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rickb
11-11-2005, 13:33
Another thread inspired me to check out the statistics on completion rates. I didn't find the detail that I was looking for, but did notice that completion rates for Nobos are way up over the past 5 years.

http://www.appalachiantrail.org/site/c.jkLXJ8MQKtH/b.851143/k.C36D/2000Milers_Facts_and_Statistics.htm

As I looked at the numbers, something struck me. Even though the completion rates are increasing big time, the percentage of Nobos who get to Harpers Ferry who then go on the finish the trail has remained virtually flat at about 56%.

The only thing that can explain this is that the North half of the trail remains as difficult as ever, but the southern half is getting easier.

I am thinking that since I am getting older and fatter, I might want to consider that when planning my next vacation.

weary
11-11-2005, 14:28
Another thread inspired me to check out the statistics on completion rates. I didn't find the detail that I was looking for, but did notice that completion rates for Nobos are way up over the past 5 years.

http://www.appalachiantrail.org/site/c.jkLXJ8MQKtH/b.851143/k.C36D/2000Milers_Facts_and_Statistics.htm

As I looked at the numbers, something struck me. Even though the completion rates are increasing big time, the percentage of Nobos who get to Harpers Ferry who then go on the finish the trail has remained virtually flat at about 56%.

The only thing that can explain this is that the North half of the trail remains as difficult as ever, but the southern half is getting easier.

I am thinking that since I am getting older and fatter, I might want to consider that when planning my next vacation.
I consider all these guesses about hikers and completion rates highly suspect. The number of northbounders comes from the staff at Walasi-Yi Center increased by an arbitrary 15 % to account for early dropouts. For southbounders the count is made 160 miles south of Katahdin by the Ferryman at the Kennebec, increased by an arbitrary 30% to account for assumed early dropouts.

But I suspect the greatest inaccuracy may be from an increased tendency by hikers to register as 2000-milers, even though many miles of the trail had been bypassed. I base this on the defensiveness of a lot of thru hikers whenever anyone suggests that the ATC guidelines be followed.

ATC, of course, makes this easy to do by its rather weak defense of the guidelines and its rather silly listing of a group of boy scouts in the 30s as the first thru hikers, even though the alleged effort was virtually a physical impossibility and was based on zero documentation -- other than the obviously garbled memory of an aging man.

Weary

Mouse
11-11-2005, 14:29
I think it is more that those less sure of themselves are more likely to go NOBO and their increase in completion rate is balanced by improvements in equipment.

I suspect the biggest difference between NOBO and SOBO is simply the difference in numbers and the timing dictated by when Katahdin thaws rather than physical difficulty per se. Higher NOBO numbers and a summer season mean more hostels and hiker services open and more mutual support. SOBOs are more on their own.

Papa Razzi
11-11-2005, 15:51
Here's another theory... Completion rates are up, but total numbers are down. According to the ATC, 2,900 nobos started in 2000 compared to 1,535 in 2004. The reported finishing numbers were 431 and 370, respectively. My theory is that the number of people who are serious about hiking the entire trail has remained roughly constant, and the increased completion rate is a symptom of less people starting who aren't serious or dedicated to their effort. Perhaps the 2000 starting numbers were inflated by the trail receiving a lot more publicity courtesy of the Bryson book (published in May of 1998) or other factors, and things are settling back into a state of normalcy. Well, at least whatever passes for normal on the trail.

Does anyone know of any pre-2000 statistics?

rickb
11-11-2005, 17:55
I consider all these guesses about hikers and completion rates highly suspect.

I agree, but the trend of some of the numbers are remarkably consitent:

Year 2000: The Ferryman logs 56% of the ATC Headquarter count.
Year 2001: The Ferryman logs 55% of the ATC Headquarter count.
Year 2002: The Ferryman logs 55% of the ATC Headquarter count.
Year 2003: The Ferryman logs 54% of the ATC Headquarter count.
Year 2004: The Ferryman logs 56% of the ATC Headquarter count.

I'm no statistician, but that seem like a trend that even Mendle would have let speak for itself.

Sly
11-11-2005, 17:58
But I suspect the greatest inaccuracy may be from an increased tendency by hikers to register as 2000-milers, even though many miles of the trail had been bypassed. I base this on the defensiveness of a lot of thru hikers whenever anyone suggests that the ATC guidelines be followed.


Even blue or yellow blazing thru-hikers can be 2000-milers if they did sections before or after their "thru-hike".

rickb
11-11-2005, 18:00
The "Katahdin" figures on the ATC site are not a count of how many register as 2000 Milers, but rather a count taken at Kennebec.

weary
11-11-2005, 18:07
Even blue or yellow blazing thru-hikers can be 2000-milers if they did sections before or after their "thru-hike".
Yup, that's true. But I saw very few hikers in 1993 that struck me as meeting the ATC "rules" for registering as a 2000-miler. Yet I saw a lot of familiar names, names of those who told me that this was their first AT experience, when the magazine printed its list of 1993 2000-milers.

Sly
11-11-2005, 18:16
The "Katahdin" figures on the ATC site are not a count of how many register as 2000 Milers, but rather a count taken at Kennebec.

You sure?

When I passed through figures were taken at Daicy Pond and I assumed they were shared with the ATC.

Whatever, I'm not that into stats and definitions. When I finished over two seasons, due to the circumstances, I called myself a thru-hiker. They checked off section hiker! ;)

Sly
11-11-2005, 18:20
Yup, that's true. But I saw very few hikers in 1993 that struck me as meeting the ATC "rules" for registering as a 2000-miler. Yet I saw a lot of familiar names, names of those who told me that this was their first AT experience, when the magazine printed its list of 1993 2000-milers.

They still could have completed sections after their hike!

Instead of passing the stupid applications out at Katahdin, when it's too late for many, they should do it at Springer or Neals Gap.

MileMonster
11-11-2005, 18:40
If completion rates are, in fact, up I would argue that the amount and availability of thru-hike specific information makes a difference. This site, sites like it, the myriad of personal website, and trailjournals allow people to make highly informed decisions about if they're actually going to try, if they are how they're going to do it, what gear to take to stay light, what to eat to stay strong, and what to expect once they're out there.

Just one guess...

rusty075
11-11-2005, 19:19
My bet is that the statistics are a combination of things:

1. More information, available for free over the internet, skews the numbers by reducing the number if unprepared hikers (thus the lower totals), while increasing the success rate for hikers who are serious enough to seek out the info.
2. With the passing of the millenium and the Bryson book, there's fewer "casual thru-hikers" to inflate the total and drag down the completion average. The "core" thru-hiker population probably hasn't changed much.
3. Better gear. The trend towards lighter gear certainly can't be hurting the numbers.
4. Bad statistics to begin with. All of these numbers are flaky, for the various reasons other have stated. We can't even agree on how to define a "thru-hiker".

rickb
11-11-2005, 20:07
You sure?

Sly, I am sure I am wrong.

http://www.appalachiantrail.org/site/c.jkLXJ8MQKtH/b.851153/k.580C/2000Milers_Where_Do_We_Get_the_Numbers.htm

I misread the ATC's explanation. They do use 2000 Miler applications, it seems.

The Ferryman's numbers are just used to help estimate the number of SOBOs, and they calcualte in a fixed drop out rate.

max patch
11-11-2005, 22:34
One reason reported -- not actual -- completion rates are up are internet sites like this one and others.

Individual after individual after individual post that it doesn't matter if you take the more scenic blue blaze instead of the white blazed trail. Or take the Kimsey Creek Trail to bypass the Standing Indian loop. Or aqua blaze. Or hitch ahead 10 or 20 or 500 miles to catch up to your friends. If you have the right map you can even bypass the Whites if you want to.

(All of this is fine if you are out for a good time however you define it. HYOH and all that. But if you are going to fill out that application to the ATC then you need to do the right thing.)

There is no peer pressure to be honest. There is no honor in honesty. Actually, if you admit you actually hiked all the white blazes you are ridiculed as an anal purist or worse. Go ahead and lie to the ATC. Everybody does it!

Or do they?

weary
11-11-2005, 22:42
. Everybody does it! Or do they?
Well, the evidence is that most everyone does. But don't you. Hardly anyone will know, except you. But no one over the coming decades will know you better than you will, Or question your decisions more than you will. So just be honest. Let's face it, the only one who truly will care, is you.

Weary

justusryans
11-11-2005, 22:48
Well, the evidence is that most everyone does. But don't you. Hardly anyone will know, except you. But no one over the coming decades will know you better than you will, Or question your decisions more than you will. So just be honest. Let's face it, the only one who truly will care, is you.

Weary

I agree with Weary, If it's important to you to qualify for thru-hiker with the ATC then do the right thing, if it's not then do what you want. the only person who will know is you. Personally, I don't plan on registering. It's my hike and I'll do it my way, but I won't lie about it either.:-?

ferryman
11-12-2005, 13:01
While the numbers of "thru-hikers" arriving at the Kennebec River this year was 523 from GA to ME., the overall number of 1,266 hikers ferried remained virtually the same as last year. (2004-1,300) All hikers are funneled thru the Kennebec River and with five flood watches this past year, we meet 99 percent of hikers who cross the Kennebec River and even those who ford or take a CCR (counterfeit canoe ride). When hikers arrive to the river they are asked where they started and where they intend to hike to. It isn't our job to qualify any statement made by hikers in a blue, yellow, silver, aqua or polkadot blaze kind of way. They are hiking and enjoying the experience of being on the Appalachian Trail period. The ferry boat still remains down at the AT Crossing awaiting for the final thru-hikers to arrive and the river ramains very high and very cold. Approximately 160 southbounders/ FF (flipfloppers) were given a ride in a conoe across the Kennebec River this year....so far. Congrats to all 2,000 plus milers in 2005 thru-hikers. Steve ps Justin, Where are you? Still in The Whites?

hammock engineer
11-12-2005, 13:19
ferryman, when were the majority of the people headed south ferried. I am planning on going to SOBO direction next june or july. I want to get an idea of when everyone else is passing through.

thanks

TJ aka Teej
11-12-2005, 18:07
Sly, I am sure I am wrong.

http://www.appalachiantrail.org/site/c.jkLXJ8MQKtH/b.851153/k.580C/2000Milers_Where_Do_We_Get_the_Numbers.htm

I misread the ATC's explanation. They do use 2000 Miler applications, it seems.

The Ferryman's numbers are just used to help estimate the number of SOBOs, and they calcualte in a fixed drop out rate.

The Kennebec and Katahdin data is pretty detailed The ATC has a new (3?years old) form to be filled out by Baxter Park staff on AT users. As far as I can tell, the data is collected but goes unpublished and unused.