Stepping off Springer Feb 29th - What weather might I see?

[Sears]

Hi, all-
Heading off from Springer for a NOBO thru attempt early morning of February 29th. My (optimistic) hike plan has me about 50 miles south of Damascus at D+30 days. I'd really like to get your thoughts on conditions I could expect to see during that first month. I realize that most recommendations are to start in April to mitigate the meteorological badness of an earlier start, but I'm locked in to my sked at this point.

I'm packing an EMS Mountain Lite 15 Deg down bag, with silk insert, so feel like that should do me right. Shelter will be in either tent or shelter. I'll see which I prefer. Still working out my outerwear plan. I'm thinking I might need my Buffalo windshirt for that first month. It's bombproof, but heavy and not really compressible. Served me well in Welsh hill nastiness, though. I'll be in light Salomon ankle-height boots for the beginning, as well, so that I can manage potential snow a bit better.

I would be grateful for any thoughts on what you have seen in the past (or expect to see and are planning for if you are doing it in '12) in March down south.

Thanks-
Todd (Nor'Easter)

[max patch]

You need to be prepared for single digit temps at nite, hiking in cold rain for sure and possibly snow in GA, and snow for sure, perhaps deep, in the GSMNP.

[Chaco Taco]

in 2010 there was 2 and a half feet of snow through the smokies and snow drifts 5-6 feet high. Def carry some sort of Yaktrak or Microspike for sure through the high elevations. Zero bag for sure.

[Jeff]

Budget for the possibility of staying in a town a couple of nights waiting out a snow storm.

[generoll]

everything from sunburn to frostbite.

[Elder]

everything from sunburn to frostbite.

Sometimes the same time!
I expect to be ice climbing at Hog Pen Gap....

[Slo-go'en]

I'd be ready for a lot of cold rain. That sure seems to be the way this winter is going so far, even up here in the north. It's been warming up to 40 and raining, then clearing out and dipping to near zero the next day - crazzy! It's going to be a great year for the ice climbers though.

[Nean]

I started Feb. 29th once.<IMG class=inlineimg title=Smilie border=0 alt="" src="/forum/images/smilies/smile.gif" smilieid="1"> I had some weather along the way but the trail was beautiful. What green tunnel?<IMG class=inlineimg title=Wink border=0 alt="" src="/forum/images/smilies/wink.gif" smilieid="5"> though many, many more start 1st of March(ish) these days you will at least be towards the front of the crowd.<IMG class=inlineimg title=Thinking border=0 alt="" src="/forum/images/smilies/think.gif" smilieid="12"><BR><BR>I remember the next year I started Jan 18th and had better weather (maybe 6 rain days the whole trip) (more on town days) but I had the trail to myself, empty shelters, great veiws etc.<BR><BR>I do enjoy hiking with the crowd<IMG class=inlineimg title=EEK! border=0 alt="" src="/forum/images/smilies/eek.gif" smilieid="10">, but early north or late south allows more alone time with the trail. That's a little closer to heaven- for me anyways.<BR>

[Nean]

what the heck happened with that last post?!?

[Nean]

I started Feb. 29th once I had some weather along the way but the trail was beautiful. What green tunnel? though many, many more start 1st of March(ish) these days you will at least be towards the front of the crowd. I remember the next year I started Jan 18th and had better weather (maybe 6 rain days the whole trip) (more on town days) but I had the trail to myself, empty shelters, great veiws etc. I do enjoy hiking with the crowd, but early north or late south allows more alone time with the trail. That's a little closer to heaven- for me anyways.

I fixed it!

[TOMP]

i always consider throwing in a few night hikes if you cant/dont sleep in cold temps. Keeps me hiking and warm during the night and warm sleeping in the morning.

[hikerboy57]

i think its supposed to rain.

[Razor]

To answer your question---- expect anything that time of Year, Cold wet, snow, ice ,and even some sun(maybe) It is atime of season that you will see it all just hope you do not experience all the bad at once-which is possible. This is why someone above said to be prepared for some motel time-you might need to ride out a storm .The hiking will be a great experience but challenging then . Keep aware of the weather though- Good Luck

[Blissful]

everything from sunburn to frostbite.

That's about it.

You are leaving Feb 29th which is essentially the beginning of March. I left March 5th in '07. That's only a few days difference and I hit two nights single digits and no snowdrifts (though I did have snowfall twice). The years and weather vary greatly. I also carried a 15 degree bag with silk liner and thermal undies. I did fine, but I was in town during the single degree temps. I had 70s in the Smokies in mid March but snow hit there on Easter in April.

[Sears]

Thanks all. Great info. I was surprised at the snow report by Chaco Taco, though. Winter work doesn't bother me so much, but I don't see making many 15 mile days if I'm postholing through that stuff. Good suggestion for the night-hiking, too, from TOMP. That could work.

[HeartWalker]

Wait until April if pssible. If not carry a zero degree bag unless you are a very warm sleeper. On my 2010 thru attempt I started March 01 and did a lot of postholing. Good luck.

[BrianLe]

"in 2010 there was 2 and a half feet of snow through the smokies and snow drifts 5-6 feet high. Def carry some sort of Yaktrak or Microspike for sure through the high elevations. Zero bag for sure."

I started Feb 25th in 2010. FWIW, I kept literally a daily blog, so you can get a sense for what conditions were that here: http://postholer.com/journal/viewJou...entry_id=12808
The link is to the first day of actual hiking.

There was indeed a lot of snow in the smokies, but blowdowns were a significant factor until into Virginia. I carried yaktrak pro's (I do prefer microspikes now), and used them a couple of times due to ice, but would have been fine without them (YMMV). In terms of a zero degree bag --- I carried a 20F rated (but quality) bag and beefed that up with a down parka and down booties I wore inside the bag, and that worked for me; we did get temps down into the teens a few times. You might want to figure out how you'll deal with frozen boots in the morning if you've never had to deal with that before.

A windshirt might indeed be a good idea. On the colder days I wore both windshirt and a light synthetic vest, that layered combo worked well. But do have windproofing for hands, head, ears. There wasn't all that much precip for early starters my year but the early days had a lot of very cold wind.

Ditto all the good stuff that Nean said about starting on the early side.

[Trail_Name]

It has definitely been an extremely mild winter here (north Georgia), but it never hurts to be prepared for the worst!

[Sears]

Great journal, Gadget! Thanks. Extra points for 42. Nice. I'm learning a ton from it. I'll be continuing one at TJ, if I can figure out a good way to do it from the trail. Here it is: http://www.trailjournals.com/entry.cfm?id=339301 The next post will be on my final gear list. So hopefully it will be consonant with all the weather info everyone has been rolling at me in this thread.

[Papa D]

I agree with everybody that typically you would see snow, ice, wind - really rough weather for an early start like this --but I like early starts and think you should go for it -- getting ahead of the pack will be good and late February is not as crazy as say, Late January which would be really pushy -- the funny thing is that winters have changed and even the mountains that make their own weather (as they do) don't seem immune - I was out for 3 days earlier in the week and while I did have about 1" of snow here and there, I mostly hiked in a long sleeved polyester t-shirt. Obviously prepare for single digits but don't be surprised if you get some smooth sailing and nights only in the 30s.