How early is too early? CT and points north

[Treecycler]

Hi - my father and I have been hiking the AT in month-long NOBO sections ('08, '10, '12, '13 and '15). We started at Springer in '08 and made it to Hot Springs, then picked up there in 2010, etc. We got off the trail this year near Stormville, NY.

Next year I may be able to get a leave of absence from my job (up to 3 mo.) so that we can finally finish the trail. We would really like to get ahead of the bubble since it promises to be a big one. However, we have heard that VT is basically closed in May for mud season. What would be the pros and cons of a 3-mo. section hike leaving Stormville around the second week in May? Does that set us up to hit the black fly season?

[Venchka]

Why not leave from Baxter State Park after the 100 Mile Wilderness has dried out a bit? You won't hit the NOBO bubble. The SOBO crowd will spread out quickly.

Wayne

[Traveler]

Black fly "season" usually starts when conditions are just right, so it can be difficult to time it well a year out. A lot depends on what the snowfall was during the winter, did spring start early, is it hot earlier than usual, or stay cold much later than usual, ad infinitum.

A commonly used axiom for black fly season in VT is it starts on Mothers Day, ends on Fathers Day, roughly mid May through late June. Maine has a nearly similar window for these pests from late May into early July. While these are commonly held rules of thumb, the variables are huge so be prepared with head nets. Your plans sound like you might avoid most of them (there can be areas on the trail where hold out rebel black flies go to party and annoy people), but you will likely experience a few.

Good luck!