a 2 out of 3 chance that the 10-mile range (segment 8) will be clear. So - full speed ahead with my plans!

FYI.

[AZ_Astro]

Whoops. I made a mistake in the above post. As San Juan Ron notes in the post above mine, it is the FREMONT PASS/KOKOMO PASS monitoring station that has the greatest snowpack. Here's what I have extracted from 2007-2015.

Date Snow Depth (Inches)
May 01 2007 63
May 16 2007 50
Jun 01 2007 7
Jun 16 2007 1
Jul 01 2007 0
Jul 16 2007 0

May 01 2008 70
May 16 2008 73
Jun 01 2008 44
Jun 16 2008 19
Jul 01 2008 0
Jul 16 2008 0

May 01 2009 63
May 16 2009 49
Jun 01 2009 26
Jun 16 2009 4
Jul 01 2009 0
Jul 16 2009 0

May 01 2010 62
May 16 2010 56
Jun 01 2010 20
Jun 16 2010 2
Jul 01 2010 0
Jul 16 2010 0

May 01 2011 91
May 16 2011 75
Jun 01 2011 63
Jun 16 2011 26
Jul 01 2011 0
Jul 16 2011 0

May 01 2012 36
May 16 2012 24
Jun 01 2012 2
Jun 16 2012 0
Jul 01 2012 0
Jul 16 2012 0

May 01 2013 56
May 16 2013 51
Jun 01 2013 33
Jun 16 2013 0
Jul 01 2013 0
Jul 16 2013 0

May 01 2014 85
May 16 2014 76
Jun 01 2014 48
Jun 16 2014 17
Jul 01 2014 0
Jul 16 2014 0

May 01 2015 64
May 16 2015 62

[AZ_Astro]

The data from Fremont Pass/Kokomo Pass is also Segment 8 but at higher elevation.

Frement Pass/Kokomo Pass Passable/Clear by:

Mid June in 2007
July 1 in 2008
Mid June in 2009 (4" snowpack)
Mid June in 2010
July 1 in 2011
June 1 in 2012
Mid-June in 2013
July 1 in 2014

[San Juan Ron]

To give you a baseline, the north side of Tenmile Range (7-8.0) became passable around 6/25 which is when the Fremont Pass SNOTEL site hit zero on the daily recording. Was there zero snow on the CT? Hell no! There was 3-4 feet on the north side of the Tenmile Range and it was challenging with postholing (gaiters helped!) around 7/1 when I went through. The Segment 8 Searle-Elk Ridge-Kokomo section had some issues but was easier to pass through. Same applies to Georgia Pass in Segment 6 (some snow but easily passable). Copper Mountain had virtually no snow. This gives you an idea on the SNOTEL limitations.

So, my opinion based on going through in '13 (low snow year with no issues in late June) & '14 is to try to go through those challenging snow sections when the Fremont Pass SNOTEL site is at or close to zero to give you the best chance of success. Last I checked, Fremont Pass is still around 5 feet but 2 feet lower than 2014.

Ron

[bearcreek]

You have to be careful when comparing apples to oranges.

There are not very many SNOTEL stations right on the trail. Fremont Pass is the nearest station to the trail at Kokymo Pass. It is not on Kokymo Pass. It is near Kokymo, an old mining community that is about 5 miles from the trail and nearly a thousand feet lower. Add 2 weeks to your dates and you might get a more realistic idea of snowfall amounts for where the trail actually is located.

The Fremont Pass Snotel station elevation is at 11,400' elevation.

The problem areas:

The 10 Mile Range - High point is at 12,491'. A early season 8-15 foot cornice at the top can be the problem here - it can usually be overcome but can be sketchy.

Elk Ridge (High point near Kokomo Pass) is at 12,284' It is a high altitude, steep, deep, snow/ice covered sidehill with big exposure in the early season. This is a place where you need to be very careful.

You can hike the trail at a time of the year when it is a hike, or go much earlier and turn it into a full blown mountaineering adventure. It depends upon your particular set of skills and experience. It's not something you want to screw up.

[AZ_Astro]

San Juan Ron and bearcreek:

Thank you for the info you just provided in the last two posts. That's just the sort of info needed to help fill in the gaps between the SNOTEL monitoring data and the reality of when the trail is truly clear!

For my part, I don't want to do any major postholing but will be carrying gaiters and a gps and would not mind a few miles of snowpatch. In fact, I think I'd welcome it! At the same time, I recognize that I may have to turn around at some point! So fingers crossed and I'll also try to report from the trail.

[San Juan Ron]

Hopefully you will get some first hand accounts around the first of June. That will be your best indicator. Ron

[On Track]

After paying attention to both over the years, I agree that the high sections of the CT are not snow free when Snowtel sites go to zero. As others have suggested, when Snowtel hits zero, CT might be snow free a couple weeks later. Also worth considering your title of your first-post, "Fast hike in June - feasible?" Post-holing is not fast, it really slows you down.

[San Juan Ron]

Given the amount of snow received the past 2+ weeks (and more coming), I think a "fast" hike beginning June 5th (only 2 weeks away!!!) is highly unlikely. Deep postholing is almost guaranteed which is going to make the hiking difficult. I have been hiking above 11,000 near the CT and the snow is deeper than a month ago. Thigh high mushy snow isn't much fun. Ron

[davidm]

Thanks for all the info here. Indeed, San Juan Ron, looks like this isn't going to happen this year - thigh-high snow sounds like a drag.

But, no matter - Tahoe Rim Trail it is, I think! Good luck to everyone who gets out on the CT this year - I'll get there sooner or later.

[blarghity]

Somewhat related question - I'm looking at a hard start date of 6/15 due to ride issues to the Denver area. It's pretty obvious that the ten-mile range will be impassable for a bit, but how about segments 1-7? I don't have a very tight schedule time-wise (good till mid-August), so I don't mind taking it slow or playing around in those first segments or in/around Breckenridge, especially with getting used to the elevation again. With Georgia pass sitting at 1000' above the SNOTEL site (which is currently at 9"), is there a good chance it'll be a problem as late as the 21st-22nd? Anything else I should be keeping in mind or looking out for?

[San Juan Ron]

The snow totals seem to be a tad higher than last year at this time. Fremont Pass SNOTEL is at 40" this year compared to 32" last year.

I went through Segment 6 the last 2 years around 7/1 and didn't have any significant issues with Segment 6. There were snow drifts of several feet on the north side (6-12.3 to maybe 13.5) but they were fairly easy to avoid or get through. However, you will be going through 10+ days earlier and there appears to be more snow than last year. Segments 1-5 won't be an issue.

You could always get to Breck or Frisco and check reports on hikers going through Segments 7 & 8 which I believe would be real challenging given your start date and then make a decision on your next steps.

Ron