AT hiker trend

[Dan Roper]

He doesn't mean 40% of the population died. He means that actual deaths higher than expected/anticipated mortality based upon historic deathrates. I haven't looked at the underlying numbers recently but did so during the first two years of the Covid crisis. It was another way of measuring the impact of the pandemic. We know that each year about x% of Americans (or other demographic category) die. So if x+3% die in a given year, the mortality was 3% higher than expected. That might be due to chance, disease, pandemic, accident, war, malnutrition, drought, etc. I can't imagine a 40% rate, so I'd be a bit skeptical but would accept the statistical analysis of a legit agency.

[petedelisio]

He doesn't mean 40% of the population died

Yeah most of us understood that.
Would really suck if the world pop. dropped from 8 BILLION People to 4 BILLION. Tid be a tad wierd to say the least let alone a tad bit more noticeable, doncha' think?

[HankIV]

I don’t know where 40% idea comes from?
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

Holy cow, 695,497 hikers died of heart disease? Guess I’ll be posting on the Selling Used Gear forum soon, if my wife hears about this.

[Seatbelt]

I think you read that wrong.
It is 40% of the Entire world's population died.
You have to consider statistics and per capita my man... not just the per capita of hikers attempting to just walk 2,2oo miles in an entire whole year.

I was just being tongue in cheek, it sounded absurd as a blanket statement.

[One Half]

He doesn't mean 40% of the population died. He means that actual deaths higher than expected/anticipated mortality based upon historic deathrates. I haven't looked at the underlying numbers recently but did so during the first two years of the Covid crisis. It was another way of measuring the impact of the pandemic. We know that each year about x% of Americans (or other demographic category) die. So if x+3% die in a given year, the mortality was 3% higher than expected. That might be due to chance, disease, pandemic, accident, war, malnutrition, drought, etc. I can't imagine a 40% rate, so I'd be a bit skeptical but would accept the statistical analysis of a legit agency.

40% is what has been reported by the insurers as they are paying out "death benefits."

[petedelisio]

40% is what has been reported by the insurers as they are paying out "death benefits."

Ok, now I have to ask for clarification.
40% of what died? Hikers(tic)?

[LazyLightning]

I think maybe 40% of the common sense in this world may have died since the pandemic

[gpburdelljr]

I think maybe 40% of the common sense in this world may have died since the pandemic

Yep, and common sense is anythng but common.

[capehiker]

You are exactly right, ATC is saying 24-27 percent swon via an employee. Lack of WiFi, outrageously overpriced Chinese made gear, bear/mice issues are all part of it. The appeal is absent for the new incoming trekkers. The dirty word for today around the Pentagon is 'draft.' Recruiters are in a struggle to meet quotas, not even close to the minimum requirement. My children don't want to be anywhere there is no WiFi. I was told from a career marine that the lack of WiFi was the main reason for his comrades getting out. No hostel/shuttle, FarOut, battery recharge,YouTube, whatever.

I’m going to disagree about Wi-Fi being that big of an issue on the AT. Cell signals and service are good enough to stream videos and social media apps on the trail. Military personnel aren’t getting out because of Wi-Fi issues. That’s “boomer bro” talk. People are getting out because they’re no longer willing to die for the King’s bidding.

[Odd Man Out]

Yeah most of us understood that.
Would really suck if the world pop. dropped from 8 BILLION People to 4 BILLION. Tid be a tad wierd to say the least let alone a tad bit more noticeable, doncha' think?

OK. Which one of us snapped their fingers?

[jomo1983]

who knew that death was the leading cause of failed thru hikes?

[HankIV]

who knew that death was the leading cause of failed thru hikes?

I thought it was the other way round, that most deaths are from 40% of thru hikes that fail.

[Odd Man Out]

who knew that death was the leading cause of failed thru hikes?

Technically, death is the ONLY cause of failed section hikers.

[petedelisio]

I don’t know where 40% idea comes from?
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

1.5 out of every 100 people seems a stretch too.
More like .01% fatality rate near me and I don't think 40% of average health individuals got any shots. Even many with diabetes didn't get it.

[HankIV]

I heard that if you read the word Covid it’s fatal. Everyone who has has either died or is going to.

[Longboysfan]

Just back from 6 day NOBO section hike.
Yes older male hikers are in numbers out there and of them they seemed to be endurance athletes.
These were near the front of the current bubble which is approaching Damascus VA in a few days.
This being April 30th.
I had a great hike with the three brothers as I called them - really two brothers and a friend.
Along with Bagel and Scoops.
I did hear the Noro virus is out there - in the shelters.
Ran into on hiker in the Iron Mountain shelter with Noro. I moved on to Double springs.

[Grampie]

I thru-hiked the AT 22 years ago. I was 65 years old and hiking the trail was an experience of my life time.
After my hike, I became a volunteer caretaker at a AT cabin on Upper Goose Pond in Mass. I did this for 18 years spending many hours talking to hikers about their trip. This interaction with many thru-hikers gave me insight into how the thru-hiker community has changed over the years.
Most hikers were glad to have a roof to sleep under, spring water to drink and pancakes for breakfast at one of the best overnights on the AT. We only asked for a donation to help cover the costs. Arriving hikers would first ask about cabin accommodations, where the privy's were located and could they swim in the pond. When they left the following morning, they would be so thankful for the stay they had.
As more and more hikers started to hike with cell phones, I could see the attitude of younger hikers changing. The first question, on arriving, was where they could charge their phone and was cell service available. Some left the cabin when they were told that there was no electricity and cell reception was not good. What seemed to me that were more interested in talking on their phone than enjoying what the AT cabin had to offer.
Many hikers today, that stop at the cabin, won't take the time to talk about their hike. They spend a lot of time on their phone and are missing a great opportunity to be outdoors enjoying nature. The cell phone has made them a prisoner of modern tech.

[High-Milage Hiker]

I was bouncing around the Georgia section of the AT this weekend and in talking to hikers, ridge runners, and others close to the trail community it looks like the numbers of thru hikers will be down this year by about 20%; I have also heard that in general the hikers seem on average to be older than in years past. I am not sure how the pandemic recovery, economic turmoil with inflation, or maybe even the ability work remote has impacted the draw to hike the AT.

I read that 75 million Baby Boomers will be retired by 2030. That's a lot of potential hikers.

[Dan Roper]

I just finished a four-day NOBO trip that began at the James River Footbridge in Virginia.

I stayed at Stanimals in Glasgow the night before I set out. Really enjoyed my time there. The Bubble hasn't reached Glasgow yet, but there were perhaps 12-15 backpackers there that night, and 21 the night before.

For an hour, I sat in the living room with four other male backpackers, two young, two older-middle aged. They stared at their phones for at least an hour without saying a word. Twenty years ago, the five of us would've been telling stories, laughing, learning about one another, discussing the trail. These four gents seemed nice and normal for this day and time. I don't have a phone, so I read a book awhile and then wandered into the dining room and sat at a table where a group of younger hikers were doing the old-fashioned thing - sitting and laughing and talking. That was refreshing.

One of the real oddities was that I mentioned Whiteblaze two two young hikers, both females. Both had blank looks. They'd never heard of it! Ten years ago, that would've been an impossibility.

[One Half]

Have you seen that demographic? I would guess that we will see fewer hikers from that group than we have seen from previous retirees. And even fewer hikers from the much younger generations.

I read that 75 million Baby Boomers will be retired by 2030. That's a lot of potential hikers.