Danger on the AT?

[SassyWindsor]

A lot of AT murder rate quotes concerning carrying a gun. I'm more afraid of being raped, robbed, dog attacked or beaten than murdered. So, murdered is just one of several reasons to tote. How many hikers have been attacked or robbed (but left to live) while on or near the trail?

[WILLIAM HAYES]

you dont need a gun

[hikerboy57]

A lot of AT murder rate quotes concerning carrying a gun. I'm more afraid of being raped, robbed, dog attacked or beaten than murdered. So, murdered is just one of several reasons to tote. How many hikers have been attacked or robbed (but left to live) while on or near the trail?

how many havent?

[WingedMonkey]

While you probably meant the question to be rhetorical, I think it is agood one.

5 thru hikers have been murdered on the AT -- all of them many hundreds of miles into their hikes.



About 11,000 people have reported a thru hike to the ATC.


For every 2200 thru hikers who have reported hiking the length of the AT, one person making the attempt did not get the chance to because they were killed by a complete stranger along the way.


As for the lottery ticket example, what do you think your odds of winning a 1 in a million game if you buy 1000 tickets? That concept matters.

Always enjoy the stats you keep on these deaths, but I too have a problem with basing them on successful 2,000 milers.

You really would need to find a way to count all the attempted 2,000 milers to get a base.

[Alligator]

The OP has twice indicated he is not carrying so don't make this into a gun thread. For those of you who turn these threads into gun threads regularly, there are going to be consequences if it keeps happening. It's past old at this point.

[MuddyWaters]

Successful thru hikers make up a tiny portion of trail users.
Attempting thru hikers make up a still tiny portion of trail users.

Over 2 million people per year use the trail in some way.
Maybe the stats say its safer to section hike or day hike.
Not sure that could be a valid conclusion though.

[Pingus]

It is most common for friends and family to warn of the dangers of hiking the AT. They've likely never been on it. Statistically, hiking the AT is by far the safest long term activity you can engage in. Enjoy your hike.

[rickb]

Always enjoy the stats you keep on these deaths, but I too have a problem with basing them on successful 2,000 milers.

You really would need to find a way to count all the attempted 2,000 milers to get a base.

You have a point.

i think common wisdom is that about 20% of those attempting a thru hike complete their journeys and register with the ATC as milers.

If you buy that, then about 1 in 11,000 of all those who attempt a thru hike are murdered by a complete stranger within 6 months of the time they set off on their hikes.

Not sure where you live, but if 1 in 11,000 vibrant and law abiding people living in my town were getting killed every 6 months, I would not be proud of that. Over the course of 20 years that would be 40 victims out of 11,000 or one in 275 people. Yikes!

[hikerboy57]

You have a point.

i think common wisdom is that about 20% of those attempting a thru hike complete their journeys and register with the ATC as milers.

If you buy that, then about 1 in 11,000 of all those who attempt a thru hike are murdered by a complete stranger within 6 months of the time they set off on their hikes.

Not sure where you live, but if 1 in 11,000 vibrant and law abiding people living in my town were getting killed every 6 months, I would not be proud of that. Over the course of 20 years that would be 40 victims out of 11,000 or one in 275 people. Yikes!

its closer to 1 in 10 that finishes, and countless others use the at daily without incident. 5 random acts that happened to occur on the at. ill take those odds better than crossing the street in manhatten

[Mountainsmike]

Real threats on AT:
Lyme's Disease
Blisters
Twisted ankles or sprains
Fall/tripping injuries
Heart attack
Shelter mice getting your food
Weather related Hypothermia,heat exhaustion, etc

Some you can take precautions for, some are just dumb luck. Some are setbacks, others can be the end of your hike. If you start reasonably fit & don't push to hard at the start boredom will is one of the more common reasons people get off the trail along with running out of money.

[rockyiss]

I had lyme disease, was midiagnosed for nine years , you do not want to get it !! It can be a life wrecker.

[Carl Calson]

i'd worry about lightning on an exposed ridge more than a murderer on the AT

[rocketsocks]

I had lyme disease, was midiagnosed for nine years , you do not want to get it !! It can be a life wrecker.

What was the treatment and or prognosis long term?

[Mountain Mike]

What was the treatment and or prognosis long term?

Long term antibiotic iv treatment. I lived for years on Nantucket Island where it was prevalent & many never saw or recognized early signs of it. A local doctor noticed a trend & called it chronic Lyme's disease.

Per Wikpedia Late disseminated infection

After several months, untreated or inadequately treated patients may go on to develop severe and chronic symptoms that affect many parts of the body, including the brain, nerves, eyes, joints and heart. Many disabling symptoms can occur, including permanent paraplegia in the most extreme cases.^[20]The associated nerve pain radiating out from the spine is termed Bannwarth syndrome.^[21]
The late disseminated stage is where the infection has fully spread throughout the body. Chronic neurologic symptoms occur in up to 5% of untreated patients.^[14] A polyneuropathy that involves shooting pains, numbness, and tingling in the hands or feet may develop. A neurologic syndrome called Lyme encephalopathy is associated with subtle cognitive problems, such as difficulties with concentration and short-term memory. These patients may also experience profound fatigue.^[22] However, other problems, such as depression and fibromyalgia, are no more common in people who have been infected with Lyme than in the general population.^[22][23]
Chronic encephalomyelitis, which maybe progressive, can involve cognitive impairment, weakness in the legs, awkward gait, facial palsy, bladder problems, vertigo, and back pain. In rare cases untreated Lyme disease may cause frank psychosis, which has been mis-diagnosed as schizophreniaor bipolar disorder. Panic attacks and anxiety can occur; there may also be delusional behavior, including somatoform delusions, sometimes accompanied by a depersonalization or derealization syndrome, where the patients begin to feel detached from themselves or from reality.^[24][25]
Lyme arthritis usually affects the knees.^[26] In a minority of patients, arthritis can occur in other joints, including the ankles, elbows, wrist, hips, and shoulders. Pain is often mild or moderate, usually with swelling at the involved joint. Baker's cysts may form and rupture. In some cases, joint erosion occurs.

[rocketsocks]

Long term antibiotic iv treatment. I lived for years on Nantucket Island where it was prevalent & many never saw or recognized early signs of it. A local doctor noticed a trend & called it chronic Lyme's disease.

Per Wikpedia Late disseminated infection

After several months, untreated or inadequately treated patients may go on to develop severe and chronic symptoms that affect many parts of the body, including the brain, nerves, eyes, joints and heart. Many disabling symptoms can occur, including permanent paraplegia in the most extreme cases.^[20]The associated nerve pain radiating out from the spine is termed Bannwarth syndrome.^[21]
The late disseminated stage is where the infection has fully spread throughout the body. Chronic neurologic symptoms occur in up to 5% of untreated patients.^[14] A polyneuropathy that involves shooting pains, numbness, and tingling in the hands or feet may develop. A neurologic syndrome called Lyme encephalopathy is associated with subtle cognitive problems, such as difficulties with concentration and short-term memory. These patients may also experience profound fatigue.^[22] However, other problems, such as depression and fibromyalgia, are no more common in people who have been infected with Lyme than in the general population.^[22][23]
Chronic encephalomyelitis, which maybe progressive, can involve cognitive impairment, weakness in the legs, awkward gait, facial palsy, bladder problems, vertigo, and back pain. In rare cases untreated Lyme disease may cause frank psychosis, which has been mis-diagnosed as schizophreniaor bipolar disorder. Panic attacks and anxiety can occur; there may also be delusional behavior, including somatoform delusions, sometimes accompanied by a depersonalization or derealization syndrome, where the patients begin to feel detached from themselves or from reality.^[24][25]
Lyme arthritis usually affects the knees.^[26] In a minority of patients, arthritis can occur in other joints, including the ankles, elbows, wrist, hips, and shoulders. Pain is often mild or moderate, usually with swelling at the involved joint. Baker's cysts may form and rupture. In some cases, joint erosion occurs.

Lovely stuff....thanks Mike, looks pretty darn bleak doesn't it.

[Mountain Mike]

I had a few friend that had it. Wasn't a nice thing. One was an avid runner, knocked the crap out of him for a few years.

[Trippinbilly33]

Stories like these go in the NYC is a Hell hole full of muggers and people with terrible manners who won't help you if you're bleeding to death file! I have heard these B.S. stories as well from people who live near but have never stepped foot on the trail or NYC. They are propagated by fear mongering preppers types who take a gun to the bathroom just incase. I have spent many days in the woods I have never had a problem. Aside from being harassed by game wardens while small game hunting (BTW) I was armed at the time ;-) . Deliverance is a movie not a likely reality. Just like where you live use good judgment don't let yourself be lulled into a false sense of security and in my opinion leave the gun in the bathroom where it belongs. Save the extra weight for candy to offer muggers and or bears I hear the really like candy!

[Son Driven]

I might not be carrying a gun, but I would like for the evil doers to think I might be.

[JAK]

There was a strange sequence of incidents in Fundy National Park a few years ago. Someone had choked on homemade trail mix, another on Cheerios, and then a third one month later on Captain Crunch. The thought it might be the work of a cereal killer.

[Del Q]

When people ask me about this I tell them that by far, personal injury is the #1 risk, add hypotermia and the overall mental aspects of long distance hiking. Gun, no.........too heavy and not the right thing to bring in my mind.

A thru hiker once told me that all you reall need is a single edge razor blade, over time and experience this is good advice.