Appalachian Trail hikers Social Network Analysis (SNA) research - thoughts?

[RobbieRookie]

Hi all!
You can call me Rookie. I'm a statistics major at a small Midwestern college, and planning to section-hike the AT over the next couple of summers or thru-hike it all right after I graduate. To start with, I am hoping to apply for an independent research fellowship to complete a research project on the Appalachian Trail. Here's the rough proposal:

I'm hoping to analyze social networks of northbound thru-hikers roughly midway through their hikes. At this point in the hike, my hope would be that I could gather data on networks of trust and communication among thru-hikers. My idea was to jump on the trail somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic region around June 15th, and section-hike up to around the New Jersey/New York border - so, hopefully a month to 6 weeks on the trail (does that sound realistic?). During that time, I would hope to interview hikers and gather basic demographic data (age, gender), hiking background information (thru or section hiker? years of experience?), and questions involving relationships with other hikers. I would then hopefully perform statistical social network analysis (SNA) on this data once I got off the trail.

So here's where I'm looking for advice. I have a couple of questions:
1.) I'm still developing research questions and methodology, and I'm very interested in making my results available to the thru- and section-hiker community. So, what would you like to know about your fellow hikers?
2.) What would be a good location to start if I wanted to start in a cluster of northbounders around June 15th? If you're a potential class of 2015 thru-hiker, where do you hope to be by then? I was thinking Harpers' Ferry, WV or a bit farther south - how does that sound?

Thanks,
Rookie

[rickb]

You can call me Rookie. I'm a statistics major at a small Midwestern college...


Of possible interest: http://www.nps.gov/appa/parkmgmt/upload/Main_Report-2.pdf

Not sure how you could tie this into a survey, but one potential impact on Trail usage will be the upcoming Movie with Nick Nolte and Robert Redford (based on he book written by Iowa native Bill Bryson) and a lesser extent the Reese Witherspoon's "Wild" opening up in a few weeks.

More broadly speaking, I am interested in how people first heard of the AT, what drew them to thru hike, and how their reality matched up with expectations.

[RobbieRookie]

Thank you very much! This report is very helpful, as I don't want to overlap with previous research more than is necessary and I'm pretty curious to see how my results compare, assuming this project gets approved. I'll be sure to consider the variables you mentioned for interviews, too!

[Slo-go'en]

The problem is, thru hikers are spread out all over the trail by June. There will be small groups of 4-6 hikers passing through everyday. So, by getting on the trail mid way and going NOBO, you will only encounter a small group of thru-hikers.

Therefore, want you want to do is go SOBO. That way you'll meet all the NOBO hikers and camp with a new group every night. I did a SOBO in May through North Carolina once and meet something like 700 people going the other way. If you started south at say Harpers Ferry mid June, you'd meet up with the all but the very fastest or very early starters since they will already be north of you.

Years ago, hikers keep track of each other via the shelter registers. That is still true today to some extent, but I understand texting is becoming a common way to stay in touch with hikers in one's extended "bubble" which is everyone in the general area.

[RobbieRookie]

Thank you! I actually hadn't thought of that at all before, but that makes a lot of sense! It also leads to a reasonable hiking goal (section-hike VA in 5-7 weeks?) and means I get a HUGE sample! I'll certainly consider it - it sounds like a good option!

[map man]

If you want to maximize the number of NOBOs you get to talk to, go SOBO, as Slo-go'en says. You mention starting mid-June and finishing in a month to six weeks. Go SOBO starting June 15 at Dalton MA and hike 350 miles south for five weeks (10 miles a day) to Port Clinton PA, finishing July 19 -- this itinerary will maximize the number of NOBOs you see. The middle of the pack is around the trail mid-point in southern PA on June 15 and has moved to around the MA/VT border by July 19. Since you will be getting your trail legs and will be taking extra time with your study along the way, I would not try to average more than 10 miles a day. I would try to always stay the night around shelters or in trail towns as that would maximize exposure to thru-hikers during a time of the day when they will have the time to give you. Here is a table showing "typical" NOBO completer progress, which is how I arrived at where the NOBO pack will be:

TABLE 3 -- Date Landmarks Were Reached

MEDIAN DAY ~~ MEAN DAY ~~~ LANDMARK
March 17............March 20...........Springer
March 25............March 28...........Georgia Border
April 1................April 5...............Fontana
April 28..............April 29..............Damascus
May 29..............May 28..............Waynesboro
June 9...............June 8...............Harpers Ferry
June 29.............June 27..............DWG
July 12..............July 10...............Kent
Aug. 5...............Aug. 2...............Glencliff
Aug. 15.............Aug. 12..............Gorham
Aug. 26.............Aug. 22..............Stratton
Sept. 9..............Sept. 4..............Katahdin!

[RobbieRookie]

Thanks so much! That table is really helpful, and I feel like the advice I'm getting here is making the design of this whole project get better every time, for all sorts of reasons. Thanks again!

[RED-DOG]

If you want to meet thru-hikers all you really have to do is set up at a road crossing with a sign declaring some kind of trail magic, you'll have no problem what so ever meeting thru-hikers, I would do it at the Dalgren Backpackers campsite in Maryland, or some place in Maryland during Mid-June to early July or just simply wait around the ATC Headquarters in HF just about every thru-hiker that makes it that far goes in their and gets their picture taking for that years album. You really should have no problem getting what ever you want accomplished.

[RobbieRookie]

Thanks very much, all! I'll take all of this information and (since section-hiking is a major goal of mine regardless) I will likely end of doing some hybrid of these suggestions if my plans go through. One question I have, a very reasonable point that my advisor brought up, concerns the fact that hikers might be reluctant to give the trail names of other hikers they know, because of the possible safety concerns of sharing trail names with a total stranger (even a total stranger conducting research!). I wouldn't be asking for identifying information beyond trail names at all. Do you think I could still get a fair amount of data, so long as all I ask for about other hikers is trail names?

[rickb]

Are you familiar with www.trailjournals.com?

If not, check out a few from the AT to see what kind of things hikers are sharing with the who world-- often in near real time.

ii would be more reticent with regard to sharing names, but I suspect I am in small minority on that score.

[RobbieRookie]

Hi all,
Thanks for your interest! I wanted to thank you for your advice, and say that I've decided, for now, to pursue different summer opportunities from this one. Should those not work out, though, and if I then decide to work on this again, I'll let you know!
~Rookie