Now a mild winter is forecast

[10-K]

http://news.discovery.com/earth/weather-extreme-events/winter-forecast-for-us-nothing-to-shiver-about-141016.htm

Maybe hold off on the -20 bag?

[saltysack]

Forecast looking nice for next weeks section.....


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[Trillium]

I would love to be able to join the January hike in NY but was very concerned about the weather. Maybe this allays my concerns.

[Pedaling Fool]

The long-range forecast of Discovery.com is much different than the Farmers Almanac's forecast. https://www.yahoo.com/travel/farmers-almanac-predicts-frigid-winter-in-the-us-95746947057.html

For the record, I hope Discovery is the correct one:sun

[Hot Flash]

The long-range forecast of Discovery.com is much different than the Farmers Almanac's forecast.

Oh, for pete's sake, the Farmer's Almanacs (both of them) are not scientific, and not accurate. They are pseudoscience at best -- in other words, you might as well shake some chicken bones, look at some tarot cards, have a palm reading, or throw some dice to get your predictions. Legitimate science is transparent and has published, peer-reviewed research to back it up. The Farmer's Almanac is superstitious bull*****, plain and simple.

http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/10/10/the-old-poor-richards-farmers-almanacck/

[Pedaling Fool]

Oh, for pete's sake, the Farmer's Almanacs (both of them) are not scientific, and not accurate. They are pseudoscience at best -- in other words, you might as well shake some chicken bones, look at some tarot cards, have a palm reading, or throw some dice to get your predictions. Legitimate science is transparent and has published, peer-reviewed research to back it up. The Farmer's Almanac is superstitious bull*****, plain and simple.

http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/10/10/the-old-poor-richards-farmers-almanacck/Actually, I kind of agree with you on this one; however, I don't believe it's complete hokum, there is some science, but accurate long-range predictions are still a long way's off.

The farmers almanac was pretty accurate for last year, but how much of that was luck and how much was a result of the summation of our knowledge I don't know.


Do you think the OP's link is more/less accurate or equally chicken-bone shakin' BS?

[Slo-go'en]

No sign of winter up here yet and we're half way into October. Since we had one killing frost early in the month, this has been a really long Indian summer. I wish it would rain a bit more, the stream which supplies me with water is down to a trickle.

As for the Old farmer, I've never seen them come even close to getting it right.

[Praha4]

yeah I was surprised to see that latest forecast. Joe Bastardi and Accuweather have been predicting a colder winter. Guess we'll find out soon enough. Down here in Dixie, it's nice Indian Summer weather, with cooler weather at night.

[Slo-go'en]

yeah I was surprised to see that latest forecast. Joe Bastardi and Accuweather have been predicting a colder winter. Guess we'll find out soon enough. Down here in Dixie, it's nice Indian Summer weather, with cooler weather at night.

I was in the Tampa area last week for my Mom's 90th B-day and it was way too hot for me. 90's days and high 70's night isn't for me...

[Praha4]

I hear ya, that's too warm for me too. yes last week was still warm, the cooler weather didn't arrive til after this last storm front passed thru a few days ago. We had low 50s last night here at PC Beach. But down around Tampa it's always warmer too.

[Tipi Walter]

Just bring your usual winter kit and accept what comes. Remember, last January we got hit with the Polar Vortex. So bring whatever gear you want to survive and stay warm. 3lb goose down parka? Bring it. Down booties? Yep. Down pants? Oh heck yes. High Rvalue sleeping pads? Yes. 4lb down bag? It's your ticket to winter freedom. Etc.

[Sarcasm the elf]

Boo!!!

I'm hoping for another frigid winter.

You can keep your chicken bones, I'll be outside doing my ice and snow dance!:D

[Tipi Walter]

Winter is the best!

http://tipiwalter.smugmug.com/Backpacking2006/Subzero-Blizzard-and-the-16th/i-gczGkSr/0/L/Trip%2065%20039-L.jpg

[saltysack]

Winter is the best!

http://tipiwalter.smugmug.com/Backpacking2006/Subzero-Blizzard-and-the-16th/i-gczGkSr/0/L/Trip%2065%20039-L.jpg

+1...nothing better than cold weather for a hike....lil snow adds to the fun


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[Tipi Walter]

And it's better to have warmth when you need it than to not have it. The biggest problem I see with the Ultralight philosophy is not carrying enough warmth weight when things go south. Warmth Weight is overkill clothing and sleeping bag.

[lonehiker]

Oh, for pete's sake, the Farmer's Almanacs (both of them) are not scientific, and not accurate. They are pseudoscience at best -- in other words, you might as well shake some chicken bones, look at some tarot cards, have a palm reading, or throw some dice to get your predictions. Legitimate science is transparent and has published, peer-reviewed research to back it up. The Farmer's Almanac is superstitious bull*****, plain and simple.

http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/10/10/the-old-poor-richards-farmers-almanacck/

I agree with this statement but would add that ALL long-term weather forecasting is pseudoscience, at best.

[Tipi Walter]

Even short term weather forecasting is dubious. On my last backpacking trip the Wee'tards (weather folk) called for rains 4 days straight and we got sun. My most mature opinion? If they call for a clear sunny day, plan for an F5 tornado.

[runt13]

Best forecast ever, while in deer camp 1982. The weatherman on the radio said it will be dark tonight and light in the morning!

RUNT ''13''

[4eyedbuzzard]

Your long term forecast from Al Sleet http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Mk9TdyElh8

[booney_1]

great lakes surface temps 6 degrees below last year..

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2793368/water-temperature-great-lakes-6-degrees-colder-normal-threatening-earlier-icy-winter-michigan.html

Snow cover in North America in September...largest amount since checking with Satellites (1966)
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/weather/Snow-A-jump-start.html

You never know!!!

What does a heavy acorn crop mean? Here in NC it sure looks like a heavy acorn crop. Some trails are covered by them...

I want a good snow in NC...(no ice please)!!!

[Tipi Walter]

What does a heavy acorn crop mean in NC? That you'll bust your butt going down a steep trail on these ball bearings. Then again, a couple years go by and there's no acorns, then POW a whole new batch appears.

[Pedaling Fool]

I hear ya, that's too warm for me too. yes last week was still warm, the cooler weather didn't arrive til after this last storm front passed thru a few days ago. We had low 50s last night here at PC Beach. But down around Tampa it's always warmer too.Same for my area, last week was warm warm and no breeze (average wind was way down) to blow away the heat, but we got a really good cool down here just recently.



BTW, (just for fun;)) the OP's long-range forecast was from NOAA, the same organization that totally botched last year's forecast, see here: http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-outlook-noaa-2013-2014-20131121

http://notrickszone.com/2014/02/08/another-failed-outlook-noaancep-totally-botch-2013-2014-winter-outlooks-for-usa-and-europe-exact-opposite-occurs/


And here's last year's long-range forecast from the farmer's almanac (I'm not advocating/dissin' either; I just find it interesting....)

http://farmersalmanac.com/weather/2014/08/24/2015-us-winter-forecast/

[Pedaling Fool]

And here's last year's long-range forecast from the farmer's almanac (I'm not advocating/dissin' either; I just find it interesting....)

http://farmersalmanac.com/weather/2014/08/24/2015-us-winter-forecast/
Sorry, that is this year's forecast. This is from last year, with commentary from the Washington Post http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/08/26/the-farmers-almanac-outrageous-forecast-a-stormy-super-bowl-and-frigid-snowy-winter/

[rocketsocks]

What does a heavy acorn crop mean in NC? That you'll bust your butt going down a steep trail on these ball bearings. Then again, a couple years go by and there's no acorns, then POW a whole new batch appears.
Hmm, sounds cyclical.

[tiptoe]

I take all forecasts, especially long-range forecasts, with a big grain of salt. Prep for the worst, and hope for the best.

[Tipi Walter]

I take all forecasts, especially long-range forecasts, with a big grain of salt. Prep for the worst, and hope for the best.

Prep for the best (boring), and hope for the worst.

[OwenM]

"Temperatures will be...colder in the South from Texas east to Florida, according to the forecast."

And the problem is...???
Teens at night and 30s for highs makes for great hiking and sleeping. I can wear my favorite clothes!:D

[saltysack]

Prep for the best (boring), and hope for the worst.

Perfectly said


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[imscotty]

Let me see.....

28666

Nope, definitely going to be a cold winter.

[moytoy]

I never bother to read a weather forecast and I'll only watch one on TV if she is a LOOKER. I do listen to the NOAA daily weather reports. They give what I need to know.

[Pedaling Fool]

I never bother to read a weather forecast and I'll only watch one on TV if she is a LOOKER. Good to know that I'm not the only "creepy person" here :)

[10-K]

Even short term weather forecasts for the mountains are just educated guesses. Here in Erwin it seems like we never get the worse that's forecast. 10" of snow? We might get 5". 100% chance of thunderstorms = maybe, maybe not. 40 MPH gusts? Maybe 20 MPH.

[moytoy]

Good to know that I'm not the only "creepy person" here :)
At some point in all of our lives all we have left is our creepyness. :)

I agree with 10K though. It's an educated guess. Here in FL we get as many wrong forcast as they do in the mountains.

[rocketsocks]

Let me see.....

28666

Nope, definitely going to be a cold winter.i'm affraid I don't know that one, what is the significance?

[colorado_rob]

Oh, for pete's sake, the Farmer's Almanacs (both of them) are not scientific, and not accurate. They are pseudoscience at best -- in other words, you might as well shake some chicken bones, look at some tarot cards, have a palm reading, or throw some dice to get your predictions. Legitimate science is transparent and has published, peer-reviewed research to back it up. The Farmer's Almanac is superstitious bull*****, plain and simple.

http://www.skepticblog.org/2011/10/10/the-old-poor-richards-farmers-almanacck/Well said, the mind absolutely boggles at what some folks believe.

[BuckeyeBill]

i'm affraid I don't know that one, what is the significance?

the thinner the band in the middle is, the harsher winter will be.

[rocketsocks]

the thinner the band in the middle is, the harsher winter will be.
aaah..thanks, never heard that one before.

[July]

the thinner the band in the middle is, the harsher winter will be.

Another thought is, the thicker the black bands on the ends are, the harsher the winter(wives tale). The band growth is directly proportional to the feeding that year, more feeding, increased growth equals larger blk bands.

[Tipi Walter]

When I lived in Boone we had the Woolly Worm Festival and I heard each band represents one week in winter. The brown bands mean mild, the black harsh.

[July]

When I lived in Boone we had the Woolly Worm Festival and I heard each band represents one week in winter. The brown bands mean mild, the black harsh.

TiPi, speak of the devil... They are woolly wormin' this very weekend as we speak :)

[July]

Banner Elk, NC .

[Pedaling Fool]

Quote from NOAA's prediction in the OP:

"While there's always a chance that the polar jet stream will again funnel frigid Arctic air south toward the United States, nothing in the new forecast indicates a rerun of the persistent patterns responsible for the "polar vortex." "We do not expect to see a repeat of last winter," said Mike Halpert, acting director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center."

At least the hedged a little in acknowledging a "chance":D The unscientific analysis of Farmers' Alamanac ain't looking too bad now :) https://www.yahoo.com/travel/farmers-almanac-predicts-frigid-winter-in-the-us-95746947057.html

BTW, first winter storm of the season is named Astro http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-storm-astro-snow-forecast-midwest-20141109



P.S. I know...winter is far from over and we just don't know what's in store for the future.

[WingedMonkey]

Harsh Winter Outlook Made a Bit More Dire by Siberia Snow


“A rapid advance of Eurasian snow cover during the month of October favors that the upcoming winter will be cold across the Northern Hemisphere,” Cohen said in an interview yesterday. “This past October the signal was quite robust.”


About 14.1 million square kilometers of snow blanketed Siberia at the end of October, the second most in records going back to 1967, according to Rutgers University (http://topics.bloomberg.com/rutgers-university/)’s Global Snow Lab (http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/index.php). The record was in 1976, which broke a streak of mild winters in the eastern U.S. In addition, the speed at which snow has covered the region is the fastest since at least 1998.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-06/harsh-winter-outlook-made-a-bit-more-dire-by-early-snow.html

[Slo-go'en]

Great. Sure would be nice if it snowed a lot around here this winter. Hardly got any last year.

[Pedaling Fool]

So, all-in-all, who got it better on the winter forecast? NOAA in their mild winter claims http://news.discovery.com/earth/weather-extreme-events/winter-forecast-for-us-nothing-to-shiver-about-141016.htm

OR

The chicken-bone-shakin' Farmers' Almanac with more of a bitterly cold winter https://www.yahoo.com/travel/farmers-almanac-predicts-frigid-winter-in-the-us-95746947057.html


:D:banana;)
(https://www.yahoo.com/travel/farmers-almanac-predicts-frigid-winter-in-the-us-95746947057.html)

[illabelle]

So, all-in-all, who got it better on the winter forecast? NOAA in their mild winter claims http://news.discovery.com/earth/weather-extreme-events/winter-forecast-for-us-nothing-to-shiver-about-141016.htm

OR

The chicken-bone-shakin' Farmers' Almanac with more of a bitterly cold winter https://www.yahoo.com/travel/farmers-almanac-predicts-frigid-winter-in-the-us-95746947057.html


:D:banana;)
(https://www.yahoo.com/travel/farmers-almanac-predicts-frigid-winter-in-the-us-95746947057.html)

Where is that "like" button? :)

[sfdoc]

In NJ and points north, and even some to the south, the chicken bones are shivering, which means they were more accurate.

[Slo-go'en]

Quote from NOAA's prediction in the OP:

"We do not expect to see a repeat of last winter," said Mike Halpert, acting director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center."


Yea, it turned out to be worse then last winter! My electric bill shows the average temp for the billing period. My latest bill for Jan 12 to Feb 11 shows last year the average temp was 13* and this year it was 2*.

[rocketsocks]

So, all-in-all, who got it better on the winter forecast? NOAA in their mild winter claims http://news.discovery.com/earth/weather-extreme-events/winter-forecast-for-us-nothing-to-shiver-about-141016.htm

OR

The chicken-bone-shakin' Farmers' Almanac with more of a bitterly cold winter https://www.yahoo.com/travel/farmers-almanac-predicts-frigid-winter-in-the-us-95746947057.html


:D:banana;)
(https://www.yahoo.com/travel/farmers-almanac-predicts-frigid-winter-in-the-us-95746947057.html)I don't know bout chicken bones, but my bones have been rattlin' and ponds are froze round here, doesn't happen all that often. Good ta see ya PF.

[daddytwosticks]

I'm gonna kill that damn rodent from Pennsylvania that predicted 6 more weeks of winter! :)

[Traveler]

Yea, it turned out to be worse then last winter! My electric bill shows the average temp for the billing period. My latest bill for Jan 12 to Feb 11 shows last year the average temp was 13* and this year it was 2*.

Oddly, its still among the warmer winters in North America, even with some record breaking temps in some places lately.