How Do You Make The Decision Whether To Hike In Questionable Weather?

[AO2134]

Hey guys. I am a weekend warrior and I have been incredibly blessed with weather since I started hiking 1 year ago. I am close to 700 miles since I started last year and I barely ever had to deal with weather.

This weekend I was thinking about finishing the Bartram Trail and camping at Cheoah Bald. In the morning I would make my way down. I am itching to finish this hike, but I don't want a viewless and much worse thunderstorm kind of ending to this hike while camping at a bald. I know there is sassafras shelter down the hill a bit if the thunderstorm becomes too much, but I still would like to finish the hike on a beautiful day.

So how do you guys decide whether to risk the weather to go hiking when the itch is strong, but the weather looks pretty bad?

15 Aug will be with moderate temperatures and the weather will be unstable, thunderstorms likely. There is a 60% probability of moderate rainfall and showers.

[SteelCut]

Thunderstorms don't deter my hike ... I hike regardless if a trip is scheduled. Storms only dictate where I want/dont want to camp. Cheoah Bald is not a good place in a lightning storm. I would do your trip regardless and if it's stormy walk down to the shelter and tent there (or stay in the shelter if you are into that kind of thing).

BTW, I just went over Cheoah Bald via the AT this past Tuesday in heavy rain. Slick on the downhill but not a big deal. No views :-(

[illabelle]

Except for a dayhike, most every hike we take involves clearing our calendar of work or personal responsibilities. Aborting a hike isn't done lightly, and re-scheduling on short notice can be a major pain.

If the weather is life-threatening (blizzard, for example) or will make us absolutely miserable (monsoon), we would stay home. But summer thunderstorms are seldom an all-day event. Normally there's a front moving through with terrible wind, lightning, and torrential rain - and then it calms down. If we can avoid the brunt of the storm, we'll probably still go out. Only 60% probability of moderate rain? For sure, we'll go out.

[Just Bill]

Depends...
If you have the luxury of flexibility, might as well take advantage of it.

But like many a hiker who misses even a single clear hour in a place like the Whites... as long as it's safe you just go.
Having been blessed with fantastic weather as well, I understand the sentiment that it is a completely different experience when you have good conditions.

Or if you still want to get out but don't want to miss a "highlight", maybe go knock out a different section or area that won't be as affected. If you're open to it, hiking in the rain has it's own beauty.

I don't remember the regulations or possibilities exactly at that spot, though I remember the small site and the view. If I recall correctly, the bald wasn't that big, and a site could be found just off the bald in the trees... A lightning storm on a southern bald, with a safe camp stashed a short distance away, may prove to be quite the sight and provide a show to rival any view.

[Tipi Walter]

I don't remember the regulations or possibilities exactly at that spot, though I remember the small site and the view. If I recall correctly, the bald wasn't that big, and a site could be found just off the bald in the trees... A lightning storm on a southern bald, with a safe camp stashed a short distance away, may prove to be quite the sight and provide a show to rival any view.

Cheoah Bald regulations (or possibilities)?? There are none and don't ever ask the local forest service if there are regulations on the Bald or they will awaken from their slumber and find some. But so far it's a wide open place free for camping as God intended.


Cheoah Bald in all it's glory when I hiked with Amy Willow in 2006. And in 2009 Gearfreak posted this on Whiteblaze:

Water on Cheoah Bald

"There is a spring a couple hundred yards down the west side of the mountain. When you get into the trees, there are plastic ribbons tied on bushes marking the way. In the center of the field at the bottom of the bald, there is a farm/access "road bed". Follow this road for about 30 yards, right before the road turns to the right, there is an old orange flag/tape tied to a limb on the left side of the road. Follow this path, which is marked by an occasional orange flag/tape to the bottom of a small ravine/draw, about 30 yards. The "path" then turns to the right/down hill following the draw to a good spring/creek, about 20 yards. Overall it is around 3/10 of mile from the top of the bald to the water source, it is steep.

This is quite dated so the flagging may be gone."

[AO2134]

Cheoah Bald regulations (or possibilities)?? There are none and don't ever ask the local forest service if there are regulations on the Bald or they will awaken from their slumber and find some. But so far it's a wide open place free for camping as God intended.


Cheoah Bald in all it's glory when I hiked with Amy Willow in 2006. And in 2009 Gearfreak posted this on Whiteblaze:"

A little selfish I know, but I want a day like that to finish the BT. I have the flexibility of endless weekends to do it, but I also want to finish the BT desperately. I guess I am answering my own question, but I am not liking the answer. The itch is strong on this one.

[Just Bill]

Well Tipi... the times they are a changing.

Have to be a bit cautious these days when suggesting a site unfortunately. So fer public stuff, best to suggest looking into and following the rules. Quite likely there is a rule floating around some place, quite likely it sits unenforced until it's abused. That bald seems a place primed for abuse.

Now fer a fine bit of tramping out and away from such places... we can go back to the rules as set by the fella that made the place.
Ain't no one else likely to come by and say otherwise nor many that will follow you.

[Bronk]

If I knew it would rain all day both days of a two day trip I might cancel it, but really rain is part of the whole experience. I can have a good time in the woods even if I'm soaked to the bone. If you don't have good views you can always do that section again.

[nsherry61]

Having grown up in the Pacific NW, we learned that if you want to do outdoor activities, you do them, weather be damned!
There is a strong sense of power in that attitude.

What I learned:

1) Some of the truly most amazing and spectacular views and scenes I have ever seen have been on trips where rotten weather was expected and/or had. There is a drama in dramatic weather that is unsurpassed and missed if one avoids that same dramatic weather due to fear of rain, wind, cold, or whatever.

2) Traveling in bad weather to the point of becoming confident in your skills at being reasonably comfortable and always safe enable more trips in more places during more spectacular and dramatic conditions.

3) Often bad weather just plain sucks and is miserable, and there isn't much of a good side except for the stories of suffering and misery you get to share with others when you get back . . . but, like beating your head against a wall, and then stopping, the next hike in good weather is all the more sweet due to the suffering of the past.

Hike far, hike often and hike free.

[PatmanTN]

FWIW, I camped on Cheoah last November and saw no signs posted about camping. There is big gnarly firepit up there but otherwise it was in great shape. shared the site with late arriving SOBOs also.


My tent




Eastern view




Sunset was awesome

[Wülfgang]

Like others have said if you always wait for clear, pleasant weather you wont do much hiking in your life.

I've hiked quite a bit back east in NH and PA and generally lighting is less of a concern out there compared to here. I remember humidity and drizzling rain but seldom, if ever, proximal lighting.

Conditions I would cancel for in the Rockies are: very cold temps (below 15 F or so---I had a very close call once), blizzard conditions, blistering heat in an exposed area...and high thunderstorm likelihood in an exposed area. I also only day hike in the winter.

I'd say just go and prepare for rain unless your heart is set on those views.

[gsingjane]

Hi, I see you are in Georgia and probably do a lot of your hiking around there? With her summer job my daughter has been living in the field this summer in national and state parks in VA, NC and for the next three weeks, Congerie in SC. She says it rains every single day. Usually a heavy afternoon downpour, and then clears right up again. I think she's gotten used to it.

I'm not a huge rain fan myself, but like the others say - it's all part of the experience. Now if I'm bringing out groups or young kids I'm more cautious, but when it's just me, I figure that's part of it.

Jane

[MuddyWaters]

if its a frontal system, you probably can count on bad weather
otherwise, its hit or miss
60% scattered thunderstorms means 40% is not
mountains make their own weather, pinpoint forecast is difficult
If you wait for perfect forecast, you will never get to go

[Dogwood]

If waiting for the perfect forecast is a necessity for your hiking you're going to enjoy far less hiking.

This: "Some of the truly most amazing and spectacular views and scenes I have ever seen have been on trips where rotten weather was expected and/or had. There is a drama in dramatic weather that is unsurpassed and missed if one avoids that same dramatic weather due to fear of rain, wind, cold, or whatever.

Traveling in bad weather to the point of becoming confident in your skills at being reasonably comfortable and always safe enable more trips in more places during more spectacular and dramatic conditions."

I've learned to embrace questionable weather. And, I do mean I had to learn to do this, making the necessary mental adjustments, as we're bombarded with the idea that if weather isn't within narrow parameters it's "bad."

“LIFE isn't about waiting for the storm to pass,it's about learning to DANCE in the rain.”
― Vivian Greene

[Offshore]

Ask yourself 2 questions - 1. Will it be safe (given an honest assessment of expected conditions, your gear, and your skill level)? 2. Will it be fun (keeping in mind that new experiences may broaden your definition of fun)?

[Another Kevin]

I try to avoid blizzards, floods, above-timberline thunderstorms, and deep cold (-10F is about the limit of my best sleep system at the moment).

Much less, bring it on! Some of my best trips have been in marginal weather. It keeps the crowds away, keeps the bugs down, freezes the mud, what's not to like?

But I've been weekending a long time, and have gear and skills to stay safe in marginal weather. So "will it be safe?" and "will it be fun?" are indeed the right questions. Allow for the possibility of Type 2 fun.

[saltysack]

Life's short! Trek on...adverse weather makes it exciting if you have the correct gear....a few years ago I arrived after dark at the back country kiosk to day a quick 1 night 24 mile SI loop hike. Last minute weather check called for temps near 10 deg and freezing rain!!! One of the best hikes I've been on! Yep i set my tent up inside carter gap shelter!!! Obviously no one else was dumb enough to be out in this crap!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bronk]

That is one of the nicer benefits of crappy weather: you're more likely to have the whole place to yourself. Its one of the things I like about winter camping.

[Dogwood]

That is one of the nicer benefits of crappy weather: you're more likely to have the whole place to yourself. Its one of the things I like about winter camping.

And the far reaching views with the deciduous trees not in leaf, and the sounds of crunching snow under foot, and the orange and purple winter sunsets and sunrises, and no crowds, and the wildlife and flora in winter mode, and frozen waterfalls, and icicles and rime on everything, and short cuts across frozen rivers and lakes, and blazing a virgin trail under snow being the first to leave a foot print, and the warmth of a campfire, and a hot meal, and a warming libation of choice, and the tight snuggling with your honey, and....and....isn't it great to be alive!

[Dogwood]

Some of the most memorable times in "bad" weather were hiking through Buckskin Gulch on New Years Eve, taking in the night atop Mt Whitney on New Yrs Eve(COLD and snowy), coastal hiking in Hawaii under a tsunami alert w/ HUGE 60 ft surf, hiking in Zion NP with 14" of snow falling, stepping out solo into a torrential down pore at 11 30 P.M. onto the Border Route Tr, hiking down into the Grand Canyon with 28" of snow at the S Rim TH, hiking through Bob Marshall Wilderness in 4 consecutive days of non stop down pores, slogging the AT in ME over five consecutive days of rain, slogging the BMT in 7 days straight of rain, crossing the Mojave or Sonoran Desert or Death valley in 110* + heat.......