And so it begins...

[Uncle Joe]

I realize others have already started their thru-hike, in fact I met a thru-hiker several weeks back at Deep Gap shelter in GA, but I ran into 3 today on a short hike up to Long Creek Falls from Three-Forks. They seemed to be aware of the coming wintery weather later tonight. I told them I hoped the high elevation would keep them in frozen precipitation as opposed to freezing rain. It's going to be a rough night for them tonight and anyone along the trail!

[Sarcasm the elf]

Yikes! I just saw the forecast for Georgia tomorrow.
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I'll gladly choose to backpack in subzero temperatures instead of 30 degrees and raining any day.

[Uncle Joe]

As luck would have it, the 1am start time never materialized. I'd think the rain coming through during the day would mean at least it's not snow or sleet. Still wet and cold is no bueno!

[rafe]

I recall the question-and-answer session after the "premier" of Chris Gallaway's film at ALDHA a couple years ago. Chris started pretty early and ran into plenty of snow, ice, sleet and other nastiness in the Smokies -- it's all in the film. Anyway, I remember Jack Tarlin asking Chris, specifically about the early start, and the consequences thereof... "What were you thinking?" That got a good rise out of the audience and a sheepish grin from Chris.

[colorado_rob]

In all of my outdoor activities, I have lived by the mantra: "There is no such thing as bad weather, only inadequate gear".

Well, I changed my tune out there in the east during my AT hike... Heavy rain when it's right at freezing was more than my "adequate gear" could handle.... We basically never have those conditions here out west in the mountains. I learned me a harsh, hypothermic lesson that I did survive, but it was a close call.

[rafe]

In all of my outdoor activities, I have lived by the mantra: "There is no such thing as bad weather, only inadequate gear".

Well, I changed my tune out there in the east during my AT hike... Heavy rain when it's right at freezing was more than my "adequate gear" could handle.... We basically never have those conditions here out west in the mountains. I learned me a harsh, hypothermic lesson that I did survive, but it was a close call.

Dare I say it: as we age, our tolerance for inhospitable weather declines. The evidence is overwhelming.

Another hiker died this weekend on the AT -- not a thru-hiker, but a local peakbagger, supposedly quite experienced, had all the right gear. 65 years old. On a summit I know and have hiked many times. The weather was horrid, as bad as it gets, really. Other than that, no details on cause of death.

[illabelle]

As luck would have it, the 1am start time never materialized. I'd think the rain coming through during the day would mean at least it's not snow or sleet. Still wet and cold is no bueno!

I'm beginning to equate meteorologists and weather forecasts with astrologists and horoscopes. Saturday's forecast for Sunday at my house was 5-8" of snow, followed by 1-3" on Monday. Sunday morning, they had backed off to an overnight forecast of 1-3", then rain. By evening, it was clear we weren't getting much more than a dusting, to be washed away in the morning rain. Bummer.

[Puddlefish]

I'm beginning to equate meteorologists and weather forecasts with astrologists and horoscopes. Saturday's forecast for Sunday at my house was 5-8" of snow, followed by 1-3" on Monday. Sunday morning, they had backed off to an overnight forecast of 1-3", then rain. By evening, it was clear we weren't getting much more than a dusting, to be washed away in the morning rain. Bummer.

I never trust weather reports from any site with paid advertising. Our local news station is always trying to get you to tune and lock in for the latest Blizzard! Northeaster! Polar Vortex! Hide the Children! weather event. The headline always talks about the highest total possible, if we're lucky they might show a chart with a range of possibilities.

NOAA is fare more reliable if they have a weather station even remotely near you.

[rafe]

I never trust weather reports from any site with paid advertising. Our local news station is always trying to get you to tune and lock in for the latest Blizzard! Northeaster! Polar Vortex! Hide the Children! weather event. The headline always talks about the highest total possible, if we're lucky they might show a chart with a range of possibilities.

NOAA is fare more reliable if they have a weather station even remotely near you.

Most of the weather stations and channels get their info from publicly-available data like the NOAA. It's not like every station has their own radar and weather balloons and data-collection instruments.

I don't think the reports were overly alarmist this time around. It was damnably cold almost anywhere in New England this weekend. A hiker died on Little Haystack in NH. Mt. Washington recorded -40F, without wind chill.

[Puddlefish]

Most of the weather stations and channels get their info from publicly-available data like the NOAA. It's not like every station has their own radar and weather balloons and data-collection instruments.

I don't think the reports were overly alarmist this time around. It was damnably cold almost anywhere in New England this weekend. A hiker died on Little Haystack in NH. Mt. Washington recorded -40F, without wind chill.

This time around being the operative phrase. At some point the WMUR "Boy Who Cried Wolf" factor kicks in. Some of it does come down to understanding how they use the percentages. (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/?n=pop)

[JohnThe Snail]

I work outside pretty much year round so am pretty attuned to the weather. One thing I've learned is that the local weather guys will always predict for the worst. When it comes, they were the heroes who warned us. When it doesn't happen (the norm) everyone is thankful and just laughs off the forecast. I prefer accuracy so usually watch the weather channel. They seem more concerned with accuracy than sensationalism.

[smokey mtn hiker]

I'm beginning to equate meteorologists and weather forecasts with astrologists and horoscopes. Saturday's forecast for Sunday at my house was 5-8" of snow, followed by 1-3" on Monday. Sunday morning, they had backed off to an overnight forecast of 1-3", then rain. By evening, it was clear we weren't getting much more than a dusting, to be washed away in the morning rain. Bummer.

Our local (Knoxville ) stations had us thinking we would would also have 3 - 5" of snow late Sunday evening turning to ice Monday morning. We got a "light" dusting Sunday afternoon, little ice Sunday night and rain Monday morning. Now they are saying lows tonight in the 40s with 100% rain. Tomorrow morning I bet we wake up to solid ice!

[egilbe]

My meteorologist, almost daughter, did her Master's thesis on why the weather is so bad in the White Mountains. Her results were inconclusive :D

she explained that there are several forecast models they use. Some are more accurate locally, some are more accurate regionally and some nationally. It becomes a bit of an art deciding which forecast to use and which results, or data can be used or thrown out. At least one of the models are going to be right in the forecast for any given area.

[rafe]

My meteorologist, almost daughter, did her Master's thesis on why the weather is so bad in the White Mountains. Her results were inconclusive :D

she explained that there are several forecast models they use. Some are more accurate locally, some are more accurate regionally and some nationally. It becomes a bit of an art deciding which forecast to use and which results, or data can be used or thrown out. At least one of the models are going to be right in the forecast for any given area.

The "problem" is that that mountains make their own weather. And the weather can be completely different 20 miles away.

Last year my hiking partner and I drove up to Rte. 112 to climb Moosilauke via Beaver Brook Trail. Cloud level was even with the parking lot, so we decided not to even bother. We drove back through Lincoln, up the Kancamagus a bit, and ended up doing a pleasant hike up Mt. Tripyramid in near-perfect weather. Moosiluake and the peaks around it were in their own cloud system all day.

[The Cleaner]

There are several to many thrus already north of Hot Springs NC.One of them actually was complaining about the snow and cold:eek:.I just got back from a hike just above Hot Springs and was greeted to 16*, 30mph winds and 2' snowdrifts.I'm just now thawing out.

[egilbe]

The "problem" is that that mountains make their own weather. And the weather can be completely different 20 miles away.

Last year my hiking partner and I drove up to Rte. 112 to climb Moosilauke via Beaver Brook Trail. Cloud level was even with the parking lot, so we decided not to even bother. We drove back through Lincoln, up the Kancamagus a bit, and ended up doing a pleasant hike up Mt. Tripyramid in near-perfect weather. Moosiluake and the peaks around it were in their own cloud system all day.

Apparently there are three weather systems that collide over the White Mountains that make it very difficult to accurately forecast. I know she got sick of launching weather balloons from Mt Washington. For a forecaster, the White Mountains are a nightmare. Foe a researcher, they are a playground because of all the variabilities. She wants to go back there, eventually.

[MuddyWaters]

There is a weather bias in forecasting. They err on side of precipitation

People are happier if they expect rain, and it doesnt, than if they dont expect it, and it rains.

I would not doubt this applies to low temps, high temps, wind, etc also.