Completion/Drop-out Rates

[LDog]

Played with updated ATC data on their "2000-miler" page to find completion rates for 2005-2011, an overall average completion rate, and average numbers of thru-hikers to make it to the major milestones. Posted the spreadsheet online, and posted the results at www.laughingdog.com

I was a bit surprised ... Seems I've always heard the percentage of those who drop out by Neels Gap was higher. 50% make it half way, but only 28% finish? And that number seems higher than the one that gets thrown around a lot...

[Spokes]

Interesting. Now if we can only filter out the blue and yellow blazers in that 28%......

[Moose2001]

Interesting. Now if we can only filter out the blue and yellow blazers in that 28%......

That's easy.......about half the number fit in that group.

[SGT Rock]

Interesting. Now if we can only filter out the blue and yellow blazers in that 28%......

Why. If they had fun and consider themselves done, then they are successful. Amen.

[Mountain Mike]

Why. If they had fun and consider themselves done, then they are successful. Amen.

+1 In 95 while most thru-hikers of PCT skipped around the High Sierras due to a heavy snow year a few hearty soles pushed thru. When comparing slides that winter with Taro who I hiked with most of the way up to Kennedy Meadows when he pushed on. He made it as far as the Goat Rocks wilderness in WA when he hit snow again. When I asked why after going through so much adversity & so close to finishing the PCT why did he bail. His response was a simple "It was no longer fun." Taro had over 10K miles hiking. That one statement made me rethink way I hike.

[Blissful]

I was surprised to see it going a lot higher in recent years northbound. Chalk it up to lighter gear innovations and lots of magic and hostel / trail angel help

[lush242000]

Not to be picky but 2000 miles is not a thru hike.

[LDog]

Not to be picky but 2000 miles is not a thru hike.

Tell it to the ATC. They've been calling it that since you were a wee lad ...

[Spokes]

Not to be picky but 2000 miles is not a thru hike.

Hmmm, that's what my 2000 miler rocker and certificate says....

[Rasty]

Not to be picky but 2000 miles is not a thru hike.

By your definition when they re-route the trail and add a half mile do you have to start over?

[Jack Tarlin]

As others have pointed out, innovations in gear, more facilities for hikers,and more help/support from Trail Angels and others have certainly helped keep more people on the Trail,especially in the early days. People that get thru the first critical weeks on the Trail obviously have a greater chance of completing their trip.

That being said, tho, the single biggest reason for the dramatic rise in the "completion rate" is the simple fact that in recent years the overwhelming majority of folks who report in a completed hike have, in fact, skipped parts of the Trail. In other words, the number of reported complete thru-hikes is not necessarily the number of hikes that were, in fact, complete. The vast majority of today's thru-hikers are NOT purists, i.e. they are not committed to hiking every bit of the Trail, but have no problems reporting in to Harpers Ferry that they have done so. I realize this fact makes some folks uncomfortable but the discomfort does not alter the reality of the situation, which is that the vast majority of reported "complete" thru hikes are often far from complete.

[LDog]

That being said, tho, the single biggest reason for the dramatic rise in the "completion rate" is the simple fact that in recent years the overwhelming majority of folks who report in a completed hike have, in fact, skipped parts of the Trail.

I swear to you that I will stay pure ...

[Zip & Troggy Brit]

I swear to you that I will stay pure ...

I'm with you ChillyWilly...on both your comment, and the hike. My wife, our two golden's and I start 19 March. We are in no hurry so do not be surprised when you come up on us ambil'n along. Look forward to meeting you on the trail.
Zip and Troggy the Brit

[LDog]

I'm with you ChillyWilly...on both your comment, and the hike. My wife, our two golden's and I start 19 March. We are in no hurry so do not be surprised when you come up on us ambil'n along. Look forward to meeting you on the trail.
Zip and Troggy the Brit

If you're doing the approach trail, we'll be starting together. Else I'll be a day behind. I reckon you'll be easy to spot!

[Mike2012]

As others have pointed out, innovations in gear, more facilities for hikers,and more help/support from Trail Angels and others have certainly helped keep more people on the Trail,especially in the early days. People that get thru the first critical weeks on the Trail obviously have a greater chance of completing their trip.

That being said, tho, the single biggest reason for the dramatic rise in the "completion rate" is the simple fact that in recent years the overwhelming majority of folks who report in a completed hike have, in fact, skipped parts of the Trail. In other words, the number of reported complete thru-hikes is not necessarily the number of hikes that were, in fact, complete. The vast majority of today's thru-hikers are NOT purists, i.e. they are not committed to hiking every bit of the Trail, but have no problems reporting in to Harpers Ferry that they have done so. I realize this fact makes some folks uncomfortable but the discomfort does not alter the reality of the situation, which is that the vast majority of reported "complete" thru hikes are often far from complete.

"overwhelming majority"? you have some facts to back that up?

[Lone Wolf]

"overwhelming majority"? you have some facts to back that up?

no he doesn't nor does anyone else. it's all speculation and totally unimportant

[max patch]

"overwhelming majority"? you have some facts to back that up?

Do a thru and keep your eyes open and you'll get your facts.

[Grampie]

As others have pointed out, innovations in gear, more facilities for hikers,and more help/support from Trail Angels and others have certainly helped keep more people on the Trail,especially in the early days. People that get thru the first critical weeks on the Trail obviously have a greater chance of completing their trip.

That being said, tho, the single biggest reason for the dramatic rise in the "completion rate" is the simple fact that in recent years the overwhelming majority of folks who report in a completed hike have, in fact, skipped parts of the Trail. In other words, the number of reported complete thru-hikes is not necessarily the number of hikes that were, in fact, complete. The vast majority of today's thru-hikers are NOT purists, i.e. they are not committed to hiking every bit of the Trail, but have no problems reporting in to Harpers Ferry that they have done so. I realize this fact makes some folks uncomfortable but the discomfort does not alter the reality of the situation, which is that the vast majority of reported "complete" thru hikes are often far from complete.

I believe what Jack said. A lot of folks today will tell a little lie to save face. No one wants to say they thru-hiked but didn't finish.

[Slo-go'en]

I was a bit surprised ... Seems I've always heard the percentage of those who drop out by Neels Gap was higher. 50% make it half way, but only 28% finish? And that number seems higher than the one that gets thrown around a lot...

Too bad there isn't another way point for say how many make it to Vermont. Some of that 22% which made it half way but not all the way could have run out of money or time and I suspect many drop out in PA/NJ/NY because the heat and humidity is brutal when most go through there.

[LDog]

Too bad there isn't another way point for say how many make it to Vermont. Some of that 22% which made it half way but not all the way could have run out of money or time and I suspect many drop out in PA/NJ/NY because the heat and humidity is brutal when most go through there.

I wonder how many check into Harpers Ferry, then go directly home ...