View Full Version : ATC stats 2700 NB hikers left Springer Mountain in 2013 intending to thru hike!!!
WOW! 2700 north bound thu hikers left Springer Mountain in 2013! . Why is the trail getting so darned crowded? too much publicity???
Stats also say the number was down to 1130 in Harper's Ferry and 548 finished!
This suggests to me the amount of folks trying to thru hike is probably changing the character of the trail from what it was when I hiked in 2006. Also.. the drop out rate in the first half is really high, nearly 60 %.
What do you suspect is happening here???
All I know for sure.. is 2700 hikers in one year leaving Springer.. that's way too crowded for my tastes!!
David
All I know for sure.. is 2700 hikers in one year leaving Springer.. that's way too crowded for my tastes!!
Way too crowded for me as well. I'm sure that there are peak days when many dozens of hikers leave at the same time. I'm convinced that southbound is the way to go. I haven't seen stats on SOBO numbers but I'm sure that it is a small fraction of 2700. Also, due to the timing of a SOBO hike, the NOBO herd will have thinned out quite a bit when SOBOs and NOBOs cross paths. It just seems like a much better way to go SOBO with the bonus of going through the south during the peak foliage season. I can't see any good reason to not plan on a SOBO but I have a few years to think about it.
CarlZ993
02-24-2014, 12:59
It was crowded. Sometimes, I got caught in a bubble that I enjoyed. Sometimes I was caught in a bubble that I wished I could get away from.
Like any statistic on thru-hiking, I'm sure there is a lot of missing data. I'm sure there are a lot of thru-hikers that didn't know to or just simply didn't care to apply for their completion certificate. That will undoubtedly skew the stats some. I know one 2012 thru-hiker that never filled out her completion certificate form. She knows she completed her hike. That was good enough for her. Me? I wanted that damn certificate on my wall!
I can't imagine starting a NOBO thru hike any earlier than May. SOBO is the way I'd go too.
slbirdnerd
02-24-2014, 13:07
I'm not a thru hiker, and know this can be problematic for those wanting to avoid the crowds, but at the same time it means something positive that all these folks are a) getting out into nature and b) setting a goal to accomplish something great. Less and less of that going on in general these days...
Lone Wolf
02-24-2014, 13:11
I can't imagine starting a NOBO thru hike any earlier than May. SOBO is the way I'd go too. i did a SOBO one year. it is the way to go
Slo-go'en
02-24-2014, 13:13
The completion number maybe based on the number who signed in at Baxter as a thru-hiker. As for the large failure rate, many started in March which was brutal last year and then April and May was very wet. That took a big toll. Finally, there were all those who started with out nearly enough money to finish.
The completion number maybe based on the number who signed in at Baxter as a thru-hiker. As for the large failure rate, many started in March which was brutal last year and then April and May was very wet. That took a big toll. Finally, there were all those who started with out nearly enough money to finish.
Nope. The failure rate is high every year--you can't blame the weather or $$ for that. The problem is that the trail is just too steep and too unrewarding. This leads to injuries and boredom, which in my experience are the #1 and #2 causes of people leaving the trail.
FarmerChef
02-24-2014, 15:14
I'm curious if anyone has compiled a graph or chart showing the same statistics plotted over, say, the last 5 or 10 years. I'd like to know how those percentages have changed over time not just last year. As a side note, 2,700 is a lot of people but is still just a tiny fraction of the overall population of the United States let alone those within an hour drive from the trail itself. Not at all to diminish the stat but I have a sense of anticipation/dread at the changes I'm likely to see in my lifetime as population continues to grow and trail usage keeps pace with it (let alone outpaces it).
Teacher & Snacktime
02-24-2014, 15:17
We're not going to have enough bags.....
takethisbread
02-24-2014, 18:29
i would say many more don't register at the beginning, than at end. I would bet closer to 4000 hikers attempted to thru at least . so many people eschew the approach and simply get a ride to springer and go
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I'm curious if anyone has compiled a graph or chart showing the same statistics plotted over, say, the last 5 or 10 years. I'd like to know how those percentages have changed over time not just last year. As a side note, 2,700 is a lot of people but is still just a tiny fraction of the overall population of the United States let alone those within an hour drive from the trail itself. Not at all to diminish the stat but I have a sense of anticipation/dread at the changes I'm likely to see in my lifetime as population continues to grow and trail usage keeps pace with it (let alone outpaces it).
ATC has the numbers on their site: http://www.appalachiantrail.org/about-the-trail/2000-milers
From the the Springer to Katahdin, I took the ATC numbers and summarized them here (http://meontheat.blogspot.com/2014/01/they-never-said-it-would-be-easy.html) and here's the chart from that (numbers, not percentages).
The biggest drop off is before/at HF.
DISCLAIMER: I simply took the data available to me, it may have changed. Hopefully there are no typos.
x-axis is year, y-axis is number of hikers. So,
red = the number of hikers that registered/started at Springer,
blue = remaining at Neel's Gap (flat line = no data available)
green = number remaining at Harper's Ferry
purple = number NOBO's at Katahdin
26083
In a crowded year like 2013, hikers are starting earlier to beat the crowds but if you start in mid-April or later you'll have much of the trail to yourself.
bamboo bob
02-24-2014, 19:39
Sly's right on about starting a bit later than most. Still finish early Sept with an April date. I guess people have reasons for starting in March I just don't see them. Go back to school.
I've done about half the trail sobo, half nobo. Nobo north from Springer in early April was a zoo even 24 years ago. On the other hand my sobo hikes were mostly solitary, maybe too much so. The sobo "wave" isn't much to speak of, and after August the nobos are gone and the tourons start thinning out.
Trouble with sobo is finishing your hike in the dead of winter. I was starting to get chilled at night in southern VA in late September.
In a crowded year like 2013, hikers are starting earlier to beat the crowds but if you start in mid-April or later you'll have much of the trail to yourself.
First week of May is ideal for a nobo thru IMO.. No bubble and no winter gear.
Just Bill
02-24-2014, 21:54
First week of May is ideal for a nobo thru IMO.. No bubble and no winter gear.
Second that, you see so many people quit (which is fine) but even those that make it seem to have fought tooth and nail to get past the smokies only to find they've blown half thier budget and a quarter of thier time.
Leave a bit later and you're done in a half the time and trouble with that first stretch.
Nothing against those that want the early season experience, but your average NOBO would be far better off waiting a month.
MuddyWaters
02-24-2014, 21:54
First week of May is ideal for a nobo thru IMO.. No bubble and no winter gear.
Even the last week of April isnt bad. A strong hiker will eventually catch the bubble though, albeit a smaller more spread out one..
Squirrel Whisperer
02-24-2014, 22:56
When I was deciding on the timeframe for my hike a few years ago, everyone advised me to start in March to avoid the crowds. Now that the time has come, everyone else has apparently heard the same advise. Oh well.
Still, half the reason I'm hiking is to meet like-minded individuals, so I guess this will give me plenty of opportunities to accomplish that goal :). After all, "Happiness is only real when shared."
bamboo bob
02-25-2014, 07:23
The ATC does a too good job publicizing the AT. The trail is "romantic" enough already. The great PR job they do gets people dreaming about the AT. So many newbies who start don't understand just how hard it is for someone who hasn't developed "legs" and doesn't know the "drill" to get down the trail. They drop out at Neels Gap in droves and decide backpacking isn't for them. What I'm trying to say is: The more PR the more unprepared hikers. Books, Movies, You tube video, etc.
Shhhhhhh! Let's keep it a secret from now on................................................ ....
Starchild
02-25-2014, 09:29
Still, half the reason I'm hiking is to meet like-minded individuals, so I guess this will give me plenty of opportunities to accomplish that goal :). After all, "Happiness is only real when shared."
The social aspect was a big factor for me and why I chose to go NoBo. Sometimes it did get crowded but I was never denied shelter space, and tenting was always a option. Most of that was a good mellow time of hanging out and sharing experiences, sometimes sharing more especially in harsh weather conditions including a group meal and close company with the right person. The bad parts only were really finding a place to stay in the trail towns, had a issue in Gburg, Roan and Demascus but even then it worked out.
I don't fully understand why people don't want the social aspect as hikers are usually some of the best people I have met, but to each their own and I do not have to understand it, just as long as it works for you.
It's one thing to get to know a small group of fellow hikers and another to be in a moving group of a several dozen. That's what turns me off about starting a hike at Springer during March or April, not a desire to be antisocial. Actually one of the things about hiking SOBO that appeals to me is that I would meet many more NOBO hikers along the way, although further along on their hike than on mine, more dispersed, and less likely to include the "party" hikers who drop off early on.
takethisbread
02-25-2014, 10:55
It's one thing to get to know a small group of fellow hikers and another to be in a moving group of a several dozen. That's what turns me off about starting a hike at Springer during March or April, not a desire to be antisocial. Actually one of the things about hiking SOBO that appeals to me is that I would meet many more NOBO hikers along the way, although further along on their hike than on mine, more dispersed, and less likely to include the "party" hikers who drop off early on.
it's very possible to get solitude in March And April going nobo. you see very few hikers during the day bc everyone is going the same direction. if you stay out of shelters, camp at spots and stay out of hostels you can have a pretty quiet nobo IMO . advantages to sobo are IMO only if you start in July so u ensure best possible weather through New Hampshire and Maine and throughout the hike.
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wishing I had made an attempt years ago....The AT is just about the only thing I have ever wanted to do almost my entire life. I came close to departing about 5 years back. Hearing these numbers makes me want to consider a SOBO hike, which never really crossed my mind before; I always wanted to "walk home", having grown up in New England. Thinking I will start the one year countdown to my official first attempt for Spring 2015.......!
i would say many more don't register at the beginning, than at end. I would bet closer to 4000 hikers attempted to thru at least . so many people eschew the approach and simply get a ride to springer and go
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And I'd bet many, many people quit at Neels Gap or before and miss getting counted because of that. How many quietly slip off the trail without telling anyone they couldn't hack it? Probably hundreds.
Old Hiker
03-08-2014, 13:13
We're not going to have enough bags.....
Is this the same as "We're gonna need a bigger boat" ?
Trash bags? Body bags? Mothers-in-law? Brown paper bags for hiding the bottles to help us cope with the crowds? :eek:
The number, taken by itself, does appear to be a large crowd of people. But think of it against a backdrop of thousands of acres and miles of trail and that number doesn't seem so large. For example. Right now, where I'm at, Big Bend National Park. One of the largest parks in the National Park system. I live three miles away from the entrance. Today is the beginning of Spring Break. I work at a hotel at that place in the road and we are sold out, booked solid and have been for months. From today (Saturday, 03/08/14) until the following Saturday we will be inundated, along with every other hotel and lodging facility here. That's thousands of people. To be specific but not for Spring Break, for the month of March 2014 estimated attendance is 39,000. That's a lot of people. However, Big Bend National Park is a little over 800,000 acres. It's also one of the least visited of the Parks in the system. It takes a vehicle an hour and 45 minutes to drive from the western entrance to the eastern border of the park. On any day this week, I could go hiking on any of those trails and only encounter a handful of other hikers. I know that because I hike it at least once a week for the past six years.
So you see, 2400 folks beginning a hike that is over 2000 miles long and covers more acres than you could shake a stick at, isn't all that bad.
There are other long trails out there, like the MST, and the new Eastern trail. The Pinhoti and Benton Mackaye are two others that, while not nearly as long, might provide a more doable and enjoyable experience. And there are others. They need to be advertised, like through Backpacker, Men's Journal, Outside, and National Geo, etc.
Pedaling Fool
03-08-2014, 16:24
The number, taken by itself, does appear to be a large crowd of people. But think of it against a backdrop of thousands of acres and miles of trail and that number doesn't seem so large. For example. Right now, where I'm at, Big Bend National Park. One of the largest parks in the National Park system. I live three miles away from the entrance. Today is the beginning of Spring Break. I work at a hotel at that place in the road and we are sold out, booked solid and have been for months. From today (Saturday, 03/08/14) until the following Saturday we will be inundated, along with every other hotel and lodging facility here. That's thousands of people. To be specific but not for Spring Break, for the month of March 2014 estimated attendance is 39,000. That's a lot of people. However, Big Bend National Park is a little over 800,000 acres. It's also one of the least visited of the Parks in the system. It takes a vehicle an hour and 45 minutes to drive from the western entrance to the eastern border of the park. On any day this week, I could go hiking on any of those trails and only encounter a handful of other hikers. I know that because I hike it at least once a week for the past six years.
So you see, 2400 folks beginning a hike that is over 2000 miles long and covers more acres than you could shake a stick at, isn't all that bad.
Another interesting way to look at it: The Appalachian Trail Corridor comprises an area of about 250,000 acres http://www.appalachiantrail.org/what-we-do/conservation/natural-cultural-resource-management
To put it in a little more perspective, the trail is nearly 2,200 miles long and goes thru 14 states. However, it's land size in square miles is only ~390 sq miles. That is about 3 times smaller than the smallest state (Rhode Island -- which is about 1,200 sq miles).
And if you looked at the individual islands of Hawaii, it would be about 170 sq miles less than the size of the island Kauai.
http://geography.about.com/od/unitedstatesofamerica/tp/hawaii-islands.htm
Of course an important thing to remember is that the AT corridor is much wider than the actual trail; averaging a width of ~1,000 feet.
All in all, I don't think it's a big deal of the number of prospective thru-hikers. In the same way the millions and millions of people that visit the trail each year (or whatever the number is:confused:) ain't a big deal; it's better for the trail to have these large numbers than some idealistic smaller number.
Kaptain Kangaroo
03-08-2014, 18:20
It seems a bit silly to claim the trail is crowded because of 2700 NOBO thru hikers when the ATC estimates that 2-3 million people hike a portion of the trail each year. Sure, most of them are day hikers, but they are still on the trail.
On my thru hike, I started in early March & yes, Georgia was crowded.....well, the shelters were crowded, the trail itself wasn't. But I would have said that at least 50% of the people out hiking were section hikers or weekenders. I reached Maine at the start of July & guess what, the shelters were crowded again, every one was pretty much packed out with SOBO's and again, section hikers & weekenders.
On the issue of choosing a hike direction based on this information, I'm not sure I would decide on the direction of a thru hike based on the perception of thru hiker "crowds" considering that the vast majority of people out on the trail are not thru hikers. No matter what direction you go the start will be crowded. Timing & weather preferences would seem to be far more important reasons.
Actually,......... given that ( in my opinion) Maine & New Hampshire are the best parts of the trail. Maybe it is best to choose your direction based on what you think your chances of completing a thru are. If you are very confident you will finish, go NOBO as then you get to finish on the the very best part of the trail. If you think you have a low chance of completing the trail, go SOBO. At least then you will get to see the best parts before you bail out.
Georgia is very crowded. Last year I observed a noticeable increase in Thru Hikers and the 2700 number is not surprising at all. I thought it might be attributed to the very mild weather. However, I have already observed a higher number of Thru Hikers to date than last year. Many more February starters than typical and the first 10 days of March have seen lots of Thrus. The craziness has already started as seen by Trail Magic this weekend at both Gooch Gap and Woody Gap, all of 3.5 miles apart. TP fields are already in bloom and the dogs are finding dumped food everywhere. Sunday sees the most hikers through the Grassy Gap area as the majority continue to begin their hikes on Friday and Saturday. I am on my way out heading down to Blackwell Creek and back, and I anticipate seeing over 30 thru hikers today on that 3.25 mile stretch. Crowded? Yes indeed. And will only get worse in early April.
sadlowskiadam
03-12-2014, 13:17
Second that, you see so many people quit (which is fine) but even those that make it seem to have fought tooth and nail to get past the smokies only to find they've blown half thier budget and a quarter of thier time.
Leave a bit later and you're done in a half the time and trouble with that first stretch.
Nothing against those that want the early season experience, but your average NOBO would be far better off waiting a month.
Agreed. Starting later rather than sooner is the way to go IMO. Started last year on April 28 and was able to avoid the really bad winter and early spring weather. Although some people enjoy hiking in February and March conditions, there are many newbie hikers who start early and do not fully appreciate what they are getting into. New or inexperienced hikers (such as myself last year) would be better served starting mid- to late-April or early May to improve the chances of completing their thru hike. Ultimately, I started with some thru's, but no crowds, and was able to catch up to the back end of the bubble by the time I reached Damascus, VA. I was able to hike more miles (longer days and more sunlight), and take less 0 days as a result of bad weather (saved $ and time). Just my 2 cents.
Odd Man Out
03-12-2014, 13:24
I wonder if the crowded nature of the trail extends to the non-thru hiking season. I'm planning a 70 mile hike in central VA in the middle of July. The NOBO's should be well north by then and the SOBO's mostly not that far. How busy is the trail in these "off seasons"?
I wonder if the crowded nature of the trail extends to the non-thru hiking season. I'm planning a 70 mile hike in central VA in the middle of July. The NOBO's should be well north by then and the SOBO's mostly not that far. How busy is the trail in these "off seasons"?
Weekdays, mid-summer, and particularly if it's hot, the trail is quite empty except in some of the well-known beauty spots and national parks.
The White Mountains see hikers year-round, winter hiking is very popular. I imagine the same may be true for SNP and the Smokies. It would be a stretch to call the mountains "crowded", but you'll meet a dozen or so others on a loop up and over Franconia Ridge on a typical weekend.
I did a long section sobo from PA to VA starting in early August. Except for weekends, the trail was mostly deserted. I had shelters to myself most nights. I'd occasionally see joggers and strollers near trailheads close to civilization.
Probably 50% of the folks that leave Springer have no intention of doing a whole thru-hike. Many leave with limited cash and have to be back to school or a job in a few weeks. These folks are all counted as NOBO thru-hikers and should not be counted as such.
The stats mean little, to many do not start, stop or go through the same places. Harpers Ferry does have hours and many just go by and say oh well they are closed. A good 25-30 percent skip the approach trail after all it is not a white blaze trail. A lot of folks do not see the register in the rock under the plaque. They stop take a picture and go. I think the game cameras on the trail give the best data, just use 4 cameras that take 10,000 pics load them all up and run face recognize in google picasa 3 for every 4 of the same face you have a thru hiker. The cameras do not lie and work day and night. I could never start in May, hot bugs, I want to miss most of that. I can dress for the cold but not take off enough to stay cool. Hiking is hot business, sweaty even in the cold. Late Feb early March for me, but to each his or her own.