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revid
01-22-2014, 19:42
For those starting next month and early March when should we be able to start to look at weather forecasts? What tools should we use? I know weather.gov is useful including this site: http://www.sophiaknows.com/atdb/weather.php - are there any others?

I know last year was one of the worst, weather wise, in recent memory. Do any weather nerds out there know yet how bad/good this year will be?

max patch
01-22-2014, 20:18
Well, the wind chill on Blood Mountain was minus 30 degrees a couple weeks ago. That might be a clue....

I'd say anybody that starts early March needs to be prepared for the worst case scenario regardless of whatever weather forecasting tool you use.

FatMan
01-22-2014, 20:26
All I know is that I have been living up here on the AT in GA for the past eight years. And as such I would never try to predict the weather. But I do know that last winter was the mildest I have seen. And this year has been the harshest so far. If I had tea leaves I would imagine they would say dress very warm in starting in March.

Pedaling Fool
01-22-2014, 20:41
There's a reason why we can predict the motion of planetary objects, land a man on the moon and study Mars up close and virtually personal, but not forecast the weather.

revid
01-22-2014, 20:47
There's a reason why we can predict the motion of planetary objects, land a man on the moon and study Mars up close and virtually personal, but not forecast the weather.

Agreed, chaos theory and all of that. However, the closer we get the more accurate we should be able to have an idea of how the weather will be our first week.

max patch
01-22-2014, 20:56
However, the closer we get the more accurate we should be able to have an idea of how the weather will be our first week.

I'll concede that. All bets are off after that, however. And no telling what its gonna be like 3 weeks down the trail when you are in the GSMNP. Don't let that first week forecast if it is unseasonably warm fake you out. Still need to assume the worst.

revid
01-22-2014, 21:01
I'll concede that. All bets are off after that, however. And no telling what its gonna be like 3 weeks down the trail when you are in the GSMNP. Don't let that first week forecast if it is unseasonably warm fake you out. Still need to assume the worst.

That's true, it's not like the weather gets progressively better the minute I head down Springer. If I have all the gear to stay warm what is the biggest threat weather wise? Is it deep snow that doesn't allow you to get to a town and hunker down? Is it high wind and rain?

GoodGerman
01-23-2014, 08:08
Think temperatures just above freezing and wind driven rain all day.

These kind of conditions suck the heat out of your body really quickly.
Bring good rain gear and don't forget to be fully aware of your body temperature and potential signs of hypothermia.

Be safe :)

daddytwosticks
01-23-2014, 08:21
Back in December, The Weather Channel was predicting warmer than average temps for January in the southeast. Like so many other things, they were wrong. :)

hikerboy57
01-23-2014, 08:59
partly something, chance of anything.

Tipi Walter
01-23-2014, 09:33
I know last year was one of the worst, weather wise, in recent memory. Do any weather nerds out there know yet how bad/good this year will be?

I believe last March in the Southeast was the warmest on record and I was carrying around too much geese and even needed my headnet for the bugs in mid March. This year could/maybe be a lot different if November or January are any indication. Remember, the big Blizzard of '93 happened in mid March and the East got hammered.


That's true, it's not like the weather gets progressively better the minute I head down Springer. If I have all the gear to stay warm what is the biggest threat weather wise? Is it deep snow that doesn't allow you to get to a town and hunker down? Is it high wind and rain?

You're right about one thing---if you have all the gear you need to stay warm then what's the problem? This is my policy---carry overkill gear between October and April and just hit the woods.

There are about 6 kind of storms backpackers must deal with---
** Rainstorms (up to heavy deluges with ground water, lake effect---with or w/o wind). Hope you have a good floor on your tent. And as the Good German says, rainstorms at 35F can really get old fast---I prefer to sit put and pull an in-tent zero during 35F rainstorms.

** Windstorms (these can get tough at times requiring a dang good tent along with ample guyouts and so if your shelter doesn't have room for 14-18 stakes, forget about it). Add rain to the mix and you will need a 4 season tent when horizontal rain comes down in buckets at 60mph up on a bald at 5,500 feet.

** Lightning storms (most people consider these to be the most dangerous and sometimes you squat inside your shelter certain you'll be dead in about 15 minutes). Bail off the ridges/peaks and camp low is about your only option.

** Snowstorms/Blizzards (these usually cripple the normal backpacker in the Southeast as we do not carry snowshoes and rarely microspikes and so postholing up a mountain with weight in 2 feet of snow is not fun.) And then there are SNOWDOWNS---when the weight of a new snow causes the "green tunnel" of the trail to collapse so you have to belly crawl for a mile or more with a pack on your back. Not fun. Along with a snowstorm comes SPINDRIFT---whereby the 3 season tent or tarp gets covered inside with blown-in snow. Most blizzards are accompanied with #2---high winds.

** Coldstorms (yes, when the temps plummet way beyond normal, you're in a Coldstorm. A coldstorm is like any other storm as above---you have to make your stand somewhere "safe" and probably have to pull a couple zero days in your shelter to get thru it.

I think there's another but I can't remember it.

George
01-23-2014, 11:26
how about hail, that can have it's own challenges

msupple
01-23-2014, 11:28
In 2012 I had an app on my phone that gave the predicted temps at every shelter on the At.

revid
01-23-2014, 13:51
Thanks Tipi, that was very helpful and a lot of information I did not know about. It seems like it would be advised to carry an extra days worth of food in March and April.

Deacon
01-23-2014, 13:56
In 2012 I had an app on my phone that gave the predicted temps at every shelter on the At.

I'd be interested to know what app you are referring to.

4eyedbuzzard
01-23-2014, 15:14
I believe last March in the Southeast was the warmest on record and I was carrying around too much geese and even needed my headnet for the bugs in mid March. This year could/maybe be a lot different if November or January are any indication. Remember, the big Blizzard of '93 happened in mid March and the East got hammered.



You're right about one thing---if you have all the gear you need to stay warm then what's the problem? This is my policy---carry overkill gear between October and April and just hit the woods.

There are about 6 kind of storms backpackers must deal with---
** Rainstorms (up to heavy deluges with ground water, lake effect---with or w/o wind). Hope you have a good floor on your tent. And as the Good German says, rainstorms at 35F can really get old fast---I prefer to sit put and pull an in-tent zero during 35F rainstorms.

** Windstorms (these can get tough at times requiring a dang good tent along with ample guyouts and so if your shelter doesn't have room for 14-18 stakes, forget about it). Add rain to the mix and you will need a 4 season tent when horizontal rain comes down in buckets at 60mph up on a bald at 5,500 feet.

** Lightning storms (most people consider these to be the most dangerous and sometimes you squat inside your shelter certain you'll be dead in about 15 minutes). Bail off the ridges/peaks and camp low is about your only option.

** Snowstorms/Blizzards (these usually cripple the normal backpacker in the Southeast as we do not carry snowshoes and rarely microspikes and so postholing up a mountain with weight in 2 feet of snow is not fun.) And then there are SNOWDOWNS---when the weight of a new snow causes the "green tunnel" of the trail to collapse so you have to belly crawl for a mile or more with a pack on your back. Not fun. Along with a snowstorm comes SPINDRIFT---whereby the 3 season tent or tarp gets covered inside with blown-in snow. Most blizzards are accompanied with #2---high winds.

** Coldstorms (yes, when the temps plummet way beyond normal, you're in a Coldstorm. A coldstorm is like any other storm as above---you have to make your stand somewhere "safe" and probably have to pull a couple zero days in your shelter to get thru it.

I think there's another but I can't remember it.The worst IMO is a freezing rain/ice storm. Trail becomes a sheet of ice. Tree limbs falling under the weight of the ice (seriously dangerous). You either hunker down in a roofed shelter for protection or bug out if safe enough and close enough to a road to do, which still takes a long time and can be dangerous when you are walking on ice covered trail with branches falling. They're rare, but they do happen. It can still get seriously cold in late Feb/early March as well.

Siarl
01-23-2014, 16:45
I can't speak for anywhere else but my hometown but every year that I visit, I usually spend a week in the Twin Counties of Grayson and Carroll. Growing up there and though out my visits there after since my twenties, I never knew a week where there wasn't precipitation of some kind. Be it rain, sleet or snow which would depend on the temperature. Everyone just needs to be prepared. Better safe than sorry.

Tipi Walter
01-23-2014, 18:04
The worst IMO is a freezing rain/ice storm. Trail becomes a sheet of ice. Tree limbs falling under the weight of the ice (seriously dangerous). You either hunker down in a roofed shelter for protection or bug out if safe enough and close enough to a road to do, which still takes a long time and can be dangerous when you are walking on ice covered trail with branches falling. They're rare, but they do happen. It can still get seriously cold in late Feb/early March as well.

ICESTORMS could be considered a separate category including both a cold Rainstorm and then possibly a Snowstorm. Icestorms as you say will destroy a section of forest and obliterate a foot trail. "Bugging out" for an Icestorm in my mind would be getting into an area of heath or an open meadow or in low rhodo where no trees are overhead and then sit put in the tent and wait it out. Thankfully, most icestorms are short-lived and blow-off/melt quickly, like within 24 hours.

I used microspikes on my last trip for the first time (I know, weird) as advancing age is causing me to hike with more care in the winter, esp when hauling 70+ lbs. For many years I hauled butt thru every type of winter landscape and slid, fell, bung abseiled, crashed, and gyrated down the icy trails. Now? GET MICROSPIKES, BOYS! It will increase your winter freedom by about 40%.

http://tipiwalter.smugmug.com/Backpack-2014-Trips-152/24-Days-in-the-Cold/i-QHLXdDH/0/L/TRIP%20152%20142-L.jpg
Kahtoolas on my last trip. (It's morning and I'm standing where my tent was placed after the snow was scraped away).

msupple
01-25-2014, 11:07
I'd be interested to know what app you are referring to.

Ive long since deleted it but it may have been this one. I found it but for some strange reason I can't cut and paste the web site. Go to google pay and search Appalachian Trail Weather....should find it.