View Full Version : El Nino?

08-16-2015, 13:41
So, I've heard the news about "Godzilla" like El nino conditions brewing in the Pacific. Apparently
the situation could be one that tops the record books. From what I gather, this would
most likely favor a colder and wetter than average winter and spring in the southeast. From what I
gather as well, this might also set the stage for extreme precipitation events, like the flooding and frequent
rainfall that occurred in GA,TN, NC, and CA with the last big El Nino in 1997. 1997's big El Nino and it's effects
I read a lot about here: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/techrpts/tr9802/tr9802.pdf

If the strong El Nino and all it's consequences do come to fruition, this would likely make the late winter/spring southern
Appalachians snowier, wetter, and colder than it normally is. This could be a frustrating situation for those of us (like me)
who were planning on a mid to late February 2016 NOBO start. We all know that nothing can be more of a bummer than days on end with
constant precipitation.

However, I'm not trying to be a Debbie downer here. After all, no one can say with 100% accuracy what the weather will be like 6 months from now. For all we really know, it might be 50 degrees and sunny all winter. Anywho, I was thinking about this situation regarding my NOBO 2016 hike and was a little concerned. Let me know what you think!

08-16-2015, 14:36
Could be an interesting spring. We'll have to wait and see. At some point in the mid to late winter, the El Nino induced zonal Pacific jet stream flow which had been keeping the south east relatively warm and wet will shift, allowing the Polar jet stream to finally dip south. The weather could get real bad as that transition takes place and then wobbles back and forth. By late winter there will be some really cold and heavy air up in Canada just itching to head south. My guess is this would likely happen in late Feb and early March, as usual.

08-16-2015, 14:38
They say the one in '97 to '98 was the strongest on record but it started weak and ended strongly...this one is starting strong, so there is a possibility it could get even stronger or just peter out.

08-16-2015, 18:01
They say the one in '97 to '98 was the strongest on record but it started weak and ended strongly...this one is starting strong, so there is a possibility it could get even stronger or just peter out.

Let's hope it peter's out! It'll be interesting to keep up with and see what goes down....

09-04-2015, 07:36
I wonder what it means for us SOBOs. I'm sure it will mean higher water for early starters and more blow down, but I wonder if a La Nina will follow El Nino, making for a dryer winter down south as we approach the end of the year. That would be nice.

09-04-2015, 07:59
I know one thing. We'll know in June. Maybe July.
In "normal" years precipitation (liquid or solid) events in the North Carolina Rain Forest are measured in days, 3 to 7, according to WhiteBlaze's own Tipi Walter.
Yet we still get questions like "I want to lighten my pack. Do I really need rain gear in North Carolina?" or "I'm thinking about leaving my tent at home and just using shelters. What do Y'all think?"
Stay dry. Be safe. Have fun!


Pedaling Fool
09-04-2015, 08:32
We don't know what's going to happen, but the Old Farmer's Almanac has a fairly impressive record of forecasting these things and I like reading and watching...


BTW, last year a lot of people and articles bashed the FA, but not so much this year. They have put NOAA to shame and NOAA now knows its place:D. http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php/106910-Now-a-mild-winter-is-forecast?highlight=

09-04-2015, 11:49
With how sensationalist the media is, the coverage this "monster" El Nino is getting doesn't surprise me. Total clickbait. I'm not altering my plans one way or another until we get within a month.

If March is actually looking brutal, I may consider pushing back to early April.