Late February start vs. early March start

[ATX-Hiker]

I have planned on starting my NOBO hike on 02/26/09, but I have been starting to wonder about the cold weather. I was wondering if starting a few days to a week or so later, say march 1st or so would be any better weather wise to start? I live in TX and when it hits the 30's at night here, that's cold for most of us. I've read the post and nobody can predict the future, but leaving 02/26, what's the worst I should expect?

Hiking in snow everyday? till... mid-march, end of march?
Temps at night? 15* and below every night?
Icy/slippery trails to hike on?

[Lone Wolf]

i would just stick to your original plan. a couple weeks later won't make much difference

[papa john]

You can never predict what you'll get. In 2000, I was in the snow at Whitley Gap Shelter in early April.

[joshua5878]

I have planned on starting my NOBO hike on 02/26/09, but I have been starting to wonder about the cold weather. I was wondering if starting a few days to a week or so later, say march 1st or so would be any better weather wise to start? I live in TX and when it hits the 30's at night here, that's cold for most of us. I've read the post and nobody can predict the future, but leaving 02/26, what's the worst I should expect?

Hiking in snow everyday? till... mid-march, end of march?
Temps at night? 15* and below every night?
Icy/slippery trails to hike on?

I paid for a report published by a company that predicts precipitation probabilities by city. This company provides this information for people that are planning outdoor weddings and other activities. I ran the report for Feb and March of 2009. If these reports are accurate, (they claim 85%) late Feb and early March 2009 the probability of precipitation (rain or snow) is very high for Hiawassee GA.

[KG4FAM]

That early in the year it probably wont matter much. I have seen snow in the Smokies on May 8th at Icewater Springs in 08 and this year we had snow just north of Hiawassee about April 15th so its going to be cold no matter what.

What will be different is the ammount of people. One week will leave you closer to the crowd where shelter and hostel space gets short in nasty weather.

[snowhoe]

ATX-hiker do what you feel is right, its your hike, if you think that march would be better than do it. If you feel you cant wait, than feburary is the time. Either way you are going to get cold and probably hike in the snow. As long as you are prepared than you will be o.k. Just dont do anything stupid.

[Panzer1]

In general the later you leave the better the weather will be.

Some people leave early because they have to complete their hike for one reason or another by a certain date, like they have to go back to school or something like that.

Do you have any compelling reason why you have to start in the middle of winter?

If you schedule permits I would leave later like the end of march or early April. The later you leave the better the weather will be and the less your hike will cost.

Panzer

[ATX-Hiker]

In general the later you leave the better the weather will be.

Some people leave early because they have to complete their hike for one reason or another by a certain date, like they have to go back to school or something like that.

Do you have any compelling reason why you have to start in the middle of winter?

If you schedule permits I would leave later like the end of march or early April. The later you leave the better the weather will be and the less your hike will cost.

Panzer

Need to be back for school in the fall.

[KG4FAM]

Need to be back for school in the fall.

start as early as possible then, you don't want to be rushed

[Tennessee Viking]

It will still be quite cool on either schedule. But the later you start, the more crowded it will be.

[Panzer1]

Need to be back for school in the fall.

Yea, that's a good reason.

Just be certain that you have enough warm gear. Check this site for average temps:
http://www.appalachiantrail.org/site...mperatures.htm

Panzer

[ChinMusic]

start as early as possible then, you don't want to be rushed

You can't predict Feb/Mar weather with any specificity form a Dec vantage point. Late Feb COULD be better than early March....never know.

Start early and have a back-up plan to pull off the trail (wait it out) if the weather becomes unacceptable to you. It would really suck to move your plans forward only to find the week(s) you passed up were perfect.

[daddytwosticks]

The southern AT in late Feb.- early March...cold and wet. You can usually bet on it.

[mudhead]

It would really suck to move your plans forward only to find the week(s) you passed up were perfect.

Read that again.

[BookBurner]

A week or two isn't going to make any reliable difference. March in the southern mountains is highly variable. You are about as likely to get snow on 3/1 as 4/1, and for that matter, hot days on 3/1 as 4/1. One other thing, snow is possible but not near as likely as you might expect. You can get a few inches every now and then, but certainly the white stuff is the exception rather than the rule. Cold rain -- now count on that! Good luck.

[Blissful]

Weather is so unpredictable. Go with what you have. I only started a week later than your plan and ended up with 70s in mid March in the Smokies and snow in early April.

[modiyooch]

it's the mountains. there are NO guarantees. you will never catch me out there before march 15. I'm a wuss. I think some hikers got stranded a couple of years ago in the Smokies in a bad snow storm in April. But, there are people out there that do it. It's their preference. There's a poster that says they are starting at the end of this month.

[Happy Feet]

In '97 we left the first of April and had tons of cold Spring rain.

In '01 we left Feb. 22 and of course it was cold, and we had a blizzard the first day of Spring in upper East TN, but our early start was so much better.

It's easier to stay warm in snow than it is in a cold rain. We also made it to the Mid-Atlantic states before many of the springs dried up, and beat the heat in Virginia and points north. We were also ahead of the "pack", although we still had plenty of company.

We'll leave at least that early next time! Don't worry about the weather--just be properly outfitted. Happy trails.

[modiyooch]

--just be properly outfitted. Happy trails.

that's the key.

[The Solemates]

we needed to be back in school in the fall as well. we left 1 feb. we had probably 75 of our 149 nights on the trail below freezing.