Is this a record thru-hike year?

[BonBon]

I just saw that someone I have been following is #788 entering Baxter State Park for the thru. Is this an unusually high number of thru-hikers? It seems like I hear that only between 200-300 people complete the trail each year.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[map man]

This is a link to a page at the ATC web site that has lots of info on thru-hiker numbers:

http://www.appalachiantrail.org/abou...il/2000-milers

For both 2012 and 2013 the ATC has reports of completed thru-hikes for between 500 and 600 NOBOs.

I think I read somewhere that one of the numbers that Baxter State Park keeps track of is how many hikers each year are "thru-hikers" who stay at The Birches but that number includes not just traditional NOBO thru-hikers but anyone who starts their hike south of the hundred mile wilderness. If that's true perhaps that's why the number you saw was so high.

Edit: This speculating I did in the last paragraph proved to be wrong, as both TJ and Kerosene pointed out later in the thread.

[rafe]

I seem to recall this morning at the ALDHA annual meeting -- Laurie Potteiger reported that it had indeed been a record year for nobo finishers.

[Slo-go'en]

They had really good weather this year. A bit cooler and drier then usual and a really pleasant fall. No big storms in the south during the spring and all the really hot weather stayed out west. With no big weather issues to drive people off the trail, especially early on, I can see how it would be a record year.

[hikernutcasey]

I think I saw this in the AT Journeys magazine but the ATC reported that something like 1,250 had made it as far as Harpers Ferry. This was the highest number they have ever recorded.

[Pedaling Fool]

I wonder how much of this has to do with the economy?

I know the unemployment rate has been coming down, but many say that one major factor that's being overlooked are the number of people that just stopped looking for a job; maybe they're all out on the AT

[Kerosene]

I was a section hiker, starting in Rangeley, but did not get a number when staying at the Birches (even though this section hike completed the AT for me after 41 years). I believe that the 788 number reflects single-season NOBO thru-hikers. The count was #777 on 10/4, and I know that there were at least a dozen planning to summit on 10/5, so the final number will have to exceed 800.

[Slo-go'en]

I wonder how much of this has to do with the economy?

I know the unemployment rate has been coming down, but many say that one major factor that's being overlooked are the number of people that just stopped looking for a job; maybe they're all out on the AT

Since it costs a ton of money to do a thru-hike, where did the money come from? Either they worked real hard the last few years to earn the required disposable income or they went seriously into debt. Maybe a bit of both.

[TJ aka Teej]

The numbers given out at Katahdin Stream are to hikers reporting they are finishing a northbound thru-hike. The number is not just how many hikers have stayed at the Birches. Not all finishing thrus stay at the Birches, they often either stay at KSC or shuttle back in from Millinocket.

[rafe]

Since it costs a ton of money to do a thru-hike, where did the money come from? Either they worked real hard the last few years to earn the required disposable income or they went seriously into debt. Maybe a bit of both.

If we could see the age distribution of the finishers it might tell us something. One possibility is more retiring boomers choosing to do thru hikes?

(Combined with other favorable factors, as mentioned -- eg. the weather.)

[Pedaling Fool]

Since it costs a ton of money to do a thru-hike, where did the money come from? Either they worked real hard the last few years to earn the required disposable income or they went seriously into debt. Maybe a bit of both.

Perhaps; it would be interesting to see the demographics breakdown. I remember the economy being blamed back in 2008 when the housing market blew up, but I had the same questions as you do in your above post, because a thru-hike is normally something you have to specifically save up money, for at least a year. Although, I did hear some were hiking off of unemployment benefits...I don't know...

[rafe]

Perhaps; it would be interesting to see the demographics breakdown. I remember the economy being blamed back in 2008 when the housing market blew up, but I had the same questions as you do in your above post, because a thru-hike is normally something you have to specifically save up money, for at least a year. Although, I did hear some were hiking off of unemployment benefits...I don't know...

A bit tricky to do a long distance hike while collecting unemployment benefits. At least collecting them legally, here in MA.

[map man]

The numbers given out at Katahdin Stream are to hikers reporting they are finishing a northbound thru-hike. The number is not just how many hikers have stayed at the Birches. Not all finishing thrus stay at the Birches, they often either stay at KSC or shuttle back in from Millinocket.

Thanks for setting me straight, TJ and Kerosene.

Upon further thought it occured to me that a better way for me to take a shot at an answer was to make an apples to apples comparison. Since we know that Kerosene was told by the folks at Baxter State Park that on October 4th the NOBO thru-hiker number they kept track of was at #777, I looked at trailjournals.com for 2013 for a hiker finishing about the same time. I found an entry on October 9, 2013 for the hiker "flatfoot" on his summit day in which he says that the folks at Baxter told him he was thru-hiker #689 for last year. Since the ATC says 2013 was a record year and it looks like 2014 is exceeding that by at least 100 hikers, by Baxter's count, it sure does look like 2014 is a record year.

[Pedaling Fool]

I agree, but this thread is just reminding me of when the economy went bust back in 2008 and we had a lot of hikers hit the trail and it seemed like the conventional wisdom was to blame the economy. I was skeptical, so my first comment on here was a little tongue-in-cheek remark in rememberance of that time, since I haven't seen anything mentioned on this year's large number of hikers.

BTW, before that year it seemed like the numbers were coming down year-after-year and the conventional wisdom was that this was the natural wear-off effect of the boom years caused by the book: A Walk in the Woods.

[Slo-go'en]

I wonder how much of this increase in numbers could be blamed on whiteblaze.net

[JohnnySnook]

I see it as a fact of life these days. The population is growing so the number of hikers will rise. The younger generation is not looking to go straight from college to a full time job if they can find one. Many have seen there parents suffer due to the corporate world fire their parents just a year before retirement to save on pensions and insurance costs. Finally the youth are wanting more than giving into corporate america. Well those didn't didn't have kids at a young age, got married, and are stuck taking jobs they hate.

Also parents are rewarding their kids more. Moving back home is accepted. If you look at the numbers the youth under 30 are not happy taking corporate jobs at greatly reduced wages. They have huge student loans and are now looking for a job doing something they enjoy or just living life after college. The market for good jobs is very low.

Then add in the top earners of society. Many of them want their kids to experience life. Travel the world. Go on adventures. Mostly on their parents bill. Do good in school. Get a degree and we'll pay for your trip. Even if budgeted.

Lets not forget the internet has made it easier. Anyone can do it and even be coached on the trail via FaceTime or Skype. All you need is an APP on your iPhone and you can walk the trail without worry.

Thats just life these days. I often find myself wondering if as a 41 year old male solo hiking the trail is a good idea. It just seems so many kids and retires are on the trail. What will my place be? I know it doesn't matter. HYOH but it is something to think about. I don't hunk it will matter in my situation. No kids, no wife, freelance job. My only worry is my 74 year old single mother(she'd love hearing me say this) and her health. Leaving for 6 months will be hard.

JUst Sayin>>>

[rafe]

Thats just life these days. I often find myself wondering if as a 41 year old male solo hiking the trail is a good idea. It just seems so many kids and retires are on the trail. What will my place be? I know it doesn't matter. HYOH but it is something to think about. I don't hunk it will matter in my situation. No kids, no wife, freelance job. My only worry is my 74 year old single mother(she'd love hearing me say this) and her health. Leaving for 6 months will be hard.

JUst Sayin>>>

You'll be the odd man out, somewhat. The majority of thru-hikers are either under 25 or over 65.

[rickb]

You'll be the odd man out, somewhat. The majority of thru-hikers are either under 25 or over 65.

Of possible interest: http://www.nps.gov/appa/parkmgmt/upl...n_Report-2.pdf

Demographics are towards the end, with thru hiker age distribution of those in this study on page 182.

[rafe]

Hi Rick -- the data in that chart doesn't seem to support my assertion, does it?

But the age brackets are problematic. Traditionally lots of life-changes happen in one's early 20s and mid-60s.

Not surprising (to me) that most thru-hikers are in the 20-39 bracket, or that very few are <20 years old.

Most surprising is the dearth of hikers >=60. I can't explain that, though I've seen a lot of smart, skilled people facing involuntary early retirement.

The report does say, "Thru hikers tend to be the youngest type of hiker on the AT, and section hikers the oldest." That rings true, for sure.

[rafe]

@JohnySnook: interesting observations indeed. I was 37 when I attempted a thru hike. I had very few peers in my age group, most folks I met were quite a bit older or younger. I was mid-career, but not a corporate climber. I was debt-free, child-free, recently divorced -- classic middle age thru-hiker candidate.

The bi-modal thru-hiker age distribution has long been the accepted wisdom, but the specific shapes and locations of those two peaks are probably shifting around.

The official unemployment numbers are around 6% these days which is deemed to be nearly "normal." But the under-employment rate is huge, at least twice that. Lots of people (of all ages) have stopped looking for work, or are working at jobs well below their skill or educational level. Good thru-hiker candidates, maybe?