View Full Version : Fair warning--winter storm warning for the Southern Appalachians
Alleghanian Orogeny
10-30-2014, 11:04
Hikers should be aware of the high country forecast for the southwest VA, western NC, and eastmost TN, over the next 48-72 hours: Rain, wind, followed by snow and wind. Accumulations up to 3-6", subfreezing overnight lows, and winds of 20-30 mph, gusting to +50 mph, along the western facing upslope areas, which is essentially the entire NC-TN border.
Hopefully we won't see any post-Sandy "gee, the forecast for (insert low-elevation city) didn't say anything about snow, subfreezing temps, and gale force winds" reports from affected hikers.
Refer to www.raysweather.com for more details.
AO
saltysack
10-30-2014, 11:06
Wish I could go out...sounds like a good time to be out!! Less the freezing rain...
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Gambit McCrae
10-30-2014, 11:31
Think it will hit Deep Gap to Tray Mountain Area?
Alleghanian Orogeny
10-30-2014, 11:51
I'm not a weatherman, I don't play one on TV, and I did not sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
That said, look at the forecast: This is a large and powerful system, so a reasonably informed person would likely assume widespread effects. Given the forecast center of the low being along the NC-VA line, well east of the mountains, as the time of its primary development on Friday/Friday night, perhaps points far to the southwest would not be as affected as points more due west of the low. But I sure wouldn't bet the farm on anything other then a detailed study of a highly localized forecast. Sandy damn near killed some people along the AT. This doesn't look like a Sandy II, but gale force winds and subfreezing temps visited upon a soaking wet individual kills plenty of them every year.
AO
illabelle
10-30-2014, 13:47
Here in the Knoxville area, we haven't even had frost yet, and there's snow in the forecast tomorrow night!!??!!??
Temperatures aren't supposed to be all that low, so I imagine it will be flurries, maybe a little slush down here in the valley. Nice way to start November! :)
So I guess I am going to freeze to death this weekend. I will be in the foothills trail freezing my butt off.
Gambit McCrae
10-30-2014, 14:31
I will be on the AT in your parts A02134, But will not be freezing :) between the Fireball whiskey, and my arctic size OR down Jacket, Blackrock beanie, and montbell super spiral down hugger #0 I will be snug as a bug in the ol shelter. Cant wait!
daddytwosticks
10-30-2014, 15:50
I did my last section hike of the season last weekend. I'm not a fan of sleeping out in below freezing temps. I will, however, venture out for some day hikes over the next few months if the weather and life's obligations cooperate. :)
Slo-go'en
10-30-2014, 16:07
Haven't seen the sun up here in the Whites for close to 2 weeks now. Been raining pretty much the whole time. Every so often the clouds will lift just enough to see the summits are getting white. Now their calling for a Nor'easter. Great. I still haven't fully winterized my water supply. Been waiting for a nice day, guess that's not gonna happen.
johnnybgood
10-30-2014, 16:14
Sounds like it's time to get out the Kahtoola spikes : www.accuweather.com (http://www.accuweather.com) is calling for 4-8 inches of snow this weekend for Big Meadows in SNP .
maptester
10-30-2014, 16:18
Think it will hit Deep Gap to Tray Mountain Area? Spot forecast (http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-83.68058&lat=34.80150#.VFKcWRaKU1I) for Tray Mtn Shelter area:
Friday Night A chance of rain and snow showers before 3am, then a chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Saturday A chance of snow showers, mainly before noon, then a chance for flurries. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Windy, with a northwest wind 20 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 29. Northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Sunday Sunny, with a high near 50.
Ox97GaMe
10-30-2014, 17:42
People around the Smokies are getting stupid. I have heard 'rumors' of up to 20 inches of snow in the high country. I have to see it to believe it. Temps have been in the 60s and 70s all week here. any snow that might come is likely to melt as fast as it hits the ground. May stick to the trees and shelter roofs, but not on the warm ground. Latest forecast Ive seen for the Knoxville area is as follows:
Light dusting in the valley with up to 3 inches at the higher elevations.
The bigger concern that the GSMNP has right now is the potential for freezing rain and ice. The trees still have most of their leaves on them, so any ice will likely create widow-makers out in the woods.
Anyone headed out on the AT (or any other trails) in this region over the weekend please be careful.
happy hiking.....
Was planning to hike a 140 mile section of Mountains to Sea trail tomorrow but decided to wait until Sunday...
I am glad I did Mount Rogers area last weekend as the wind then was making me walk like a drunken sailor. Be careful out there.
ZeRoCoOl
10-30-2014, 21:02
Lets do this!
Studlintsean
10-30-2014, 22:08
Sounds like it's time to get out the Kahtoola spikes : www.accuweather.com (http://www.accuweather.com) is calling for 4-8 inches of snow this weekend for Big Meadows in SNP .
Johnnybgood- where are you seeing that report? All I can find is saying rain. I might venture out for the first flurry of the year if I can confirm it will be snow and not freeing rain. Thanks in advance
Slo-go'en
10-30-2014, 23:47
Johnnybgood- where are you seeing that report? All I can find is saying rain. I might venture out for the first flurry of the year if I can confirm it will be snow and not freeing rain. Thanks in advance
Sounds like there will be a little bit of everything depending on where (and how high) you are. We'll be lucky to get much of anything from this up here in great north woods.
I use this link for SNP weather but it targets 2,000 feet:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LWX/RECLWX
I am thinking about a day hike on Sunday but my idea of Old Rag may be the wrong hike if there is snow or ice. Maybe something in the north district would work out better.
importman77
10-31-2014, 06:52
Was planning to hike a 140 mile section of Mountains to Sea trail tomorrow but decided to wait until Sunday...
10k, you are without a doubt the fastest hiker I've ever heard of! :)
... wait until Sunday -to start-. ... :)
Now I'm not sure about that.. If the max falls it'll be over 10". The MST goes over the summit of Mt. Mitchell - I hate to think how much could be up there.
Gambit McCrae
10-31-2014, 09:51
I ended up callin off our trip as well, With having to park on a mountainous forrest road, and having to be back a t work on monday, it would be awfully frustrating to be locking on the mountain my a couple blow downs. We are going to a pocketwilderness closer to home instead, bigger fires, more whiskey. lol
I'm supposed to do my first ultra race tomorrow. In addition to being woefully unprepared (my son is almost two months old and my training fell completely apart when he was born), the weather is starting to look ridiculous. This will be interesting.
In Mckee KY expecting the light rain to turn to sleet/snow as it gets down near the freezing mark tonight into the colder tomorrow Sat A.M. with some sleet/snow accumulation before it slushing out late morning A.M into the afternoon on Sat. I'll see some flurries and icy slush.
In Mckee KY expecting the light rain to turn to sleet/snow as it gets down near the freezing mark tonight into the colder tomorrow Sat A.M. with some sleet/snow accumulation before it slushing out late morning A.M into the afternoon on Sat. I'll see some flurries and icy slush.
Are you at the hotel? If so, tell the owner - I believe his name is Bob - that Tom, the hiker who was stuck in town when it snowed 2 years ago says hi. He drove me on the 15 mile road walk to show me where the trail crossed when I left the next day.
Don't know where I'm going to stay yet. If I go to the hotel mentioning your name will they try to get me to pay for all the things you broke in the room?:)
Heck no, you might get a great deal!
I've still got his card... Robert Gabbard, Town and Country Motel.
Pretty much a non-issue here in GA at Grassy Gap. Less than a half inch but windy as heck. Low temp this morning at 28 degrees but wind chill in the mid teens. Plan on getting out a little later on.
rmitchell
11-01-2014, 11:02
Web site high on LeConte was reporting 17 inches and snow steadily falling as of a couple of hours ago.
OX may be right about snow load on the trees.
Slo-go'en
11-01-2014, 11:26
Web site high on LeConte was reporting 17 inches and snow steadily falling as of a couple of hours ago.
OX may be right about snow load on the trees.
Yeah, that's not good. Early season heavy, wet snow while there are still leafs on the trees means lots of down limbs and trees. Could be quite a mess in places. Those who insist on starting a thru hike too early might consider packing a chainsaw with them.
It's trying to snow here in the Whites, but at 37 degrees, it's having a hard time staying that way. Probably not going to get much here.
Who cares? Nice and warm in here. :)
http://terrapinphoto.com/fireplace.jpg
Heck no, you might get a great deal!
I've still got his card... Robert Gabbard, Town and Country Motel.
Talked to him on the ph this morning, after the Mayor in McKee, Mr Thompson(really nice guy), called him for me and negotiated a good hiker rate. Robert(Bob), Mr Gabbard, teh Sheltowee Trace President, is giving me his Email to comment on what a hiker would like to experience in McKee. Mckee is living up to its Sheltowee Trace trail town designation by avidly seeking hiker responses. Mckee logistically can make sense for many a Sheltowee Trace hiker! Good compact small trail town WITH HIKER SUPPORT! YIPPEE for Mckee.
If I get the same room you were in will I see a note on thE wall saying: 10-k WAS HERE? :D
If I get the same room you were in will I see a note on thE wall saying: 10-k WAS HERE? :D
Ha! No, when I leave you can't tell I was there. :)
McKee is great. Bob actually picked me up at the trailhead in the rain and drove me into town, then out to dinner at Opals. Then we had breakfast and lunch again at Opals....
There's another guy in town named Paul Rose (believe he is the building inspector) who helps out ST hikers. I talked with by phone several times but didn't get to meet him because he had to go to a funeral or something.
Miami Joe
11-02-2014, 07:52
22 inches on Mount LeConte
jjozgrunt
11-02-2014, 08:23
One extreme to the other. Went for a last day walk today in my full kit, bloody hell I won't do that again. Hit 35C or 95F, just before the biggest climb. I was a soaking wet, dehydrated rag by the time I got to the top and my car.
wornoutboots
11-02-2014, 10:01
People around the Smokies are getting stupid. I have heard 'rumors' of up to 20 inches of snow in the high country. I have to see it to believe it. Temps have been in the 60s and 70s all week here. any snow that might come is likely to melt as fast as it hits the ground. May stick to the trees and shelter roofs, but not on the warm ground.
I'm sorry, what were you saying?? Just messing with ya :) Interesting how these mountains we love so much, make their own weather & command our respect..
Got a ride back to the trail too from the nice folks at Town and Country Motel. That's Mayor Bill Thompkins.
How long do you suppose this snow sticks around?
hikernutcasey
11-03-2014, 15:16
How long do you suppose this snow sticks around?Considering its in the 40's today and forecasted to be in the 50's tomorrow even in the highlands, my guess is not long at all :)
By the way here is a pic of what I encountered yesterday28835
Just got back from hiking Unaka Mt. over Beauty Spot to Indian Grave Gap. Now is anywhere from 9" to 3" with drifts up to my knees in places.
It's not going to last very long though - the sun is beating down and it's well above freezing.
I just started backpacking in September of this year. Exclusively on weekends. Almost logged 300 miles so far. This weekend was the first time experiencing cold. I was on the foothills trail. Luckily, trail was fairly easy and 18 miles between 10:30 and just before 6 was easily accomplished. A cool thing about it being that cold, the condensation on my single wall SMD Scout just froze. Didn't have to wake up every hr to wipe it down.
It was fairly windy, I wouldn't be shocked if with the windchill I experienced 28-29 degrees. It was cold.
Also, I heard so much about layering up. I slept with a standard gym compression shirt and nothing else on my upper body (i down own a base layer). My compression shirt functions as one I guess. I didn't even need to use my second hiking shirt, my thin polyester long sleeve "midlayer" shirt, my 20$ down cosco vest jacket, or my $10 wally world windbreaker. As for lower body, I just had my usual gym shorts and 2 pairs of hiking socks for my feet. At some point around 3-4 am, it did get cold enough for me to put on my fleece pants, which I then became slightly to warm for but decided to keep on. The compression shirt was all I needed for my upper body.
I slept in a marmot tressles 30 degree bag and on top of a ridgerest. No airpad.
I am a side sleeper. Last 2 hikes, I woke up with sore hips. Or I would be awake by "pain" in my hips. I think I may have to bite the bullet and buy an airpad or add blue foam under my ridgerest.
Anyways, the cold wasn't as bad as I thought it would be. Happy I went hiking.
HooKooDooKu
11-03-2014, 18:28
I don't know what the winds were like in the foothills, but based on other weather predictions I saw, you should have had winds around 10-15mph.
That pretty much means that if condensation was freezing on your tent, the wind chill should have been in the teens.
Of course if you're inside a tent with no wind blowing on you, wind chill is meaningless (at least until you step out of the tent).
"At some point around 3-4 am, it did get cold enough for me to put on my fleece pants, which I then became slightly to warm for but decided to keep on."
Those Sponge Bob Square Pants fleece bottoms are the bomb.
I did my hike North to Pearisburg this weekend. The wind was howling, the snow was wet but it went well. About 6" up on Doc's Knob, and the rhododendrons were hanging low.