Some new data out from the Climate Prediction Center today...

[brian039]

and it seems increasingly likely we will see an El Nino develop by early Fall.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product.../ensodisc.html

This would mean a very high snow year in the Sierras.

[leaftye]

Of course next year was my goal. I read that prediction a month or so ago, and I've been thinking about pushing back my next attempt by a year. That might be better anyway since I'll be better conditioned and have a much easier budget to work with. Snow isn't that bad, but I've already dealt with that enough, and now I want to try hiking with less snow.

[brian039]

Of course next year was my goal. I read that prediction a month or so ago, and I've been thinking about pushing back my next attempt by a year. That might be better anyway since I'll be better conditioned and have a much easier budget to work with. Snow isn't that bad, but I've already dealt with that enough, and now I want to try hiking with less snow.

Yeah, of course next year is my year. I have zero snow experience...oh well.

[Snowleopard]

Brian, you could get some snow experience by hiking in the southern mountains whenever they get a nice snow storm and finding a course [elsewhere] that teaches iceaxe self arrest. Whether that would be enough to think about the PCT in a high snow year, someone with more experience out there will have to answer. I don't have much experience on technical snow terrain, but for the little that I've done having previously done a lot of snow walking and xc skiiing it seemed I could move more efficiently than some others.

[brian039]

Brian, you could get some snow experience by hiking in the southern mountains whenever they get a nice snow storm and finding a course [elsewhere] that teaches iceaxe self arrest. Whether that would be enough to think about the PCT in a high snow year, someone with more experience out there will have to answer. I don't have much experience on technical snow terrain, but for the little that I've done having previously done a lot of snow walking and xc skiiing it seemed I could move more efficiently than some others.

I will definitely take that advice as well as getting some education on orienteering and swift-water crossings. I have some friends that I hiked the AT with who are on the PCT now. They just finished frolicking through the practically snow-free Sierras. I sure wish I had joined them this year!

[leaftye]

Yeah, you can definitely get your experience in southern California. Don't skip San Jacinto just because there is snow. That snow can give you very good experience. It might be tough because you're learning, so take a little extra food so you have the time, and maybe change up your gear so you'll be okay. Changing up gear might just be having a pot so you can melt snow if you're moving too slow to make it to the next running water, and maybe having microspikes so you can walk without sliding. Trekking poles will help you keep your balance on the slippery surface, and having snow cups on them will prevent the tip from sinking and causing a slip that will bend or break your pole. Maybe carry an ice axe so you can get some experience carrying and possibly using it...and using it to chop steps is easier on the ankles since you don't have to kick steps as much.

Snow is really not that big of a deal. I like it sometimes, especially when I hike on it early before there are a bunch of rotten misplaced foot steps and sun cups and before the snow gets soft. Soft snow sucks, especially when it's just under a layer of hard snow that's almost strong enough to support your weight. Hard snow is nice when it doesn't have sun cups.

So definitely hike San Jacinto for your snow experience. Better there than Baden Powell. By the time you get to Baden Powell the snow might be soft, and if you try to go off trail to hike on dirt, you'll find the dirt just as soft and you'll mess up the hundreds of hours the PCTA/SCA put into that area of trail last year.

[postholer.com]

This would mean a very high snow year in the Sierras.

An El Nino means an increased probability of an above average snow year in the southern Sierra. It is not a certainty.

-postholer