View Full Version : 2014 Snow levels chatter
frisbeefreek
01-17-2014, 16:33
It's not too early to start forecasting the snow pack levels. Just saw Governor Jerry Brown declared "worst drought in 100 years".
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/reports/PLOT_SWC.2014
Snow levels in the Sierras are barely registering on the radar. Sure, several big storms could come along and dump 20 feet, but it looks like this will be a great year to start in late-February (/sarcasm).
OTOH, the Cascades look like they are at 200% of normal snow levels, so maybe a mid-May start makes more sense. Oh my, what's a hiker to do.
Looks like it will be an interesting bi-polar year.
I wonder when the first JMT hiker will finish?
Sasquatch!
01-18-2014, 01:47
It will really hurt your baseweight, but I suggest all PCT hikers carry full firefighter gear. California is already aflame. If you dont burn up by Oregon you can look forward to 900 miles of postholing up to your forehead.
See you out there.
rangeley
01-18-2014, 09:29
Up to your forehead! holy cow thats a funny image
on a side note i was skiing one day and stepped off trail to conduct a safety meeting with some friends and sank up to my armpits in a tree well. Serious laughter ensued
OTOH, the Cascades look like they are at 200% of normal snow levels, so maybe a mid-May start makes more sense. Oh my, what's a hiker to do.
:confused: I don't know what 'reports' you're getting "200% of normal" from, but the USDA NRCS Oregon & Washington SNOTEL sites in the Cascades certainly don't agree. I couldn't find any OR sites close to being up to normal to date, and only a very few WA sites (farthest North) at near normal to date - and definitely nothing at two times the 'normal'... :confused:
Granted there's still a better chance for at least WA to get much more snow this winter - OR less so, and CA has a very poor prediction outlook for much precip clear through April.
Happy trails!!!
Jim (PITA)
We can chit chat and forecast about PCT Sierras snow levels all we want right now but it is still too early to say with any good degree of accuracy what it will be like for PCTers heading into the Sierras in May right now.
I would also be mindful of the perspective of various articles you read in regards to snowpack because some relate this beta from the angle of water availability to places like LA which might make a hiker equate their slant/perspective with conditions on the ground as a hiker. What do you think Ca Gov Jerry Brown is mainly interested when he's quoted as saying "worst drought in 100 years?" I strongly doubt when he made that statement he had PCT thru-hikers in mind going through the Sierras in late may/ early June.
Slo-go'en
01-18-2014, 23:31
If much of the PCT remains a tinder box, I'd be packing a couple of industrial strength dust masks just in case you get caught in some thick smoke from a big burn. I've pretty much lost any interest in hiking out west due to this worsening problem. I'd really hate to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Be really careful out there !
I would also be mindful of the perspective of various articles you read in regards to snowpack because some relate this beta from the angle of water availability to places like LA which might make a hiker equate their slant/perspective with conditions on the ground as a hiker. What do you think Ca Gov Jerry Brown is mainly interested when he's quoted as saying "worst drought in 100 years?" I strongly doubt when he made that statement he had PCT thru-hikers in mind going through the Sierras in late may/ early June.
Of course 'nobody' is very interested in PCT thrus - we are but a very tiny drop in a normally full bucket... Most of the western 'snow' reporting sites do deal directly with the future availability of water & that is why the agency sites are continually funded, but it doesn't mean that hikers cannot utilize the same information even though the data is more concerned with the water supply, of which the biggest user in CA is agriculture - mostly in the Sacramento & San Joaquin Valleys... In CA the snowpack is the water supply, and this will be the third year in a row with well below average snowpack... I don't take much stock in many 'news' reports (usually 'sensationalized'), but do take stock of the scientific data and the improved long range forecasting - and evidently so does the CA governor... On Jan.16th, NOAA's NWS Climate Prediction Center released the latest 1 month (Feb.) & 3 month (Feb/Mar/Apr) outlooks (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/page2.gif) which predict below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures for most of CA - that with an already record low snowpack for this time of year... No matter how many storms do come through before mid May there is no way it can build up to a near normal snowpack depth - and none of the various computer simulations show any significant chain of storms needed to do so through April (April 1st is the average maximum snowpack - whether measured as 'depth' or 'water content')... All that said, it does NOT mean that there won't be any snow for the thrus - but rather not much of it left at all in early June.
Happy trails!!!
Jim (PITA)
Snowleopard
01-19-2014, 12:15
http://s3.amazonaws.com/dk-production/images/65660/large/CalDrought.jpg?1390004244
Snow cover 2013 vs 2014.
Sasquatch!
01-19-2014, 16:29
As enyapjr pointed out with the NOAA prediction chart for feb, mar, april, unless we get a miracle and NOAA is off, which they usually are pretty spot on, this will be the lowest snow year ever for the PCT. Its not too early.
Cali is going to burn, and water sources will be iffy.
I understand the trends. I agree with you. However, I don't approach local/regionalized weather forecasts, especially ones that are 4-5 months into the future as absolutes. Storm systems arise relatively quickly dropping several feet of snow in the Sierras unexpectedly certainly in April and sometimes May. It has been known to snow in the Sierras every month of the yr. Lingering colder Spring Sierras weather affects melt rates regardless how much snowpack. This affects trail and hiking conditions. I view the forecast data as likelyhoods not absolutes. I would be ready to make adjustments based on trail conditions closer to the time when I'm expecting to hike through by being prepared to adjust my hiking agenda/kit based on what I feel most comfortable with. You're probably going to be right in your assessment though. But, things can and do change.
In 2011 the PCT was still under a few ft of snow continuously 8600 > ft elev all the way from Chester Ca SOBO to Echo Lake CA(southern end of lake Tahoe) in mid June(started June 12 at Chester) on a section hike of the PCT I was trying to do. The few NOBO PCTers I started encountered around Quincy CA ALL had relied on GPS and/or had skipped some PCT sections and were planning on going back to hike those skipped sections. That was about 2 yrs ago or 2 PCT NOBO thru-hiking seasons ago.
More and more PCTers attempt to pin down the Sierras weather conditions/snow conditions further and further in long term advance each yr for late May. I guess it's the need felt by some that we need to know everything pertaining to a thru-hike pre hike in order to thru-hike. I follow the trends too but I'm not about to ignore other possible weather condition scenarios preparation that can arise on short notice. :)
If the snowpack levels don't pick up ohhh Cali will be DRY.
frisbeefreek
01-19-2014, 18:36
I'd be curious as to which water sources are affected by "dry" years. My memory is getting dusty, but for the most part, all the water sources I remember were pretty robust (in 2009) - Not sure a drought would have affected them (I usually did big carries to skip iffy sources - Campo-->Morena, Rodriguez-->Barrel for examples, so maybe I missed the seasonal ones). For instance, will Barrel Springs dry up (I don't know the answer - just asking)?
IMHO, there's no substitute for PCT specific up to date (the most recent) water reports for on trail drinking water for So Cal and the local in the know specific water sources available to PCTers as that info was presented at the Kick Off and as I updated it in route in towns. I can't applaud enough the informed efforts of the many PCT supporters/presenters/trail angels that I met at the KO that I gained so much PCT water info from. They really have provided an EXCELLENT resource to PCTers. Can't say enough good things about the KO and what I've learned through attending.
Someone(s) with much better more perhaps more reliable local information about Barrel Spring will prolly chime in but I think it's a rather reliable water source for PCTers.
Barrel Springs is piped into a large trough so it's my guess it's reliable.
I'd be curious as to which water sources are affected by "dry" years. My memory is getting dusty, but for the most part, all the water sources I remember were pretty robust (in 2009) - Not sure a drought would have affected them (I usually did big carries to skip iffy sources - Campo-->Morena, Rodriguez-->Barrel for examples, so maybe I missed the seasonal ones). For instance, will Barrel Springs dry up (I don't know the answer - just asking)?
Even if barrel springs is dry it is 8.9 miles into Warner Springs. That would be a better scenario than having the cache empty at Sissors crossing and third? Gate.
I think the Scissors crossing cache, since it's on the highway, does somewhat get regularly checked up on and restocked. It's a rather important cache too right before the HOT exposed traverse going NOBO. There's sometimes that other water cache on that dirt road after/near the end of the traverse though going NOBO.
I'm tired of worrying about it one way or the other. I'm going to show up at Campo, start walking north, and not stop until something stops me or I'm done.
What will be will be....
LOL. Was that a 10-K circuit breaker I heard pop. Sounds like you're on PCT information overload. :)
Wait until you get to the CDT logistics. LOL
Yup. That's what that was. :)
I'm going to send a mail drop to Mt. Laguna and figure it out from there. That's my resupply plan.
I'd be curious as to which water sources are affected by "dry" years. My memory is getting dusty, but for the most part, all the water sources I remember were pretty robust (in 2009) - Not sure a drought would have affected them (I usually did big carries to skip iffy sources - Campo-->Morena, Rodriguez-->Barrel for examples, so maybe I missed the seasonal ones). For instance, will Barrel Springs dry up (I don't know the answer - just asking)?
It's a good question, and one that will be easier to answer in the future if Halfmile continues to keep archives of the PCT water report. Keep checking the water report for updates, talk to trail angels, and adjust accordingly.
This is for you 10-K. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4VbI5zcB8Ac
Sasquatch!
01-19-2014, 21:42
Yes, water sources dry up. This will be the third low precipitation year in a row. Possibly the lowest on record.
As I hiked through SoCal last year I saw as sources stopped flowing, became trickles, stagnant, etc. Most water is from tanks, caches, in town, etc. It seems less than half of the water I utilized was natural. A few times my several day old water report would indicate flowing well, and when I arrive its stagnant.
It will be dryer and hotter than average. Count on it. I wouldnt worry about water as much as fires closing the trail.
Just be ready to carry 4-6 liters.
Sasquatch!
01-20-2014, 04:07
Looks like Cali might get some precipitation Jan
28th. Heres hoping a lot more follows.
singing wind
01-20-2014, 04:10
Too early to tell. Quite a group talking about of planning on starting between April 1-8. Hope for the best!
Looks like Cali might get some precipitation Jan
28th. Heres hoping a lot more follows.
I knew it! I should be camping at that time.
If much of the PCT remains a tinder box, I'd be packing a couple of industrial strength dust masks just in case you get caught in some thick smoke from a big burn. I've pretty much lost any interest in hiking out west due to this worsening problem. I'd really hate to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Be really careful out there !
ditto. wouldn't surprise me a bit if SOCAL closed the trail for the year south of KM.
A few times my several day old water report would indicate flowing well, and when I arrive its stagnant.
That happens to some degree even in so called avg or even higher precipitation yrs. Wter sources dry up. It is called the Mojave Desert for a reason.
...wouldn't surprise me a bit if SOCAL closed the trail for the year south of KM.
That's really jumping the gun. Before they did that they would put an open fire ban in effect. Forest Service may even show up at the KO or post info along the way or on the net warning of a high fire danger and how that specific level of fire danger relates to hikers.
Leaftye, don't you have some decent lower elev hiking alternatives in your region of SoCal?
With all this fire danger/low water level chit chat NO ONE has said anything about how that relates to PCTers and other hikers entering these areas having to be conscientious of their own hiking behavior in starting forest fires.
On Fredmug's Paradise Cafe thread he started today I spoke about a fire detour PCTers had to negotiate in 2008 over San Jacinto due to a forest fire. That fire was later determined to have been started by a hiker leaving behind a lit ember from a cigarette. Two other forest fires in 2008 that PCTers had to negotiate strongly pointed to hikers possibly having started them. In 2008 I had about 155 miles of PCT trail reroutes due to fires MOST of which were started by lightning or static electricity.
Slo-go'en
01-20-2014, 22:32
With all this fire danger/low water level chit chat NO ONE has said anything about how that relates to PCTers and other hikers entering these areas having to be conscientious of their own hiking behavior in starting forest fires.
It would be prudent for everyone to go stoveless this season, forgo camp fires and if you gotta smoke, use a pipe.
I don't understand why a dry early to mid winter would result in a high likelihood of fire in the summer. Because it's dry right now, it means less growth at 5000 feet and below. I haven't seen anything die yet, so as long as this stretch of dry weather doesn't get to that point, I don't see a problem yet. Now if this unusual extreme dryness doesn't stop, then the trail is screwed. As of now, I don't see a major fire issue. We should always be using safe fire practices, so there's nothing we can do but react should a fire sprout up.
Dogwood, I'll probably be at low elevation for my next trip. I actually welcome the rain so long as it's not severe.
A dry winter/early spring does mean less new growth of possible fuel in the lower elevations. However, the fuel from previous years is still there. A dry year means that the brush dries out earlier in the year and the potential fire season is much longer since it starts earlier meaning more chances of a fire starting. In higher elevations, it means that trees are more susceptible to the the pine beatle which can and has killed off large sections of forests and leaves a giant tinderbox just waiting to go up. The forests near Big Bear already has a huge issue with this.
Why this affects thru-hikers? Because in a normal year, the fire danger is usually rated by the forest service as a medium risk (low risk in a wet year) as the brush still has some moisture during the spring period thru-hikers are hiking north through Southern California. In a dry year and particularly in a very dry year, the fire danger is rated high or extremely high as all the brush is already dried out and is a tinderbox waiting for a spark during the same period. So to conclude, a thru-hiker in a dry year has a higher chance of experiencing a fire or starting a fire then in a normal to wet year.
ChinMusic
02-03-2014, 12:31
They have gotten a decent amount of snow in the Sierras over the last week with more in the forecast. It's a good sign.
Sasquatch!
02-06-2014, 12:05
It could snow every day till April and it still wont be anything close to a normal snow year. December and January are the highest precipitation months, and we got pretty much nothing during that span.
Currently at about 13 percent in the Sierra.
Slo-go'en
02-06-2014, 12:48
Anything is got to be better then nothing. Here's hopeing it will be a wet spring for you guys.
frisbeefreek
02-06-2014, 20:06
According to the Postholer snow report, Donner Pass is at 2% of historical averages. As I write this now, CBS is telling be 2015 will be an El Nino year (aka massive amounts of snow).
ChinMusic
02-06-2014, 20:35
According to the Postholer snow report, Donner Pass is at 2% of historical averages. As I write this now, CBS is telling be 2015 will be an El Nino year (aka massive amounts of snow).
Oh, great.........
bigboots
02-24-2014, 12:10
Getting back to the snow ammounts (original post topic). With smaller volumes of snow in Sierras, is an ice ax really neccisary? Is it needed at all for a standard hike?
Getting back to the snow ammounts (original post topic). With smaller volumes of snow in Sierras, is an ice ax really neccisary? Is it needed at all for a standard hike?The need for an ice axe is dependent on the amount of snow there is when you enter the High Sierra. The amount of winter snow, the temperatures (how fast it melts off), and how late you enter are all part of the equation. As an example, 2009 was a below average year, but due to unstable weather in late May/early June, more snow fell and the melt off was delayed so the conditions turned out to be like a more typical June. Those who entered in early June needed one, but when I entered later on June 24, I didn't.
I suspect that hikers this year won't need one unless they are trying to enter in early to mid May, but I wouldn't finalize my plans until it was time to leave for the Mexican border. Though its unlikely, occasionally spring turns out to be wet and can make up for a dry winter.
bigboots
02-24-2014, 22:56
Is there aconveinient place to rent an axe in the area if the snow levels require?
I don't know about renting one, but you can always buy one once you are on the trail if you think you'll need one. At the Saufley's in Aqua Dulce (~2weeks before KM), you sometimes can arrange for a trip to REI with a trail angle. Or you can order one online somewhere and have it shipped to KM.
In a normal year, with a normal entry date it is not needed. It may be nice to have but every year many, many hikers make it through without an ice axe. There were even folks that made it through in 2011 with no ice axe or poles. YMMV.
frisbeefreek
02-26-2014, 01:05
If you haven't had specific ice axe training, don't take one. You are far more likely to impale yourself than self-arrest. If you are truly concerned about ice on the few steep sections, take a pair of step-in crampons.
Honestly, all I can recall was the chute on Forrester, and the last 50-feet on Glen and Mather passes. Everyone's risk tolerance is different, but I didn't think an axe or crampons were warranted (and I didn't carry either in an average snow year).
As of right now, it looks like a record low snow year. Crabtree Meadows is at 30%, Donner at 19%. The Cascades are about 100%, so fast early hikers will probably encounter snow in the trees.
frisbeefreek
03-02-2014, 14:15
I wonder how much the recent ridiculous storms have affected the trail? Couple of inches on burned out scrubland is going to be one heck of a wash out around Las Angeles. Looks like the Sierra's also got another 20% of snow.
bamboo bob
03-02-2014, 14:24
In 2009 at the Kickoff we were told it's a low snow year forget about axes. We ended up stopped in Lone Pine in June waiting for the storms to stop. But in June it melts like crazy. Forrester snow shute was the scarriest 5 minutes of my life and Mather was a crazt climb as well.
I'm tired of worrying about it one way or the other. I'm going to show up at Campo, start walking north, and not stop until something stops me or I'm done.
What will be will be....
yesss....what is going on now is a forming of the badnews vortex very common to the pct. the badnews vortex forms every winter and descends down across the continent. It usually dissipates with a big drunk at the KO. i don't read pct-l anymore but I bet it is off the charts with warnings and threats of doooooom. oh well....probably see ya out there somewhere north of bigbear. I'll stop and ask for a selfie.
I can set my watch based on the snowpack, water level, fire danger, do I or don't I need an ice axe/crampons? chatter that ensues every single yr. More and more each yr hikers are attempting to have all the answers further and further in advance of their start dates as if they need to do that to hike the PCT.
Go to the Kick Off. The good folks there, experienced with the PCT, offer assistance to PCTers including going over water issues, snow pack, ice axe/ microspikes questions, offer self arrest demonstrations, and other PCT issues. You'll meet a lot of regular PCTers, long distance hikers, chow down, meet gear companies, etc. It's like AT Trail Days, but at the beginning of the hike for PCT NOBOers, and IMHO offers a bit less of a hard partying like atmosphere that IMHO prevails to a greater extent at Trail Days.
Go to the Kick Off. The good folks there, experienced with the PCT, offer assistance to PCTers including going over water issues, snow pack, ice axe/ microspikes questions, offer self arrest demonstrations, and other PCT issues. You'll meet a lot of regular PCTers, long distance hikers, chow down, meet gear companies, etc. It's like AT Trail Days, but at the beginning of the hike for PCT NOBOers, and IMHO offers a bit less of a hard partying like atmosphere that IMHO prevails to a greater extent at Trail Days.
I think I'm switching gears and leaning towards hiking into the KO late Saturday from Campo, leaving Sunday early, and heading to resupply in Julian and then Idyllwild with a box at Ziggy/Bear. After that? Who knows!
At some point I'm really going to have to stop and think about this resupply thing seriously I guess. I've got my gear ready and I'm in prime hiking shape... Just counting down the days and don't feel like dealing with details....
I know for sure I'm going to walk north until I finish at the northern terminus or have to quit for some unknown reason. If I hit more snow than I'm comfortable dealing with.. well... I'll cross that bridge when I get to it.
Slo-go'en
03-03-2014, 21:46
I know for sure I'm going to walk north until I finish at the northern terminus or have to quit for some unknown reason. If I hit more snow than I'm comfortable dealing with.. well... I'll cross that bridge when I get to it.
Couple more of these last season storms to hit the mountains and you just might have some snow to deal with after all :)
Couple more of these last season storms to hit the mountains and you just might have some snow to deal with after all :)
I think the same front that just dropped about a ft of snow above 6k ft in AZ and NM, and mostly a mix below that, dropped some snow and rain on the Sierras. There are still two+ solid months of possible precipitation, largely in the form of snow, for the Sierras. It's not over until the fat weather lady sings.
These are not late season storms either. Snow storms occur through March and April in the Sierras and it's not extremely unusual to witness snowfall into May.
To date... http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdecapp/snowapp/swcchart.action
I know for sure I'm going to walk north until I finish at the northern terminus or have to quit for some unknown reason. If I hit more snow than I'm comfortable dealing with.. well... I'll cross that bridge snowfield when I get to it.
Fixed.
(sorry. I resisted for 2 days before I caved...)
frisbeefreek
03-26-2014, 23:43
So...barring a last second mega storm, this year is shaping up to be a record low. I'll be curious how clear the trail is above 11,000ft? Will there be any snow other than dark gullies and north tree slopes?
I am planning to summit Whitney the second week of April. I will post some pictures on my return.
Pedaling Fool
03-27-2014, 09:12
There's a lot of talk about how we're entering a "new normal" and stuff, but you have to remember that historical records are not all that historical. Just hope the real historical low rain/snow years don't happen anytime soon... http://news.msn.com/in-depth/scientists-past-california-droughts-have-lasted-200-years
Excerpt:
"Researchers have documented multiple droughts in California that lasted 10 or 20 years in a row during the past 1,000 years.
California's current drought is being billed as the driest period in the state's recorded rainfall history. But scientists who study the West's long-term climate patterns say the state has been parched for much longer stretches before that 163-year historical period began.
And they worry that the "megadroughts" typical of California's earlier history could come again."
Hopefully the 2015 El Nino predictions come true ... http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-el-nino-watch-alert-california-rain-20140306,0,2778584.story
lonehiker
04-12-2014, 09:03
Am I reading the current fire restrictions in CA correctly in that alcohol stoves may be used from mm 1123 north?
Zippy Morocco
04-12-2014, 11:05
http://www.pcta.org/2014/2014-pct-fire-restrictions-california-16670/ According to the PCTA there are non restricted areas all the way through California but they are few and far between until you get to mile 700. Things really start to open up after you get to Kennedy meadows. At that point there are fire restrictions but for the most part they do not include alky stoves. The other area that is affected is 1,068 – 1,123 (no alcohol stoves). I haven't found any info for Oregon or Washington yet but they received a lot of snow and should not have any (many?) closures. See you there.
lonehiker
04-12-2014, 12:09
I'm reading it the same way. I don't want to have to worry about what mm I am at in regards to alcohol stoves so will wait until 1123 to get my alcohol stove (will give me a good opportunity to use canister stove so I can make good comparison). I only want to swap out once I can keep alcohol for the remainder of trip. Looks as if you are starting a day ahead of me. Good chance we will cross paths.