Completion/Drop-out Rates

[Don H]

From the ATC 2,000 Miler Application:
"The Appalachian Trail Conservancy (ATC) recognizes anyone who reports completion of the entire Trail as a “2,000-miler.” The term is a matter of tradition and convenience, based upon the original estimated length of the Trail. Conservancy policy is to operate on an honor system, assuming that those who apply for 2000-miler status have hiked all of the A.T. between Katahdin and Springer Mountain, either as a thru-hiker or in sections."

My certificate says "In recognition for having hiked the entire Appalachian Trail"

I guess some people think you only need to hike 2,000 miles but the application is clear that you need to hike the entire trail, with some exceptions for emergencies.

[Jack Tarlin]

Mike and Wolf:

In reply to your comments: My earlier post was based on personal experience. I thru-hiked annually from 1997 to 2003. I've hiked hundreds of miles each year since. I've spent a great deal of time working or helping out during hiking season at hostels and outfitters. I've hosted hundreds of hikers at my home. What this means is that I've met, spent time with, or actually hiked with thousands of recent thru-hikers.

The simple truth is that the very vast majority of them are NOT purists, i.e. they are not committed to hiking the Trail in its entirety and in fact have skipped parts of the trail.

Note.....I'm not passing judgment on these people or criticizing them. How and where they hike is their business. But the simple fact is that most folks skip sections during their thru-hike, and some of them skip large sections. This does not prevent most of these folks from reporting complete thrus.

As stated earlier, this simple truth makes some people uncomfortable. How unfortunate. This discomfort does not alter the fact that the vast majority of "thru-hikers" are not purists, which is another way of saying that nearly everyone skips parts of the Trail. Very few reported "complete" hikes are in fact complete, and anyone who has spent a significant amount of time out here knows this is true.

(PS....I'm spending a few weeks helping out here at Neel Gap, just over 30 miles from Springer. I've already met
half a dozen folks who I know have already skipped chunks of the trail. How do I know this? Easy. They told me. I assure you.....anyone who doubts my thoughts on this, it's not that difficult to ascertain the facts. In the old days, you see, one tended to keep this sort of thing quiet......there was actually a stigma of sorts if one was known to skip miles. Now, nobody bothers to keep this a secret, because nobody cares. Behavior ceases to be stigmatized when everyone is engaging in it).

[LDog]

The ATC tracks completed hikes (finished the entire trail), not thru-hikes ("walk the entire Appalachian Trail in one uninterrupted journey"). The ATC says about one in four (25%) complete the trail. I believe (with no evidence) that only about half of those, or about 12% are thru-hikers (completed the entire trail in one year).

The ATC tracked, and reported on northbounders, southbounders, flip-flops, section hikers, and section hikers that reported completing the AT. In 2010 they reported completions by 426 northbounders, 45 sobos, 40 flip-floppers, and 124 section-hikers.

http://www.appalachiantrail.org/abou...il/2000-milers

[LDog]

2000 to a thru hike is like running 23.5 miles and saying you ran a marathon. Say what you want. Numbers don't lie, people do.

The total distance changes every year. A 2000 Miler certificate recognizes that one hiked the whole trail - whatever the total mileage was. I'd be very surprised if anyone thought it meant anything other than full completion. It's a name. One that has a lot of history and tradition behind it.

But, if you can't accept that, you don't need to apply for the designation. Maybe www.manpatch.org is a better fit for you?

[Don H]

Ah, I see you're correct.
I'd like to know where they get the 414 number of hikers NOBO at Katahdin in 2011.

[LDog]

I'm with you ChillyWilly...on both your comment, and the hike. My wife, our two golden's and I start 19 March. We are in no hurry so do not be surprised when you come up on us ambil'n along. Look forward to meeting you on the trail.
Zip and Troggy the Brit

If you're doing the approach trail, we'll be starting together. Else I'll be a day behind. I reckon you'll be easy to spot!

[Grampie]

As others have pointed out, innovations in gear, more facilities for hikers,and more help/support from Trail Angels and others have certainly helped keep more people on the Trail,especially in the early days. People that get thru the first critical weeks on the Trail obviously have a greater chance of completing their trip.

That being said, tho, the single biggest reason for the dramatic rise in the "completion rate" is the simple fact that in recent years the overwhelming majority of folks who report in a completed hike have, in fact, skipped parts of the Trail. In other words, the number of reported complete thru-hikes is not necessarily the number of hikes that were, in fact, complete. The vast majority of today's thru-hikers are NOT purists, i.e. they are not committed to hiking every bit of the Trail, but have no problems reporting in to Harpers Ferry that they have done so. I realize this fact makes some folks uncomfortable but the discomfort does not alter the reality of the situation, which is that the vast majority of reported "complete" thru hikes are often far from complete.

I believe what Jack said. A lot of folks today will tell a little lie to save face. No one wants to say they thru-hiked but didn't finish.

[Mike2012]

Mike and Wolf:

..................

(PS....I'm spending a few weeks helping out here at Neel Gap, just over 30 miles from Springer. I've already met
half a dozen folks who I know have already skipped chunks of the trail. How do I know this? Easy. They told me. I assure you.....anyone who doubts my thoughts on this, it's not that difficult to ascertain the facts. In the old days, you see, one tended to keep this sort of thing quiet......there was actually a stigma of sorts if one was known to skip miles. Now, nobody bothers to keep this a secret, because nobody cares. Behavior ceases to be stigmatized when everyone is engaging in it).

How do you skip portions of the trail between Springer and Neel Gap? Is there a helicopter shuttle service?

[coheterojo]

I hiked the entire trail twice. I didn't miss a single bit either year. That's because it was important to me to truly hike the entire trail. Both years I met many people who skipped sections of the trail due to any number of reasons. In 2010 people skipped entire states, like Pennsylvania, because "it was too hot" or "there's no water" or "I had to catch up with my group" or "There's a Phish concert I had to go to", etc, etc. Both years I encountered a fair amount of animosity towards being a white-blazer. As if it were a badge of honor to NOT do the whole trail. It left me a little perplexed. I mean HYOH and all but come on folks!
Many of those people said they'd go back and finish the parts they missed after they summitted Katahdin. Some did, most didn't. When I got to the 100 mile wilderness, both years, I began to see rationalizations written in the shelter logs about this type of behavior. A typical entry would deride a true white blazer purist as a snob with no friends whereas a blue-blazing, yellow-blazing sort was the real deal and it didn't make any difference because "I've decided that the definition of a thru-hiker is: if I say I'm a thru-hiker then I'm a thru-hiker.
When you 2012ers get to Maine see if you don't find the same kind of folderol. It irks me that many of the people whose names I saw in the ATC Journeys list of thru-hikers didn't do anything close to a complete hike but, ultimately, its there business. It's an honor system and obviously there's a lot of folks that ain't got none.
I know I need to just get over it and all. Don't get me wrong, it doesn't keep me up nights but I just wish people could be a little more honest about things.

[max patch]

How do you skip portions of the trail between Springer and Neel Gap? Is there a helicopter shuttle service?

Take the Freeman Trail around Blood (instead of over), hike on FS 42 instead of the trail (intersects several times from Springer to Gooch Gap), hike portions of the BMT,

get a shuttle from Woody Gap to town for a hostel stay and return to Neels the next day "to catch up with friends".

[Lone Wolf]

How do you skip portions of the trail between Springer and Neel Gap? Is there a helicopter shuttle service?

walk FS 42 from hightower gap to gooch gap like i do a lot of times

[Blissful]

2000 to a thru hike is like running 23.5 miles and saying you ran a marathon. Say what you want. Numbers don't lie, people do.

The 2,000 miler status by the ATC is simply the AT trail mileage rounded off. They clearly state to get the recognition by them, you had to have hike the entire length of it. They go by honesty, which we do hope and pray hikers have attained in their wilderness experience.

(No need to further troll)

[Slo-go'en]

Obviously, there needs to be a registration and check-in system to insure the intergerty of thru-hikers. For a nominal fee, you buy a smart card, which is inserted into a time stamp box at each shelter. This puts an encrypted time/date "stamp" on the card. You must have your card stamped at each shelter along the trail, even if you don't stay there. When you complete the hike, you send the card to the ATC for validation, then you get your 2000 mile patch.

Oh, in the case where a shelter is a significant distance off the trail, the time stamp box could be at the trail junciton, so you don't have to go all the way down to the shelter.

Think there's any chance I could get a sizable grant to develop and deploy this system?

[WingedMonkey]

[QUOTE=Slo-go'en;1261817Think there's any chance I could get a sizable grant to develop and deploy this system?[/QUOTE]

No...but you could sit at a trail crossing with a cooler and a clicker and call yourself an angel.

[LDog]

Think there's any chance I could get a sizable grant to develop and deploy this system?

Certainly. Tho I'm concerned that your process would still allow some blue-blazing, and is open to fraud by allowing someone else carry ones card. Spokes suggested micro-chipping. I assume he means sub-cutaneous - like we do dogs. That would help with fraud. Perhaps you could develop a new white paint that will trigger the micro chip with geo-tagged data? Then the ATC could verify that every single white blaze was passed.

[max patch]

Think there's any chance I could get a sizable grant to develop and deploy this system?

Unfortunately, yes.

The government has already given grant money to develop a cell phone app that will end up containing the same information as can be found in the Companion. I'm sure the government will give you as much money as you want.

[Zipper]

Just lick each white blaze. Then they can verify with DNA testing.

[map man]

I find that "2000 milers" page at ATC's web site that ChillyWilly linked to an interesting read. It seems to show that about half of aspiring NOBO thru-hikers drop out by Harpers Ferry, and then half of those who make it to Harpers Ferry drop out before Katahdin. In other words, the attrition rate stays a lot more steady along the trail than legend has it. Yes, around 20% drop out by the time they get to Fontana, so attrition is heavier in those first 160 miles, but not nearly as heavy as you would believe based on a lot of the stories you hear on the trail and here on WB.

To hear some people tell it, a huge number of dropouts take place by Neels Gap! And often the tellers of these stories seem downright gleeful about it. Not sure what's up with that. Anyway, I'm glad the folks at ATC try to keep track of these numbers, even if data collection is bound to be imperfect, since I find it more informative to deal with data collected in good faith rather than anecdotes.

[Jack Tarlin]

I have been here in Neel Gap for almost three weeks. We've had over 100 Northbounders so far and I've met most of them. I know of NO ONE who asked about being taken to a bus or train station, airport, etc. The alleged huge dropout rate at Neel Gap is very greatly exaggerated.

[LDog]

... since I find it more informative to deal with data collected in good faith rather than anecdotes.

Absolutely. While there's all kinds of possible fudging and room for error. it does show explainable trends.

I have been here in Neel Gap for almost three weeks. We've had over 100 Northbounders so far and I've met most of them. I know of NO ONE who asked about being taken to a bus or train station, airport, etc. The alleged huge dropout rate at Neel Gap is very greatly exaggerated.

But, ya gotta admit, that's a hell of an anecdotal data point right there. And it helps to validate the data.