View Full Version : Suspect Wanted for Violent Crime on the AT!
Treehugger
02-23-2015, 09:46
This is concerning. He's been on FB AT THru Hiker pages posting fairly recently. He's still out there as far as I know. Pass it on and look out for your selves. Until they catch this guy we have to be aware.
http://www.wfmz.com/news/news-regional-berks/police-seek-suspect-in-violent-kidnapping-of-man-at-gunpoint/31316036
Rocket Jones
02-23-2015, 10:27
According to the comments, he's a serial offender and uses similar stories - hiking or biking - often, before robbing the victim and then stealing their car to make his getaway.
Per his MO, he's probably already out-of-state and far from the AT, but caution is warrented nevertheless.
Thanks for posting this.
Ground Control
02-23-2015, 10:35
Don't befriend him on Facebook, and be wary of "hikers" carrying AK-47s.
Got it.
i just read the posting and i didn't get the part were he is on the AT or near it the crime took place away from the AT and he is no where near the AT so i don't understand how this has anything to do with AT related issues.
fiddlehead
02-23-2015, 11:01
The crime took place at an AT shelter.
And this was the 2nd time he's done it.
ALLEGHENY
02-23-2015, 11:07
i just read the posting and i didn't get the part were he is on the AT or near it the crime took place away from the AT and he is no where near the AT so i don't understand how this has anything to do with AT related issues.
"McGinty told the victim he was hiking the Appalachian Trail and staying at a trail shelter in the rear of the property."
Yards away from the AT. Eckville Shelter, Hawk Mountain Road..
Sounds like he isn't a hiker but a local who scouts the area looking for handouts under the guise of a hiker? What stinks is that people who do this makes everyone think that hikers are thugs and thieves. Ruins it for the good guys :(
OK i reread the posting.
i must have missed something the first time:datz
Offshore
02-23-2015, 11:37
Sounds like he isn't a hiker but a local who scouts the area looking for handouts under the guise of a hiker? What stinks is that people who do this makes everyone think that hikers are thugs and thieves. Ruins it for the good guys :(
I'd hardly call kidnapping, auto theft and forcible withdrawals from an ATM (or as the the report calls it "violent robbery and kidnapping"), looking for a handout.
If the shelters in the rear of the property than wouldn't that make the house the caretakers? That is if I'm thinking of the right shelter.
Kind of curious what will become of it, it had a shower if I remember correctly, would be a shame to see it shutdown.
Rain Man
02-23-2015, 12:09
The AK-47, which belonged to the homeowner, has not been recovered, police said.
Sigh.
Rain Man
.
JBandStacy2014
02-23-2015, 12:55
Lets not blame the AK.
Just did an overnight around the Pinnacle/Hamburg Reservoir area. Happy to say that we did not run into him.
Wolf - 23000
02-23-2015, 19:59
Sounds like he isn't a hiker but a local who scouts the area looking for handouts under the guise of a hiker? What stinks is that people who do this makes everyone think that hikers are thugs and thieves. Ruins it for the good guys :(
Demeter and others,
From what it sounds like to me, this guy has some basic knowledge of the trail and the hiking community. If his guy is carry a weapon, threaten people with a weapon and has been on the AT at least twice, then anyone hiking the AT should be on the look for this nut. Over the years there has been several criminals that were hiding out on the trail - some that were very dangerous.
Wolf
It's a guy's private residence, he has a small shed in the back for hikers, and a shower
Lone Wolf
02-23-2015, 20:35
It's a guy's private residence, he has a small shed in the back for hikers, and a shower
not a private residence
http://www.bmecc.org/at.html
Hill Ape
02-23-2015, 20:39
https://www.facebook.com/ravynn1
https://www.facebook.com/glenn.mcginty.507
both profiles are his, and include numerous pictures of the trail taken over the past couple years, some recently... this guy may be out there, stay alert
last posted on the second profile two days ago, after the crime and story broke
jimmyjam
02-23-2015, 21:24
Click on his FB contact info it's a link to some pagan-wiccan web site.
UnfamousK
02-25-2015, 12:16
this was right by my house....havent heard anything since think this guy is long gone.....be safe out there people!
I just was browsing the fellows 'likes', and it's a little troubling. He's obviously a loose canon. He has both the Spurs and the Rockets as 'likes', which would be like a Yankees or Orioles fan going around praising the Redsox. It's just crazy. They're in the same conference man!
His music taste seem a little eccentric also...
Rocket Jones
02-25-2015, 13:42
You mean, he likes country *and* western? ;)
Not sure what's more troubling, the guys violent behavior or the fact that people are now making character judgements on him based off his sports team affiliation and musical tastes.
Ah, sensationalism.
northernfrostbite
02-25-2015, 14:21
Don't make me pack my nunchucks.
Wolf - 23000
02-25-2015, 14:47
Not sure what's more troubling, the guys violent behavior or the fact that people are now making character judgements on him based off his sports team affiliation and musical tastes.
Ah, sensationalism.
Well Put!!! This is jerk needs to be locked up. He threaten peoples lives and gave a huge black eye to the 1,000s of honest hikers who hike the trail every year.
Wolf
Back on topic, lessons should be learned from the Randall Lee Smith (http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/08/14/7-things-you-didnt-know-about-the-appalachian-trail/) incidents.
Rocket Jones
02-25-2015, 20:13
Poedog and Wolf, in the immortal words of John Winger: "Lighten up, Francis."
Poedog and Wolf, in the immortal words of John Winger: "Lighten up, Francis."
Let me be the first to note it was Sgt. Hulka.
Rocket Jones
02-25-2015, 20:22
Nah, "Lighten up, Sgt. Hulka" can't be right. ;)
Not sure what's more troubling, the guys violent behavior or the fact that people are now making character judgements on him based off his sports team affiliation and musical tastes.
The man's violent behavior is much more troubling.
To a lesser degree it is troubling that you will never see a post, advisory or notation of this on the ATC website.
The National Park Service Appalachian Trail Chief Ranger is monitoring the situation and is in communication with the state police, the victim, and ATC. We have been asked by the A.T. Chief Ranger to wait for the release of further information from the Pa State Police, the lead investigators. If we get word the the perpetrator is near the A.T. and believed to be a threat to hikers we will certainly post that information.
In-depth safety information specifically for long-distance hikers can be found on our website at www.appalachiantrail.org/hiking/thru-section-hiking/safety-tips (http://www.appalachiantrail.org/hiking/thru-section-hiking/safety-tips).
Laurie Potteiger
ATC
jimmyjam
02-25-2015, 21:44
The National Park Service Appalachian Trail Chief Ranger is monitoring the situation and is in communication with the state police, the victim, and ATC. We have been asked by the A.T. Chief Ranger to wait for the release of further information from the Pa State Police, the lead investigators. If we get word the the perpetrator is near the A.T. and believed to be a threat to hikers we will certainly post that information.
In-depth safety information specifically for long-distance hikers can be found on our website at www.appalachiantrail.org/hiking/thru-section-hiking/safety-tips (http://www.appalachiantrail.org/hiking/thru-section-hiking/safety-tips).
Laurie Potteiger
ATC
Thank you and the ATC for their diligence.
Poedog and Wolf, in the immortal words of John Winger: "Lighten up, Francis."
Um, huh?
The man's violent behavior is much more troubling.
Um, yes. Yes it is.
*inserts tongue into cheek*
In-depth safety information specifically for long-distance hikers can be found on our website at www.appalachiantrail.org/hiking/thru-section-hiking/safety-tips (http://www.appalachiantrail.org/hiking/thru-section-hiking/safety-tips).
This is good information and the ATC's warnings are well founded. It should be noted that at least 5 thru hikers (yes, thru hikers) have been murdered on the AT proper.
I do wish the individual at the ATC who elected to remove the names of the murdered thru hikers and general circumstances surrounding those crimes from the ATC web site (along with the names other murder victims who were out for shorter hikes) had not done so.
Those tragic events should not be forgotten or turned into abstractions, but rather remembered and learned from.
As for the events posted in this thread, the ATC would do well to post relevant links with the information now at hand.
Lone Wolf
02-25-2015, 22:01
This is good information and the ATC's warnings are well founded. It should be noted that at least 5 thru hikers (yes, thru hikers) have been murdered on the AT proper.
I do wish the individual at the ATC who elected to remove the names of the murdered thru hikers and general circumstances surrounding those crimes from the ATC web site (along with the names other murder victims who were out for shorter hikes) had not done so.
Those tragic events should not be forgotten or turned into abstractions, but rather remembered and learned from.
As for the events posted in this thread, the ATC would do well to post relevant links with the information now at hand.
i know a lot about the murders in 90 just south of Duncannon. the ATC at that time was not forthcoming with info. 3 of my friends hunted down and had the murderer apprehended
i know a lot about the murders in 90 just south of Duncannon. the ATC at that time was not forthcoming with info. 3 of my friends hunted down and had the murderer apprehended
Spending the night in the Doyle and then walking south through that area in the rain made for one of creepier days along the trail.
I'd hardly call kidnapping, auto theft and forcible withdrawals from an ATM (or as the the report calls it "violent robbery and kidnapping"), looking for a handout.
Demeter and others,
From what it sounds like to me, this guy has some basic knowledge of the trail and the hiking community. If his guy is carry a weapon, threaten people with a weapon and has been on the AT at least twice, then anyone hiking the AT should be on the look for this nut. Over the years there has been several criminals that were hiding out on the trail - some that were very dangerous.
Wolf
point well taken. This guy is violent and even worse - desperate, IMHO. Resorting to armed robbery and kidnapping when apparently homeless means he has no boundaries. I only meant that a trail angel who gets attacked by someone who is "on the AT" will alarm other community members and distribute to the media that hikers will attack others randomly and give thru-hikers a bad name.
One of the great features of an online community like this is to spread the word and do some self-policing to get him off the trail (as opposed to "off the streets :) " so other hikers don't feel the backlash...
Wolf - 23000
02-25-2015, 23:40
Demeter,
Well put! Something like this will hurt the hiking community as a whole. As you pointed out, with the extra online community spreading the word hopefully it will scare him away from the trail. It just does not help when people make jokes about a crime line this.
The hard part about this is the guy has some knowledge of the trail making him less likely to stick out. In 1990 case that LW is speaking of, the murder suck out like a sore thumb as not a thru-hiker to everyone who met him on the trail. I know many of us are very trusting when we meet other thru-hikers, well sadly there are some bad apples. Just something to keep in mind the next time someone ask you "what you are carrying?" or "Where are you camping?"
Wolf
Lone Wolf
02-26-2015, 16:31
Caught
http://www.wfmz.com/news/news-regional-berks/Suspect-in-violent-kidnapping-robbery-apprehended-in-Wyoming/31495852
Caught at a Walmart... I dunno why but that made me chuckle. Just seems appropriate for some reason.
jimmyjam
02-26-2015, 17:35
That's very good news. let's hope they keep him locked up for a long time.
Wolf - 23000
02-26-2015, 17:56
Outstanding News LW!!! Thank you for staying on top of this!
Wolf
Great news, maybe I can be on the jury! I'm a local.
scrabbler
02-26-2015, 22:32
Long term history of history of this behavior.
http://mugshots.com/US-Counties/Florida/Unsorted-FL/Marshall-G-Mcginty.2068475.html
yerbyray
02-27-2015, 11:31
Dang I want to know how he went 1800 miles with sixty bucks!! I wish my truck got that kind of mileage.
Kevin108
02-27-2015, 21:21
Such nonsense is why I always carry.
Traveler
03-01-2015, 08:58
The crime took place at an AT shelter.
And this was the 2nd time he's done it.
According to the article, the crime took place in the residence the victim was house sitting, not the shelter. The assailant claimed to be hiking the AT, but the article did not say if police found any evidence of his gear or his being in the shelter nearby.
Given this guys history, it would appear he is not on the trail but may spin a story that includes this fiction.
Lone Wolf
03-01-2015, 10:34
the house is 30 feet from the shelter
the house is 30 feet from the shelter
Isn't the resident of the house also the caretaker of the shelter? That's the feeling I got when he came out and yelled at a bunch of people for being loud.
I wouldn't even really say the house is separate from the shelter considering you charge electronics and get your water from the side of it.
That said, and knowing the fellow who stays there has a thing for AK's, I'm being extra quiet next time I'm there.
mrcoffeect
03-01-2015, 13:32
the house is 30 feet from the shelter
At the most. I think its less than 20 ft. The shower is farther away than the house.
Dang I want to know how he went 1800 miles with sixty bucks!! I wish my truck got that kind of mileage.
I'm wondering who else he accosted in the 9 days he was on the lam...:-(
AndyJ_54
03-01-2015, 21:49
AK 47 is just in case he encounters a hungry bear...
Traveler
03-02-2015, 07:09
Such nonsense is why I always carry.
I cannot imagine being that frighted in life to haul that kind of weight around.
I cannot imagine being that frighted in life to haul that kind of weight around.
I think it is great for you to share your opinion on the wisdom of carrying a firearm on the Trail, and I respect that the majority of hikers would agree with you. That said, I would strongly disagree that those who do are "frightened in life".
Facts can be troubling, but five thru hikers (yes, thru hikers) have been murdered on the AT proper.
Molly LaRue, 25, from Shaker Heights, Ohio
Geoffrey Hood, 26, from Signal Mountain, Tennessee
Susan Ramsey, 27 from Ellsworth Maine
Robert Mountford, 27, from Ellsworth, Maine
Janice Balza, 22, from Madison, Wisconsin
I didn't include Joel Polsom, 26, of Hartsville, South Carolina because I wasn't 100% sure he was a thru hiker or not. Some reports say he was and others are less clear on that point.
I'm pretty sure Joel Polsom was a thru hiker. I was having lunch at Elkwallow last year chatting for a good while with a thru hiker from that year who had actually been hiking with em. I don't want to swear he said they were thru hikers, but I at least left with the impression they were. He even had a photo with a bunch of people who had been hiking that year and Joel and his girl were in it.
I really wish I wrote his name down, I enjoyed the conversation. I remember he had just been to a reunion of some sort, and after he hiked the trail he went on to become some sort of law enforcement officer. (Deputy Sheriff maybe?)
What about Scott Lilly from IN in 2011?
Offshore
03-02-2015, 10:31
I think it is great for you to share your opinion on the wisdom of carrying a firearm on the Trail, and I respect that the majority of hikers would agree with you. That said, I would strongly disagree that those who do are "frightened in life".
Facts can be troubling, but five thru hikers (yes, thru hikers) have been murdered on the AT proper.
Molly LaRue, 25, from Shaker Heights, Ohio
Geoffrey Hood, 26, from Signal Mountain, Tennessee
Susan Ramsey, 27 from Ellsworth Maine
Robert Mountford, 27, from Ellsworth, Maine
Janice Balza, 22, from Madison, Wisconsin
I didn't include Joel Polsom, 26, of Hartsville, South Carolina because I wasn't 100% sure he was a thru hiker or not. Some reports say he was and others are less clear on that point.
Facts would be more useful in evaluating risk (and perhaps less troubling) with some context. How many thru hikers were not murdered on the trail in the same period as the six listed in your post?
full conditions
03-02-2015, 10:52
I think it is great for you to share your opinion on the wisdom of carrying a firearm on the Trail, and I respect that the majority of hikers would agree with you. That said, I would strongly disagree that those who do are "frightened in life".
Facts can be troubling, but five thru hikers (yes, thru hikers) have been murdered on the AT proper.
Molly LaRue, 25, from Shaker Heights, Ohio
Geoffrey Hood, 26, from Signal Mountain, Tennessee
Susan Ramsey, 27 from Ellsworth Maine
Robert Mountford, 27, from Ellsworth, Maine
Janice Balza, 22, from Madison, Wisconsin
I didn't include Joel Polsom, 26, of Hartsville, South Carolina because I wasn't 100% sure he was a thru hiker or not. Some reports say he was and others are less clear on that point.
Six very tragic events. The ATC estimates that about 12,000 folks have hike the entire trail. That makes a murder rate of about 0.5% - compared with the 4.8% rate for the entire country. There have been other murders on the trail that didn't involve thru hikers but then our statistics need to include total number of section and day hikers which probably (just my guess) hovers around the same as the murder rate for thru hikers. If I lived in a country where the murder rate was 0.5%, I'd feel pretty safe. I think ultimately it depends on the person - some folks never feel safe and statistically rare incidents like this only tend to reinforce that bias.
Dochartaigh
03-02-2015, 11:02
Six very tragic events. The ATC estimates that about 12,000 folks have hike the entire trail. That makes a murder rate of about 0.5% - compared with the 4.8% rate for the entire country.
To play devil's advocate: What would the statistics of people murdered only in very remote areas of the country be? (i.e. remove the statistics from all urban areas from that 4.8% murder rate). Compare that rate with the murders which happened to thru hikers (which to be honest would probably be impossible to calculate), but I'll bet you the number could very well be higher for thru hikers than people living in very remote parts of the country... More dangerous or not, who really knows, just playing some statistical mind games here...
full conditions
03-02-2015, 11:53
To play devil's advocate: What would the statistics of people murdered only in very remote areas of the country be? (i.e. remove the statistics from all urban areas from that 4.8% murder rate). Compare that rate with the murders which happened to thru hikers (which to be honest would probably be impossible to calculate), but I'll bet you the number could very well be higher for thru hikers than people living in very remote parts of the country... More dangerous or not, who really knows, just playing some statistical mind games here...
My guess is that its probably much lower for thru hikers. Most murders are committed by people who knew their victim (friends, family members, etc.) and this is especially true in rural areas and there are simply fewer opportunities for that to happen on the AT. Also, I did not include in that 0.05 percent statistic the numbers of people who hiked most of the trail and dropped out for whatever reason (being murdered not one of them) - then that percent gets way smaller. People fear violent crime regardless of probability statistics - its a visceral reaction that has little to do with reason or probability. Which, I should point out that I dont mean to sound judge-y here - I have plenty of my own unreasonable fears - just not this one
Facts would be more useful in evaluating risk (and perhaps less troubling) with some context. How many thru hikers were not murdered on the trail in the same period as the six listed in your post?
Good question/point.
Since 1974 approximately 50,000 people have attempted a thru hike and about 12,000 of them went on to hike the entire Trail and register as "2000 Milers".
To me it is sobering to think that for every 2000 thru hikers who register as a 2000 miler, one thru hiker did not have that opportunity because he/she was killed by a complete stranger along the way.
Others take comfort with the idea that number of victims is so small, given the world we live in.
Offshore
03-02-2015, 14:16
Good question/point.
Since 1974 approximately 50,000 people have attempted a thru hike and about 12,000 of them went on to hike the entire Trail and register as "2000 Milers".
To me it is sobering to think that for every 2000 thru hikers who register as a 2000 miler, one thru hiker did not have that opportunity because he/she was killed by a complete stranger along the way.
Others take comfort with the idea that number of victims is so small, given the world we live in.
Not taking comfort in the loss of even a single life, but since the number will never be zero, one needs a sense of perspective. Probably the biggest risks of injury or death a thru-hiker may face are the ride to/from the trail or the hitched ride in the back of a pickup. Falls in the bathroom are another big cause of injury/death, (so look at that privy and embrace hiker stink with a new sense of appreciation, people). Here in NJ, I view my biggest trail risks as driving to the trailhead and back, ticks carrying Lyme, and our growing bear population. (Don't get me started on the prohibition on bear spray here in NJ).
Not taking comfort in the loss of even a single life, but since the number will never be zero, one needs a sense of perspective. Probably the biggest risks of injury or death a thru-hiker may face are the ride to/from the trail or the hitched ride in the back of a pickup. Falls in the bathroom are another big cause of injury/death, (so look at that privy and embrace hiker stink with a new sense of appreciation, people). Here in NJ, I view my biggest trail risks as driving to the trailhead and back, ticks carrying Lyme, and our growing bear population. (Don't get me started on the prohibition on bear spray here in NJ).
True, but I cannot help but wonder how different the discussion would be if:
6 Thru hikers were killed by bears on the AT
or
6 Thru hikers drowned crossing rivers in the HMW
or
6 Thru hikers were killed by lightening on the AT
etc.
My guess is that if 6 they hikers were killed in any of the above circumstances (and to be clear not a singe one has been) no one would look to put the tragedy into perspective. Rather we would talk about the specific circumstances, and then work hard to learn from them.
full conditions
03-02-2015, 14:47
Good question/point.
Since 1974 approximately 50,000 people have attempted a thru hike and about 12,000 of them went on to hike the entire Trail and register as "2000 Milers".
To me it is sobering to think that for every 2000 thru hikers who register as a 2000 miler, one thru hiker did not have that opportunity because he/she was killed by a complete stranger along the way.
Others take comfort with the idea that number of victims is so small, given the world we live in.
To be fair, it's really 6 out of 50 000. I don't find that fact comforting but I do see it as evidence that I have very little reason to worry about my safety especially compared to just about anywhere else.
Offshore
03-02-2015, 15:03
True, but I cannot help but wonder how different the discussion would be if:
6 Thru hikers were killed by bears on the AT
or
6 Thru hikers drowned crossing rivers in the HMW
or
6 Thru hikers were killed by lightening on the AT
etc.
My guess is that if 6 they hikers were killed in any of the above circumstances (and to be clear not a singe one has been) no one would look to put the tragedy into perspective. Rather we would talk about the specific circumstances, and then work hard to learn from them.
Probably very true. The difference being bad luck/judgement vs. malice.
4eyedbuzzard
03-02-2015, 15:42
To be fair, it's really 6 out of 50 000. I don't find that fact comforting but I do see it as evidence that I have very little reason to worry about my safety especially compared to just about anywhere else.Well, the US homicide rate is 4.7 per 100,000, so 6 per 50,000 would tend to imply that the trail is twice as dangerous as the rest of the US on average. But that would be misleading in many ways. We'd really have to get into all the other data like how many "hiker nights" are spent on the trail by all overnight hikers each year (likely millions per year) as murderers aren't going to likely be able differentiate between thru-hikers and weekend warriors. There have been 11 or 12 murders associated with hikers on or in close proximity to the AT (side trails connecting with the AT) since roughly 1970. Two were double homicide incidents, and if memory serves, all but one in one way or another involved women under age 30. I believe 10 or 11 of the twelve victims were women, and the man that was killed was with a woman. So the homicide rate itself is likely very low, well under 1 per million. The rate for young women travelling alone would be greater as they are more likely to be a victim and they represent a much lower percentage of overnight hikers. But I would still guesstimate that even that rate is way below the national homicide rate. And a lot of these incidents happened at/near shelters and where the trail was easily accessed by roads. The most dangerous places on the AT are where it comes closest to civilization and non-hikers, road crossings and shelters.
full conditions
03-02-2015, 15:56
True, but I cannot help but wonder how different the discussion would be if:
6 Thru hikers were killed by bears on the AT
or
6 Thru hikers drowned crossing rivers in the HMW
or
6 Thru hikers were killed by lightening on the AT
etc.
My guess is that if 6 they hikers were killed in any of the above circumstances (and to be clear not a singe one has been) no one would look to put the tragedy into perspective. Rather we would talk about the specific circumstances, and then work hard to learn from them.
It's funny (not ha ha funny) you should mention these other forms of premature deaths - thru hikers have died from vehicle accidents (I know of at least two prospective thrus that died that way); drowning (Kennebec River and Clarendon Gorge drownings come to mind - though they may not have been actual thru hikers); lightning - two hikers were killed at the Mount Collins shelter about 20 minutes after I left one afternoon in 1982 (I think); I am unaware of any bear related thru hiker deaths from bear attacks. As far as I'm aware, all of these deaths caused a lot of concern and analysis in the hiker community. In any case, hiker deaths seem somehow more tragic and horrible than deaths due to heart disease, auto accidents, or falling in the bath tub. The phenomenon is called selection bias and it colors how we see the world and react to events - you can see it in the media - we obsess over a climber death on Mount Everest but the thousands that die every day of dysentery pass without notice. I have a horror of dying in a cave. Alone, like that guy in Mammoth Cave in the 20's. If the six murders of thru hikers cause you a bit of wariness or some kind of precaution taking, I understand. I don't share your concern because the odds are so incredibly low, but I do understand.
upstream
03-02-2015, 16:36
Well, the US homicide rate is 4.7 per 100,000, so 6 per 50,000 would tend to imply that the trail is twice as dangerous as the rest of the US on average. But that would be misleading in many ways.
Well, the homicide rate for the us is 4.7 per 100,000 PER YEAR, so, if we put the AT trail homicides in perspective for all hikers, 12 per million (the ATC estimates the trail gets 2-3 million visitors per year) per 44 years (since the first murder) is .0136 per 100,000 per year, so, you are 344 times more likely to be murdered off the trail than on the trail.
Or, if you only consider the 50,000 thru hiker starts, then that is 6/50,000/44 or .28 per 100,000 per year so, you are 17 times more likely to be murdered if you are not thru-hiking.
64% of all statistics are made up on the spot.:eek:
4eyedbuzzard
03-02-2015, 16:42
Well, the homicide rate for the us is 4.7 per 100,000 PER YEAR, so, if we put the AT trail homicides in perspective for all hikers, 12 per million (the ATC estimates the trail gets 2-3 million visitors per year) per 44 years (since the first murder) is .0136 per 100,000 per year, so, you are 344 times more likely to be murdered off the trail than on the trail.
Or, if you only consider the 50,000 thru hiker starts, then that is 6/50,000/44 or .28 per 100,000 per year so, you are 17 times more likely to be murdered if you are not thru-hiking.
64% of all statistics are made up on the spot.:eek:Yeah, it would take A LOT of research, hiker data, and careful analysis to truly put it all in perspective. Safe to say, the trail itself is less dangerous than most other places or activities.
yerbyray
03-02-2015, 16:50
Facts would be more useful in evaluating risk (and perhaps less troubling) with some context. How many thru hikers were not murdered on the trail in the same period as the six listed in your post?
How many sexual assaults? How many other types of assaults? You can't walk through the woods naively thinking that everybody is becoming one with nature; some of the hippies are not so hippyish but harmful.
This topic rears up on many threads on here and people on both sides get so offended. The truth is violent crime is down but we hear about it more so we think it is bad. That being said....you do have to prepare for bad things to happen. We all carry different things in our first aid kit to prepare so why can't people carry other response items that they want to? Just stay within the confines of the law. If you have ever passed me on a trail...you probably passed a firearm.
The most dangerous thing on the AT are the two-legged mouth breathers who have no real purpose in society. The second is the drunks fighting over women. Third are those fire breathing axe wielding shelter mice.
I'm a grown man and I have been in the Linville Gorge and other trails where I have encountered many groups of people I am concerned with. They are there to have their kind of fun (usually involves ingesting chemicals and then burning something unique like a loveseat on the fire ring) but things could get out of hand.
March of last year a fellow who lived on land adjacent to Shortoff Mountain killed two folks, stole their ride and went on a terror spree that ended in the death of a federal ranger and a long shoot out. He had been on foot around the Table Rock Road prior to the law enforcement officer being killed.
Lone Wolf
03-02-2015, 16:57
http://www.southeasternoutdoors.com/outdoors/shooting/crime/appalachian-trail-murders.html
jimmyjam
03-02-2015, 19:59
http://www.southeasternoutdoors.com/outdoors/shooting/crime/appalachian-trail-murders.html
The list is missing the murder of Scott Lilly in 2011 in Amherst County.
Lone Wolf
03-02-2015, 20:07
...and Meridith near blood mtn.
Wolf - 23000
03-02-2015, 20:28
The list is missing the murder of Scott Lilly in 2011 in Amherst County.
jimmyjam,
Thank you for including Scott Lilly. I never met the man but he shouldn't be forgotten.
V/R
Wolf
jimmyjam,
Thank you for including Scott Lilly. I never met the man but he shouldn't be forgotten.
V/R
Wolf
Very correct.
We should also not forget how the authorities would not confirm that this death was homicide until 6 months to the day after his partially burried body was found -- as the coronor was required to do by law.
While many assumed that was the case, up until that time authorities would only say that his death was suspicious, and advise hikers in the area to take the usual precautions all the while suggesting that hikers had no special reason to be concerned for their own safety. Really.
Scott Lilly's murder is similar to all the others mentioned in this thread insofar as he was killed outside of the contemporary NOBO migration. It is different in that he was the only male killed who was not in the company of a female hiking parter, the only hiker to be murdered by asphyxiation, and the only AT hiker we know was killed whose murder was never caught.
Wolf - 23000
03-02-2015, 22:54
rickb,
Julianne Williams and Lollie Winans, two women who were murder in 1996, the killer was also never caught yet.
Also Geraldine Largay (Inchworm) who disappeared in 2013. Her body was never found even after a number of unsuccessfully searches. I really hopes her the best but her disappearing is very suspicious.
Regardless of if it is against a male or female, anyone who commits a violent crime needs to be brought to justice.
One of the problems is the police simple are not knowledgeable about the trail. It is not something that happens very often. When the police are called to these crimes, they are not uses to hikers hiking 20 miles a day, the equipment that they used, or life on the trail. Over the last couple of years ATC has stepped up to help get some of these creeps off the trail. There are still at least three murders that the killer(s) is still out there. Hopefully one day soon justice will be served for all.
V/R
Wolf
Wolf,
The reason I focused on just Thru Hikers is both because it is a group that I identify with very closely, and also because it is well defined.
When (God forbid) the next thru hiker is killed, the oracles of the Trail will no doubt be quick to bring out the talking points of how the trail is safer than Mayberry RFD because millions visit it without incident. Well, millions of thru hikers do not hike the Trail!
The other victims you mention, along with Rebecca Wright and Louise Chaput, and those we may have missed, matter every bit as much as the 5 or 6 thru hikers I listed, of course. I didn't mean to suggest otherwise. I am glad you and others in thread mentioned them.
Facts can be troubling, but five thru hikers (yes, thru hikers) have been murdered on the AT proper.
Molly LaRue, 25, from Shaker Heights, Ohio
Geoffrey Hood, 26, from Signal Mountain, Tennessee
Susan Ramsey, 27 from Ellsworth Maine
Robert Mountford, 27, from Ellsworth, Maine
Janice Balza, 22, from Madison, Wisconsin
I didn't include Joel Polsom, 26, of Hartsville, South Carolina because I wasn't 100% sure he was a thru hiker or not.
How many of these are unsolved???
Another poster mentioned Scott A. Lilly (2011 section hiker). We spent an afternoon and evening with "Scottie" (aka Stonewall). This is still unsolved... please, if you have any information - chime in!
The unsolved cases are the "creepy ones" because that means the killer is still out there.
Yet, that will not stop me, or many others, from continuing to hike!
full conditions
03-03-2015, 08:05
Wolf,
The reason I focused on just Thru Hikers is both because it is a group that I identify with very closely, and also because it is well defined.
When (God forbid) the next thru hiker is killed, the oracles of the Trail will no doubt be quick to bring out the talking points of how the trail is safer than Mayberry RFD because millions visit it without incident. Well, millions of thru hikers do not hike the Trail!
The other victims you mention, along with Rebecca Wright and Louise Chaput, and those we may have missed, matter every bit as much as the 5 or 6 thru hikers I listed, of course. I didn't mean to suggest otherwise. I am glad you and others in thread mentioned them.
<sigh> Just when I thought it was possible to have a rational discussion about the relative safety/ danger of hiking the trail someone has to start tossing around the pejoratives. Fine. But here's the thing rick. Thru hikers are also a group I identify with closely - mine was in '76 but I moved to the Smokies to be close to the trail and stay involved with its welfare and that of its travelers. Your "identity" isn't special - lots of people care about the trail and welfare of thru hikers. My point and that of a few others is that the trail is not an especially dangerous place - heck, I even did the math for you (6 out of 50, 000 prospective thru hikers or roughly 0.12%). Whenever I head out the door for a multi-day hike, my wife is convinced that I'll be murdered in my sleep by some psychopath and explaining to her that I'd be more likely to win the Pick Four its of zero consolation to her. She's convinced that the trail is full of murderers and that's that. If you want to debate the statistics fine, I'm all ears. If you want to talk about ways to increase the level of safety for long distance hikers, I'd love to hear your ideas - you seem like a smart and experienced guy and I love to learn. But what I'm less interested in rick is engaging in ad hominem attacks - they rarely forward a conversation.
Traveler
03-03-2015, 10:26
Death is not a stranger to life and that includes the AT unfortunately. Between 2010 and 2013 there have been some 11 deaths along the AT from falls, drowning, exposure, and failing health conditions. This three year period far and away exceeds the number of people who have been killed via violence at the hands of other people. Just on this statistic alone, one should be far more concerned about their overall state of health, where they are walking, clothing/gear they are (or are not carrying), or where they choose to ford streams/rivers or go for a swim.
The other issue with violence and crime in general on the AT, these events tend to be the proximity of transition points of road crossings/parking access and shelters that may be close to these points. These transition points are typically mapped and can be known of well in advance of approaching them and associated risks mitigated through awareness. This is not to say are no dangerous people on the trail, only that one can mitigate most of the dangerous things they can potentially run across.
Awareness is perhaps the best, if not most commonly employed defense in terms of ensuring ones own safety. Hanging a bear bag in bear country for example requires an awareness of that danger. Avoiding bee hives if one is allergic to them is another, being aware of how water moves so you can read it before a crossing takes you under a deadfall is another. Being aware there may be people who are not part of the trail community in shelters or on foot near these transition points is yet another in many calculations that are made daily.
Death is not a stranger to life and that includes the AT unfortunately. Between 2010 and 2013 there have been some 11 deaths along the AT from falls, drowning, exposure, and failing health conditions. This three year period far and away exceeds the number of people who have been killed via violence at the hands of other people. Just on this statistic alone, one should be far more concerned about their overall state of health, where they are walking, clothing/gear they are (or are not carrying), or where they choose to ford streams/rivers or go for a swim.
So I am guessing that you would not agree that the single leading cause of death among AT Thru hikers under the age of 30 is by the hand of a complete stranger?