View Full Version : What will the trail of future look like?
I set foot on the AT for the first time 45 years ago in 1968. That trail and that hiking experience has no resemblance to the trail today, The trail back then had very few other hikers. You would see a few others hikers every week in the remote sections. Nobody even knew the trail even existed. Towns were few are far between, to call home was expensive and you put quarters in a payphone. It is so different today. I could not have remotely guessed how the trail and the experience would change in 45 years. I wonder what it will be like 45 years from now? Where will the trail usage number go? We don't yet have a method to count all the hikers but we know that it has gone way up. Do you think they will move to system that limits the numbers? Or are they more inclined keep expanding trail infrastructure to allow for greater numbers?
Starchild
12-04-2013, 20:48
Perhaps try the PCT or CT (CDT), things change over time, that is normal and good as change is the only way things can get better.
Leanthree
12-04-2013, 20:50
So purely on a total population standpoint: (obviously the popularity change)
There were 200 million people in the US in 1968 compared with 314 million now. There are expected to be 420.3 million by 2060. That is about the same amount of population growth in an absolute sense, but a lower percentage growth. Additionally, of this growth, about half of it it is supposed to be in the over 65 group (of which there are now 43.1 million, that is expected to grow to 92 million). While hiking is quite popular with someone who is 65, this also infers there will be far more 90 year olds and the like, of which only a lucky few are still hiking.
Based on that, I wouldn't expect the trail to get particularly more crowded simply because of population growth. Maybe 15-20% more crowded in the next 50 years. Obviously predicting the future that far out is really hard. I figured I'd give it a whirl based on the best numbers available. None of this takes into account tastes/popularity. For example The Way, the movie directed by Emilio Estevez, is boosting US visits to Camino de Santiago and A Walk In the Woods comes out next year as a movie which I'd expect to make the AT more popular.
(all numbers census.gov https://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/population/cb12-243.html)
Son Driven
12-04-2013, 21:01
Hollywood has a way of effecting the culture.
I imagine the future AT will be hiked entirely in a holodeck. You can pick the year you want to hike and get the exact conditions as everyone else did. The hard core will stay in-sim and the section hikers will wrap up the day, exit the holodeck and head to their comfy beds down the hall.
hikerboy57
12-04-2013, 21:19
in 45 years stewardship of the trail will be handed over to the amc.everyone will be thrilled.
in all seriousness, it will have to be regulated before we love the trail to death.
some of it will lose its allure due to overcrowding.somewhere a balance will be struck.
Here in NJ, it's nearly impossible to get on any beach without having to pay. With the AT becoming more popular I imagine at some point we will be paying for that as well.
rocketsocks
12-04-2013, 21:51
Here in NJ, it's nearly impossible to get on any beach without having to pay. With the AT becoming more popular I imagine at some point we will be paying for that as well.
Can't say that's not entirely incorrect, once someone figures out how to make a profit on an already taxed system.
imscotty
12-04-2013, 22:19
It's gonna be great. Amazon will be delivering 4 course meals on the trail every night with those new drones of theirs. Well, unless of course the airspace over the trail is all clogged up with all the NSA drones that will be tracking us.
Perhaps 10 years from now, sections of the trail will go to a quota system before the entire trail does. The Smokey's, SNP, the whites. Hopefully it will be a "luck of the draw" quota like the hiking trails in some places out West right now. Hikerboy might be right, If the AMC get's to decide it will a "highest bidder" system.
atmilkman
12-04-2013, 22:42
Kennebec River Shelter http://www.trendir.com/house-design/futuristic-concrete-house-with-bridge-access-and-eco-appeal-1.jpg (http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=9XFBNlaGblaNlM&tbnid=vTJuV1G8n9QcDM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.trendir.com%2Fhouse-design%2Ftag%2Funusual-homes&ei=u-efUt7TEKfl2QWLzYCIAQ&bvm=bv.57155469,d.b2I&psig=AFQjCNEeia6TNzU5slBzv-3c9ojlNmKWxQ&ust=1386297520688868)
Eventually, there will be no trail(s) or wilderness experiences. Anything resembling these things today will pass away. Everything physical is temporal like a vapor a fart in the wind. ALL the GREAT material things man has accomplished and discovered and so proudly decrees as symbols of its superiority will eventually vanish.
Look into the heart of man. What do you see? Where do you see humanity going? - think broadly. This will hint at the fate of the AT. Do you notice contempt, hubris, and self centeredness in humans, perhaps, increasing? I've noticed it in my time. Listen to how many times you hear me, mine, and I in conversations. ***GOOD NEWS though - KNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, LOVE, FAITH, PEACE, JOY, UNDERSTANDING, and HOPE ARE THERE, PERHAPS INCREASING TOO! Much rides in the balance depending on how humanity proceeds.
Much of humanity has great difficulty recognizing the connectivity of all LIFE. Division is increasing - LOOK DEEPLY AT THIS. That division will attempt to be assuaged and averted but it will only be replaced with a lie, a counterfeit, and eventually lead to an even greater division a greater loss. Creation, including humanity, will suffer although the promise of a less divided a more unified world be the rhetoric. Polar opposites are increasingly becoming more pronounced IF you look behind the curtain.
Much of humanity sees itself apart from, and above, Nature. That lack of connectivity to Nature, that lack of realization that humanity is a part, a VERY VITAL PART, of Nature, in itself, spells the fate of Nature. It's already happening and the rate in which it's occurring is increasing. Look around. Open your eyes and ears. What does that say alone about the future of Nature and the rest of the environment in eons to come? the very Nature and environment that makes the AT the AT?
If humans can't live contently as a part of Nature, being connected to all Life, what do you think is the future of human human relationships?
I still hold out hope for humanity though IF it will come down from the pedestal it has placed itself upon - IF humanity will embrace what it really is and the position it was destined. Maybe, then there will be an AT my great great grandchildren will enjoy hiking as I have and it not just be experienced on a holodeck.
hikerboy57
12-04-2013, 23:38
hey weve already survived y2k and 2 apocolypses. mankind is more resilient than you give him credit for.both our water and air are cleaner than they were 50 yrs ago. hubris has always existed. the seven deadly sins are unchanged.
dogwood, sometimes with age comes some insight and the occasional glimpse of wisdom. it is only the looking glass you see the world through thats changed.those things have always been with us.
Odd Man Out
12-05-2013, 00:49
The trail won't change much. The way people use it will change.
...our water and air are cleaner than they were 50 yrs ago."
Depends on how those things are defined and whose stats you're relying on. It's generally agreed that air pollution in the U.S. has declined in several primary pollutant categories from 1990 to 2008 as measured by the U.S. EPA. Just what do these stats mean though? For example, those figures being given by the EPA don't include CO2 emissions(and the significant consequences of this gas alone on other primary air pollutants!, these things are related, it's Ecology 101 but we cherry pick pollutants by defining what a pollutant is and act as if CO2 doesn't affect the impact of other air pollutants(primary air pollutants), very naive and purposefully misleading). These air pollution stats aren't reflective of the indoor air pollution which some say may be more hazardous than the current general national outdoor air pollution. And, in some areas, most notably the U.S.'s most populated cities air pollution is still a huge problem and in some cities is steeply on the rise. These U.S. EPA figures aren't taking into account world air pollution figures either. When it comes to stats the devil is in the details. They can be made to reach two totally opposing conclusions.
When it comes to water pollution that's another example of how water pollution is being defined. What I do know when I look through my looking glass is that the water may be cleaner because 18 - 19 of the TOP 20 fish species stocks around the world have collapsed or are well on their way to beyond the tipping pt. That is, the water may be cleaner because mankind has had a direct hand in leading these species to extinction.
To somehow reason that humanity is not having enormous negative global consequences on the rest of the environment is naive human centric thinking to the nth degree. I certainly do hope that humanity's collective knowledge and wisdom isn't being used to prolong the continuing pillaging and rape of all of the environment.
hikerboy57
12-05-2013, 06:59
the earth will survive just fine.
Old Hiker
12-05-2013, 07:31
the earth will survive just fine.
Until the sun goes nova. Which means I can leave my 0* bag at home during Feb/Mar.
T.S.Kobzol
12-05-2013, 07:36
Yeah. it will be round and spinning
Sent from my vivid imagination and delusions of grandeur
Coolest thing about predicting the future is that most of it is unpredictable.
fredmugs
12-05-2013, 09:19
I set foot on the AT for the first time 45 years ago in 1968. That trail and that hiking experience has no resemblance to the trail today, The trail back then had very few other hikers. You would see a few others hikers every week in the remote sections. Nobody even knew the trail even existed. Towns were few are far between, to call home was expensive and you put quarters in a payphone. It is so different today. I could not have remotely guessed how the trail and the experience would change in 45 years. I wonder what it will be like 45 years from now? Where will the trail usage number go? We don't yet have a method to count all the hikers but we know that it has gone way up. Do you think they will move to system that limits the numbers? Or are they more inclined keep expanding trail infrastructure to allow for greater numbers?
Back then was the trail as chewed up as it is now? In one of the AT books I was glancing at the author suggested the trail was very easy to walk on and that over the years it has eroded and exposed all the tree roots we see today. I guess that kind of makes sense.
In the future I can see WiFi (or the future upgrade) at every shelter. Hikers will be able to order re-supply packages, arrange shuttles, lodging, etc. Instead of white blazes there will be laser lighting making it virtually impossible to get lost. There will also be situational awareness head gear so you can see the trail in one eye and watch video with the other. Real time data with pictures and video of water sources, etc will be instantly accessible.
Reading a book titled "Not With Peril" about accidents and misadventure in the Presidential Range of the Whites over a span of 150 years. Before radio, satellites, weather forecasts, personal locator beacons, cell phones, high-tech clothing, hiker education and all our other modern innovations, people used to die and become injured on the trail. Now that we have all these things, people still die and become injured on the trail, for the same reasons as before. I don't think anything has really changed on the trail. It is still dangerous and challenging, which I suspect is why it is still popular.
Sorry about the typo above, that is "Not Without Peril".
I finished my thru hike 30 years ago this week.
To my way of thinking the Trail -- at least in New England -- has changed very little.
That said, I think the way hikers (and thru hikers in particular) approach their hikes very differently now. Just as kids are now programmed into soccer leagues now rather walking out the door to start pickup games with their friends, hikers seem to have adopted a program for the AT that is more laid out for them.
T
it will be 100% handicapped accessible and easy for everyone to hike, with the proper permits and fees paid.
Tipi Walter
12-05-2013, 12:45
What will the trail of the future look like?
** Prepare for more overhead traffic noise like jets and drones. I foresee the woods to be blasted and covered by "individual flying cars" hovering over my favorite camping spots, and I foresee a nonstop glut of "personal drones" to invade the woods to take pictures, etc. Right now the 100,000 or 120,000 daily airline flights overhead really can disrupt a backpacking trip. It's called Noise Pollution.
** Other than all-out war, I foresee a possible Fukushima or Chernobyl disaster in the Southeastern US and up wind from the AT as there are around 6 nuclear power plants in the TN valley east from the Smokies and Fontana. Then we may not be backpacking the AT for the next 500 years.
T.S.Kobzol
12-05-2013, 13:00
Night hiking googles
Sent from my vivid imagination and delusions of grandeur
scooterdogma
12-05-2013, 13:15
Here we at Max Patch, having a rest, with all our personal drone backpacks waiting for us to get moving again.
The trail won't change much. The way people use it will change.
That about sums it up.
Gonecampn
12-05-2013, 13:34
I heard talk of charging for permits to hike the AT coming in the future, I have no idea where that stemmed from? But I'm hoping that we can at least schedule drops using Amazon's drone delivery :)
By the millennium we were supposed to have personal flying cars High Speed Rail and the Interstate system would be ripped up and recycled. Imagine I-5 as the West-Coast Trail or I-10 as the Southern Tier trail!
cvt
Slo-go'en
12-05-2013, 17:04
Pizza and beer delivery by drone to shelters! Heck, I'd use that service :)
Hairbear
12-06-2013, 15:05
Eventually, there will be no trail(s) or wilderness experiences. Anything resembling these things today will pass away. Everything physical is temporal like a vapor a fart in the wind. ALL the GREAT material things man has accomplished and discovered and so proudly decrees as symbols of its superiority will eventually vanish.
Look into the heart of man. What do you see? Where do you see humanity going? - think broadly. This will hint at the fate of the AT. Do you notice contempt, hubris, and self centeredness in humans, perhaps, increasing? I've noticed it in my time. Listen to how many times you hear me, mine, and I in conversations. ***GOOD NEWS though - KNOWLEDGE, WISDOM, LOVE, FAITH, PEACE, JOY, UNDERSTANDING, and HOPE ARE THERE, PERHAPS INCREASING TOO! Much rides in the balance depending on how humanity proceeds.
Much of humanity has great difficulty recognizing the connectivity of all LIFE. Division is increasing - LOOK DEEPLY AT THIS. That division will attempt to be assuaged and averted but it will only be replaced with a lie, a counterfeit, and eventually lead to an even greater division a greater loss. Creation, including humanity, will suffer although the promise of a less divided a more unified world be the rhetoric. Polar opposites are increasingly becoming more pronounced IF you look behind the curtain.
Much of humanity sees itself apart from, and above, Nature. That lack of connectivity to Nature, that lack of realization that humanity is a part, a VERY VITAL PART, of Nature, in itself, spells the fate of Nature. It's already happening and the rate in which it's occurring is increasing. Look around. Open your eyes and ears. What does that say alone about the future of Nature and the rest of the environment in eons to come? the very Nature and environment that makes the AT the AT?
If humans can't live contently as a part of Nature, being connected to all Life, what do you think is the future of human human relationships?
I still hold out hope for humanity though IF it will come down from the pedestal it has placed itself upon - IF humanity will embrace what it really is and the position it was destined. Maybe, then there will be an AT my great great grandchildren will enjoy hiking as I have and it not just be experienced on a holodeck.
Great insight..the future is a canvas yet to be painted.
the outcome of the results will reflect the commitment of the people who love such places.
Blue Mountain Edward
12-07-2013, 21:51
A modern trail is multiuse. Cyclists, hikers and equestrians sharing a gravel handicap accesable rdouble track.
Sarcasm the elf
12-07-2013, 22:08
A modern trail is multiuse. Cyclists, hikers and equestrians sharing a gravel handicap accesable rdouble track.
I know you were probably being tongue-in-cheek when you wrote that, however as a matter of fact those are the urban trails of the future, only they're asphalt not gravel, horses, wheelchairs and bikes don't do well in gravel. Most of them are created from old railroad right of ways. Don't write them off, they're a great way of getting people outdoors. Check out more about them here: http://www.railstotrails.org/index.html
Pedaling Fool
12-08-2013, 08:32
MUPs suck! I've ridden on them in the D.C. area and between all the runners, lance-wannabe cyclists, baby carriages, rollerbladers, dogs on long leashes....I'll stick to the roads, because I am faster than Lance:). AT needs to remain a single-use trail.
Pedaling Fool
12-08-2013, 08:37
BTW, here's another MUP that is attempting to allow people to travel off-road along the east coast, but there are still some road sections, still a work in progress... http://www.greenway.org/
And one other thing I hate about MUPs: You must yeild at all road crossings; that can get old real fast in town.
And one other thing I hate about MUPs: You must yeild at all road crossings; that can get old real fast in town.
Well you have to do that riding on the streets too. But the streets don't have gates and bollards to weave around while doing so.
I set foot on the AT for the first time 45 years ago in 1968. That trail and that hiking experience has no resemblance to the trail today, The trail back then had very few other hikers. You would see a few others hikers every week in the remote sections. Nobody even knew the trail even existed. Towns were few are far between, to call home was expensive and you put quarters in a payphone. It is so different today. I could not have remotely guessed how the trail and the experience would change in 45 years. I wonder what it will be like 45 years from now? Where will the trail usage number go? We don't yet have a method to count all the hikers but we know that it has gone way up. Do you think they will move to system that limits the numbers? Or are they more inclined keep expanding trail infrastructure to allow for greater numbers?
Hiking the Great Eastern Trail http://www.greateasterntrail.net would be a similar feeling, few neighbors know that trail exists for sure. Of course the pay phones and rural crossroads stores are disappearing from the further-out Applachians as well so those aspects would be missing. The A.T. nowadays is mostly protected from resource extraction activities but those encounters remain possible on the GET. But I've already seen a trail journal note about yogi-ing water off a gas company security guard so that might not be all bad.
Pedaling Fool
12-08-2013, 14:09
Well you have to do that riding on the streets too. But the streets don't have gates and bollards to weave around while doing so.Ahh, you're correct. Sorry, I was thinking on a bike, which is just like a car; I only stop if I have a stop sign or redlight. But yes, if you're walking you gotta stop everytime.
Pedaling Fool
12-08-2013, 14:11
Well you have to do that riding on the streets too. But the streets don't have gates and bollards to weave around while doing so.Wait a minute, you're also talking about a bike:confused:
bamboo bob
12-08-2013, 15:46
You will need at Forest Service permit to hike the AT. You'll be required to file an itinerary for your trip. Every campsite and shelter will have a caretaker who will collect a fee. You will have to be a certified ATC trained backpacker.
Hairbear
12-08-2013, 16:06
Im seeing a pretty dismal picture if trends continue as they are.
Im seeing a warmer planet that has crushed the comfort zones of climate that we all take for granted today.
The demands of an ever growing populations on exhau
sted eco systems will find rivers that no longer flow to the sea due to the demands of consumption.
This will add to the ever increasing rise in ocean temperatures.
The results of which will be an escalation in the impact of natural disasters,drought,hurricanes,tornadoes,etc.
The trail systems will be a string of endless homeless shelters comprised of materials that were cut from the trail areas,leading to complete deforestation of anything close to these areas.
universal hunger will drive people to pillage crop grounds to try to feed their children,leaving not much to make it to markets for a ravenous city population.
recreational use concerns will not get much consideration from government that will be overwhelmed by a riotous population.
Hairbear
12-08-2013, 16:26
If this sounds impossible observe life in third world countries now.
The Colorado river at times does not flow to the sea.
your reports of homeless on the trail is increasing.
Natural disasters on on the rise.
due to cheap oil food that feeds our cities and us has an average of 1500 miles on it before reaching our plates.
countries are at war over resources.
the great lakes are at their lowest point in recorded history.
snow falls that feed water to western cites have declined.
fish population are crashing.
with a population of 4 times what we have would it be fair to say that we would have to consume 25 percent of what we do today. How many Americans would accept that as reality.
were all waiting for technology to fix everything,I would worship the mind that could.
What are folk's thoughts about crowding on the trail? Do you think the AT will end up like the "big" parks, where reservations for campsites need to be made in advance, and section of the Trail have designated carrying capacities?
Let's not look 45 years out, how about 10? Could you see an AT where there would be sections that allowed only a certain number of hikers on at certain time of the year (or days of the week)? What would that number be, how could it be determined (never mind enforced)? Would that be necessary for the greater good of the Trail, or would it defeat the whole purpose of an AT?
I think the "AT Experience" will continue to be more and more connected to the outside world, and less and less to the real one. Are we to the point where the day's hike is what you do between morning and afternoon cell phone calls and text messages. Guys my age do tend to go on rants about self reliance and connecting directly with the natural world--are we just old farts shaking our canes (or hiking sticks) at the future, or is this a non-issue for under 30 crowd--some of whom will be the Trail's future caretakers and volunteer managers in another 30 years?
And what about cultural diversity? Will the demographic of the AT ever begin to reflect that of the nation? Will it be able to establish a connection with a broad range of citizens who will consider it a treasure to be supported and preserved?
Just some thoughts that have me thinking,
Cosmo