View Full Version : Scott Jurek Completion Predictions
Pedaling Fool
07-06-2015, 17:20
I'd be interest to see everyone post what they think Scott's odds are of breaking the record. I'd say about 67%. His history and his pace to date pull me toward 100, the toughness of the terrain ahead next 150 mile plus possibility of injury pulls the number south. If he gets to Grafton Notch by close of business tomorrow/Monday am, his odds by me skyrocket. Fun to follow. Very fond of Jenn, but Scott is easy to root for, too.
...Having said that, I'm going to say he will break the record, but it's not a prediction, more of a biased/wishful thinking type of thing. I won't even attempt to guess by how much he breaks the record.
Driver8 already asked the question in the other thread on page 31 (copied above) http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php/111652-Scott-Jurek-on-Appalachian-Trail?p=1983502&viewfull=1#post1983502
However, I don't remember many people taking up his challenge to give the odds of SJ breaking the record. I've already said he'll do it (see above paste) and I'm sticking to that prediction. Anyone want to predict Yea or Nay? Or give odds and/or amount of time he'll complete his journey? Some possible ways to answer it -- answer it anyway you wish.
Will he set the record? Yea/Nay
Odds of him breaking the record? i.e., 0%; 50%; 90%, etc...
Or anyone bold enough to say by how much he'll break the record or fall short of the record....
rocketsocks
07-06-2015, 19:18
Can I wait till he gets to the camp ground? Or is that too much?
he'll make it, he's got a trick up his sleeve, I just know it!
really hard to say, my mind is leaning towards no. but i'd say he still has a 49% chance of doing it. after 4 long slow days it's getting hard to see him turning this around. but I hope he surprises me, he's put in one hell of an effort!
Sarcasm the elf
07-06-2015, 20:42
I'll make my prediction sometime next week :D
Biggie Master
07-06-2015, 20:51
Just switched from the other SJ channel (thread)... Couldn't tell if i was scratching my watch or winding my a$$ -- with all the different directions that thread was heading.
Like several others have mentioned, his slowed pace is concerning to me, but like rocketsocks, I think he has a little something saved up for the finish. It's going to be close, but I'm pulling for him, and I think he will get the FKT by a hair.
I think he has it. He is getting within range of "a day's run". Given his background he can endure a lot of pain and punishment in the final push. Haven't been paying close enough attention to pick a time but I would bet your paycheck.
richardw67
07-06-2015, 23:05
I am not rooting for him. The thing that is upsetting to me is the coverage runners world is giving it. It's not a sport or an event. It's a journey. Pure and simple. It's not about being backed by corporate sponsors and crews and crews of people. The AT to me is a counter culture that doesn't want the spot light.
Ultra running was once a counter culture itself, but not anymore.
They can have the records and the self gratification that they did it faster. But why rush through beauty?
Today's society has become to focused on doing everything fast.
This has nothing to do with SJ. He just wants to paint his masterpiece. I just hope its ugly as hell.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
MuddyWaters
07-06-2015, 23:22
May get it, may not. Depends on his condition, which could stay same, or worsen. I doubt it gets much better at this point in the current terrain. His pace indicates some possible injury. That last day, may not be as big as a healthy Jurek would do after all.
And , how Baxters rules come in to play is a question. I dont expect them to be eager to accomodate an AT sideshow, with all the other AT issues they have ongoing.
I am not rooting for him. The thing that is upsetting to me is the coverage runners world is giving it. It's not a sport or an event. It's a journey. Pure and simple. It's not about being backed by corporate sponsors and crews and crews of people. The AT to me is a counter culture that doesn't want the spot light.
Ultra running was once a counter culture itself, but not anymore.
They can have the records and the self gratification that they did it faster. But why rush through beauty?
Today's society has become to focused on doing everything fast.
This has nothing to do with SJ. He just wants to paint his masterpiece. I just hope its ugly as hell.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
what compels a person to click on a topic on a speed hiking and trail running forum, then proceed to talk trash about speed hiking and trail running?
Traveler
07-07-2015, 06:30
I'll make my prediction sometime next week :D
My guess is you'd still get an argument :rolleyes:
what compels a person to click on a topic on a speed hiking and trail running forum, then proceed to talk trash about speed hiking and trail running?
The UL forum used to be the same way. :)
Ha ha. Oh boy. I'll reiterate for the sake of doing so on a separate specific thread answering PF's SPECIFIC question. If he's not hiding an injury I''ll say 90% he'll get the FKT. Even if he has to go the last 48 hrs with little or no sleep. He's not going to crush JPD's FKT though. I think this shows how well JPD AND HER CAMP executed!
BTW, Richardw67 have you done ANY research on the ink various running venues and the running community afforded JPD's FKT? Runners World, Ulltar Running Mag, etc. One of the things some of her critics point to is that she turned the AT into a racetrack. Here's one article. http://www.runnersworld.com/trail-runner-profiles/5-minutes-with-jennifer-pharr-davis I like how she pulls everyone together under a common goal at the finish of the article. Let me pointedly ask do you think she has made the AT a better place overall and has she used her FKT as a platform for overall advancement? IMHO, I'd say YES! Am I FKT seeker or caught up in FKTs? Absolutely not. :)
Water Rat
07-07-2015, 08:54
I think he will get it, but by hours and not days. Jen set a pretty high bar...
I do have a question (and it has probably already been answered elsewhere and I really haven't followed the FKT attempts since Jen) - who holds the current MEN'S FKT? Having Jen hold the FKT for men & women, means she will still retain the FKT for at least women's category....until another woman comes along to break the record.
richardw67
07-07-2015, 08:58
I'm think what JPD did an was amazing effort. And she did it lean. No big sponsors. She is in my mind a true reflection of what the AT is about. I have read her books. And I would recommended anyone that has a chance to hear her one of her lectures go see it. She is a great ambassador of the trail.
I hope her record stands. Will it? I haven't a clue.
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Tuckahoe
07-07-2015, 09:04
I am not rooting for him. The thing that is upsetting to me is the coverage runners world is giving it. It's not a sport or an event. It's a journey. Pure and simple. It's not about being backed by corporate sponsors and crews and crews of people. The AT to me is a counter culture that doesn't want the spot light.
Ultra running was once a counter culture itself, but not anymore.
They can have the records and the self gratification that they did it faster. But why rush through beauty?
Today's society has become to focused on doing everything fast.
This has nothing to do with SJ. He just wants to paint his masterpiece. I just hope its ugly as hell.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
It is one thing to define for yourself what "the trail" and what you want to seek from it. It's pretty arrogant to foist your defintion onto others, or to demand that someone else's journey fit your expections.
Until this morning I had not followed Jurek's attempt at FKT. I really didn't care and it in no way impacted or defined how I enjoy my time on the trail.
I am not rooting for him. The thing that is upsetting to me is the coverage runners world is giving it. It's not a sport or an event. It's a journey. Pure and simple. It's not about being backed by corporate sponsors and crews and crews of people. The AT to me is a counter culture that doesn't want the spot light.
Ultra running was once a counter culture itself, but not anymore.
They can have the records and the self gratification that they did it faster. But why rush through beauty?
Today's society has become to focused on doing everything fast.
This has nothing to do with SJ. He just wants to paint his masterpiece. I just hope its ugly as hell.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
"The AT to me", which I highlighted above, is the key phrase. To YOU, the AT is not about speed records. To OTHERS, it is. It is a foot trail used by a variety of people with different objectives and goals. It is amazing to me that a continuous footpath like the AT can exist so close to major eastern population centers. To wish that the aspirations of other people who don't share YOUR priority should be "ugly as hell" is itself a sentiment that is "ugly as hell".
he finishes sometime late monday or early tuesday. possibly because he arrives at katahdin late and either thinks better of it or the rangers wont let him up.
the above statement will be my loan contribution to this thread, fear not
he finishes sometime late monday or early tuesday. possibly because he arrives at katahdin late and either thinks better of it or the rangers wont let him up.
the above statement will be my loan contribution to this thread, fear not
Yeah tdoczi, Jurek and his crew are so incompetent that they didn't consider Baxter SP regulations when planning the attempt. Yeah right. He may or may not break the record but I'm pretty confident that he won't get to the end on the verge of breaking the record only to be turned away.
Yeah tdoczi, Jurek and his crew are so incompetent that they didn't consider Baxter SP regulations when planning the attempt. Yeah right. He may or may not break the record but I'm pretty confident that he won't get to the end on the verge of breaking the record only to be turned away.
he wont be anywhere near breaking the record.
Took you only 32 minutes to become a liar in this thread.
I think he will get it, but by hours and not days. Jen set a pretty high bar...
I do have a question (and it has probably already been answered elsewhere and I really haven't followed the FKT attempts since Jen) - who holds the current MEN'S FKT? Having Jen hold the FKT for men & women, means she will still retain the FKT for at least women's category....until another woman comes along to break the record.
In 2011 Jenn set the current record by beating Andrew Thompson who hiked in 2005 needing 47 days 13 hrs and 31 minutes....meaning Jenn shaved a full day off the record time.
ExNihilo
07-07-2015, 10:09
I think he will get it, but by hours and not days. Jen set a pretty high bar...
I do have a question (and it has probably already been answered elsewhere and I really haven't followed the FKT attempts since Jen) - who holds the current MEN'S FKT? Having Jen hold the FKT for men & women, means she will still retain the FKT for at least women's category....until another woman comes along to break the record.
Why have a men's record vs a women's record anymore? JPD has shown that the field is wide open. Why not have a NOBO vs SOBO FKT record for the AT? As was stated before in another thread I think- other long trails have a NOBO vs SOBO record. Then if Scott doesn't get the overall record, he'll end up with a NOBO record and JPD will hold both the SOBO and Overall record. I'm new to this whole thing so I dunno. Just following with interest.
Also, what does JPD think about Scott and his attempt? Loads of people are jumping to her defense but Jen seems to be holding her peace (which is a good thing in my opinion).
As for my prediction:
Yes
52.75%
45 Days, 7 hours, 25 minutes
Water Rat
07-07-2015, 10:36
Why have a men's record vs a women's record anymore? JPD has shown that the field is wide open. Why not have a NOBO vs SOBO FKT record for the AT? As was stated before in another thread I think- other long trails have a NOBO vs SOBO record. Then if Scott doesn't get the overall record, he'll end up with a NOBO record and JPD will hold both the SOBO and Overall record. I'm new to this whole thing so I dunno. Just following with interest.
Also, what does JPD think about Scott and his attempt? Loads of people are jumping to her defense but Jen seems to be holding her peace (which is a good thing in my opinion).
As for my prediction:
Yes
52.75%
45 Days, 7 hours, 25 minutes
My question stems from the discussion of FKTs when Anish was going for her FKT, and also from admittedly not knowing how such records are divided.
There is another thread going that contains an article whereJPD discusses the passing of the torch. The article is a good read and speaks volumes about who she is. :)
thompsoniac
07-07-2015, 10:44
The women's/ men's thing just sort of happened after Jen broke the record in 2011. Pete Bakwin posted it on FKT and listed it as such, just like most of the other FKTs on the site. In terms of trail records, direction is not a consideration. Neither is order of peaks in a peak bagging record.
I agree that the field is wide open.
Re: Jurek
In my opinion, he entered NH with a full day lead but got off on a bad foot by hiking into the AM hours his last day in VT. He immediately had MPH problems that never resolved, ending each day later and later until he lost his day/night orientation. He is now dead on record pace.
if everything goes perfectly (in my opinion) he will climb the Big K looking at his watch. This is very doable but he cannot afford MPH issues and he must nail his daily mileage every day, no exceptions.
ExNihilo
07-07-2015, 10:45
My question stems from the discussion of FKTs when Anish was going for her FKT, and also from admittedly not knowing how such records are divided.
There is another thread going that contains an article whereJPD discusses the passing of the torch. The article is a good read and speaks volumes about who she is. :)
That looks like something I'd love to read. Can you point me to the article or post? The search function on this site leaves something to be desired and I've definitely searched before.
Thanks!
Water Rat
07-07-2015, 10:50
That looks like something I'd love to read. Can you point me to the article or post? The search function on this site leaves something to be desired and I've definitely searched before.
Thanks!
Absolutely! Here is a link to the article itself: http://www.runnersworld.com/trail-racing/appalachian-trail-record-holder-ready-to-pass-the-torch
swisscross
07-07-2015, 11:12
Prediction. "Pain" and "barbecue".
Took you only 32 minutes to become a liar in this thread.
just clarifying my prediction as it seemed to have been misunderstood.
Mike Steger
07-07-2015, 16:50
45 days 8 hours
Lone Wolf
07-07-2015, 17:53
i predict Karl "Speedgoat" Meltzer will have the record at this time next year
imscotty
07-07-2015, 18:08
My prediction - I do not think he is going to make it.
He must be incredibly sleep deprived at this point, I worry about the increasing risk of slips and falls due to this. I am in awe of his accomplishment and determination and wish him good health.
colorado_rob
07-07-2015, 19:17
46 days 11 hours.
imscotty
07-07-2015, 19:27
I would like to add to my prediction....
He misses the FKT overall, but breaks the FKT for men category.
i predict Karl "Speedgoat" Meltzer will have the record at this time next year
Karl won't start until mid-July, but yes he has a chance. Another great guy as well.
I will jump in on this game. Nothing to win or lose so why not.
45d 12h 12min
That looks like something I'd love to read. Can you point me to the article or post? The search function on this site leaves something to be desired and I've definitely searched before.
Thanks!
This one has a good JPD quote ��
http://www.mensjournal.com/adventure/collection/scott-jureks-masterpiece-taking-on-the-appalachian-trail-20150629?utm_source=newsletter&utm_campaign=063015_11&utm_medium=email&ea=cmlja2JvdWRyaWVAZ21haWwuY29t
imscotty
07-07-2015, 20:52
46d 11h 19m 59s
Wait a second - wasn't there a leap second a few days ago? 46d 11h 59s would be a tie!
rocketsocks
07-07-2015, 21:01
46d 11h 19m 59s
Wait a second - wasn't there a leap second a few days ago? 46d 11h 59s would be a tie!
make it an even 20 min, you could win both showcases.
Second Half
07-07-2015, 21:33
He will be standing on the summit of Katahdin at noon Sunday.
The jealousy, inferiority complexes and personal inadequacies come out of the mentally challenged quickly. Even if you don't like a person (for whatever reason) learn to respect the accomplishment regardless, as long as it was with done with fair play. The military respects the rank, not the person (sometimes both). As citizens, we should respect the office even if we don't care for the holder...etc. Let people hike their own hike.
Apparently nobody should claim a through hike success unless they were wearing Keds, carrying a burlap sack and used a shower curtain for a shelter. If he breaks the record, he's the record holder period, regardless of the press coverage and/or team he built to support the attempt.
I'll say he makes it late Sunday morning. 46 days 6 hours. Right before noon. Odds to set new record: 53%. Looks like the weather improves after a wet Wednesday morning - that'll help, though there's talk of a mean Sunday.
He makes Pierce Pond tomorrow, Monson or thereabouts the next day. Halfway through HMW or a bit past Friday into Saturday. Saturday into Sunday to KSC, then a nice, leisurely stroll up Big K Sunday morning. If the weather's threatening Sunday, it'll affect his finish time, can't predict what that means this far out.
Traveler
07-08-2015, 06:43
The jealousy, inferiority complexes and personal inadequacies come out of the mentally challenged quickly. Even if you don't like a person (for whatever reason) learn to respect the accomplishment regardless, as long as it was with done with fair play. The military respects the rank, not the person (sometimes both). As citizens, we should respect the office even if we don't care for the holder...etc. Let people hike their own hike.
Apparently nobody should claim a through hike success unless they were wearing Keds, carrying a burlap sack and used a shower curtain for a shelter. If he breaks the record, he's the record holder period, regardless of the press coverage and/or team he built to support the attempt.
As a heads up, can we move past the use of "retards" and "mentally challenged" in making comparisons in these threads? That type of thing denotes poor education or low intellect and can be disturbing to those with special needs family members.
Thanks.
Violent Green
07-08-2015, 07:50
I think he makes it. Breaks the record by about (7) hours. He has slowed down considerably, but there really isn't much that could stop him physically at this point. Which means he would have to break mentally. That's not going to happen.
Ryan
MuddyWaters
07-08-2015, 08:12
I think he makes it. Breaks the record by about (7) hours. He has slowed down considerably, but there really isn't much that could stop him physically at this point. Which means he would have to break mentally. That's not going to happen.
Ryan
Yep.
I suspect he gets it as well, by anywhere from a couple hrs to a day, depending on how hard he pushes the last part. That is his element, to keep going 24 hrs.
Its not the type record he wanted though. This one will get broken. If he comes back and does it sobo again, he might make that 42 days.
Pedaling Fool
07-08-2015, 09:52
I think he makes it. Breaks the record by about (7) hours. He has slowed down considerably, but there really isn't much that could stop him physically at this point. Which means he would have to break mentally. That's not going to happen.
Ryan
I had to re-read your post a couple times, thinking W T F..., then I realized I was confusing you with violent orgasm:D
That "troll" has been spot-on so far and I'm not just saying that because I have a few hundy wrapped up in betting against Jurek.
Violent Green
07-08-2015, 12:41
I had to re-read your post a couple times, thinking W T F..., then I realized I was confusing you with violent orgasm:D
I know! I was going through reading a couple days ago and thought "Wait. I didn't post that. Ohhhhh."
Ryan
I know! I was going through reading a couple days ago and thought "Wait. I didn't post that. Ohhhhh."
Ryan
Is your s/n an REM song reference? Mine is.
Never mind - the REM song referenced an Aussie band. Just looked it up. ...
OwenRunning
07-08-2015, 15:22
i predict Karl "Speedgoat" Meltzer will have the record at this time next year
Good prediction LW! I'm interested in Speedgoats attempt but not sure the wider AT crowd will be so crazy about it. He has the knowledge of the trail now and has learned the hard way about these record attempts. I will be rooting for him - afterall, 2189 miles is not that far. :)
imscotty
07-12-2015, 20:04
My prediction - I do not think he is going to make it.
He must be incredibly sleep deprived at this point, I worry about the increasing risk of slips and falls due to this. I am in awe of his accomplishment and determination and wish him good health.
Mea culpa, I was WRONG.
All the naysayers must have retired shamefully to their Lazy Boy recliners in a forgotten corner of their basements. :p
Sarcasm the elf
07-12-2015, 21:11
I'll make my prediction sometime next week :D
I'm almost ready. Should have my final prediction in the next 24 hours. :banana
imscotty
07-12-2015, 21:52
All the naysayers must have retired shamefully to their Lazy Boy recliners in a forgotten corner of their basements. :p
Actually, after I logged off this afternoon I finished some painting and other chores around the house. Now my wife says I don't have to sleep on the Lazy Boy anymore and can finally return to my Big Boy bed :)
rocketsocks
07-12-2015, 22:09
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sZrgxHvNNUc
rocketsocks
07-12-2015, 22:11
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sZrgxHvNNUchttps://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sZrgxHvNNUc
rocketsocks
07-12-2015, 22:12
Oh forget it...ugh!
Tuckahoe
07-12-2015, 22:34
Here ya go Socks...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZrgxHvNNUc
Water Rat
07-12-2015, 22:44
I think he will get it, but by hours and not days. Jen set a pretty high bar...
A heartfelt congratulations to Scott Jurek! May he be every bit the trail ambassador Jen will always be. I also hope that poor man gets some sleep! He had an amazing journey and it was awesome to be able to tag along.
Odd Man Out
07-12-2015, 23:10
I'm predicting 46 days, 8 hrs, 8 min!
Great Job SJ
For the record, the main Jurek thread got to 218,920 views and beyond. Twas a great thread about a great attempt. RIP.
Lone Wolf
07-13-2015, 22:30
he almost quit 5 days before katahdin
Pedaling Fool
07-13-2015, 22:43
he finishes sometime late monday or early tuesday. possibly because he arrives at katahdin late and either thinks better of it or the rangers wont let him up.
the above statement will be my loan contribution to this thread, fear not
I'll say he makes it late Sunday morning. 46 days 6 hours. Right before noon. Odds to set new record: 53%. Looks like the weather improves after a wet Wednesday morning - that'll help, though there's talk of a mean Sunday.
He makes Pierce Pond tomorrow, Monson or thereabouts the next day. Halfway through HMW or a bit past Friday into Saturday. Saturday into Sunday to KSC, then a nice, leisurely stroll up Big K Sunday morning. If the weather's threatening Sunday, it'll affect his finish time, can't predict what that means this far out.
I think you may have come the closest in predicting his finish time.
BTW, OMO's prediction doesn't count, because he went over by one minute. Just like the rules in The Price is Right TV game show, if you're over by just one dollar, you lose:):D
As a heads up, can we move past the use of "retards" and "mentally challenged" in making comparisons in these threads? That type of thing denotes poor education or low intellect and can be disturbing to those with special needs family members.
Thanks.
Can we get past making a completely different meaning out something because we ignore the context, forum or environment a comment was made?
Thank you.
rocketsocks
07-14-2015, 06:45
Here ya go Socks...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZrgxHvNNUcThank you, I was having some issues.