Karel Sabbe supported attempt

[TrailRunnerGuy]

His lead had been gradually and consistently increasing to the point he had a lead of 2.33 days as of the beginning of the day yesterday. Then yesterday he almost doubled Stringbean's performance though that section, hiking 1.87 days worth of trail, increasing his lead to 3.21 days in just one day. To get a feel for how much of an outlier yesterday's "hike" was, check out the graph of his lead by day.

Attachment 43553

It's not that important, but it seems to me there is a flaw in your cumulative addition, or we disagree on where he stayed last night vs Stringbean 3 nights later. I have him 4 miles past Stringbean, plus those 3 days. 4 miles isn't .21 days.

Amazing performance in the Whites.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

^ as of end of day yesterday.

[jersey joe]

Wow, Karel Saabe is on pace to crush the AT speed record.

Very impressive, besting some real ultra legends.

This guy is 28 years old.

I wonder how elite ultra runners like Jurek and Meltzer would have fared if they did the AT in their 20's instead of at the tail end of their careers.

It now seems like a sub 40 day hike will be done eventually.

[Odd Man Out]

It's not that important, but it seems to me there is a flaw in your cumulative addition, or we disagree on where he stayed last night vs Stringbean 3 nights later. I have him 4 miles past Stringbean, plus those 3 days. 4 miles isn't .21 days.

Amazing performance in the Whites.

I show Stringbean at Ripley Falls Trail on day 38 and Karel at Mizpah Spring Hut on day 35. That's a distance of 6.9 miles. Stringbean hiked 33.6 miles on the day he covered that section on day 39, so 6.9/33.6 = 0.21 days (rounding off).

But you are correct in that the long run it isn't that important. If I adjust the location of any one day's stopping point, one day's numbers will go up, another's will go down, but the final totals will be the same.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

OK, you had a little different spots than me for both. All good.

Saw another FB live feed where he was stopped somewhere, with his wife and at least two crew members, and another woman with a Belgian accent filming. One of the crew was about to go back out with him. Warren Doyle was also in the room briefing him on the next section. Not sure if he is following to the end or just stopped in. Logistically he would be a big help to the crew getting around Maine. Someone else had climbed up to Mt Washington early and went down to meet him and come back up. I think it may have been Andrew Thompson but I'm not sure. I think it was Karel who pointed to them as "two legends" and it kind of looked like him but I'm not sure.

Someone asked how tough that section was and Karel said it was "8.5" (out of 10, I presume).

[TrailRunnerGuy]

In the last half hour I'm seeing a blank page for the tracker, except for a green bar with 3 icons on the left. Hopefully that gets cleared up soon.

[SteelCut]

Yes, same here.

[chknfngrs]

Same blanky blankness

[TrailRunnerGuy]

It's back now, though the tracker is an hour and a half behind.

I want to revise my predicted finish time! If he goes to US 2 today, and he said something on FB that sounded like he was looking forward to a hotel tonight, that would put him within 300 miles. At 50/day, which is a lot for Maine but apparently not for Karel, that leaves 6 days after today. If he finishes around 4:30 next Tuesday that's 41 days and 12 hours (right?), 4 days ahead of the record.

[pbakwin]

He's certainly putting in an epic 2 days! Has anyone else done the Presi AND Carter-Moriah traverses on the same day??? ... in the middle of an AT thru???!!! ... in lousy weather...? It seems like the first 1800 miles got him really fit.

[chknfngrs]

I believe that last video was Pinkham Notch Visitor Center, and it seems like he slept on trail?! Also seems like the woman filming and the man providing the running pack were his parents or in-laws due to the familiarity. So nice they’re uploading this stuff, helps me visualize what he’s running through. I’m also thinking they read this thread because of their “better than cable” comment I made earlier, which is also rad. Exciting stuff indeed!!

[Slo-go'en]

We had moderate to heavy rain all morning. It started before dawn and lasted until afternoon. I drove a section hiker back around the mountain this afternoon. He bailed at tree line hiking from the Perch this morning. The rain was too heavy and the wind too strong. He had planned to hike over to Madison and down to his car at the Great Gully trail head and wisely decided today wasn't a good day to do that. I found him at Lowes store looking for a ride.

That Karl made it across in that weather without injury is remarkable. I bet he fell down a few times though.

The rain tapered off mid afternoon, but then a squall came through just before it started clearing nicely. The next few days will be very nice with low humidity and moderate temps. But there will be strong winds tomorrow as the front pushes past. Conditions in the Mahoosucs should be interesting.

[matthew.d.kirk]

He's certainly putting in an epic 2 days! Has anyone else done the Presi AND Carter-Moriah traverses on the same day??? ... in the middle of an AT thru???!!! ... in lousy weather...? It seems like the first 1800 miles got him really fit.

Wow. How the Whites were won! Incredible effort. No rain, no pain, no Maine.

[fiddlehead]

Very impressive, from Crawford Notch to a few miles short of route 2 (mostly downhill from where he is to rt 2).
I did that in 2 days already and thought I did something extremely hard.
He did it in one.
He's going to beat 42 days! (my guess) Probably closer to 41!
Unless they stop him at Baxter and make him wait.
Don't know the latest rules on that.

[Lgvdoorn]

Hi!

I'm Joe's girlfriend (crewmember from Karel) and sister-in-law from Karel. I love reading this forum because this whole attempt is so exciting and you all have a lot of interesting knowledge about the AT! The crew in the FB live feed is indeed all family (his wife, joe, and my parents). They will all be there untill the end. Warren Doyle helped them to make a schedule, They slept in a hotel yesterday. Joe and Karel ran the last section (about 19 miles) together and they said the difficulty was 10/10.
Let's hope he'll make it!

[chknfngrs]

Wow. How the Whites were won! Incredible effort. No rain, no pain, no Maine.

I think Karel is saying something like, "No Pain, No Pain, No Pain..." or something like this.

[black chucks]

Hi!

I'm Joe's girlfriend (crewmember from Karel) and sister-in-law from Karel. I love reading this forum because this whole attempt is so exciting and you all have a lot of interesting knowledge about the AT! The crew in the FB live feed is indeed all family (his wife, joe, and my parents). They will all be there untill the end. Warren Doyle helped them to make a schedule, They slept in a hotel yesterday. Joe and Karel ran the last section (about 19 miles) together and they said the difficulty was 10/10.
Let's hope he'll make it!

Hi,
Welcome and thanks for joining the fun here!

Does Karel have a preferred trail name? Asking mainly because "Karel" is similar to "Karl" who has held the record.
Based on yesterday's amazing run in the storm I could suggest "Rain Man Saabe"...

[Just Bill]

Commentary on Day 36: Karel has pulled of a remarkable 2-days in the White Mtns. After yesterday's huge day, today he completed BOTH the Presidential Traverse and the Carter-Moriah Traverse. While "only" 41 miles today, the terrain is some of the most difficult on the AT, and the weather was just terrible - cold, rain and WIND. We're not aware of ANYONE on an AT thru doing these 2 big White Mtns traverses in one day. Karel now has less than 300 miles left to complete the AT!

[Just Bill]

Thought I'd be the one thinking it first.

That said, my inner skeptic isn't really saying much more than that.
As has been pointed out here and elsewhere... this effort has primarily been an amatuer pursuit. Or taken up by some professionals after the peak of their competitive prime.
So it's not unreasonable to imagine that some unexpected results lie in wait as more talent is drawn to this massive effort.

Overall - pretty ridiculous either way.
Matt's average through here was a consciously conservative 27.75 MPD.
The current record pulled a roughly 28.40 MPD pace.

Clearly Stringbean had room for improvement with Jen (34) Jurek (34.10) and Meltzer (36.57) doing better here.


Joey's numbers are slightly skewed, though he is the best to date with a big 40.33 average. Though that was SOBO and after choosing to pull a 'rest day' 21 coming sobo into Gorham.
Again... conscious choice due to weather conditions and expected difficulty braving the weather late in the day.
The choice paid off as he ripped off the section far better than anyone before him, though that was day 9,10 and 11... not day 34,35,36.

Though it's worth noting that Joey had gas in the tank with the slowest section on record from Stratton to Gorham. Part of the plan- but gives some perspective on the level or rest he had.
Not to beat the dead horse... but for a torn quad muscle and some bad luck... Joey is on par with Stringbean in terms of speed and ability and it's a coinflip on my book on who's split sheet we'd be comparing if things went different. Yar- I got a bit of skin in that personal opinion but Joey has some impressive numbers to back it.

Karel is showing a 46 MPD average- 133% faster than JPD, Jurek and Melter's combined average.
And 115% faster than the fastest previous time in that section from a very strong tree trunk sized quad muscle carrying SOBO hiker who had rest and good weather.

The links on Peter's page turn up a:
18 mile Presi traverse record of roughly 4 hours and about the same for 20 mile Carter Moriah.

8 hours and change if combined and about 38 miles... done by what I imagine are very dedicated experts in that route on carefully selected days with ideal conditions.
Though I note the double presi traverse is coming in at 12 hours and a few minutes to do 36 miles.

How long was Karel on trail for his 41?

Joey pulled a 44... I'd have to dig it up to see how long he was on but I recall it being a long day and mind blowing at the time when I found out about it.
So it's not totally unprecedented... though I believe Joey might consider it one of the best runs of his life.
My mind is a bit fuzzy on it, but I believe at the time I had checked if he might have snuck in a bonus FKT given his once in a lifetime speed but something about it must not have matched up quite right.

Glad to hear Doyle is popping in with boots on the ground and I look forward to his thoughts.

All that said:
I'm just sharing some facts and perspective. I haven't really followed this too hard... life is busy and its a supported hike.

FKT's are about the impossible.

We've discussed the possibility of seeing an 'everything going right' hike... improbably as it is... we might be seeing one.
Going NOBO is traditionally considered harder- though I debate that wisdom personally- especially if one is fortunate enough to be of the type Peter mentioned who settles in and gets strong.

The whites can be an awe inspiring place for any hiker... and wildly primal inspirational setting for truly monumental efforts to match the majesty found there. Even a non-runner like me recalls a perfect day where I joined the wind for a short time and slipped effortlessly over that ancient ridgeline in a hike that reminds me to this day why I hike in the first place.

The AT is a special place where special things happen.

So my continued best to Karel as we watch something special.

Don't mean to fart out any birthday candles here. Just noting the facts.When he's done doing the impossible, I hope the evidence is equally extraordinary.

AT speed hikes- Speedy 2.pdf

[pbakwin]

Bill, if you try to fart out candles you just burn your ass!

This guy sometimes does as many as 6 impossible things before breakfast...