How "late Fall" will it be around the Priest in Late Oct.

[sasquatch2014]

I know that there are weather sites but right now I can't locate them. i am wondering how "late Fall" will it be around the priest in Late Oct. I don't think I will be able to get away for my next section hike until late Oct Early Nov. the area that I ended last fall was down at Rockfish Gap. I was thinking I would head south from there for a week or so which should put we up and over the Priest. What type of weather should I be expecting down there at this time of year?

I have done some searches of the towns but all of them seem to be in the valley and so the weather is a lot different down there. I am looking for folks who know this area well and can give me a good idea of what to expect. I am from up in the Ny area and so I expect cold it is really the snow and Ice that I am wondering about? Do you typically have your snow on the ground by then and does it stick or is it a passing thing?

A second question is this if you were doing a week +/- section where would you suggest as a good spot to jump off south of Rockfish Gap that will make it in the future fairly easy to get back on the trail at the same spot?

[bigcranky]

Early November is my favorite time to hike in the South. In general, mountain lows are around freezing and highs in the 50s, with little chance of precip -- but that's a *very general* guide. Almost no chance of snow on the ground that early. The weather can change dramatically, of course, so check the forecasts as you get closer to the date.

South of Rockfish Gap the easiest on/off the trail is at Daleville/US 220. It's a major truck stop on I-81, and the trail crosses the main road about 1000 yards west of the highway. Plenty of services including a good outfitter and shuttles.

[Skyline]

That's a good time to hike, but I'd go prepared for winter. Not so much the snow, but the low temps at night and very cold rain. In other words, hypothermia weather. The Priest, Tar Jacket Ridge, Cold Mt., etc. in that section are all up there in elevation, at least for the East.

When you get to Spy Rock Rd. (formerly Fish Hatchery Rd.) you will have a resupply option in Montebello, VA. If you call the folks below from the where the top of this road intersects the AT, you might even be able to get a ride to the Dutch Haus B&B (sort of a hostel, too). They sometimes meet hikers at the bottom of the road (too hard to get a vehicle to the top; don't even ask). Call ahead and see about mailing a resupply package to them. If that doesn't pan out, there is a small store and post office in Montebello.

Earl and Lois Arnold
Montebello, VA
(540) 377-2119
dutchhausva@aol.com
earlarnold@aol.com

That's a great section. Depending upon your daily mileage you might get to US60, Rt. 501 (James River) or even further in a week. You can hitch west to Buena Vista from the US60 crossing, and west to Glasgow from the 501 crossing.

[sweetpeastu]

I live in the area. I don't think you'll need to really worry about snow or ice on the mtn. until oh...say Jan. or Feb. lol. October will be fine. As you know its always colder in the higher elevations...but typically, October in these parts can be quite warm. I typically can't hike in more than a long sleeve top in October around here.

[sweetpeastu]

Oh, um what Skyline said. Be prepared for cold temps at night and always prepare for rain. We're more likely to get rain in October than snow....in fact, I don't know of a time we've ever gotten snow in October. But do bring some light base layers. I've hiked in October locally when it was in the 70's during the day. But nights always get cold that time of year.

[Kerosene]

I covered that section in mid-October 2002 at the height of fall colors. Temps ranged from freezing early in the morning to the low fifties almost every day, with one day of rain. Unfortunately, I think the leaves will have fallen by late October, which can result in a lot of rustling noise as you wade through dry leaves, or slippery conditions if they're wet.

[fredmugs]

I covered that section in mid-October 2002 at the height of fall colors. Temps ranged from freezing early in the morning to the low fifties almost every day, with one day of rain. Unfortunately, I think the leaves will have fallen by late October, which can result in a lot of rustling noise as you wade through dry leaves, or slippery conditions if they're wet.

When I hiked that section in Oct 2007 it was right in the middle of a nasty drought. Highs in the upper 80s during the day and lows around 70. I rescued two people from the trail as I was driving to my start point and ended up taking myself off when I stopped eating.

Last year just further south the highs were around 70 and the lows in the upper 30s.

[Skyline]

Best advice is to plan for winter, hope for something better. Sure, hikers hate to carry unnecessary weight but in the fringe seasons you need to plan for anything. It could be summer-like or winter-like. Hopefully somewhere moderately in between.

[sasquatch2014]

Thanks all that gives me a good idea The main thing I was really not sure about was snow pack, or in this case lack there of. with no snow on the ground I can now plan my milage a bit easier. Thanks again for all who responded.

[Blissful]

Excellent time to go! And no snow here usually until December. Once there was some snow in Shenandoah in October but that is rare.

[Canada Goose]

Unfortunately, I think the leaves will have fallen by late October, which can result in a lot of rustling noise as you wade through dry leaves, or slippery conditions if they're wet.

A few years back, I sectioned south from Rockfish Gap to the James River (Glasgow), the week after Columbus Day. The weather was beautiful. The forest was lovely. But I almost killed myself slipping/sliding on the fallen acorns that littered the trail with the fallen leaves. Beware, especially on downhill slopes; they can be like ball bearings !

[Patrickjd9]

But I almost killed myself slipping/sliding on the fallen acorns that littered the trail with the fallen leaves. Beware, especially on downhill slopes; they can be like ball bearings !

Been there, done that!

While you need to be prepared for cold, wet weather, your chances of pleasant weather are quite good.

[sasquatch2014]

A few years back, I sectioned south from Rockfish Gap to the James River (Glasgow), the week after Columbus Day. The weather was beautiful. The forest was lovely. But I almost killed myself slipping/sliding on the fallen acorns that littered the trail with the fallen leaves. Beware, especially on downhill slopes; they can be like ball bearings !

One way to increase your hiking speed.

[fredmugs]

I know that when I hiked that section during the drought the folks at the Dutch Haus B&B were tracking trail conditions and water sources. They were also leaving water at the major road crossings. I highly recommend contacting them right before your hike starts. I also highly recommend staying there.

[bigcranky]

While you need to be prepared for cold, wet weather, your chances of pleasant weather are quite good.

I find that my chances of good weather actually improve if I am carrying all my winter gear.

[fredmugs]

I find that my chances of good weather actually improve if I am carrying all my winter gear.

Tru dat!

[Skyline]

I find that my chances of good weather actually improve if I am carrying all my winter gear.

And it won't rain if I put my pack cover on!

[sweetpeastu]

the question isn't pointless. He wasn't asking the exact temperatures of the area this time of year. He is from up north and wanted to know what to be prepared for. He was afraid there might be a lot of snow. I've lived here all my life and I've never seen snow in October. We've answered his questions many times over....its not like he was asking us to be mind readers. Why ya gotta be so......snarkey?

[Blissful]

I find that my chances of good weather actually improve if I am carrying all my winter gear.

Ha ha - this is the best advice.

[Skyline]

the question isn't pointless. He wasn't asking the exact temperatures of the area this time of year. He is from up north and wanted to know what to be prepared for. He was afraid there might be a lot of snow. I've lived here all my life and I've never seen snow in October. We've answered his questions many times over....its not like he was asking us to be mind readers. Why ya gotta be so......snarkey?

From the first post in this thread (emphasis mine):

"What type of weather should I be expecting down there at this time of year?"

"I have done some searches of the towns but all of them seem to be in the valley and so the weather is a lot different down there. I am looking for folks who know this area well and can give me a good idea of what to expect."

You've probably heard the statement, "There are no dumb questions, just dumb answers."

The OP is just doing his due diligence in trying to find out what to expect weather-wise. No, not an exact temperature but more general guidance re: cold vs. hot, wet vs. dry. Not a bad or even dumb question but one which cannot produce an accurate answer. This far from late October 2009, it is damned near impossible to give anything more than the widest temperature range or to forecast precipitation for exact dates or even a range of dates.

It's all guesswork. We've had Halloween night ice storms in SNP that I recall from 1993 or maybe it was 1994, as well as daytime temps in the 70s just a few years later. The Priest is at a higher elevation than the SNP location I'm thinking of from '93 or '94, so if anything it might be more susceptible to bad weather. To definitely say it will be one way or the other would truly be a dumb answer at this early date.