Where's the Bubble?

[spartan7755]

I'm a former thru hiker looking to do some trail magic next week. Where is the bubble?

[Slo-go'en]

Springer to Damascus.

[rafe]

Smokies, Hot Springs, Erwin, who knows? We're probably a couple weeks past peak starting season, so most NOBOs are already underway, if they haven't dropped out already. Some started in January, February and early March, so the earliest starters could be out of Virginia by now.

[Lone Wolf]

ain't no bubble. just a steady stream

[rafe]

ain't no bubble. just a steady stream

Call it the median, then. There's a distribution of northbound hikers along the trail. Probably over hundreds of miles by now. The median is somewhere between the leading and trailing edge of that distribution. It exists, even if we can't measure it. It might not have much of a peak, due to forces that level out the distribution -- people moving at different speeds, people dropping out, etc. I'm guessing that we're a at least a week or two past peak starting season at Springer. Nobo thru-hiker traffic on the trail in Georgia should start to ease up soon, no?

[map man]

The heart of the NOBO bubble is between Fontana and Hot Springs right now, if this year is like past years. Here's a table showing "typical" NOBO progress for NOBO completers:

TABLE 3 -- Date Landmarks Were Reached

MEDIAN DAY ~~ MEAN DAY ~~~ LANDMARK
March 17............March 20...........Springer
March 25............March 28...........Georgia Border
April 1................April 5...............Fontana
April 28..............April 29..............Damascus
May 29..............May 28..............Waynesboro
June 9...............June 8...............Harpers Ferry
June 29.............June 27..............DWG
July 12..............July 10...............Kent
Aug. 5...............Aug. 2...............Glencliff
Aug. 15.............Aug. 12..............Gorham
Aug. 26.............Aug. 22..............Stratton
Sept. 9..............Sept. 4..............Katahdin!

Here's a link to the article this table came from:

http://whiteblaze.net/forum/content.php/44-AT-Hiking-Rates-Section-by-Section

[Jack Tarlin]

I would tend to agree with Map Man. There are a ton of hikers in Franklin NC today with lots just behind, and of course, there are hundreds of folks that haven't even started yet from Georgia, but we have reached the point in the season that there are more people North of here than South of here. My guess is Standing Bear Farm and Hot Springs are pretty crazy places to be this weekend, in other words, I wish I was there!

[rafe]

Seen this morning on facebook (New England Hiking Meetup): "first nobo hikers "speedstick" and "legend" should be in nh today or tomorrow"

The leading edge, while it may be thin, extends to NH already.

[Kaptnsplash]

Speedstick made it to Hanover today as far as I know.

[Gambit McCrae]

Ill be around Pearisburg hiking for 4 days this next weekend, guessing I will have lots of company haha

[Jack Tarlin]

Anywhere between Hot Springs and Damascus will be lousy with hikers at the moment, with plenty even further North in Virginia. One idea for Trail magic in the area: Partnership Shelter, just off of VA. 16 near Marion. You can park a vehicle within easy walk of the shelter, there's a fire pit, running water, a dumpster, and the area can accomodate lots of people. And you'd be doing your magic by (or in) a parking lot, so nobody can complain about you ruining anyone's "wilderness experience". PS, do not, repeat do not distribute or drink beer or other adult beverages here, it is expressly forbidden here. Whoops. I just noted the date of your post, but I'm passing this along anyway, in case you want to come out again some other weekend!