Effect of El Niño on 2016 PCT Thruhike

[takethisbread]

Here it comes! El Niño is a changing in air currents that result in warming water temperatures in the Eastern Pacific (USA) and cooler water temperatures in Western Pacific locales (Asia). That's my idiotic understanding of it anyway.
The result of warming ocean temperatures on California's coast means a significant increase in precipitation. This could mean a lot of snow in the Sierra? Or will the temperatures mean more rain less snow? I can't imagine it's ever above freezing at night at 10,000 ft between December and April.

I want it to have great precipitation, cuz they need it, but selfishly I don't want record snow bc that will make it one of those years (that used to happen semi regularly ) where not as many hikers complete the entire pct from south to north in a single season.


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[Mags]

I wrote this on another website today (and made a similar remark on WB earlier for the CDT)

We don't know what will happen. I think the weather patterns are too skewed at this point.

I suggest consulting this oracle instead...

[Dogwood]

LOL. But I gotta know. I have to know to plan for the "adventure."

[Malto]

Not sure I would plan a lot based on El Niño. 2009-10 was a moderate El Niño and 2010-11 was a moderate La Niña. '10 was a high snow year in the Sierra and '11 was even higher. Flip a dice. The best thing for hikers would be a heavy snow year down south. That would thin the crowds and make a lot of businesses money.

[Shiloh]

Hummm. I guess you could plan in advance for “worst case” PTC weather – and be pleasantly surprised if trail conditions turn out to be better than expected (or predicted).
2016 is my year to thru hike the PTC.
So assuming that either El Niño or “The Big One” doesn’t wash California into the Pacific, or the Zombie Apocalypse doesn’t occur:
Here’s my Plan -
1.) Apply for my PTC long distance permit next February.
2.) Start getting regular weather and water reports in March.
3.) Be at Campo on my assigned (late April-early May) Start date.
4.) Start hiking north and don’t stop until I get to Manning Park.
5.) Be flexible and make adjustments as weather/trail conditions call for along the way.
6.) Relax and Enjoy the Adventure.
OK – I will probably still go even if the ZA happens.

[rebelL10N]

I'm looking for information regarding the last big El Niño the PCT saw in '97/'98, mostly regarding snow pack and water sources. We've gotten a bit of snow up here in the Sierras so far now entering December. My limited understanding of El Niños is that they bring a warmer and wetter precipitation down south and usually end up dumping later in the season. Anyone have ideas if crampons/snowshoes will be necessary, when, and where? Any flood hazards I should be more aware of? Any and all information is appreciate!

[Malto]

I'm looking for information regarding the last big El Niño the PCT saw in '97/'98, mostly regarding snow pack and water sources. We've gotten a bit of snow up here in the Sierras so far now entering December. My limited understanding of El Niños is that they bring a warmer and wetter precipitation down south and usually end up dumping later in the season. Anyone have ideas if crampons/snowshoes will be necessary, when, and where? Any flood hazards I should be more aware of? Any and all information is appreciate!

No on the snowshoes. Even with a boatload of snow, it will be well consolidated by June. If it is a high snow year then micro spikes or crampons will be helpful as will an ice axe at times. Floods aren't the issue, high stream crossing may be. If you want to see what a high snow year looks like, read http://postholer.com/journal/viewJou...entry_id=20018

[Venchka]

I LOOKED AT A WEATHER MAP TODAY.
The mountains on the west coast were getting precip. from Merced, CA to Vancouver Island.

[Pajj]

I think it's clear to all that the mountains on the west are getting quite a bit of snow so far, the question now is how long will it last

[Venchka]

Only clear to those who pay attention.

Wayne


Sent from somewhere around here.

[Traveler]

.... damned thing said, "whadda you lookin at"

[colorado_rob]

Looking good in the sierra's finally, for a change (assuming you think snow is good...). Really shaping up nicely in CO too, great early season skiing. But yeah, too early to tell, hoping for the best (lots of snow). As Malto says, for PCT hikers, might mean having good traction devices and ice axe for a couple weeks. I think the only downside is the potential for some gnarly creek crossings.

[colorado_rob]

Not sure this link will work properly, but here's an excellent site for snow levels, easy to play around with zoom, pan, etc:

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/webmap/...111.698&zoom=6

[Coffee]

I'm looking to start a SOBO thru hike around July 1 but have flexibility to alter my start date if needed. Thankfully SOBO hikers don't have to deal with the PCTA quota so I don't have to commit to a start date until the snow situation is well defined. If the snow in the northern cascades is just too high to start until late July, I'll probably pick a lower elevation segment to hike SOBO and then skip up to the border because I don't want my hike to go much beyond the end of October. I'd prefer a continuous SOBO but nature doesn't really care about my preferences.