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sittinguy
10-01-2015, 18:16
I pushed my plans and now I will be at Neels gap on Sunday. I figure if I need to hang out at Neels and start my hike to Dicks creek starting Monday I will do that.
Whats the thoughts on that? This will be only my 2nd section hike, I really don't want to puss out.

Mother Natures Son
10-01-2015, 19:18
Are you F..ing nuts? What if the storm heads inland more? When Sandy hit the trail, a lot of hikers were up a creek, with out a paddle. Stay home! Be safe.

Venchka
10-01-2015, 19:33
Have you given any thought to how long you might be at Neels Gap if downed trees block the roads? It doesn't take a hurricane to bring down trees. Excessive rainfall will be enough.

Wayne


Sent from somewhere around here.

Uncle Joe
10-01-2015, 19:34
None of the models seem to have this storm coming to N. Ga. It could bring lots of rain but not much in the way of heavy damage. That could change, of course, but the most you should see is rain. Which, BTW, we've been getting for the past couple of weeks.

Uncle Joe
10-01-2015, 19:34
Correction, at present one model has a trajectory for our area but most of the models are showing it moving East.

skater
10-01-2015, 19:36
Since it's your second section hike, I'm guessing you've hiked in rain before, so you probably know what you're in for and have the gear for it. Neel Gap is a fine place to wait it out if you need to. The hurricane looks like it's staying offshore, so you have a chance to have decent weather after Sunday.

Bati
10-01-2015, 20:05
Neel Gap is a fine place to wait it out if you need to.

Not from my experience. When I was there after a blizzard in '93 they had no heat, no phone service, no electricity and thus no running water (no toilets, no showers,no laundry, but luckily a few drips still in the hot water tank to fill water bottles). They did have great folks there and Jeff even opened the store for us so we could walk around with our lights to see if there was anything we needed to buy.

But the nearest working phone was almost 20 miles away and had a line outside the booth; I was lucky that I got a ride there due to some trail magic and that the road was cleared enough of downed trees to get there.

IF the storm is tracking there as a hurricane, think twice about going. If it's going off somewhere else and you'll just get 6 inches of rain or so, then you'll probably be just fine.

bigcranky
10-01-2015, 20:53
The NOAA 5-day total precip forecast (http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif?1443747007) shows the 15-inch line inside the northeast corner of Georgia, so close enough to Neels Gap. That's 15 inches of total rain over the next five days.

If they get even half of that, there will be severe and damaging flooding in the mountains of NC and Georgia (and VA, etc.). It's possible for whole mountainsides to wash away -- saw it in Madison, VA, twenty+ years ago. Massive trees will be down, roads will be blocked, power will be out, possibly for weeks in places.

Sarcasm the elf
10-01-2015, 21:00
Play it by ear for now. A number of the forecast models have been showing the storm going farther East that previously though, so there is a chance you could be in luck. If predictions improve this weekend the call Mountain Crossings before you start the trip and ask them what the local conditions are like.

That said, only people who are naive or stupid would intentionally camp in the woods in hurricane or near hurricane force conditions. I choose to believe that I was naive when I did it and it's something I'll never do again. Spending a long night fearing for your life while trees crash around your tent is not a good time.

Water Rat
10-01-2015, 21:42
I pushed my plans and now I will be at Neels gap on Sunday. I figure if I need to hang out at Neels and start my hike to Dicks creek starting Monday I will do that.
Whats the thoughts on that? This will be only my 2nd section hike, I really don't want to puss out.

My thoughts are... There is nothing wrong with playing it safe. Do not go if the only reason you would be going would be because you don't want to "wimp out."

Keep and eye on the weather - Nobody is 100% certain what the hurricane will do, or what area will see weather. At this point, it could be anything from a very wet trip to a swimming expedition. Anyone's guess at this point, so just keep an eye on the weather and make an informed decision closer to your time of departure. Do not underestimate wind (falling trees), rain (inches of rain mean crappy footing and increased potential for injury), streams that can easily become swollen rivers.... It doesn't take much to end a hike. Make a really wrong decision and there won't be a 3rd section hike because Nature can be extremely unforgiving. Keep in mind that if you get hurt in an area where nobody can get to you, it might be a bit before help arrives. They might be busy helping others. Just some things to keep in mind when assessing whether it is safe to hit the trail.

There is nothing wrong with playing it safe. Many of us have had times when we felt we have wimped out, only to realize just how smart of a decision we made! Listen to your gut and not peer pressure.

Here's hoping you get to have a fun hike!

Patrickjd9
10-01-2015, 22:16
I cancelled a planned day hike on the AT in Virginia for tomorrow. Flooding rains, rather than wind, are the main issue in the Blue Ridge.

rafe
10-01-2015, 22:22
Joaquin precip forecast from NOAA

Fredt4
10-01-2015, 23:28
Hiked out of the Whites during Hurricane Irene. Interesting experience. I say go for it.

AtWokman
10-02-2015, 06:55
Storm hiking is fun fun.
Be safe.

Starchild
10-02-2015, 07:19
I forgot what the cell coverage is there, but keep a eye on the weather via smartphone app or have a friend txt you a 'OK' or 'get out' txt and know your exits, and you should be fine. Yes hurricanes go where ever they want to and we have trouble predicting their path, but they normally move slow enough to give you time to get out if it does start your way.

I canceled a peak bag in the Adirondacks out of a safety concern about 1/4 mile from the summit, one I look back proudly on.

Traffic Jam
10-02-2015, 08:50
Cancelled my Western NC trip. It sucks but so is drowning in a flash flood or having a tree fall on you.

Ryder
10-02-2015, 09:07
I'm on the fence as to whether or not I should head out solo to Grayson Highlands area this weekend.

bigcranky
10-02-2015, 12:00
The latest predictions have the hurricane moving more east, which is good for where I live.

Dunno about Grayson Highlands. You could call the ranger office today and ask about the forecast. At least there will be water in the springs -- a couple of weeks ago it was really dry up there.

Berserker
10-02-2015, 12:04
If you've been outside in torrential downpours related to tropical storms, then you should know what you are in for...if not, then good luck. If it were me I'd stay at home and watch football, and go on another weekend when it's not going to suck so bad.

Venchka
10-02-2015, 13:43
If there is any good news in all of this: The mountains along the TN-NC border and up into VA caught a break. According to the Wundermap, it is not currently raining from Boone, NC all the way to Blacksburg, VA. My grand kids in Boone won't get wet after school.

Wayne

sittinguy
10-03-2015, 07:22
Thanks for the thoughts, I pushed my plans even 1 more day. Now I will be driving up to a relatives house about an hour away from Dicks creek. Then starting my hike on Monday morning.

Lauriep
10-03-2015, 08:27
The ridgerunner from Maryland "Bearbag GA-ME '14" said yesterday that there were a lot of trees down around the A.T. in Maryland. Soils are saturated from prolonged rains, and the limbs are so heavy in full leaf-out that it doesn't take much wind to blow large trees over.

That's one of the main reasons not to go out right now where heavy or prolonged rain has been falling and/or is continuing to fall, or to head to town if you're on the trail now. If someone decides to risk it, staying in a shelter is a good idea. If you must tent out, be sure to look up and examine the site for widow-makers.

Though there aren't many unbridged creek crossings Virginia southward that traditionally cause problems, once in a while a normally benign crossing can become hazardous for a short time after prolonged or exceptionally heavy rains.

ATC has alerts posted on our site at www.appalachiantrail.org/updates. The National Park Service site for the A.T. also has alerts at www.nps.gov/appa. Language is usually the same, or similar, but sometimes one gets posted sooner than the other.

Most folks here are aware of www.atweather.org (http://www.atweather.org), but if not, check it out. It can be a very useful resource.

Laurie P.
ATC

Uncle Joe
10-03-2015, 09:58
Things are supposed to clear up in GA on Monday. I don't think you'll see trees down but you will probably see some erosion.