Scott Jurek on Appalachian Trail

[jersey joe]

i havent been following this the whole way but its my impression that they are not doing that. if i am correct, to me thats a fatal mistake. JPD set the record because she was (i believe) the first person to take that approach and it obviously gave her a big advantage. going back to the "old" way to try and best her is a curious idea.

if they were prepared to camp somewhere at night then stopping at liberty springs the other day would have made way more sense than walking until 5 am. to me he ran into an issue where he knew stopping at the notch wasnt going to set him up for the next few days and he had nowhere else to stop until galehead. the fact that he pushed on and then squandered any advantage reaching galehead he might have gained by only doing 21 miles the next day makes me think hes veering off of plan due to fatigue or other factors and i dont think its the weather. as far as i know it was clear yesterday, so why not make lakes of the clouds? that would have been what, about a 30 mile day? the onyl reasonable answer is that he wasnt capable of doing so.

Another way to think about this is that if you calculate the mileage from midnight, where he was roughly on top of Mt. Lincoln, it makes for a longer day than 21 miles and really doesn't seem that bad through that section.

How many miles is it from Mt. Lincoln to Galehead Hut?

Shouldn't it be calculated that way anyway? Not based on when he stops to rest but on a calendar day that starts and ends at midnight? The previous day's 48 would be reduced also.

[MuddyWaters]

That is an awesome photo. I had to go get the wife to look at it. One of the best reactions I have gotten in a few years. LOL

friend of mine works on feet at the western states, posted this photo the other day. guy finished.

Im sure Jurek has a strategy. He didnt sleep the night before last, so he slept several hours yesterday afternoon probably. Average the miles for the two days, you get similar to what many FKTs do there. but the toll from the high mileage is often worse than two lower mileage days.

[Just Bill]

Scott has quite a pile of people there, it's possible there was a bit of White Mountains fever and peer pressure going on too. The fella knows himself pretty well and perhaps reined in that horse before it ran away on him. Any trail is runnable, the question is what it costs you.

The other thing to keep in mind...
at some point the days no longer matter too much. You go until you can, or towards whatever benchmark fits the chess move of the day. Then you rest and start over. If night hiking reaches the point of simply hiking, when it's all traveling... the calendar falls away and you just move. I would imagine as the end nears you'll see more "breakdowns". The time that counts is the final.

[Josh D]

I understand the argument that Scott could be doing his all night hikes get out of the whites before weather rolls in, but if you average the last two days you get an average of roughly 35MPD which is what JPD averaged through that same section, so by hiking all night then only getting 21 miles the next day he didn't gain anything. If that was he plan it would seem that it backfired. Maybe he thought he was capable of doing that all night 48 mile day then coming back with another full 40+ mile day, but in reality he couldn't make it happen. Hopefully he got enough rest yesterday to get back on track today.

[Jeff]

Most if not all of the recent "supported" recordholders had hiked the AT at least once before their record attempt. If Scott accomplishes this record on his first traverse of the AT...kudos to him !!

[tdoczi]

Another way to think about this is that if you calculate the mileage from midnight, where he was roughly on top of Mt. Lincoln, it makes for a longer day than 21 miles and really doesn't seem that bad through that section.

How many miles is it from Mt. Lincoln to Galehead Hut?

Shouldn't it be calculated that way anyway? Not based on when he stops to rest but on a calendar day that starts and ends at midnight? The previous day's 48 would be reduced also.

maybe, i still think though the truth of the matter is his plan required him to get to galehead and he was already running out of gas by then (as the 1am stop the night prior would indicate. i dont carehow much mud there wasm taking until 1 am to finish the section he did tells me hes loosing steam) and it happened to take him until 5am. i dont think that was the plan whenever he drew it up. maybe he figured itd take until 10 or 12.

anyone have easily accessible JPD's white mountain itinerary? also, did she ever hike until hours after dark to do it? i dont recall that ever being the case.

[tdoczi]

I think it is presumptuous to assume that they are not following a strategy and just making bad decisions all of a sudden. What they are doing may turn out not to accomplish a specific goal but that is always a possibility. If one can look at a weather forecast (and I have not looked at it so this just a 'possibility' as I stated) and see several days of good weather it could make sense to them. He is traveling very light and is run down some. Not a situation where he wants to run into inclement Mt Washington like weather. So he blows through it and then coasts for a day or so to recoup. This is just a thought. But I think we can deduce that anyone with a record like his who is where he is at at this point in this 'race' has a good idea what he is capable of, what his reserves are and is actively thinking and planning on how to succeed. Time will tell of course.

But what I would be pretty certain about is that they are not making their decisions rashly or recklessly.

i dont think they are either, but deciding to do something and actually doing it arent the same thing. i dont think he set off for galehead from 25A thinking it would take until 5 am to get there, thats my point. why do i think that? because that IS a rash and reckless plan. it just took him that long to do it, for whatever reason. fatigue is the obvious one.

[matthew.d.kirk]

Shouldn't it be calculated that way anyway? Not based on when he stops to rest but on a calendar day that starts and ends at midnight?

Each day's technical start/end time is 5:56 am. The previous days' moves makes for a good unsolved mystery...

Night hiking to avoid the crowds? Just a thought. He's had quite the entourage in the past.

Anyway, looking forward to the shadows of tomorrow... If he gets to US2 for 40.2 miles and takes a good rest tonight, he'll be looking good with a week left to push through ME. He should be over Madison by noon!

[tdoczi]

for reference- JPD on day 10 of her hike did galeriver (which im guessing close to galehead hutt) to glencliff, 38 miles, in 14.5 hours. about 2.6 MPH.
SJ's roughly equivalent section, 25A to galehead, was 48.5 miles and took 23 hours, for a speed of 2.1 mph. half a mile an hour slower. if he moves at JPD's speed the whole way from 25A to galehead he would have been done by midnight, which was probably the plan. my conclusion? hes not moving as fast as he wants to be, and theres only so many hours one can spend making up for the slower pace and not sleeping.

[tdoczi]

and for those who arent familiar with the area, the trail from 25A to glencliff is something probably any of us could do in 4 hours, so its not like he was doing some super hard section that JPD didnt that slowed down his pace. if anything, including that super easy 10 mile stretch should have UPPED his over all speed for the day.

and .5 MPH is a lot when youre talking about a max speed of 3 or 4 MPH.

[tdoczi]

Each day's technical start/end time is 5:56 am. The previous days' moves makes for a good unsolved mystery...

Night hiking to avoid the crowds? Just a thought. He's had quite the entourage in the past.

Anyway, looking forward to the shadows of tomorrow... If he gets to US2 for 40.2 miles and takes a good rest tonight, he'll be looking good with a week left to push through ME. He should be over Madison by noon!

he almost has to get to US 2 but the question is what time will he get there? seems to me like itll be another 5 am job. sleep for 3 or 4 hours and then try to do the mahoosucs in a day? ouch.

stopping at carter notch and then aiming for gentian pond or carlo col tomorrow would be much wiser than hiking until 5 am.

[Pedaling Fool]

I feel as though my head is going to explode, one post makes me feel the other post makes me feel

Can someone please make up my mind

[Driver8]

I'd be interest to see everyone post what they think Scott's odds are of breaking the record. I'd say about 67%. His history and his pace to date pull me toward 100, the toughness of the terrain ahead next 150 mile plus possibility of injury pulls the number south. If he gets to Grafton Notch by close of business tomorrow/Monday am, his odds by me skyrocket. Fun to follow. Very fond of Jenn, but Scott is easy to root for, too.

[Pedaling Fool]

I'd be interest to see everyone post what they think Scott's odds are of breaking the record. I'd say about 67%. His history and his pace to date pull me toward 100, the toughness of the terrain ahead next 150 mile plus possibility of injury pulls the number south. If he gets to Grafton Notch by close of business tomorrow/Monday am, his odds by me skyrocket. Fun to follow. Very fond of Jenn, but Scott is easy to root for, too.

I'm actually a fairly intuitive person in general and am pretty good at getting a sense of feeling. However, in certain subjects, I just can't seem to tap into any feeling, much like looking down into a well and only seeing darkness, having no idea what's beyond.

Having said that, I'm going to say he will break the record, but it's not a prediction, more of a biased/wishful thinking type of thing. I won't even attempt to guess by how much he breaks the record.

[OwenRunning]

maybe, i still think though the truth of the matter is his plan required him to get to galehead and he was already running out of gas by then (as the 1am stop the night prior would indicate. i dont carehow much mud there wasm taking until 1 am to finish the section he did tells me hes loosing steam) and it happened to take him until 5am. i dont think that was the plan whenever he drew it up. maybe he figured itd take until 10 or 12.

anyone have easily accessible JPD's white mountain itinerary? also, did she ever hike until hours after dark to do it? i dont recall that ever being the case.

I don't want to speak for JPD and don't have her itinerary but remember in her CALLED AGAIN book how she hiked to Mt. Washington in the dark with a headlamp that was dying. She met Doyle on top and they slept inside a shed of some sort. Not sure how much she hiked at night in the Whites but it had to be some.

[tdoczi]

I don't want to speak for JPD and don't have her itinerary but remember in her CALLED AGAIN book how she hiked to Mt. Washington in the dark with a headlamp that was dying. She met Doyle on top and they slept inside a shed of some sort. Not sure how much she hiked at night in the Whites but it had to be some.

no dount she hiked after dark some. but theres a big difference between 10pm and 5 am

[Lone Wolf]

Why is he limited in where he can stop for the night? He has a support team. Can't they hike in with gear to many places along the trail and set up in anticipation of his arrival? Sure he would be "camping" rather than staying in a van at a road crossing but it wouldn't matter.

majority of runner types aren't "campers". car campers at best. Horton coulda had a much better record than 52 days had he had a crew willing to set up camps in the woods

[lemon b]

These FKT people are just behond my scope of thought process. Last time I was in Northern NH doing the end parts I took Tuckerman Ravine Trail because the weather was getting frightful. For some reason I think Mother Nature has to be on ones side to take a FKT. Good luck Scott. Jenn set a superperson high bar. Same as Chip Leonard did years ago. Again behond my ability to understand. Agree with Pedaling Fool, too much thought on this and the brain might explode.

[Lone Wolf]

Most if not all of the recent "supported" recordholders had hiked the AT at least once before their record attempt.

Horton, Thompson and Palmer hadn't

[Josh D]

Looks like another slow moving day so far. From my estimation looks like it has taken him about 7 hours to cover from Mizpah to Madison, which is around 12 miles maybe? That pace isn't going to get him where he needs to be, maybe he's dealing with another injury? If his pace was that slow due to sheer fatigue it would make more sense to sleep it off then get back on the trail when you can move 2.5 - 3 mph again, gotta be something else going on.