Her last ping was at 3. Were there other pings after she left the shelter?
Well, not exactly because she could not have walked morethan 8 miles by 3pm assuming 1 mph. And, if she got off trail, much less. So 8miles from Polar LT on trail then say, 5 off trail max (and likely North of theLT), as cutting across rugged terrain would clearly slow one down, especially iflost.Originally Posted by QHShowoman
One question is whether she wore a watch. If not, perhaps she is like me andchecks her cell phone to check the time - especially if on a tight schedule tomeet her husband. It seems to me if she turned the phone on because of despairshe would not have turned it off unless the injury (or issue) was notimmediately life threatening and she wanted to save power to try anotherattempt later (in which case it would go back on). So if multiple pings wouldbe expected if the phone were sitting on, then it seems to me one ping mightindicate a quick time check (or bar check) and indicate that she turned it backoff which suggests that at 3pm there was nothing out of the ordinary. Thisreasoning is based on a lot of assumptions but when you're working on asituation like this you're using probability theory -- you want to find themost probable scenario as a source of potential answers or guidance.
We know that Ivanich left Poplar LT at 9am. We know she was probably seen at3:30pm not far from the summit of Lone Mtn about a half hr after Inchworm'sping and 6.5 hrs after leaving Poplar LT. We know Inchworm was off-trail by3:30 pm (b/c Crunchmaster is coming from the north and Ivanich is coming fromthe south). If the ping indicates an on-trail non-stressful time or cellphonecheck (another big assumption but also not improbable), then Inchworm left thetrail between 3 and 3:30pm very close to where Ivanich and Crunchmaster crosspaths. Again, probability analysis and hundreds of other scenarios are possiblebut that’s where I would personally focus search efforts. But if pings can happen with the pwr off onthe cell phone then probability for this scenario breaks down. It's still notclear to me if this is the case. Regardless, I agree with an earlier post thatIvanich is key here. To further refine things, we would need to know when andwhere exactly she saw Crunchmaster (which seems we will never know).<o></o
"To take risks is to live, to be always safe and secure is certain death" - Edward Abbey
"We know she was probably seen at3:30pm not far from the summit of Lone Mtn about a half hr after Inchworm'sping and 6.5 hrs after leaving Poplar LT."
I don't think we know that for sure. There seems to be some reason to believe that the person on Lone Mt was not Gerry.
ElephantEater, post 928 : "HUGE new development: I just got a call from Jane (her other hiking partner) and she got a call from one of the investigators. They now believe that the folks who thought that they saw Gerry near the apex of Lone Mountain confused her with someone else, and they think it is very possible that she never made it to Lone Mtn."
I believe that whatever caused Gerry to go off trail happened in the first few hours after leaving Poplar Ridge LT.
"Chainsaw" GA-ME 2011
wow. so much speculation. shut this thing down
Honestly, I second this. I understand everyone wanting to know what's going on, but all the speculation and accusations have gotten out of hand. I agree this thread should be closed down.
So what! Leave it up. You never know what can help...or which suggestions might give new insight. I'm just sayin'
I'm new to WB, so maybe there's something about these forums that I'm not aware of. I can understand closing a thread when people start attacking one another. But I don't understand why you, or anyone, would ask to have a thread concerning a lost hiker shut down because of "speculation". It seems to me that if one doesn't like the speculation, one needn't read the thread.
Please leave it up until she is found! There is no longer anything in the news. We only have speculation at this point. Hopefully she will be found soon. I think she has to be near Poplar Ridge Shelter since no one saw her all day.
The problem is often the family or friends are reading this garbage in desperation of any possible news.I'm new to WB, so maybe there's something about these forums that I'm not aware of. I can understand closing a thread when people start attacking one another. But I don't understand why you, or anyone, would ask to have a thread concerning a lost hiker shut down because of "speculation". It seems to me that if one doesn't like the speculation, one needn't read the thread.
I disagree. It was suggested the thread shut down a week or so back but there have been many new developments since then. I really don't know why anyone would criticize speculation on this issue. What else are you looking for here?? Some dude to show up on Thursday with all the facts that he forgot to tell the wardens? This is a tragic event that has touched thousands of us in the hiking community. I think the desire to know what happened and to share thoughts and feelings with others is really healthy. I am awestruck by the support for Inchworm that has been expressed via this thread. It's terrific to know we care so much for our fellow hobbyists and that most of us would go far and beyond the call of duty to help a fellow hiker in distress. That speaks volumes.
"To take risks is to live, to be always safe and secure is certain death" - Edward Abbey
it would help if the speculators were actually in the area walking during her disappearance. 99% of the posters here have never been to the location or even hike much for that matter. the family has given up, they're having a memorial. so......... one would think the "authorities" are done with this
How about when people start rumors about a current hiker having a mental illness? It's happened on this thread...just seems to have crossed that line where it should have been stopped quite a ways back.
that line of thinking was stopped, except when it's brought up in this context. there are 1100 posts, 99000 views, 56 pages and I think it only got out of hand for about 1 page. Usually threads exceed there usefulness after 3 pages.
yea but that seed has been planted. The speculation that has gone on in this thread crosses a line. Wolf is exactly right as is Wak. You start throwing around all of this speculation, it gets dangerous. Someone made a comment about the area being so well marked and what not. Its not the trail, its the woods off of the trail. We were up there this past weekend hiking and its still Maine, rugged and thick thick woods. It seems these forums always lead to some sort of internet detective agency. I think the info Troll passes along is fine because its actual information. Most everyone else on the outside simply offer support and speculation. Its a fact
I know it's a tragic event, and I am also awestruck at how many lives it truly has touched. I think about her everyday. I was out hiking in part of the area she was last seen just this past weekend. I agree it's awesome how much everyone cares for fellow hikers. I also believe that the trained Wardens and trained SAR units are running through every possible scenario, and that speculation on an internet forum by a bunch of people sitting behind keyboards isn't going to help any; if you read through all the posts, some things have been twisted and turned by people who were not anywhere near the area when it occurred...how does this help?
and its not that we dont care, folks should start stepping back from the keys
What I don't think this thread needs is a bunch of posts on why we shouldn't be posting. It needs to stay on topic. I read this thread twice a day hoping for development in the case. Personally, I don't want to read the off topic comments and wish posters would refrain from doing so, or post elsewhere. The thread has lasted 56 pages without it.
I received some more information from my reliable source today, which I can’t name. I have to paraphrase what was said. This is the Maine Warden replying here.
Yes we did ask Ivanich and she never saw Gerry on the trail, and we have not found anybody, other than the boys if they are correct, that did see her on the trail that Monday.
I have not been on that section of trail yet but for her most of it would have been downhill for her, Kladiscope described it as a little scary, but then she added it was nothing like coming down to Caribou Pond Road along that steep area. A lot of the guys describe most of it as being open beside the trail. I have asked about scenic step offs and areas like that and I am not hearing about any. Although if you pull up aerials on Google maps or Bing I can see granite out cropping’s on the south side that look like cliffs to me.
My strategy going forward is after talking with the person again about the cell phone coverage. Which she would have had coverage up at Popular Lean to and couple other places coming North on the trail, is if you remember the cell phone ping from George sent on Monday about 1420 hours and her cell phone received, there is also another text received at 1030 she receives but does not answer. The cell phone company is guessing where that is, but if you remember the green band, about 120 degrees wide, Lenny had on the map that indicated that is most likely where the cell phone was at the time.
I think she would have answered both those text if she had stopped on the trail and took out her phone, so I am thinking something happens where she cannot get to her phone but it is on, I cannot remember where she carried her phone, but it indicates to me that she is SOMEWHERE in that green band or at least her cell phone is, which I believe is with her.
So I talked with another person and he has the Cell phone data on his computer and we are looking at areas within the green band that need further searching, one big area that stands out to me is south of the AT near poplar, we have not had anyone in there, it is quite possible now that something happened to her on this section of trail and most of it is within this green band. That is where most of the search effort will be Thursday.
When we are done I will get a map again. I cannot be there Thursday but two others will be there along with other local wardens who are very familiar with case and area. It will be a long day again and they have to get people in 2 different ways to the areas we want to cover, they both involve long drives and walking a couple miles into the search area.
Thanks so much for sharing ATTroll....
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Life is an adventure or nothing at all ~ Hellen Keller
A better approach would be to shut down the speculators. I stopped responding to people who think they are playing a game of online Clue because I could not contain myself. This thread has a use, but it ain't jokes, accusations, and ignorant speculation. I don't want it shut down. I want it to stay on topic and be censored with the feelings of the family and friends of Inchworm in mind.
In the end, it's not the years in your life that count. It's the life in your years. - Abraham Lincoln
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