View Full Version : Where might I be in mid-August?
If I do a thru-hike, I'd need to get off the trail for a week or so in mid-August (for my son's & husband's birthdays...my son is quite young, so no way am I missing it!), and I'm wondering where might be a good place to shoot for to make getting off the trail easy.
I realize where I'd be could vary quite a bit depending on NOBO/SOBO, hiking speed, start date, etc...so this is probably an impossible question. But I'm happy to plan my entire hike around it. We don't live near the trail now, but 'might' live in the Washington DC area by the time I do this, if that helps. My preference would be for an average pace hike. NOBO preferred since I'm not hugely experienced, and while I'm not a partier/crowd person, I don't imagine I'd enjoy being COMPLETELY alone for days on end either...but I'm open to SOBO if it works better time-wise.
Any suggestions? Alternate itineraries are fine too, but I'd like to finish at one of the trail endpoints, and minimize cost.
Flounder940
09-15-2015, 13:12
It really depends on when you start, and where you start. Once you decide that, and a bit of information about your fitness level, and what kind of mileage you expect, then it can be ballparked.
Just to throw something out there...how about a late march start, NOBO, starting slow and working my way up to avg 15/day. I'm in decent shape but not in backpacking shape if that makes sense? I'm in my 30's so I'll need recovery days early on as I adjust.
Just to throw something out there...how about a late march start, NOBO, starting slow and working my way up to avg 15/day. I'm in decent shape but not in backpacking shape if that makes sense? I'm in my 30's so I'll need recovery days early on as I adjust.
done or very close to it. vermont at the very least.
HooKooDooKu
09-15-2015, 15:12
Here's a gross calculation:
First, here is an approximation of mileage by state collected from Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appalachian_Trail):
State/Miles/Cumulative
GA/75/75
NC/88/163
NC-TN/200/363
TN/71/434
VA/550/984
WV/4/988
MD/41/1029
PA/230/1259
NJ/72/1331
NY/85/1416
CT/52/1468
MA/90/1558
VT/150/1708
NH/161/1869
ME/281/2150
As a gross average, it is reasonable to say the typical hiker that completes the AT in one season takes about 6 months to do so.
6 month * 30 days = 180 days.
Simple math says the average daily progress must therefore be 2150 miles / 180 days which is about:
12MPD
(Yes, you might average 15 miles each day you hike, but you will likely have some zero days such that your overall average progression will be 12MPD).
90% of thru hikers go NOBO. So you're most likely want to start in GA and end in ME.
To balance starting late enough to avoid really cold weather in the Smokies with getting to Kitahdin before the park closes in late fall, you'll need to start about the 1st of April.
April to Mid-August is 136 days.
136 day * 12MPD ~= 1625 miles.
Looking at the chart above, that puts you in MA heading to VT.
This step-by-step approximation is pretty darn close to tdoczi's off the cuff approximation of "vermont at the very least".
done or very close to it. vermont at the very least.
That might be a fair generalization for a nobo hiker, but not necessarily for sobo -- they start later. Not for flip floppers either, they're not hemmed in by Katahdin "shutdown."
HooKooDooKu
09-15-2015, 15:56
That might be a fair generalization for a nobo hiker, but not necessarily for sobo -- they start later. Not for flip floppers either, they're not hemmed in by Katahdin "shutdown."
If mid-March to early-April is a 'typical' start time for NOBO, what is a comparable start time for SOBO?
That might be a fair generalization for a nobo hiker, but not necessarily for sobo -- they start later. Not for flip floppers either, they're not hemmed in by Katahdin "shutdown."
i was using the specific example parameters, nobo, late march start, 15 MPD. I took 15 MPD to mean actual average including zeros. guessing as to what exactly late march and mid august means. came up with over 2000 miles done.
HooKooDooKu
09-15-2015, 16:18
i was using the specific example parameters, nobo, late march start, 15 MPD. I took 15 MPD to mean actual average including zeros. guessing as to what exactly late march and mid august means. came up with over 2000 miles done.
15 MPD average (including zero days) would mean that you would complete the AT in about 4.75 months (less than 20 weeks).
I meant I'd like to work up to averaging 15 miles/day on the days I actually hiked. So not including days off. Thanks everyone, this gives me a general idea.
If mid-March to early-April is a 'typical' start time for NOBO, what is a comparable start time for SOBO?
June-July. Black flies and lingering snow (and soggy trail) keep folks from starting earlier. If you do one of those inside-out flip-flops, the sky's the limit. (Harpers Ferry toward either end.)
HooKooDooKu
09-15-2015, 18:14
June-July. Black flies and lingering snow (and soggy trail) keep folks from starting earlier. If you do one of those inside-out flip-flops, the sky's the limit. (Harpers Ferry toward either end.)
Given that the Smokies can get really cold by December, I'm going to assume a SOBO wants to finish by the end of November (say around Thanksgiving). Using my 6 month estimate, that means an early June start.
Early June to mid August is about 10 weeks (70 days).
12 MPD ==> 840 miles.
Working backwards (where Kitahdin is mile marker 2150) yields mile marker 1310.
So SOBO puts you about at the NJ/NY state lines in mid-August. Even if you make adjustments (start earlier, hike more MPD), that still puts you north of Harper's Ferry (before the 1/2 way point) if you try SOBO.
Given that the OP wanted to end at either Springer or Kitahdin AND minimize expenses, seems like the best way to do both is to NOT flip-flop (adds to travel expenses). I would think you would also want to start as early as possible so that you've got most (if not all) of the hike completed by the time you have to get off the trail. That would suggest a NOBO trip (GA->ME) and either starting as early as possible (perhaps have the hike completed by mid-Aug) or start a little later (perhaps mid-to-late April) so-as to be near DC when mid-August comes.
Very helpful, and lots to think about, thank you.
A "typical" completing NOBO thru-hiker is in NH or ME in mid-August. A "typical" completing SOBO thru-hiker is in MA, CT or NY mid-August.
Here is a link to an article with statistical info about completing NOBOs: http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/content.php/44
Here is a link to an article with statistical info about completing SOBOs: http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/content.php/697
A typical "thruhiker" is sitting at home since the majority don't finish. Rather than having people speculate about how far an inexperienced hiker may get you would using your time much more wisely by getting as much hiking experience as possible before your trip. Then you will be able to answer your question yourself much better than a random group of strangers.
i also question whether you are mentally prepared for this trip. The statement about no way you could miss your sons birthday raises a red flag about whether you are willing to do what it take to succeed in a thru hike. No harm in trying, but I would at least consider that aspect before making a major commitment.
my suggestion is try to be at Harpers Ferry, WV in mid-August, you have MARC and Amtrak service there daily to Washington D.C., where there is plenty of air, rail and bus service available to whatever destination you want. It's quite easy to return to the AT at HF when you get back also.
you can revers-engineer whatever hike plan you come up with to be at HF in mid August. I think a SoBo thru would work best for you or a flip flop. Going NoBo from Springer in March or April, you would most likely be well north of HF by mid August, somewhere in New England by then
Thanks for the suggestions, lots of good info here.
And Malto, while I appreciate your opinion, I do take some mild offense to your comments. I am taking some shorter trips as I'm able, to gain experience. And to each their own of course, but I would consider an attempted thru as successful as a completed thru if the experience was positive. As someone without a ton of backpacking experience/not much familiarity with how complicated it is to get on and off the AT, and a young family, I'm simply looking for information to see if this could work for me AND my family without me waiting until my son goes to college. If not so be it, but no harm in asking others for ideas, is there? You are correct though, in that a lot of thought will go into whether or not I make the attempt or just do sections.
Thanks all.
Thanks for the suggestions, lots of good info here.
And Malto, while I appreciate your opinion, I do take some mild offense to your comments. I am taking some shorter trips as I'm able, to gain experience. And to each their own of course, but I would consider an attempted thru as successful as a completed thru if the experience was positive. As someone without a ton of backpacking experience/not much familiarity with how complicated it is to get on and off the AT, and a young family, I'm simply looking for information to see if this could work for me AND my family without me waiting until my son goes to college. If not so be it, but no harm in asking others for ideas, is there? You are correct though, in that a lot of thought will go into whether or not I make the attempt or just do sections.
Thanks all.
No offense intended at all. I have seen many people leave the trail due to "mental/emotional/(fill in the blank)" reasons, happened recently to a good friend . And by no means am I trying to discourage you. (maybe trying to close the gap between the Thru hike dream and on trail reality.)
No offense intended at all. I have seen many people leave the trail due to "mental/emotional/(fill in the blank)" reasons, happened recently to a good friend . And by no means am I trying to discourage you. (maybe trying to close the gap between the Thru hike dream and on trail reality.)
Got it, and sorry if I read too much into your post. :)