Oh damn, that graph is awesome.
He rolled into DAM about 10:xx ~ 50 miles. He said is leg wasn't so bad today, and he ran on it some. Seemed to be in good spirits. He couldn't say what tomorrow's plans were for sure, but Dickey Gap is about 48 miles and VA 670 at Teas, VA is 54 and VA 672 is about a mile closer. A friend and I are going to be back up support tomorrow.
I actually have money on this guy not breaking the record but I find myself pulling for him anyway...
Scott Jurek's Daily Log:
Day 1 (May 27): Unicoi Gap -- 52.9 miles
Day 2 (May 28): Rock Gap -- 53.2 miles (106.1 total) [+7.4 to JPD]
Day 3 (May 29): Yellow Creek Gap -- 52.2 miles (158.3 total) [+7.6 to JPD]
Day 4 (May 30): Newfound Gap -- 49.0 miles (207.3 total) [+7.9 to JPD]
Day 5 (May 31): Lemon Gap -- 52.7 miles (260.0 total) [+14.3 to JPD]
Day 6 (June 1): Devil Fork Gap -- 49.9 miles (309.9 total) [+14.1 to JPD]
Day 7 (June 2): Erwin -- 33.1 miles (343.0 total) [Even with JPD]
Day 8 (June 3): Carvers Gap -- 36.0 miles (379.0 total) [-11.8 to JPD]
Day 9 (June 4): Dennis Cove Road -- 39.5 miles (418.5 total) [-17.7 to JPD]
Day 10 (June 5): Damascus -- 50.6 miles (469.1 total) [-16.9 to JPD]
Day 11 (June 6): VA 603 -- 41.1 miles (510.2 total) [-21.4 to JPD]
Day 12 (June 7): VA 625 -- 51.8 miles (562.0 total) [-20.5 to JPD]
Day 13 (June 8): Dismal Falls side trail -- 48.4 miles (610.4 total) [-24.5 to JPD]
Day 14 (June 9): VA 613 -- 51.6 miles (662.1 total) [-20.8 to JPD]
Day 15 (June 10): VA 311 -- 45.9 miles (708.0 total) [-21.9 to JPD]
Day 16 (June 11): VA 614 -- 48.1 miles (756.1 total) [-26.3 to JPD]
Day 17 (June 12): US 60 -- 50.3 miles (806.4 total) [-25.4 to JPD]
Day 18 (June 13): Humpback Gap -- 48.7 miles (855.1 total) [-30.3 to JPD]
Day 19 (June 14): Skyline Dr. Mile 66.7 -- 50.7 miles (905.8 total) [-26.4 to JPD]
Day 20 (June 15): Hogwallow Gap -- 54.2 miles (960.0 total) [-24.6 to JPD]
Day 21 (June 16): Keys Gap -- 57.1 miles (1017.1 total) [-16.3 to JPD]
Day 22 (June 17): PA 16 -- 49.8 miles (1066.9 total) [-19.4 to JPD]
Day 23 (June 18): Boiling Springs -- 54.4 miles (1121.3 total) [-16.6 to JPD]
Day 24 (June 19): Greenpoint School Rd. -- 59.2 miles (1180.5 total) [-11.0 to JPD]
For that number that shows how far ahead or behind JPD's progress Jurek is, I'm simply comparing how much ground he's covered in his first "X" number of days (for example, on day 10 it's Damascus) and comparing it to how much ground JPD covered in her LAST "X" number of days (for example she covered from Summit Cut VA to Springer in her last 10 days, and the 2015 mileage difference between Damascus and Summit Cut is 16.9 miles in JPD's favor). Although this is counting JPD's last partial day as a whole day, I think it still won't be far off -- JPD's last 2 hiking days were anomalies (60 miles and 36 miles) but if you add them together and average them (96 miles total) they look like two typical JPD days in the southern Appalachians.
Last edited by map man; 06-20-2015 at 08:11.
Life Member: ATC, ALDHA, Superior Hiking Trail Association
Agreed. My graphic is pretty lame. I wonder what how they came up with the figure of 467.4 miles as the target for June 4? That's a pace of finishing in 42.15 days.
Capture.JPG
I have him at Damascus 2 miles behind the record pace (linear pace) and 36.5 miles behind the pace scaled to JPD's times. I think this agrees with Map Man's numbers. My calculations take into account that her last day was a partial by assuming her pace on the last day was the same as her second to last full day (60 MPD). That seemed to be a reasonable assumption as by using that number, her average MPD for the whole trail comes out correct. No matter what you do you have to fudge it a bit to make it work due to the partial days at opposite ends.
If hes healthy, he can crank out some big mile days in the mid-atlantic, his last day too.
Key is to stay healthy. I think that means dont run.....much
Runnings impact is much greater than just walking fast, for longer time.
Last edited by MuddyWaters; 06-06-2015 at 12:10.
Yup, even a walk/run/walk would be better than a zero or walk to stay competitive.Originally Posted by MuddyWaters
Their target of 467.4 miles on day 9 works out to exactly 2181.2 miles on day 42 (the target finish day according to the graphic). I'm guessing they used 2181.2 miles for the total length instead of 2189.2 miles when doing their calculation. Oops.
so. damascus to......?
I will curious how far he makes it from Damascus...............to catch up a bit might he make it to the Partnership Shelter. Recall that being about 60 miles.
Lone Wolf - your thoughts? This is your turf.
He doesn't stop at shelters. He stops at road crossings where his support van can reach the trai. Suggest road crossings near there.
i'm thinkin' he stopped at dickey gap yesterday. beginning and ending daily at a road is not good strategy. he needs a crew willing to set up a camp in the woods
Partnership is far, but it's super accessible as far as a crew is concerned. They can all but pull up to it.
i doubt he did 63 miles yesterday
and probably VA 623 near burkes garden today or walker gap. 55 miles or 49 miles
I know and said as much. The description was for the person saying he wouldn't use shelters so they'd understand that a couple are the most convenient meeting place in some areas.
RPH is another place that could be a stop if the mileage works out.
Life has intervened leaving little free time, but if he is on pace a couple of weeks from now and OMO sends me the data, I will produce the graph.
i hear he only did 41 miles saturday to fox creek.
Use the Dropbox link to download my spreadsheet any time. I recently updated with a new and improved pace for a NOBO hike scaled to JPD's pace.Life has intervened leaving little free time, but if he is on pace a couple of weeks from now and OMO sends me the data, I will produce the graph.
Yesterday 6/7, around 6 pm Scott posted a photo of himself at the 1/4 way sign (547) miles. He did that in 11 days. If he is able to keep that average he will make to Katahdin in 44 days breaking JPD's record by 2 days if my math is right. I know the last 1/4 of the AT will be much harder to keep that pace.
Question for Old Man Out. Why do you have the date 5/27 shown twice on your Dropbox? Shouldn't day one be 5/28?
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