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View Full Version : Is this a record thru-hike year?



BonBon
10-05-2014, 18:50
I just saw that someone I have been following is #788 entering Baxter State Park for the thru. Is this an unusually high number of thru-hikers? It seems like I hear that only between 200-300 people complete the trail each year.


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map man
10-12-2014, 22:01
This is a link to a page at the ATC web site that has lots of info on thru-hiker numbers:

http://www.appalachiantrail.org/about-the-trail/2000-milers

For both 2012 and 2013 the ATC has reports of completed thru-hikes for between 500 and 600 NOBOs.

I think I read somewhere that one of the numbers that Baxter State Park keeps track of is how many hikers each year are "thru-hikers" who stay at The Birches but that number includes not just traditional NOBO thru-hikers but anyone who starts their hike south of the hundred mile wilderness. If that's true perhaps that's why the number you saw was so high.

Edit: This speculating I did in the last paragraph proved to be wrong, as both TJ and Kerosene pointed out later in the thread.

rafe
10-12-2014, 22:26
I seem to recall this morning at the ALDHA annual meeting -- Laurie Potteiger reported that it had indeed been a record year for nobo finishers.

Slo-go'en
10-13-2014, 11:13
They had really good weather this year. A bit cooler and drier then usual and a really pleasant fall. No big storms in the south during the spring and all the really hot weather stayed out west. With no big weather issues to drive people off the trail, especially early on, I can see how it would be a record year.

hikernutcasey
10-13-2014, 11:22
I think I saw this in the AT Journeys magazine but the ATC reported that something like 1,250 had made it as far as Harpers Ferry. This was the highest number they have ever recorded.

Pedaling Fool
10-13-2014, 13:11
I wonder how much of this has to do with the economy?

I know the unemployment rate has been coming down, but many say that one major factor that's being overlooked are the number of people that just stopped looking for a job; maybe they're all out on the AT:D

Kerosene
10-13-2014, 14:35
I was a section hiker, starting in Rangeley, but did not get a number when staying at the Birches (even though this section hike completed the AT for me after 41 years). I believe that the 788 number reflects single-season NOBO thru-hikers. The count was #777 on 10/4, and I know that there were at least a dozen planning to summit on 10/5, so the final number will have to exceed 800.

Slo-go'en
10-13-2014, 16:31
I wonder how much of this has to do with the economy?

I know the unemployment rate has been coming down, but many say that one major factor that's being overlooked are the number of people that just stopped looking for a job; maybe they're all out on the AT:D

Since it costs a ton of money to do a thru-hike, where did the money come from? Either they worked real hard the last few years to earn the required disposable income or they went seriously into debt. Maybe a bit of both.

TJ aka Teej
10-13-2014, 20:51
The numbers given out at Katahdin Stream are to hikers reporting they are finishing a northbound thru-hike. The number is not just how many hikers have stayed at the Birches. Not all finishing thrus stay at the Birches, they often either stay at KSC or shuttle back in from Millinocket.

rafe
10-13-2014, 20:58
Since it costs a ton of money to do a thru-hike, where did the money come from? Either they worked real hard the last few years to earn the required disposable income or they went seriously into debt. Maybe a bit of both.

If we could see the age distribution of the finishers it might tell us something. One possibility is more retiring boomers choosing to do thru hikes?

(Combined with other favorable factors, as mentioned -- eg. the weather.)

Pedaling Fool
10-14-2014, 17:44
Since it costs a ton of money to do a thru-hike, where did the money come from? Either they worked real hard the last few years to earn the required disposable income or they went seriously into debt. Maybe a bit of both.
Perhaps; it would be interesting to see the demographics breakdown. I remember the economy being blamed back in 2008 when the housing market blew up, but I had the same questions as you do in your above post, because a thru-hike is normally something you have to specifically save up money, for at least a year. Although, I did hear some were hiking off of unemployment benefits...I don't know...

rafe
10-14-2014, 17:48
Perhaps; it would be interesting to see the demographics breakdown. I remember the economy being blamed back in 2008 when the housing market blew up, but I had the same questions as you do in your above post, because a thru-hike is normally something you have to specifically save up money, for at least a year. Although, I did hear some were hiking off of unemployment benefits...I don't know...

A bit tricky to do a long distance hike while collecting unemployment benefits. At least collecting them legally, here in MA.

map man
10-14-2014, 17:55
The numbers given out at Katahdin Stream are to hikers reporting they are finishing a northbound thru-hike. The number is not just how many hikers have stayed at the Birches. Not all finishing thrus stay at the Birches, they often either stay at KSC or shuttle back in from Millinocket.

Thanks for setting me straight, TJ and Kerosene.

Upon further thought it occured to me that a better way for me to take a shot at an answer was to make an apples to apples comparison. Since we know that Kerosene was told by the folks at Baxter State Park that on October 4th the NOBO thru-hiker number they kept track of was at #777, I looked at trailjournals.com for 2013 for a hiker finishing about the same time. I found an entry on October 9, 2013 for the hiker "flatfoot" on his summit day in which he says that the folks at Baxter told him he was thru-hiker #689 for last year. Since the ATC says 2013 was a record year and it looks like 2014 is exceeding that by at least 100 hikers, by Baxter's count, it sure does look like 2014 is a record year.

Pedaling Fool
10-14-2014, 17:56
I agree, but this thread is just reminding me of when the economy went bust back in 2008 and we had a lot of hikers hit the trail and it seemed like the conventional wisdom was to blame the economy. I was skeptical, so my first comment on here was a little tongue-in-cheek remark in rememberance of that time, since I haven't seen anything mentioned on this year's large number of hikers.

BTW, before that year it seemed like the numbers were coming down year-after-year and the conventional wisdom was that this was the natural wear-off effect of the boom years caused by the book: A Walk in the Woods.

Slo-go'en
10-14-2014, 22:14
I wonder how much of this increase in numbers could be blamed on whiteblaze.net :-?

JohnnySnook
10-15-2014, 03:47
I see it as a fact of life these days. The population is growing so the number of hikers will rise. The younger generation is not looking to go straight from college to a full time job if they can find one. Many have seen there parents suffer due to the corporate world fire their parents just a year before retirement to save on pensions and insurance costs. Finally the youth are wanting more than giving into corporate america. Well those didn't didn't have kids at a young age, got married, and are stuck taking jobs they hate.

Also parents are rewarding their kids more. Moving back home is accepted. If you look at the numbers the youth under 30 are not happy taking corporate jobs at greatly reduced wages. They have huge student loans and are now looking for a job doing something they enjoy or just living life after college. The market for good jobs is very low.

Then add in the top earners of society. Many of them want their kids to experience life. Travel the world. Go on adventures. Mostly on their parents bill. Do good in school. Get a degree and we'll pay for your trip. Even if budgeted.

Lets not forget the internet has made it easier. Anyone can do it and even be coached on the trail via FaceTime or Skype. All you need is an APP on your iPhone and you can walk the trail without worry.

Thats just life these days. I often find myself wondering if as a 41 year old male solo hiking the trail is a good idea. It just seems so many kids and retires are on the trail. What will my place be? I know it doesn't matter. HYOH but it is something to think about. I don't hunk it will matter in my situation. No kids, no wife, freelance job. My only worry is my 74 year old single mother(she'd love hearing me say this) and her health. Leaving for 6 months will be hard.

JUst Sayin>>>

rafe
10-15-2014, 06:08
Thats just life these days. I often find myself wondering if as a 41 year old male solo hiking the trail is a good idea. It just seems so many kids and retires are on the trail. What will my place be? I know it doesn't matter. HYOH but it is something to think about. I don't hunk it will matter in my situation. No kids, no wife, freelance job. My only worry is my 74 year old single mother(she'd love hearing me say this) and her health. Leaving for 6 months will be hard.

JUst Sayin>>>

You'll be the odd man out, somewhat. The majority of thru-hikers are either under 25 or over 65.

rickb
10-15-2014, 06:33
You'll be the odd man out, somewhat. The majority of thru-hikers are either under 25 or over 65.

Of possible interest: http://www.nps.gov/appa/parkmgmt/upload/Main_Report-2.pdf

Demographics are towards the end, with thru hiker age distribution of those in this study on page 182.

rafe
10-15-2014, 08:08
Hi Rick -- the data in that chart doesn't seem to support my assertion, does it?

But the age brackets are problematic. Traditionally lots of life-changes happen in one's early 20s and mid-60s.

Not surprising (to me) that most thru-hikers are in the 20-39 bracket, or that very few are <20 years old.

Most surprising is the dearth of hikers >=60. I can't explain that, though I've seen a lot of smart, skilled people facing involuntary early retirement.

The report does say, "Thru hikers tend to be the youngest type of hiker on the AT, and section hikers the oldest." That rings true, for sure.

rafe
10-15-2014, 08:28
@JohnySnook: interesting observations indeed. I was 37 when I attempted a thru hike. I had very few peers in my age group, most folks I met were quite a bit older or younger. I was mid-career, but not a corporate climber. I was debt-free, child-free, recently divorced -- classic middle age thru-hiker candidate.

The bi-modal thru-hiker age distribution has long been the accepted wisdom, but the specific shapes and locations of those two peaks are probably shifting around.

The official unemployment numbers are around 6% these days which is deemed to be nearly "normal." But the under-employment rate is huge, at least twice that. Lots of people (of all ages) have stopped looking for work, or are working at jobs well below their skill or educational level. Good thru-hiker candidates, maybe?

Jeff
10-15-2014, 10:21
At The Gathering this year Laurie Potteiger mentioned that an increase in thruhikers happened when the National Geographic film came out a few years ago....and another bump when the National Geo film was released on Netflix.

rickb
10-15-2014, 11:09
But the age brackets are problematic

Agreed-- much too broad to provide the kind of insight that would support your theory -- which makes a great deal of sense.

I was surprised by some of the numbers, too. Perhaps you are like me insofar as equating the "retired" hikers you use out there with being over 65. It may be that more and more retired hikers are younger-- either because they worked in the public sector or because of the realities of today's economy.

Or, maybe they are like me. I am starting to tell people I am 10 years older than I really am so they will be impressed how good I look (for my age, of course)

10-K
10-15-2014, 11:14
On the PCT I was very aware that most people I met and saw were either younger or older than me - I'm 53. That was not an illusion or my mind creating something that wasn't there - it was absolutely true.

It didn't bother me at all - I enjoyed being around younger hikers a lot more. They seem to complain less and favored hiking over camping - which may or may not be a good thing depending on your style.

rafe
10-15-2014, 11:52
On the PCT I was very aware that most people I met and saw were either younger or older than me - I'm 53. That was not an illusion or my mind creating something that wasn't there - it was absolutely true.

It didn't bother me at all - I enjoyed being around younger hikers a lot more. They seem to complain less and favored hiking over camping - which may or may not be a good thing depending on your style.

No doubt about it, the older you get the more there is to complain about. ;)

I appreciate the strength and enthusiasm that the youngsters bring, and the deeper insights (and occasional mild cynicism) that the older crowd brings.

rafe
10-15-2014, 11:58
Rick -- not sure if this is relevant or not, but for sure the median age of attendees at ALDHA was well into middle age. I think in that population we're dealing more with those who care for and maintain the trail, rather than actual hikers. Many of them have thousands of miles of hiking in their past, but quite possibly their long-distance-hiking days are behind them.

tiptoe
10-15-2014, 12:28
No doubt about it, the older you get the more there is to complain about.
In my case, the older I get the more grateful I am to have the strength and the wherewithal, mental and otherwise, to spend time on the trail. With age has come a sense of perspective.

rafe
10-15-2014, 13:04
In my case, the older I get the more grateful I am to have the strength and the wherewithal, mental and otherwise, to spend time on the trail. With age has come a sense of perspective.

Amen to that. :)

JohnnySnook
10-16-2014, 01:06
I feel I can mix in with the younger crowd well as long as I don't let my comments about the old days get in the way. I will not use or mention I'm a member here in the beginning. I feel that I can be out spoken and often taken out of context in the real world when commenting on forums. Yes its easy to vent on a forum.
Luckily I look really young. If I shave every week most won't notice the gray hairs. In Fact I still get ID'd for beer and when I smoked all the time. Even at 40. I make it a point to the thank the cashier for IDing me these days instead of getting mad at them for making me take my ID out.
If I'm in decent shape when I depart most would think i'm 30 or under.

Will hiking on the sand of south beach with a huge pack on look funny? Yes!

Will the police hassle me? Not for long! LOL! In the beginning maybe and later probably not. I write a lot of checks to off-duty officers so I don't think my cardio will be compromised due to police searches.

I do plan to look like hiker trash so I can learn how to deal with the police on a different level. I think maybe some hikes thru the richer areas may be fun. If I haven't showered and my pack is really nasty will be interesting. I hope to video these interactions for my blog.

I do know that it will be an adventure. The un-employemnet rate is down cause many aren't looking for jobs. Many realize the american dream is dying. The middle class is disappearing. Soon the super rich will be richer. The middle class will be poor. The poor will be super poor.

I can't wait to see the first shanty / favelas in the US. Its not far off.

lonehiker
10-16-2014, 06:22
I see it as a fact of life these days. The population is growing so the number of hikers will rise. The younger generation is not looking to go straight from college to a full time job if they can find one. Many have seen there parents suffer due to the corporate world fire their parents just a year before retirement to save on pensions and insurance costs. Finally the youth are wanting more than giving into corporate america. Well those didn't didn't have kids at a young age, got married, and are stuck taking jobs they hate.

Also parents are rewarding their kids more. Moving back home is accepted. If you look at the numbers the youth under 30 are not happy taking corporate jobs at greatly reduced wages. They have huge student loans and are now looking for a job doing something they enjoy or just living life after college. The market for good jobs is very low.

Then add in the top earners of society. Many of them want their kids to experience life. Travel the world. Go on adventures. Mostly on their parents bill. Do good in school. Get a degree and we'll pay for your trip. Even if budgeted.

Lets not forget the internet has made it easier. Anyone can do it and even be coached on the trail via FaceTime or Skype. All you need is an APP on your iPhone and you can walk the trail without worry.

Thats just life these days. I often find myself wondering if as a 41 year old male solo hiking the trail is a good idea. It just seems so many kids and retires are on the trail. What will my place be? I know it doesn't matter. HYOH but it is something to think about. I don't hunk it will matter in my situation. No kids, no wife, freelance job. My only worry is my 74 year old single mother(she'd love hearing me say this) and her health. Leaving for 6 months will be hard.

JUst Sayin>>>

At 41 and you are worried about "what your place will be"...... I suspect you will fit in nicely with the "kids".......

Koozy
10-16-2014, 11:54
I was given thru hiker number 630 this year (2014), but the number is also inflated by people who did not complete a traditional thru hike. I know many, MANY people that skipped hundreds and hundreds of miles and still claimed to hike the ENTIRE trail. IMHO, a thru hike of the AT does not include aquablazing the Shenandoah (skipping up to 150 miles), skipping the entire White Mountains (saw several people do), and countless hikers yellow-blazed between towns from Gorham all the way to Monson because they were "over the hiking thing". And then theres a group of people whom I call Bill Brysons because they started the 100-mile wilderness, then found the first road out and hitched all the way to Baxter. Now I know about the saying HYOH, but if you're going to claim a thru hike, then actually do it. I did.

rafe
10-16-2014, 12:05
At 41 and you are worried about "what your place will be"...... I suspect you will fit in nicely with the "kids".......

With the moniker of "lonehiker" you may not be seeking companionship on the trail... but others do. Humans are mostly gregarious by nature. It's not all about solitude, sometimes it's about community.

Pedaling Fool
10-16-2014, 14:21
I was given thru hiker number 630 this year (2014), but the number is also inflated by people who did not complete a traditional thru hike. I know many, MANY people that skipped hundreds and hundreds of miles and still claimed to hike the ENTIRE trail. IMHO, a thru hike of the AT does not include aquablazing the Shenandoah (skipping up to 150 miles), skipping the entire White Mountains (saw several people do), and countless hikers yellow-blazed between towns from Gorham all the way to Monson because they were "over the hiking thing". And then theres a group of people whom I call Bill Brysons because they started the 100-mile wilderness, then found the first road out and hitched all the way to Baxter. Now I know about the saying HYOH, but if you're going to claim a thru hike, then actually do it. I did.Yes, it is an inflated number, but it's nothing new; it's a constant factor. Always has been that way and always will be that way.

lonehiker
10-16-2014, 17:33
With the moniker of "lonehiker" you may not be seeking companionship on the trail... but others do. Humans are mostly gregarious by nature. It's not all about solitude, sometimes it's about community.

I fail to see how my WB nickname has anything to do with my response to JohnnySnook's question.

DavidNH
10-16-2014, 20:19
it's time to stop advertizing the Appalachian Trail so much. 700 plus completing a through hike? that's way more than past years. The trail must be getting really crowded these days.. esp down south where folks haven't dropped out yet! In fact, I just checked the ATC website. As of mid September 16, 2014 2500 people had departed Springer Mountain, 1267 had reached Harpers Ferry and 173 had made it to Katahdin!.

JohnnySnook
10-17-2014, 04:58
At 41 and you are worried about "what your place will be"...... I suspect you will fit in nicely with the "kids".......


I'll be in the lowest percentage age wise of all hikers. Do I want to do it now before I get too old? Yes. The early 40's hurt more that ever.

Do I want to sleep in shelters without chain link fences keeping the bears out(I mean hikers in)? Yes.

The last time I was on the trail we were locked in from the wild once the sun went down. How many remember those days?

I do hope I fit in with the kids! They are the ones having the most fun!

Keep hiking by yourself LoneHiker. Seems kind of lonely?

10-K
10-17-2014, 06:21
I wonder how much of this increase in numbers could be blamed on whiteblaze.net :-?

I'm pretty sure main reason more people finished is because more people started. :)

rickb
10-17-2014, 06:38
Always has been that way and always will be that way.

No so much.

rafe
10-17-2014, 07:01
I'm pretty sure main reason more people finished is because more people started. :)

I'm imagining alien pod hikers spontaneously emerging (fully-formed and equipped) along the AT between Springer and Katahdin...

1234
10-17-2014, 09:31
I was given thru hiker number 630 this year (2014), but the number is also inflated by people who did not complete a traditional thru hike. I know many, MANY people that skipped hundreds and hundreds of miles and still claimed to hike the ENTIRE trail. IMHO, a thru hike of the AT does not include aquablazing the Shenandoah (skipping up to 150 miles), skipping the entire White Mountains (saw several people do), and countless hikers yellow-blazed between towns from Gorham all the way to Monson because they were "over the hiking thing". And then there's a group of people whom I call Bill Brysons because they started the 100-mile wilderness, then found the first road out and hitched all the way to Baxter. Now I know about the saying HYOH, but if you're going to claim a thru hike, then actually do it. I did.

Please do not forget the perfectionest that did not claim a thru hike on account of they missed an 11 mile section, or the person I know that did not claim a thru on account of missing the 1 mile at Fontana dam, They got the ride at the phone and then got the ride back to the hilton, missing the 1 mile. flip flop ers see so much more of what is happening than the ones that go straight in one direction, they encounter so many more thrus. You do know you hike way more than 2,000 miles just going to towns. Spending 6 months in the woods walking changes a person, only they know what they did. I do not judge them they judge themselves. If you claim you did a thru then you did.

JeffBliss
10-20-2014, 19:59
Hey, so I just wanted to add in a few things here with some numbers of my own. I completed my thru-hike on October 10th and I was number #849 to sign in at Baxter and there were at least a half dozen that I know of behind me. I'm certainly positive that the number will either be awfully close to or over 900. However, one thing to keep in mind is that I am also equally certain that the number is skewed by a lot of people who didn't entirely thru-hike (yellow blazed, blue blazed etc. HYOH btw I'm not getting into this argument.)

Also about the demographics, I turned 29 in September on the trail and hiked with a solid group of people in the 27-34 age group. We had some outliers too. A 56 year old woman completed the trail with us. So while the trail is definitely dominated by the just out of college and recently retired crowd it isn't entirely that age group. Other ages can definitely be found! :)

One Half
10-21-2014, 07:54
Of possible interest: http://www.nps.gov/appa/parkmgmt/upload/Main_Report-2.pdf

Demographics are towards the end, with thru hiker age distribution of those in this study on page 182.


Am I the only one that noticed that report was from 2000? Likely not an accurate reflection of this years hikers.

snowcone
10-21-2014, 09:45
I just want to point out that the number of hikers will definitely increase in 2016 after the release of "A Walk in the Woods" movie in 2015.....

CarlZ993
10-21-2014, 17:16
From what the Hostel & Outfitters told me last year (2013), the weather really weeded out a lot of hikers going NOBO. I'm curious how my dates at Harpers Ferry (5/29 & #243) and the Birches (8/19 & #174; actually signed the log book on 8/18 & summitted on 8/19) compare to 2014's hikers. I forgot to write down my number when I started my hike @ Springer Mtn on 3/21/13. Rats.

FYI - I saw a lot of 20+ & 50+ hikers on the trail. I saw fewer 30 & 40 yr olds. Surprisingly, I met very few under the age of 20. Anyway, I really enjoyed hiking w/ the youngsters on the trail (when I could keep up).

JeffBliss
10-21-2014, 18:24
From what the Hostel & Outfitters told me last year (2013), the weather really weeded out a lot of hikers going NOBO. I'm curious how my dates at Harpers Ferry (5/29 & #243) and the Birches (8/19 & #174; actually signed the log book on 8/18 & summitted on 8/19) compare to 2014's hikers. I forgot to write down my number when I started my hike @ Springer Mtn on 3/21/13. Rats.

FYI - I saw a lot of 20+ & 50+ hikers on the trail. I saw fewer 30 & 40 yr olds. Surprisingly, I met very few under the age of 20. Anyway, I really enjoyed hiking w/ the youngsters on the trail (when I could keep up).

I can only give you my personal numbers but here goes:

April 1st - 856 at Amicalola
July 2nd - 988 at Harpers Ferry
October 9th (Summited the 10th) - 849