Some hikers better than a 20% chance?

[emerald]

Earlier today, I pointed out to someone what I have long believed to be true: some individuals have a better than 20% chance at the outset of completing the A.T. in a continuous hike. I believe there are a number of reasons why one hiker's chances might be better than another's.

I also believe hiking with someone else has both good points and bad points, and, sometimes, a pair or small group is more likely to succeed as a group than what the odds would seem to suggest they might as individuals.

I won't say at this point what particulars I think might favor one individual or group over another. I'll let that to others to sort out.

[bigboots]

I'm sure there are tons of factors that can be attributed to success/failure on a thru for both, but I think that's why we're here on WB. To increase our chances at success or to help others in their goals. If someone has the time I'm sure they could use an algarithm (sp) to find their individual success rate.

Bigboots

[emerald]

Maybe you miss my point. I think there are ways one can improve one's odds. How can one do so?

[Almost There]

People just say 20% as an average, obviously some people have better than a 20% chance and others have worse than a 20% chance. Preparation, expectations, determination, past experiences, and loose ends possibly left at home are just some factors that could increase a hikers chance or lessen it.

[Jaybird]

Earlier today, I pointed out to someone what I have long believed to be true: some individuals have a better than 20% chance at the outset of completing the A.T. in a continuous hike. I believe there are a number of reasons why one hiker's chances might be better than another's.............

SHARE your wealth of knowledge...O wise one!

thats what these FORUMS are for...

(but, the mere numbers are still gonna be 10-20% success rate...facts are facts!)

[Almost There]

Maybe you miss my point. I think there are ways one can improve one's odds. How can one do so?

Depends on the person and what might get one of the trail. For myself, it's my wife and what might be happening at home. If a crisis hits or she is having a rough time then it tends to wear on me while I am out hiking as I am left with all day to think about it and wish I was there to help her out with it. For others it could be something completely different. Although it does seem that many leave the trail due to a significant other.

Some have grand expectations of what the trail will do for them. To me it's one of the best places in the world to spend time, but the reality is it is just a trail, and if you expect it to do something magical for you...well, it's not gonna do that, what ever change occurs I think is due to what you find within yourself due to all that time left alone with yourself and your own thoughts.

I guess on lesser levels, gear, health, and past experience or lack of can also increase or decrease one's chances.

All in all, though there are lots of people who overcome all of these obstacles to complete the trail.

[buckowens]

Maybe you miss my point. I think there are ways one can improve one's odds. How can one do so?

I religiously followed two hikers last year on Trail Journals, and one dropped due to injury and the other due to family issues. I would say that arranging things on the home front should rank up there pretty high to a successful completion. If there is not that unwavering level of support from home, it would be difficult to continue. Injury is always a possibility.

I agree with Almost There that some have very grand expectations, and are sometimes disappointed. The build up is almost always better than the actual event, or so I have observed. The other factors mentioned will also have an impact to some degree or another.

[MOWGLI]

Maybe you miss my point. I think there are ways one can improve one's odds. How can one do so?

In a word, experience. With experience and knowledge comes confidence, sound decisions and reasonable expectations. Of course, someone who is inexperienced but with a boatload of determination can have a great shot.

[rafe]

A good attitude. A sense of humor and adventure. I'm not even talking about financial, health or family issues... just the psychological game.

[rickb]

I would note that an extraordinarily high percentage of Warren Doyle's students make it the whole way. And not just those who go on his guided expeditions, but also those who take his course and hit the Trail with full packs.

One could come up with all sorts of reasons for that: Self-selected characteristics of that population, WD's training, hiking style...

Who knows?

But the fact that his groups do make it a far high rate than most suggests to me that a lot of the reasons people give for stopping their hikes may not tell the entire story. But are perhaps more of a tipping point.

[rickb]

A good attitude. A sense of humor and adventure. I'm not even talking about financial, health or family issues... just the psychological game.

I read a business book called "Good to Great" where the author wrote of the "Stockdale Paradox". It was coined for POW Admiral Stockdale (later Ross Perot's running mate). The gist of it was the idea that those POWs who did best were the men who had an enduring faith that they would prevail in the end, but who also were very realistic about the magnitudue of the difficulties which lay ahead.

Seems like that way of thinking could help on the Trail, too.

From Google:

The Stockdale Paradox is named after Admiral Jim Stockdale who was the highest ranking US military officer imprisoned in Vietnam. He was held in the “Hanoi Hilton” and repeatedly tortured over 8 years. Collins describes going to lunch with Stockdale (can you imagine?) and trying to understand how he survived 8 years as a POW while so many died after just months in captivity.

Here’s how Stockdale put it. “I never lost faith in the end of the story. I never doubted not only that I would get out, but also that I would prevail in the end and turn the experience into the defining event of my life, which, in retrospect, I would not trade.”

“Who didn’t make it out”?

“The optimists. They were the ones who said ‘we’re going to be out by Christmas’. And, Christmas would come and Christmas would go. Then they’d say, ‘We’re going to be out by Easter.’ And Easter would come, and Easter would go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. Then they died of a broken heart.”

So, on the one hand it was about unswerving faith that one will ultimately prevail while on the other hand it’s about banishing all false hopes? As usual, the guy who lived it says it best.

“You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end – which you can never afford to lose – with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”

Holding those two seemingly contradictory notions in his head simultaneously was the key to Stockdale surviving, even thriving, in his experience. And, I believe, it is a perfect summary of the mindset you’ve got to have in starting a company. You have to believe that your vision will come to pass. You’ve got to do everything you can to make it happen. But, you can never let your belief and faith cloud your confrontation with reality.

[River Runner]

I read a business book called "Good to Great" where the author wrote of the "Stockdale Paradox". It was coined for POW Admiral Stockdale (later Ross Perot's running mate). The gist of it was the idea that those POWs who did best were the men who had an enduring faith that they would prevail in the end, but who also were very realistic about the magnitudue of the difficulties which lay ahead.

Seems like that way of thinking could help on the Trail, too.

From Google:

Wow! Nice story you posted. That would seem to hit the nail on the head.

As to hiking with a partner, sometimes that can hurt ones odds. If the partner isn't motivated it's easy to end up going slow, taking lots of zero days in town, etc. And if the partner happens to sustain an injury, the person hiking with them may end up hanging around waiting for the partners injury to heal, or hiking less miles in a day than they would have otherwise, and due to reluctance to move on and dissolve the partnership, they may get discouraged by a lack of progress.

If both partners are motivated, hike at a similar pace, and have similar goals as far as mileage and zero days, then I think that could be encouraging.

[Appalachian Tater]

I would note that an extraordinarily high percentage of Warren Doyle's students make it the whole way. And not just those who go on his guided expeditions, but also those who take his course and hit the Trail with full packs.

One could come up with all sorts of reasons for that: Self-selected characteristics of that population, WD's training, hiking style...

Who knows?

But the fact that his groups do make it a far high rate than most suggests to me that a lot of the reasons people give for stopping their hikes may not tell the entire story. But are perhaps more of a tipping point.

Those people are not a representative, random sample and the numbers are way to small to draw any conclusions about hikers in general.

Also, a slack-packer with van support is much more likely to finish than a backpacker.

[Bearpaw]

What makes someone succeed on a thru-hike? Something special inside. You can't simply see it from talking to someone or looking in their eyes or what not. You'd have to spend some time with them in difficult situations before you could make that call.

But there really is a definite emotional and psychological component that outweighs physical conditioning or even experience. Those who start in poor shape or with no experience have more hurdles to overcome, but with the right mental attitude, this can be done, particularly on the AT, with the host of supports inherent to the typical north-bound thru-hike. Those with this streak of stubbornness in their nature are much more likely to succeed IMO.

[Skits]

Stubborness and the ability to be flexible.

[Frolicking Dinosaurs]

I would note that an extraordinarily high percentage of Warren Doyle's students make it the whole way.

....... an enduring faith that they would prevail in the end, but who also were very realistic about the magnitudue of the difficulties which lay ahead.

..... Something special inside. You can't simply see it from talking to someone or looking in their eyes or what not. You'd have to spend some time with them in difficult situations before you could make that call.

But there really is a definite emotional and psychological component that outweighs physical conditioning or even experience. Those who start in poor shape or with no experience have more hurdles to overcome, but with the right mental attitude, this can be done, particularly on the AT, with the host of supports inherent to the typical north-bound thru-hike. Those with this streak of stubbornness in their nature are much more likely to succeed IMO.

Stubborness and the ability to be flexible.

Mental, physical and spiritual preparation. The ability to accept life with all its twists and turns on life's terms. Being able to hold on to a goal while being flexible about how the goal is achieved.

[CoyoteWhips]

Statistics is just math. Out of about 2,000 people, 400 have a one-hundred-percent chance of finishing, 1600 have zero chance. There is no way of telling who's in which group before they've all stopped hiking.

[kayak karl]

I read a business book called "Good to Great" where the author wrote of the "Stockdale Paradox". It was coined for POW Admiral Stockdale (later Ross Perot's running mate). The gist of it was the idea that those POWs who did best were the men who had an enduring faith that they would prevail in the end, but who also were very realistic about the magnitudue of the difficulties which lay ahead.

Seems like that way of thinking could help on the Trail, too.

From Google:

i am going to print that on a small card, laminate it and take it with me in 2008. great story

[highway]

Maybe you miss my point. I think there are ways one can improve one's odds. How can one do so?

Develop your mental "sticktoitivness"!

[Marta]

Many people who are in that 20%-who-finish group have persevered through an obstacle that other hikers chose to quit over--giardia, Lyme disease, injury, family problems, money problems... So, yeah, as everyone else has said, the recipe for success is a weird blend of having the stubborness to stick with the task no matter what and yet the flexibility to change course when roadblocks spring up.