View Full Version : Starting Date?
I can start the trail at any time. I was targeting a March 15 start, but now I'm thinking it may be better to start between April 1-April 7 to hopefully avoid some of the cold weather in March. I know it can go both ways. It could be great in mid March. When would you start?
4eyedbuzzard
02-09-2016, 04:08
I think you kind of answered your own question to some degree - "I can start the trail anytime". Why not be ready to go on the 15th? If the 10 day forecast for Northern GA/Southern NC looks good on the 13th, or more likely not really BAD, then go. If not, wait until the weather clears and/or warms a bit more. You can't predict the weather much more than a week/10 days out, and even then it can change, especially in the mountains. As you noted, it could be great in mid-March, and then it could be miserable in April and even into May. Just no way of knowing. I'd worry more about a late winter storm - wet AND cold, than just plain cold. There's just nothing worse form a hiking standpoint than a cold sideways rain storm. Well, except a freezing rain/ice storm. Yeah, definitely avoid that if you can. That's the nature of starting early though - the earlier you start, the more you have to be prepared to possibly bail or hunker down if the weather gets really bad.
I started March 10th from Springer in 2010. Nice weather to start, snowed in the Smokies, fun times all they way. There is no perfect 4 - 6 month window of weather. Thinking about staring mid-April from Harpers Ferry NOBO next year as a flip flop hike. I prefer the solitude to the multitude I ran into at the beginning in 2010.
garlic08
02-09-2016, 08:29
I started my hike April 4 and if I were to do it again I'd definitely wait a couple of weeks. My wife started her hike on April 15 (tax day) and it was perfect--she hiked into Damascus the day Trail Days started, didn't see a flake of snow, no freezing temps.
Since you are contemplating when to start you might find this post of interest:
http://whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php/115608-NOBO-start-dates-and-completions?highlight=
The Cliff Notes summary of that post is a listing of approximate completion percentages for NOBOs starting in different date ranges:
8% -- January or earlier
19% -- February
19% -- March 1-7
24% -- March 8-14
24% -- March 15-21
31% -- March 22-31
31% -- April 1-7
29% -- April 8-30
28% -- May or June
People who start after the first day of Spring seem to complete in higher percentages than those who start before. There could be various reasons for that.
Since you ask "When would you start?" my answer is that if I ever did attempt a NOBO thru-hike I would start the last week of April.
Based on weather patterns and hiker start patterns, I'd go with mid-April. You may still get hit with a few sub-freezing nights and a bit of snow but certainly less so than if you start earlier.
HooKooDooKu
02-09-2016, 10:02
Since you are contemplating when to start you might find this post of interest:...
My guess (and this is just an educated guess) is that what you are seeing is that the later in the year to start NOBO, your odds of completing go up as weather improves (i.e. lowers your chance of dealing with winter conditions such as in GSMNP). But once you get past a certain point, the odds start dropping because you have not left enough time in the season to make it all the way to the end before Baxter starts closing the park.
Given that I think Baxter starts closing things up in mid October and that the rule of thumb seems to be that you need to plan to take 6 months to hike the full AT... the early April date seems like the best time to start.
As an interesting side note, I first learned about the AT almost 20 years ago when various East Coast newspapers came together and hiked the AT as a tag-team. One reported started in Georgia and hiked a couple of hundred miles, each week writing an article about their experience. Then when that reporter came off the trail, another reporter from another newspaper took his place. This 'tag-team' continued for the whole season until finally they all gathered for a final hike up Katatin. I think it took me a week of lunch hours to read thru all their articles published on line.
The reason I bring up this 'tag-team' is because I recall the group hiked the trail from the beginning of April til early October.
mountain squid
02-09-2016, 10:21
I can start the trail at any time. I was targeting a March 15 start, but now I'm thinking it may be better to start between April 1-April 7 to hopefully avoid some of the cold weather in March. I know it can go both ways. It could be great in mid March. When would you start?March 15 will be very busy as will Apr 1st, 2nd, 3rd and probably 4th. Here is WhiteBlaze's spreadsheet: http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/2016thruhikers.php
Also check out ATC's graphs for this year: http://www.appalachiantrail.org/home/explore-the-trail/thru-hiking/voluntary-thru-hiker-registration/2016-thru-hiker-registration-charts
I would consider mid April. Good Luck and Have Fun!
See you on the trail,
mt squid
(http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?100363-2014-Norovirus-Awareness)some observations (http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?14493-observations-from-fs42-(advice-for-first-week-on-trail)&highlight=)
maintenance videos (http://www.youtube.com/user/mountainsquid04/videos)
how to hike (http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?73587-how-to-hike)
It has always been a race against the seasons, or rather an effort to be maximally-tuned to the seasons. Unless you're a particularly fast hiker, averaging well over 15 miles per day. (Most aren't.)
Start too early and you may find it tough going in nasty weather, dealing with ice and or snow on the trail, and possibly in order to avoid that, kicking back in town or a hostel, waiting for better weather. There goes your "head start" and your spare funds.
Start late and you're likely to deal with some wintry weather near the end of the trip, in the White Mountains or Maine, with opportunities to climb Katahdin closing off in mid-October. I've seen snow on the AT in Maine in mid-September.
I'm considering a SOBO thru hike for either 2017 or 2018 with a start around July 1. If I decided to hike NOBO instead I would probably start on May 15. I am not sure why so many people start in March unless they enjoy winter hiking conditions.
Cotton Terry
02-09-2016, 11:14
Based on the wise counsel, above, I think I'll stick with my March 16th start.
AlyontheAT2016
02-09-2016, 15:58
I'm starting on April 24 because I don't want to start my first thru hike in miserably cold temperatures. Also this gives me a couple extra weeks to save more money.
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greensleep
02-09-2016, 19:47
So much of this topic deals with nobo starts. Understandably, since most thru hike attempts are nobos. But I'm planning a sobo for 2017 and need advice about starting dates and attendant conditions to be expected on Katahdin and the northern part of the trail. I have a lot of hiking experience in the south and the west, but none in the NE states. I'm aware of the black fly problems, but not how far this problem stretches from Maine. What weather might I expect on the northern trail in June or July? Any advice from former or current sobos will be greatly appreciated.
Smithwick
02-11-2016, 09:32
Another reason to consider mid April start, is you get to see spring over and over again as you trek north.
4eyedbuzzard
02-11-2016, 10:12
So much of this topic deals with nobo starts. Understandably, since most thru hike attempts are nobos. But I'm planning a sobo for 2017 and need advice about starting dates and attendant conditions to be expected on Katahdin and the northern part of the trail. I have a lot of hiking experience in the south and the west, but none in the NE states. I'm aware of the black fly problems, but not how far this problem stretches from Maine. What weather might I expect on the northern trail in June or July? Any advice from former or current sobos will be greatly appreciated.The earlier you start in June the more you will have to deal with swollen streams, black flies, mud, and possible trail obstacles such as blowdowns as crews might not have gotten to them yet if it's a late spring. You will encounter black flies throughout New England. They will be heaviest in May and early June and they will taper off toward July, but never completely go away. They do not fly well in the wind, and are inactive after sundown. Bring plenty of DEET and a headnet, and have a tent or bug screen for your tarp/hammock. If there is heavy snowpack and a late melt streams can still be raging well into June, waist to even chest high, and there are lots of streams that must be forded in Maine. It is often safer to ford streams with others. Mud in Maine (actually, throughout New England) can also be an issue. Some areas just never seem to dry out until later in the season. Temperatures should average about 45° low/ 70° high at lower elevations in early June. Records range about low 30's to mid-80's. Frost is not out of the question. As you get later in the month it will get somewhat warmer, but it's not uncommon to see lows of 40 in the middle of summer in ME and NH. For all these reasons, the old traditional start date for a SOBO was generally July 1. But as with NOBO's leaving Springer, people have been pushing that date earlier in recent years, and mid-June seems to be a very popular date. The later you start, the better conditions will normally be.
I started April 3rd, 2014. While the first week was unseasonably warm (high 70s during the day), winter made a last hurrah around April 15th with snow and nighttime temperatures around 10 degrees. I picked April 3rd after talking with 2013 thru hikers that told me they started on March 21st but wished they started 2-3 weeks later due to the cold.
greensleep
02-12-2016, 17:45
The earlier you start in June the more you will have to deal with swollen streams, black flies, mud, and possible trail obstacles such as blowdowns as crews might not have gotten to them yet if it's a late spring. You will encounter black flies throughout New England. They will be heaviest in May and early June and they will taper off toward July, but never completely go away. They do not fly well in the wind, and are inactive after sundown. Bring plenty of DEET and a headnet, and have a tent or bug screen for your tarp/hammock. If there is heavy snowpack and a late melt streams can still be raging well into June, waist to even chest high, and there are lots of streams that must be forded in Maine. It is often safer to ford streams with others. Mud in Maine (actually, throughout New England) can also be an issue. Some areas just never seem to dry out until later in the season. Temperatures should average about 45° low/ 70° high at lower elevations in early June. Records range about low 30's to mid-80's. Frost is not out of the question. As you get later in the month it will get somewhat warmer, but it's not uncommon to see lows of 40 in the middle of summer in ME and NH. For all these reasons, the old traditional start date for a SOBO was generally July 1. But as with NOBO's leaving Springer, people have been pushing that date earlier in recent years, and mid-June seems to be a very popular date. The later you start, the better conditions will normally be.
Thank you. I'm looking at late June at this time, giving your advice heavy consideration!
4eyedbuzzard
02-12-2016, 20:37
Thank you. I'm looking at late June at this time, giving your advice heavy consideration!The flip side of this is that the later you start, the later you hit the southern Appalachians, and early "winter conditions" in the south depending upon your pace. Seems like a lot of SOBO hikers are starting early through mid-June this year. http://www.appalachiantrail.org/home/explore-the-trail/thru-hiking/voluntary-thru-hiker-registration/2016-thru-hiker-registration-charts So far it's been a mild winter in New England with low snowpack levels. If low snowpack and warmer weather patterns continue, the melt will come earlier than normal and hiking conditions will be better than average.
Christoph
02-13-2016, 18:41
I started my attempt on April 19th last year. I'd pick that date when I go for the 2nd attempt, because the weather was fair, plus most of the bubble has passed. I didn't run into large groups until I got to the Smokies, but everyone had to stay at the shelters. It quickly fizzled out though and while I thought I was hiking alone mostly, people were not very far behind or in front. I hung with crowds here and there and hiked solo so I got to experience both ends of the spectrum a little bit. I did start out in a tornado warning, I later found out, which would explain all the lightning and golf ball sized hail going up the approach trails metal stairs. haha If anything that 1st day, my gear stayed dry so I figured it was a good test.
High Mileage
02-29-2016, 22:49
I've made a full Thru last year and started May 10th, my attempt the year before I started on May 3rd.
Planning on starting out in Damascus (where I left off in '89) the first of April. Hopefully I'll not be swarmed with crowds and have a little easier time with the terrain there than in Georgia. It's been twenty-seven years since my last AT hike, and believe it or not, I'm twenty-seven years older as well... How the hell did that happen?