View Full Version : Snow and COLD on the AT
My daughter was at Ray's (Ray's Weather) and got the week's forecast directly from Ray.
Snow Monday through Thursday. Bitter cold by Thursday.
Tipi Walter, and everyone else out there, Y'all be safe and warm.
Wayne
Sent from somewhere around here.
Traveler
02-08-2016, 09:59
https://sp.yimg.com/xj/th?id=OIP.Mca066cd15fe55051ea6bfe37b76a5ad3o2&pid=15.1&P=0&w=335&h=189
"I knew I should have looked at Rays Weather before I left"
rocketsocks
02-08-2016, 12:13
https://sp.yimg.com/xj/th?id=OIP.Mca066cd15fe55051ea6bfe37b76a5ad3o2&pid=15.1&P=0&w=335&h=189
"I knew I should have looked at Rays Weather before I left"can I have your Hawken?
LOL! Hatchet Jack in the bathroom scene.
But seriously, in addition to 6"-12" of snow at the higher elevations and single digit temperatures, + or - 0, it will also be windy.
Fun stuff. Or don't venture out.
Wayne
Snow, cold, more snow and colder. Pay attention to the mountain top conditions. It is 12 degrees and the wind is blowing at 20 mph at 8 am in Boone, NC, elevation 3,400 feet. Translate that to the high ridges and 0 degrees and 30 mph winds would not be unexpected.
I heard the phrase "Polar Vortex" on the weather channel this morning. Yikes!
File this under: "I'm starting NOBO in early February. Will I need a tent or can I just use the shelters? Will my 2 season sleeping bag and a liner be ok? Do I really need a down jacket?"
From Ray's Weather:
http://www.booneweather.com/Forecast/Boone
It's Day 3 of snow showers and flurries. Snow accumulations are nearing the forecast totals we have been advertising since Sunday. If anything they are nearing the top end of our Accumulations Graphic (http://www.booneweather.com/Special+Weather+Graphic) in the western half of the Appalachians. You'll hear a few mountaintop reports of over one foot tomorrow, I'm sure. In spite of snow showers and flurries continuing off and on through tonight, most of the region will pick up no more than 1" (dusting at most on the eastern edge of the mountains). However, higher elevations along the western escarpment could see another 1"-3" by tonight. Thursday has decreasing clouds after early flurries end.
Temperatures are very cold and with gusty winds. Wind chills are below 0 for most of the region, but in the -20s on mountaintops. Tonight, windchills will be in the minus teens for most, -20s again on mountaintops. Friday has a return of snow showers and flurries lasting into Saturday morning. An even colder blast of Arctic air arrives Saturday. High temperatures Saturday will be at sunrise then fall to brutally cold levels Saturday night.
Today we reach the peak of cold with the current arctic blast. But an even colder blast arrives Saturday. With gusty winds today, negative windchills are common (-20s on mountaintops). Tonight with even stronger winds, windchills will be even a bit colder. Saturday, temperatures will fall from sunrise highs. Saturday night and Sunday morning will be the coldest of the season. If you will be outside, prepare accordingly.
And snow showers/flurries continue... With the wind, totals will be nearly impossible to measure. But expect another 1" or less for most of the Appalachian region (no more than a dusting eastern edge); however, the western escarpment (near the TN/NC border) will pick up another 1"-3" before it ends. And it will end... Early Thursday morning as flurries.
We get a 24-hour break Thursday with cold temperatures. Winds will settle Thursday afternoon and night. Skies become cloudy again early Friday with another round of snow showers and flurries lasting into Saturday.
Sunday starts bitterly cold but temperatures moderate slightly in the afternoon. Clouds return Sunday night. Low pressure develops in Texas Sunday moving across the Southeast Monday. It's too early to clearly characterize the Monday event... could be a snow to mix (even briefly to rain) to snow showers event, but nobody knows yet. Stay tuned. Tuesday has lots of clouds with less cold temperatures; however, light precipitation cannot be ruled out even Tuesday.
Stay warm Y'all.
Wayne
grizzlyadam
02-10-2016, 09:25
Current air temp on Grandfather: 0.0* with a windchill of -28*
http://www.grandfather.com/current-conditions/
4eyedbuzzard
02-10-2016, 11:30
File this under: "I'm starting NOBO in early February. Will I need a tent or can I just use the shelters? Will my 2 season sleeping bag and a liner be ok? Do I really need a down jacket?
Yeah, too many (inexperienced) thru-hikers just don't understand the necessity of looking PAST the average temperatures and preparing for the deviations of 20 or sometimes even 30 degrees below average temps that occur over the course of any given month almost every year, especially in winter with early starts. A dozen people here on WB tell them and even spoon feed them the actual historical weather data and they say, "Well, so and so hiked one year and said it was okay. So if I add a liner to my bag will I then be okay - maybe? I'd could get a warmer bag, I guess, but I'm really trying to keep my pack weight down, or, I don't have much money . . ." Sigh.
Yeah, too many (inexperienced) thru-hikers just don't understand the necessity of looking PAST the average temperatures and preparing for the deviations of 20 or sometimes even 30 degrees below average temps that occur over the course of any given month almost every year, especially in winter with early starts. A dozen people here on WB tell them and even spoon feed them the actual historical weather data and they say, "Well, so and so hiked one year and said it was okay. So if I add a liner to my bag will I then be okay - maybe? I'd could get a warmer bag, I guess, but I'm really trying to keep my pack weight down, or, I don't have much money . . ." Sigh.
Yup! Coupled with "I'm from Flatland Coastal City. The Smokies are close to Charlotte or Atlanta. Same weather right?" Very few people have a clue when it comes to changes in elevation and latitude affecting local weather. Even fewer folks know that the southern Appalachians support the same/similar vegetation as Nova Scotia and Labrador. In their defense, they don't have a clue where Nova Scotia and Labrador are. Grinning & scratching my head.
But I digress.
Winter was slow to arrive, but arrive it has. It may be just as slow going this year. Hang on to your winter gear until somewhere in Virginia. If you have winter gear.
Standing by for the Tipi Walter Earth Mother of all Trip Reports.
Wayne
Current air temp on Grandfather: 0.0* with a windchill of -28*
http://www.grandfather.com/current-conditions/
Thanks Adam. I trust the wedding went great! Caty, my granddaughter, knew that Y'all were getting married.
All the best to both of you.
Cheers!
Wayne
Snowleopard
02-10-2016, 12:21
Colder and windier on Grandfather Mt. than on Mt. Washington right now (11:21am, 2/10/2016). Saturday at my house in Mass. will be as nice (or bad if you don't like cold) as both mountains have today. Of course Mt. W. will be brutal on Saturday, probably not survivable conditions there.
bemental
02-10-2016, 12:39
I was just looking at the weather as well, and it's warmer here in Maine right now than it is in all of the trail towns along the AT to Damascus.
You know it's even colder up in the hills.
http://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20160210/f016247ed36ef17a5de6d62e5e0bb5c2.jpg
4eyedbuzzard
02-10-2016, 12:41
Colder and windier on Grandfather Mt. than on Mt. Washington right now (11:21am, 2/10/2016). Saturday at my house in Mass. will be as nice (or bad if you don't like cold) as both mountains have today. Of course Mt. W. will be brutal on Saturday, probably not survivable conditions there.Excerpt from the Mt. Washington Higher Summits Forecast at https://www.mountwashington.org/experience-the-weather/mount-washington-weather.aspx
"Over the weekend, the second arctic air mass drops in plunging air temperatures to 35 below. With hurricane force winds expected over the weekend forecast period, wind chill values will drop to as low as 90 below."
Yeah, definitely "Not Without Peril" conditions.
Yeah, too many (inexperienced) thru-hikers just don't understand the necessity of looking PAST the average temperatures and preparing for the deviations of 20 or sometimes even 30 degrees below average temps that occur over the course of any given month almost every year, especially in winter with early starts.
It's like the six foot tall man who drowns in a river with an average depth of five feet.
Gonecampn
02-10-2016, 15:39
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The reason I postponed my section hike on the BMT scheduled for this weekend!
4eyedbuzzard
02-10-2016, 16:04
Just a sobering and scary thought regarding dangerous winter weather in the Whites as this cold front approaches - Almost exactly one year ago, on Sunday Feb 15, also on Presidents Day weekend, Kate Matrosova (https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/02/21/the-young-woman-and-mountain/SEBPucaGpA1Fun4R5uoj7K/story.html) climbed into a similar situation . Not a time to test oneself against the elements. RIP Kate.
peakbagger
02-10-2016, 16:47
As I noted on VFTT, the forecast for the weekend in the whites is lining up to be sunny but cold with high winds. Its a three day weekend plus college week off so lots of folks have made their reservations and are going to be heading up after reading several weekends of past trail reports which were above normal temps. They may see the latest forecast but figure what the heck "we already made our plans so we will drive up and hope the forecast improves". It may not and then they will decide, "we are already up here so lets head up and if it gets too bad we will turn around". Add in some hypothermia which clouds their thinking and its a recipe for someone getting hurt or killed.
Last weekend was the anniversary for Guy Waterman's last hike up Lafayette.
It's colder here on the East Coast right now than it is at 7000+ feet in Mammoth CA, Sierra Nevadas PCT.
JohnHuth
02-10-2016, 20:16
Space suit weather....and here I am scheduled to go into the Flagstaff Lake area of Maine on Sunday, high temp of 1 deg F. Sheeesh....
WILLIAM HAYES
02-10-2016, 21:06
carry a LW tent get a 15-20 degree bag dont depend on staying in only shelters
JohnHuth
02-10-2016, 21:58
-20 deg bag here
Space suit weather....and here I am scheduled to go into the Flagstaff Lake area of Maine on Sunday, high temp of 1 deg F. Sheeesh....
Maine Huts and Trails? Beautiful hiking around there. The Bigelows are beautiful.
JohnHuth
02-11-2016, 08:42
Maine Huts and Trails? Beautiful hiking around there. The Bigelows are beautiful.
Yup, MHT. I hiked there last January as well - wonderful country. There are a set of waterfalls on the Dead River that were partly iced over - wonderful sight!
Not sure if Andy is still the caretaker at the Flagstaff Lake hut or not. He was there during the self-serve season in the fall. Nice young man. The entire staff during the full service season was amazing. Well worth the money once you include the three meals. I keep meaning to go back up there, but saving my vaca time for a sobo hike of the HMW.
carry a LW tent get a 15-20 degree bag dont depend on staying in only shelters
A recipe for discomfort at best. Disaster at worst.
2 degrees in Boone this weekend. Could be Minus Double Digits and gale winds up high.
Hunker down.
Wayne
Sent from somewhere around here.
Slo-go'en
02-11-2016, 22:49
As I noted on VFTT, the forecast for the weekend in the whites is lining up to be sunny but cold with high winds. Its a three day weekend plus college week off so lots of folks have made their reservations and are going to be heading up after reading several weekends of past trail reports which were above normal temps. They may see the latest forecast but figure what the heck "we already made our plans so we will drive up and hope the forecast improves". It may not and then they will decide, "we are already up here so lets head up and if it gets too bad we will turn around". Add in some hypothermia which clouds their thinking and its a recipe for someone getting hurt or killed.
Last weekend was the anniversary for Guy Waterman's last hike up Lafayette.
Yep, real good timing for Presidents weekend. This might be the coldest it gets here all winter. It's already -1 at my house. No big storms, but the winds will be epic and that means blowing snow and trails drifted in from the flurries we've had. Then it warms right back up and maybe rain for Tuesday. Just great.
JohnHuth
02-11-2016, 23:37
Not sure if Andy is still the caretaker at the Flagstaff Lake hut or not.
I'll ask when I'm there. Yeah, the huts are really amazing there. They have drying rooms for gear and everything. I recall last year, we had a really cold day, and when we got in, there was a fire blazing in a stove, and they had wine and beer. Great stuff - I hope it keeps going - I can imagine them extending the system.
The goal is ten huts, spaced out between Moosehead Lake and The Mahoosucs. They are working on developing eco-tourism in the Western Mountains to replace jobs lost due to the forests products services declining. Its an ambitious goal. I thought it would be a huge boon to AT through hikers, to have a place to get a couple meals, a bed, and a shower, not too far from the AT. But, apparently, the ATC is at odds with MHT for some reason.
Anyway, have fun, enjoy the hospitality of MHT
grizzlyadam
02-12-2016, 10:24
Thanks Adam. I trust the wedding went great! Caty, my granddaughter, knew that Y'all were getting married.
All the best to both of you.
Cheers!
Wayne
As far as weddings in a blizzard go, it was perfect! We had a handful of guests that couldn't make it because of the weather, but it was still pretty special.
We were able to get away for a few days after to a friend's house at Watauga Lake and got out for a dayhike on the AT to Laurel Fork Falls.
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As far as weddings in a blizzard go, it was perfect! We had a handful of guests that couldn't make it because of the weather, but it was still pretty special.
We were able to get away for a few days after to a friend's house at Watauga Lake and got out for a dayhike on the AT to Laurel Fork Falls.
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Color me totally envious! I must get up there and play in the snow.
Wayne
Old Hillwalker
02-12-2016, 10:52
The goal is ten huts, spaced out between Moosehead Lake and The Mahoosucs. They are working on developing eco-tourism in the Western Mountains to replace jobs lost due to the forests products services declining. Its an ambitious goal. I thought it would be a huge boon to AT through hikers, to have a place to get a couple meals, a bed, and a shower, not too far from the AT. But, apparently, the ATC is at odds with MHT for some reason.
Anyway, have fun, enjoy the hospitality of MHT
Just in case you want to know about the MHT, here is a little review I posted just after the Stratton Brook Hut opened: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iLU6NwWWTQ
JohnHuth
02-12-2016, 11:38
On MHT - I did a hike last January, staying at Flagstaff and Grand Falls Hut. The trail conditions were poor for XC skiing, so we just hiked it, which was fine. The huts are plush for my taste - a good staff makes nice dinners and breakfasts, also they lay out stuff for lunch. Showers, very comfortable. They do a pretty good job grooming the trails in the winter. Of course the snow has to cooperate.
I hope they are successful in extending the system. This is closer to a Alpine model where folks use day packs and go from one refuge to another. Many years back, I hiked inn to inn on the Long Trail with my wife. It's a pleasant alternative for folks who want to get out, but don't want to carry so much gear on their back and like showers etc at the end of the day.