View Full Version : To finish mid-July, when should I start?
My brother is getting married next summer and today announced the date: 23 July. I can of course just take a break from the trail and go back but I like the idea of finishing and taking a nice vacation there (near Denver). It will also (probably??) be the end of my round-the-world trip, after which I am likely moving to the NW.
I'm still in planning stages of course. Doing shorter hikes off and on and testing equipment on my trip and building up strength. Right now I do great on flats (speed and endurance), am sucking on steep uphills. Problem is more strength right now, I catch my breath easily when I stop, but I have to stop on uphills really really frequently. Downhills I can manage though cautious. I'll be 34 for the AT and in average shape overall. I really am not sure at all how many miles to estimate I'd do per day, or any clue how to figure that, or how many months I'd need.
Are there any resources to figure that out, at least in the ballpark?
Also I don't plan on doing many (any?) Zeros, but definitely near-o's.
Regardless of what anyone tells you, there is no way to ever answer this question. If you look at averages then, on average you will be sitting at home regardless of when you start because most people don't finish. In any case you will find the averages for finishers is here.
http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/content.php/44
MuddyWaters
08-02-2015, 08:30
There are averages, and mapmap put together an excellent summary of average times and speeds.
Only you can determine what you can do, by actually hiking with gear though.
Average is 5-6 months, in warmer conditions starting in late march /early april.
So far, you sound average.
It really is, all about the weight carried imo. You are in control of this.
How to figure out how many miles you could do? I would say take a 6-7 day trip down to GA sometime this year and see if you can complete the GA AT in 5 days or less. It should be fairly easily done in 5 with an average of 15.7 miles per day for a fit, active hiker. I would say most hikers I come across who don't hike regularly will not be able to keep this pace, but for a regular, fit hiker, this pace should be fairly easy.
15 miles days would require 146 days with no zeros, no neros, no weather delays, no health/injury delays, no side trails, no time to go to town, etc.
20 miles days would require 110 days with above stipulations.
25 miles per day would require 88 days with above stipulations.
I've never thru hiked, but a section hike a lot. I would say a very big majority of thru hikers will not/cannot start at 15 miles per day. If I were to hazard a guess, I would say 85% of hikers don't start at this pace.
However, you eventually become conditioned to hiking and your pace increases naturally. How much? Who knows. I hear stories of hikers who started shelter to shelter getting up to 20 mile days further north (if they hadn't quit by then) with easier terrain.
Best way to figure it out is to get out and do it. I would also recommend starting somewhere in the south so you can get a picture of what it would be like at the beginning.
HooKooDooKu
08-02-2015, 10:03
You would need to start sometime in January to realistically expect to finish by mid-July. But that means you will need some winter camping skills starting that early. And because you are starting so early, you have to expect that weather will cause you to have some zero days.
Had a nephew that hiked it between the end of Christmas and late June. He was tall, strong, (track scolarship), and practiced at winter camping. Seem to recall he made it thru the southern sections ok, but had to take a week off in New York because of a snow storm.
So it is doable... but unless you're really prepared for the colder weather you're likely to encounter, you are stacking the even more against the odds.
Thanks for your replies. I won't be in the states again until February so a "test" hike there isn't likely for me. I guess I will continue with my fitness, also see if I can pick a few good points to fly West from and aim for mid July.. One thing that hopefully will help for fitness is that my hikes I've been doing and for for next couple months are at higher altitudes (Tien Shans, Pamirs, Nepal, etc.) I usually have better strength at lower levels after.
Definitely I am aiming for lightweight and I know that will help too. My "big 3" that I'm doing my RTW trip with as well weigh 4.5 lbs. If I start early I'll need to add something to the sleep setup (currently 15F quilt plus surprisingly insulating foil-covered CC pad, but I get cold easily). I'm confident with my tent for bad weather so far though.
Spirit Walker
08-02-2015, 21:25
If you start your hike in January or February, you won't be able to be as lightweight. It will be cold and snowy the first 3 or 4 months of your hike. That may mean more time off in towns, or just slower hiking because it is hard to hike on icy and snowy trail. Because of the time of year, your hiking days will be very short until April or so. (Dark at 5:00 pm.) A great many of the early starters go home. Views are great when you hike in winter, but it can be psychologically hard to see no green, no flowers, no birds or squirrels, just bare trees.