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Rmcpeak
09-29-2015, 14:18
I've planned a 42 mile section hike in Southern VA for this weekend. The current forecast is 4 inches of rain over the 3 days we plan to hike (1 inch, 2 inches, and 1 inch).

Is it possible to make forward progress on the trail in Southern, VA (Triple Crown) in those kind of conditions or should I just bag this trip? All the arrangements are made (hotel, shuttle, etc) and I'm packed and this is the only weekend I can get out this Fall.

I'm looking for some sage advice from more experienced hikers and maybe a little nudge one way or the other.


Thanks!

ddanko2
09-29-2015, 14:23
I'm sure Dragon's Tooth would be tricky in the rain, as it is quite technical even in dry, sunny conditions. The rest of the trail is like any other hiking in the rain - wet. At least you may find better drinking water in this stretch, at it is notoriously an unreliable stretch for water from Dragon's Tooth until over McAfee Knob.

Rmcpeak
09-29-2015, 14:27
Do you mean that the Tooth itself is technical, or the trail up to it? I can probably live with out "summiting" the actual Tooth, if that's what you mean.

Yardsale
09-29-2015, 14:29
if you have the appropriate gear, i say go.

Yardsale
09-29-2015, 14:30
and the appropriate mind set too, that you will be wet the whole time.

Swimmer
09-29-2015, 14:33
I've planned a 42 mile section hike in Southern VA for this weekend. The current forecast is 4 inches of rain over the 3 days we plan to hike (1 inch, 2 inches, and 1 inch).

Is it possible to make forward progress on the trail in Southern, VA (Triple Crown) in those kind of conditions or should I just bag this trip? All the arrangements are made (hotel, shuttle, etc) and I'm packed and this is the only weekend I can get out this Fall.

I'm looking for some sage advice from more experienced hikers and maybe a little nudge one way or the other.


Thanks!
I feel for you. I'm in a similar situation, except I'm up in New England. My only concern is the cold. If it were mid summer, I wouldn't even hesitate. But to me, cold+wet=danger. How cold is it down in VA?
I know sometimes being a hiker means knowing when to call off a hike, but it's so hard when you've put so much into it! I'll be praying to the weather gods for both of us.

Rmcpeak
09-29-2015, 14:36
I've got good gear and will be very prepared to get a fire going if needed. I'm prepared to get good and wet and have no illusions about dry feet. I've got a high quality freestanding tent -- will bring the groundsheet too as an extra measure. I've done several 40-50 milers but I've never set out with fiancee and dog knowing it is going to rain steadily for three days.

ddanko2
09-29-2015, 14:40
Do you mean that the Tooth itself is technical, or the trail up to it? I can probably live with out "summiting" the actual Tooth, if that's what you mean.

The AT itself is VERY technical just north of the tooth itself, with rock scrambles and ladders to climb. Other areas within a few miles south of the tooth are also very rocky. IMO, still doable, albeit much slower.

Rmcpeak
09-29-2015, 14:45
Lows at Daleville in low 50s, highs in low-mid 60s. I figure 10-15 cooler on the ridges. I've packed the 20 degree synthetic bags and heavier synthetic fleece insulation layer. Packa for me, Marmot precip jacket and pants for her.

Lnj
09-29-2015, 14:45
Is the fiancée a hiker too? If not, I say maybe go it alone, to not waste all your efforts, but she may really really hate it and it could turn her off to hiking more with you in the future. The dog will be fine as long as he/she is with you. That's just how they are. I think you would be fine. Just not sure she would be and it could be a very bad experience for you both, depending on her outdoorsiness.

Yes, I made that word up. :)

Rmcpeak
09-29-2015, 14:47
The AT itself is VERY technical just north of the tooth itself, with rock scrambles and ladders to climb. Other areas within a few miles south of the tooth are also very rocky. IMO, still doable, albeit much slower.

Can a dog do it? Hadn't figured on scrambles in that stretch...

Rmcpeak
09-29-2015, 14:57
Is the fiancée a hiker too? If not, I say maybe go it alone, to not waste all your efforts, but she may really really hate it and it could turn her off to hiking more with you in the future. The dog will be fine as long as he/she is with you. That's just how they are. I think you would be fine. Just not sure she would be and it could be a very bad experience for you both, depending on her outdoorsiness.

Yes, I made that word up. :)

She did 22 miles up and down Mt. Rogers with me earlier this year. It was an unusually cool and wet weekend. She had a great time. This hike will be twice as far and twice as wet. She asked if she could pack some Cheetos. I said yeah, they are light and high calorie!

Lnj
09-29-2015, 15:05
In that case.... Go for it!!

rafe
09-29-2015, 15:11
You might have trouble getting a dog up or down the scrambles just north of Dragon's Tooth. Given the hurricane in the forecast, I'd bag it and stay home. But that's just me.

Dogwood
09-29-2015, 15:13
Have fun dealing with a wet muddied dog...possibly in your tent with two wet humans. Bring drying clothes for you and towel(s) for both you and the dog. Consider shelters in that sleeping mix too. You might be fortunate to have all/most of a shelter for your entourage. :sun

LittleRock
09-29-2015, 15:13
Do it. I'm headed out to Southern VA (different section) this weekend too and I'm not letting any rain stop me.

Coffee
09-29-2015, 15:14
Weather forecasts in Virginia have been pretty bad as of late. This past weekend rain was forecast in the DC/VA/MD metro area from Friday to Sunday and the airport recorded not a trace. I didn't go on a short hike because of that and regret it. I'd take forecasts with many grains of salt. You can always head out and if conditions aren't favorable backtrack or do something else rather than miss out on the only opportunity to get out there this fall ...

Lnj
09-29-2015, 15:14
You might have trouble getting a dog up or down the scrambles just north of Dragon's Tooth. Given the hurricane in the forecast, I'd bag it and stay home. But that's just me.

Oh... hurricane is different than just rain.... I'd have to pass on this one if I were you.

Lnj
09-29-2015, 15:16
You might have trouble getting a dog up or down the scrambles just north of Dragon's Tooth. Given the hurricane in the forecast, I'd bag it and stay home. But that's just me.

Oh... hurricane is different than just rain.... I'd have to pass on this one if I were you.

jockellis
09-29-2015, 15:24
I would bet the dog will have the most fun.


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rafe
09-29-2015, 15:32
Tropical Storm Joaquin... from Weather Underground...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3129

32154

Harmless
09-29-2015, 15:59
If you are taking a fiancee, be *darn* sure that she will enjoy a trek in the rain. Yeah, you might be able to finish the trip, but if it isn't an "I'd do it again" experience for the both of you, what's the point.

Harmless
09-29-2015, 16:16
If you are taking a fiancee, be *darn* sure that she will enjoy a trek in the rain. Yeah, you might be able to finish the trip, but if it isn't an "I'd do it again" experience for the both of you, what's the point.

rafe
09-29-2015, 16:18
Flood watch across much of eastern USA for next few days...

http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/29/us/east-flood-watch/index.html

Ktaadn
09-29-2015, 16:27
I would still want to go, but maybe find a different area to hike in that is outside of the storm's path. A big part of hiking for me is having a nice view. Walking in the clouds all day does not allow for that.

Rmcpeak
09-29-2015, 16:31
Oh... hurricane is different than just rain.... I'd have to pass on this one if I were you.
Oh, come on, the hurricane is tracking north, isn't it?

Lnj
09-29-2015, 16:46
At the end of the day, HYOH. Just don't kill your dog and loose your lady in the process, if you can help it!

scudder
09-29-2015, 16:50
Lots of rain softens the ground. Add wind, and you get blowdowns. The trail sometimes resembles a creek after heavy rains . Wet surfaces are slippery. You are pretty much planning to test your gear . But finding water will be no problem.:)
Monitor the weather carefully and make your own call.

Rmcpeak
09-29-2015, 16:56
Lots of rain softens the ground. Add wind, and you get blowdowns. The trail sometimes resembles a creek after heavy rains . Wet surfaces are slippery. You are pretty much planning to test your gear . But finding water will be no problem.:)
Monitor the weather carefully and make your own call.

Yeah, basically if the forcast improves a little by Thursday night, we'll go, if it worsens we'll find a plan B. If it holds the same, then I don't know what.

nsherry61
09-29-2015, 17:01
If you want and adventure and suffer-fest, go for it. I love doing that type of thing at times. I don't like doing that type of thing with my wife and dog. A cold, wet, muddy dog is not fun to sleep with and leaving her outside the shelter is not an option in miserable weather.

Rmcpeak
09-29-2015, 17:02
If you want and adventure and suffer-fest, go for it. I love doing that type of thing at times. I don't like doing that type of thing with my wife and dog. A cold, wet, muddy dog is not fun to sleep with and leaving her outside the shelter is not an option in miserable weather.
No doubt. If it were just me, we wouldn't be having this conversation. I'd go for sure. I like punishment.

Rocket Jones
09-29-2015, 17:09
Here in N Va they're calling it a nor'easter. High winds and heavy rain starting Thursday, through Saturday. Up to 5" rain forecast around here, talking about making up our 4" precip deficit in 3 days.

Personally, I'd rather do that section in nicer weather when you can have fun and enjoy some views.

Rmcpeak
09-29-2015, 17:11
Here in N Va they're calling it a nor'easter. High winds and heavy rain starting Thursday, through Saturday. Up to 5" rain forecast around here, talking about making up our 4" precip deficit in 3 days.

Personally, I'd rather do that section in nicer weather when you can have fun and enjoy some views.

Yeah. Zero views would be disappointing.

terryg49
09-29-2015, 20:40
Better to be home warm and dry wishing you were in the woods then to be in the woods cold and wet wishing you were home.

The Phoenix
09-29-2015, 20:57
I've always felt that some of my better hiking stories occur in rain, wind, snow, sleet, etc... but on the flip side, sometimes it is just downright miserable. During my 2009 thru-hike, I didn't see the sun for 15 straight days in Central VA, including a flash-flood & 12 days of rain showers. I ended up on my backside covered in mud more than a few times (partially because I was hiking in crocs that had nearly 1,000 AT miles on them at the time)...

I'd still go, but I can certainly see all points of view on this one. Warm dry clothes, a positive attitude, and some good hearty food should do the trick! Just my two pennies...

rafe
09-29-2015, 22:14
So the thing is, if you're a thru-hiker or long distance hiker you mostly have to put up with whatever the weather dishes out. Hunker down, scoot for cover in town, or plow through it.

OTOH if you're a weekend warrior or planning a short section, and there's a hurricane forecast for the middle of it... why subject yourself to that? Why not just change your schedule a bit, if that's an option?

scudder
09-29-2015, 23:10
Local TV news reported 6 inches today at wintergreen (vicinity of the priest/three ridges).

Falcon
09-29-2015, 23:21
Did that section this July when weather was hot & dry. The views from Dragon Tooth, McAfee Knob and Tinker Cliffs were outstanding! I would not want to hike in the muck, rain and miss those views, but that's just me. It would be much more enjoyable in better weather.

misprof
09-29-2015, 23:48
What are the winds speeds they are calling for? Dragons tooth will be tricky with all that rain. What I am wondering about is, Would the winds be strong enough to topple the trees or large branches? If there is no heavy wind I say go if you can keep warm and be prepared to hold up somewhere or turn back if it is more than you feel safe with.

Rmcpeak
09-30-2015, 06:36
not looking good


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rocketsocks
09-30-2015, 07:15
The rain wouldn't concern me as much as high winds in the woods...sage enough for ya.

Rmcpeak
09-30-2015, 08:06
Too many negatives so we're postponing.

1) no views (the section is all about the views)
2) possible flooded creeks difficult to cross with a dog
3) slick scramble north of dragon's tooth
4) possible blowdowns/high winds
5) soaking wet for three days

The trail will be there.

LittleRock
09-30-2015, 08:59
Probably a good call. You'd probably be fine by yourself, but hiking with wife and dog is a different story.

My situation is much different - I'm going by myself and used to toughing it out in bad conditions. I'm also starting a 100 mile section and had already planned a few low mileage days at the beginning. I'd probably do the same if I were in your situation.

Hope you're still able to make it out there this fall!

Uncle Joe
09-30-2015, 09:25
I put off my first overnighter for that reason. Woke up to storms that were blanketing the N. Ga mountains. It's one thing for a shower or storm to come in on you but it's another to start a hike in rainy, wet conditions.

flemdawg1
09-30-2015, 10:50
I'm going for it. You wimps enjoy your couches. It's ADVENTURE TIME!! 5 out of 8 days of rain

But seriously, this will probably be the first trip I take rain pants where it was above freezing.

rafe
09-30-2015, 10:54
The view in SNP today (via facebook, but probably from the official site)

32160

linus72
09-30-2015, 11:15
we are set for a trip this weekend too, all planned, only time we can do it. its southern new york AT and with no real technical stuff except steep steps on anthonys nose we're going DOWN. planning to be wet, bringing an extra tarp shelter for hanging out under. still better than a day at the office. and rain amounts forecast are less than half inch a day... for the moment! but we've skipped one hike too many over a forecast that never happened to the extent it was told to by the weather folks.

linus72
09-30-2015, 11:39
we are set for a trip this weekend too, all planned, only time we can do it. its southern new york AT and with no real technical stuff except some steepish steps down anthonys nose. planning to be wet, bringing an extra tarp shelter for hanging out and initially setting up the tent under which worked great for us last time. still better than a day at the office. and rain amounts forecast are less than half inch a day... for the moment! but we've skipped one hike too many over a forecast that never happened to the extent it was told to by the weather folks.

Rmcpeak
09-30-2015, 13:08
Good luck to all who venture out! We are looking at Halloween Weekend instead. I figure odds are good for an AT psycho killer that weekend!

HYOH!

linus72
09-30-2015, 13:54
and on the upside the water sources should be flowing again!

egilbe
09-30-2015, 14:38
Major flooding in my neck of the woods. Glad I picked the weekend I did to go to Acadia.

rafe
09-30-2015, 16:17
Storm track prediction from Washington Post. Though all the forecasters are saying, "this one is very difficult to forecast."

32166

Rmcpeak
09-30-2015, 16:33
I'm postponing. No matter the landfall there's going to be several inches of rain in so va. good luck to any who venture out!


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Coffee
09-30-2015, 17:11
This looks like the real deal so it would probably be foolish to be out there ... hope everyone stays safe.

rocketsocks
09-30-2015, 18:13
Rain doesn't bother me so much a humid moist tropical hurricane air does, nothin' good about it...nasty stuff.

SAnVA
09-30-2015, 21:23
I live in Craig County Va, the AT passes through Craig just before you reach Dragons Tooth. We have had 5-1/2 - 6 inches of rain since Friday, yesterday we had major flooding, the AT crosses Sinking Creek (south of Keffer Oak) and crosses Craigs Creek (south of Audie Murphy monument) today the creeks are still way up and we are expecting lots more rain, do not try to wade these streams especially Craigs Creek, last week you could have jumped across them but not now!

bluemarine
10-01-2015, 04:56
I feel for you. I'm in a similar situation, except I'm up in New England. My only concern is the cold. If it were mid summer, I wouldn't even hesitate. But to me, cold+wet=danger. How cold is it down in VA?
I know sometimes being a hiker means knowing when to call off a hike, but it's so hard when you've put so much into it! I'll be praying to the weather gods for both of us.

-ㅔ0ㅔ


Is the fiancée a hiker too? If not, I say maybe go it alone, to not waste all your efforts, but she may really really hate it and it could turn her off to hiking more with you in the future. The dog will be fine as long as he/she is with you. That's just how they are. I think you would be fine. Just not sure she would be and it could be a very bad experience for you both, depending on her outdoorsiness.

Yes, I made that word up. :)


Lows at Daleville in low 50s, highs in low-mid 60s. I figure 10-15 cooler on the ridges. I've packed the 20 degree synthetic bags and heavier synthetic fleece insulation layer. Packa for me, Marmot precip jacket and pants for her.


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madeformisery
10-01-2015, 13:34
I've been bunked down in Waynesboro VA since Sunday. They've had 7 in of rain. The south river flooded and there is more on the way. People in town are so nice and helpful. Showers at the YMCA. Were not planning on hiking out until it looks clear enough. I'm not getting my wife stuck in the mountains during a hurricane so we shall see how things play out. **bat and whisper**

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Rmcpeak
10-01-2015, 14:22
Calling for 5 inches tomorrow in Daleville near where I was planning to start. I think I made the right call on this one. I'm dying to get out though!

Kenneth Kuan
10-01-2015, 15:38
Anyone know of an alternative hike that wouldn't be severely affected by the hurricane? Anywhere within a 6-ish hour drive from Charlottesville.

lemon b
10-02-2015, 06:22
Never bailed because of rain. Just another part of nature.

Rmcpeak
10-02-2015, 08:32
Yeah, if were just me, I'd have gone. My girl and her dog complicated matters this weekend.

Ryder
10-02-2015, 09:31
Yeah, if were just me, I'd have gone. My girl and her dog complicated matters this weekend.

Where are men like you hiding in my part of the world? The ones I seem to meet would rather head to a beach and drink a pina colada. :rolleyes:

Rmcpeak
10-02-2015, 14:03
Yeah, so total rainfall for this weekend in the area in which we had planned to hike now appears to be less than 2 inches. Had I known this I might have gone anyway. There would have been no views though.