Scott Jurek Completion Predictions

[Pedaling Fool]

I'd be interest to see everyone post what they think Scott's odds are of breaking the record. I'd say about 67%. His history and his pace to date pull me toward 100, the toughness of the terrain ahead next 150 mile plus possibility of injury pulls the number south. If he gets to Grafton Notch by close of business tomorrow/Monday am, his odds by me skyrocket. Fun to follow. Very fond of Jenn, but Scott is easy to root for, too.

...Having said that, I'm going to say he will break the record, but it's not a prediction, more of a biased/wishful thinking type of thing. I won't even attempt to guess by how much he breaks the record.

Driver8 already asked the question in the other thread on page 31 (copied above) http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/show...=1#post1983502

However, I don't remember many people taking up his challenge to give the odds of SJ breaking the record. I've already said he'll do it (see above paste) and I'm sticking to that prediction. Anyone want to predict Yea or Nay? Or give odds and/or amount of time he'll complete his journey? Some possible ways to answer it -- answer it anyway you wish.

Will he set the record? Yea/Nay

Odds of him breaking the record? i.e., 0%; 50%; 90%, etc...

Or anyone bold enough to say by how much he'll break the record or fall short of the record....

[dmax]

Yea
45d 2hr 36min

[rocketsocks]

Can I wait till he gets to the camp ground? Or is that too much?

he'll make it, he's got a trick up his sleeve, I just know it!

[Josh D]

really hard to say, my mind is leaning towards no. but i'd say he still has a 49% chance of doing it. after 4 long slow days it's getting hard to see him turning this around. but I hope he surprises me, he's put in one hell of an effort!

[Sarcasm the elf]

I'll make my prediction sometime next week

[Biggie Master]

Just switched from the other SJ channel (thread)... Couldn't tell if i was scratching my watch or winding my a$$ -- with all the different directions that thread was heading.

Like several others have mentioned, his slowed pace is concerning to me, but like rocketsocks, I think he has a little something saved up for the finish. It's going to be close, but I'm pulling for him, and I think he will get the FKT by a hair.

[Malto]

I think he has it. He is getting within range of "a day's run". Given his background he can endure a lot of pain and punishment in the final push. Haven't been paying close enough attention to pick a time but I would bet your paycheck.

[richardw67]

I am not rooting for him. The thing that is upsetting to me is the coverage runners world is giving it. It's not a sport or an event. It's a journey. Pure and simple. It's not about being backed by corporate sponsors and crews and crews of people. The AT to me is a counter culture that doesn't want the spot light.

Ultra running was once a counter culture itself, but not anymore.

They can have the records and the self gratification that they did it faster. But why rush through beauty?

Today's society has become to focused on doing everything fast.

This has nothing to do with SJ. He just wants to paint his masterpiece. I just hope its ugly as hell.


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[MuddyWaters]

May get it, may not. Depends on his condition, which could stay same, or worsen. I doubt it gets much better at this point in the current terrain. His pace indicates some possible injury. That last day, may not be as big as a healthy Jurek would do after all.

And , how Baxters rules come in to play is a question. I dont expect them to be eager to accomodate an AT sideshow, with all the other AT issues they have ongoing.

[Josh D]

I am not rooting for him. The thing that is upsetting to me is the coverage runners world is giving it. It's not a sport or an event. It's a journey. Pure and simple. It's not about being backed by corporate sponsors and crews and crews of people. The AT to me is a counter culture that doesn't want the spot light.

Ultra running was once a counter culture itself, but not anymore.

They can have the records and the self gratification that they did it faster. But why rush through beauty?

Today's society has become to focused on doing everything fast.

This has nothing to do with SJ. He just wants to paint his masterpiece. I just hope its ugly as hell.


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what compels a person to click on a topic on a speed hiking and trail running forum, then proceed to talk trash about speed hiking and trail running?

[Traveler]

I'll make my prediction sometime next week

My guess is you'd still get an argument

[10-K]

what compels a person to click on a topic on a speed hiking and trail running forum, then proceed to talk trash about speed hiking and trail running?

The UL forum used to be the same way.

[Dogwood]

Ha ha. Oh boy. I'll reiterate for the sake of doing so on a separate specific thread answering PF's SPECIFIC question. If he's not hiding an injury I''ll say 90% he'll get the FKT. Even if he has to go the last 48 hrs with little or no sleep. He's not going to crush JPD's FKT though. I think this shows how well JPD AND HER CAMP executed!

BTW, Richardw67 have you done ANY research on the ink various running venues and the running community afforded JPD's FKT? Runners World, Ulltar Running Mag, etc. One of the things some of her critics point to is that she turned the AT into a racetrack. Here's one article. http://www.runnersworld.com/trail-ru...er-pharr-davis I like how she pulls everyone together under a common goal at the finish of the article. Let me pointedly ask do you think she has made the AT a better place overall and has she used her FKT as a platform for overall advancement? IMHO, I'd say YES! Am I FKT seeker or caught up in FKTs? Absolutely not.

[Water Rat]

I think he will get it, but by hours and not days. Jen set a pretty high bar...

I do have a question (and it has probably already been answered elsewhere and I really haven't followed the FKT attempts since Jen) - who holds the current MEN'S FKT? Having Jen hold the FKT for men & women, means she will still retain the FKT for at least women's category....until another woman comes along to break the record.

[richardw67]

I'm think what JPD did an was amazing effort. And she did it lean. No big sponsors. She is in my mind a true reflection of what the AT is about. I have read her books. And I would recommended anyone that has a chance to hear her one of her lectures go see it. She is a great ambassador of the trail.

I hope her record stands. Will it? I haven't a clue.




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[Tuckahoe]

I am not rooting for him. The thing that is upsetting to me is the coverage runners world is giving it. It's not a sport or an event. It's a journey. Pure and simple. It's not about being backed by corporate sponsors and crews and crews of people. The AT to me is a counter culture that doesn't want the spot light.

Ultra running was once a counter culture itself, but not anymore.

They can have the records and the self gratification that they did it faster. But why rush through beauty?

Today's society has become to focused on doing everything fast.

This has nothing to do with SJ. He just wants to paint his masterpiece. I just hope its ugly as hell.


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It is one thing to define for yourself what "the trail" and what you want to seek from it. It's pretty arrogant to foist your defintion onto others, or to demand that someone else's journey fit your expections.

Until this morning I had not followed Jurek's attempt at FKT. I really didn't care and it in no way impacted or defined how I enjoy my time on the trail.

[Coffee]

I am not rooting for him. The thing that is upsetting to me is the coverage runners world is giving it. It's not a sport or an event. It's a journey. Pure and simple. It's not about being backed by corporate sponsors and crews and crews of people. The AT to me is a counter culture that doesn't want the spot light.

Ultra running was once a counter culture itself, but not anymore.

They can have the records and the self gratification that they did it faster. But why rush through beauty?

Today's society has become to focused on doing everything fast.

This has nothing to do with SJ. He just wants to paint his masterpiece. I just hope its ugly as hell.


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"The AT to me", which I highlighted above, is the key phrase. To YOU, the AT is not about speed records. To OTHERS, it is. It is a foot trail used by a variety of people with different objectives and goals. It is amazing to me that a continuous footpath like the AT can exist so close to major eastern population centers. To wish that the aspirations of other people who don't share YOUR priority should be "ugly as hell" is itself a sentiment that is "ugly as hell".

[tdoczi]

he finishes sometime late monday or early tuesday. possibly because he arrives at katahdin late and either thinks better of it or the rangers wont let him up.

the above statement will be my loan contribution to this thread, fear not

[Coffee]

he finishes sometime late monday or early tuesday. possibly because he arrives at katahdin late and either thinks better of it or the rangers wont let him up.

the above statement will be my loan contribution to this thread, fear not

Yeah tdoczi, Jurek and his crew are so incompetent that they didn't consider Baxter SP regulations when planning the attempt. Yeah right. He may or may not break the record but I'm pretty confident that he won't get to the end on the verge of breaking the record only to be turned away.

[tdoczi]

Yeah tdoczi, Jurek and his crew are so incompetent that they didn't consider Baxter SP regulations when planning the attempt. Yeah right. He may or may not break the record but I'm pretty confident that he won't get to the end on the verge of breaking the record only to be turned away.

he wont be anywhere near breaking the record.