Diffeence in Weather March 1 Vs 18th?

[gonewalkabout]

I was planning to start my thru on March 3rd. Someone at the ATC in Harpersferry said I see a significant improvement in weather if I waited 15 or so days until around the 18th of March. How acurate is this?

I know the weather is highly variable in the mountains and anything can happen at any time but in gerneral what do you think. I iked the LT in VT form the end of October to the the week before Thanksgiving so I am used to nights in the low teens. I know I could get snow off for a day or two. Is it likely to get snow off for musch longer or on multile ocassions?

Before you ask I am trying to get done before Labor day if possible.

Thanks

[Rockhound]

Either way you could hit some nasty weather. I'd just leave on the 3rd and if the weather turns too bad there's plenty of places to hole up for a day or two at the beginning of the trail. Just get a weather report before you enter the Smokies. You'll be fine.

[bigcranky]

You should be fine starting 3/3, especially if you want to finish by Labor Day. The extra two weeks will make more of a difference in being able to slow down (a little) on the hike than they will in the weather, in my opinion.

[Slo-go'en]

No doubt what the ATC says is statically true, but one year early March could be great and late March nasty. Or the other way around. Its close enough to beginning of March now, so you should be able to get a reasonably good long range forcast for the month. Lately, it seems it's been pretty warm down south and not too many storms and those have been moving through quickly.

[Lilred]

It's 71 in Nashville right now. Tomorrow morning it's supposed to be 29. It really is a crapshoot when it comes to the weather down here. I'd leave March 3rd.

[q-tip]

I am leaving March 4th, weather be what it be. I still have a fair bit of anxiety about the trip having been very sick in july last year, but I am leaving anyway. I am giving myself 7 months to finish, most of that includes a very slow start of 8 +/- miles a day for the first week and some zero days for my body to heal. I am bringing a warm bag, if I have to I'll just jump in and wait it out with the rest of the crowd.

[Pedaling Fool]

Night time temps won't be much different --although the average will probably be a little warmer, but it'll be cold at night. Maybe a little warmer daytime temps. I've hiked thru that area 4 times and I've seen snow on two seperate trips during the month of May.

[Panzer1]

"March goes in like a lion and out like a lamb.."

Does that answer your question?

Panzer

[Jack Tarlin]

The folks in Harpers Ferry told you exactly right.

While it's true that some years, the early March starters have great weather, you have a MUCH greater chance of experiencing milder and warmer weather by waiting 2 or 3 weeks to start.

In addition, if you do this, you'll almost certainly experience fewer shortened or abbreviated hiking days; will have less unplanned time off in towns; will spend less time in towns; and will probably save several hundred dollars.

[Nean]

I was planning to start my thru on March 3rd. Someone at the ATC in Harpersferry said I see a significant improvement in weather if I waited 15 or so days until around the 18th of March. How acurate is this?

I know the weather is highly variable in the mountains and anything can happen at any time but in gerneral what do you think. I iked the LT in VT form the end of October to the the week before Thanksgiving so I am used to nights in the low teens. I know I could get snow off for a day or two. Is it likely to get snow off for musch longer or on multile ocassions?

Before you ask I am trying to get done before Labor day if possible.

Thanks

Go early and don't think twice about it. The world may come to an end by the third week of March!

[Pedaling Fool]

I would carry the same cold-weather gear for a March 18th departure date as I would if I started March 1st.

[Nean]

I was planning to start my thru on March 3rd. Someone at the ATC in Harpersferry said I see a significant improvement in weather if I waited 15 or so days until around the 18th of March. How acurate is this?

I know the weather is highly variable in the mountains and anything can happen at any time but in gerneral what do you think. I iked the LT in VT form the end of October to the the week before Thanksgiving so I am used to nights in the low teens. I know I could get snow off for a day or two. Is it likely to get snow off for musch longer or on multile ocassions?

Before you ask I am trying to get done before Labor day if possible.

Thanks

Go early and don't think twice about it. The world may come to an end by the third week of March!

[gonewalkabout]

Thanks everyone for all your opinons. If I can pull it all together I be there on the 3rd. Thanks agian.

[SGT Rock]

Go for it. Last year the late starters hit bad weather in early april. Weather is weather.

[Rockhound]

The folks in Harpers Ferry told you exactly right.

While it's true that some years, the early March starters have great weather, you have a MUCH greater chance of experiencing milder and warmer weather by waiting 2 or 3 weeks to start.

In addition, if you do this, you'll almost certainly experience fewer shortened or abbreviated hiking days; will have less unplanned time off in towns; will spend less time in towns; and will probably save several hundred dollars.

I don't know about "a Much" greater chance. And as far as it costing "several hundred" dollars. Please. It will most likely be a little colder with a slightly better chance of running into foul weather. Some hikers prepare for such weather and hike and some only hike when it's 72 and sunny. I guess those are the ones that are spending hundreds of dollars extra.

[SGT Rock]

I stared in January and didn't take any days off for weather - just hiked in it (I did get some frostbite on my ears one day). I did take days off for illness and family visits. I had to walk through some knee deep snow and had temps in the single digits (without windchill factor) and it worked out.

[Panzer1]

And as far as it costing "several hundred" dollars. Please.

You could easily go through several hundred dollars pretty quick by just staying a few extra nights in motels and having a few extra restaurant meals.

Panzer

[Doxie]

I started march 30th and finished the day after labor day. We got quite a bit of crappy weather, even in May on Mt. Rogers, so you can't really avoid it, you just gotta hike through it. I live in Athens, GA, and March weather here is all over the place. It's true you're slightly more likely to miss some bad weather by waiting, but who knows? It could be Beautiful in the beginning of March, and it often is. We get a lot of thunderstorms in March and wide temperature fluctuations the entire month, so it's all luck of the draw. Go when is best for you, and don't worry about the weather.

[hopefulhiker]

If you leave earlier, it may give you more flexibility later.. to take an extra zero day, and you may not be as pushed towards the end to make the Labor Day deadline.

[Rockhound]

You could easily go through several hundred dollars pretty quick by just staying a few extra nights in motels and having a few extra restaurant meals.

Panzer

Let's say this hiker starts 2 weeks earlier and a huge blizzard hits and he has to zero for 7 of those 14 days. In the beginning of the trail there are enough hostels so you don't have to use hotels unless there is a group of 3 or 4 where the money will work out to be the same. Eating out is a choice not a necessity. Let's say this hiker spends a generous $10 on food eating in instead of out. $15/day lodging + $10/day food= $25/day X 7 days for a total of $175 for the week. It still ain't "hundreds" of dollars. On the other hand if this hiker chooses to hotel by himself and eat out for every meal I could see how it could cost "hundreds".