How late can I start a thru-hike and still encounter a reasonable number of people?

[equazcion]

I'm getting a late start, and one of my fears is that there won't be very many people around. I'm starting this alone, and I'm hoping to find a group, or one buddy, or at least have other people in the general vicinity.

I've read that the latest you should start a thru-hike is the first week of May. Are there a significant number of people who actually start that late? Or later? If I aim for the last week of April, will that make any significant difference?

I'm planning on skipping the approach hike from Amicalola Falls, just to hopefully catch up a tiny bit. I'd be willing to start even further along if it'll mean bigger crowds, more of a group-ish atmosphere...

As you can see I'm a beginner and a little apprehensive about the possibility that I'll be all alone out there. Thanks for any clarity.

[illabelle]

If you want to be with the group, start your hike north of the Smokies, walk north with everybody else, then come back and finish the stuff you missed. If you reach Damascus, VA in mid-May for Trail Days, you'll be in the thick of things.

[equazcion]

If you want to be with the group, start your hike north of the Smokies, walk north with everybody else, then come back and finish the stuff you missed. If you reach Damascus, VA in mid-May for Trail Days, you'll be in the thick of things.

You rock. Thank you.

Could I ask, was there a way you figured this out, or was it just from experience? Is there a way to calculate where "the group" will (generally) be at a given time? I may need to leave the hike temporarily to travel home for a family occasion at one point, and I'll want to re-join wherever the crowd will be afterward.

Thanks again!

[egilbe]

You aren't going to be able to keep up with the crowd. They will be veteran, seasoned hikers at that point and will leave you behind very quickly.

[equazcion]

You aren't going to be able to keep up with the crowd. They will be veteran, seasoned hikers at that point and will leave you behind very quickly.

Yeah, that's probably true. Although if I can at least start at a point where I'll still be able to fall in with the smaller population of slower people, that's fine. I just don't want to start at a place/time where I'll be all alone and even the slow people will already be long gone (ie. way ahead of me).

[rafe]

The start pattern at Springer is a bell curve. It starts in January or February, peaks in mid-March, trails off in late April or so. The "median" hiker walks a bit slow-ish for the first few weeks but settles into a (roughly) 15 mile per day pace after the first few weeks.

To the extent that the peak is even discernible, it would be around Hot Springs or Erwin right now. A fellow name mapman has published excellent statistics on hiker movement patterns -- you can find it in the reference section of Whitelaze.

Groups begin to form on day one, but they are constantly breaking up and re-forming as hikers move northward.

[bigcranky]

You could start in Harper's Ferry in early May and do a flip-flop hike. (Hike north to Katahdin, then flip back to HF and hike south to Springer.) There will be other hikers on the trail, though not as many as in March at Springer. There's even a kickoff festival for flip-floppers at the AT headquarters in HF sometime around the beginning of May.

No matter where you get on the trail in the South on May 1, there will be other hikers. The "bunch" is extremely spread out over hundreds of miles of trail. You could get off for a week and get back on where you left and still find a lot of hikers.

[daddytwosticks]

I have section hiked a lot in North Georgia/NC area for years now. You would be surprised at the number of people who start a northbound thru hike in late April/early May. I remember spending a night at the Long Branch shelter back three years ago sometime around the Memorial Day weekend. There was a group of late starting thru hikers very excited to get into Franklin. Good luck on your hike. :)

[capehiker]

I am starting May 14 NoBo. I know of a few others starting around my time. While the thru hiking bubble won't be large, there will be many people hiking and camping along the trail.

[equazcion]

I am starting May 14 NoBo. I know of a few others starting around my time. While the thru hiking bubble won't be large, there will be many people hiking and camping along the trail.


I have section hiked a lot in North Georgia/NC area for years now. You would be surprised at the number of people who start a northbound thru hike in late April/early May. I remember spending a night at the Long Branch shelter back three years ago sometime around the Memorial Day weekend. There was a group of late starting thru hikers very excited to get into Franklin. Good luck on your hike. :)

Thanks, that's a relief!

I just now booked a flight to put me slightly ahead. I took illabelle's advice above, to start after the Smoky Mountains. I'm aiming to start where the trail crosses Route 40 in Hartford, TN (I hope this is a sound plan...).

I'll be going incredibly slow, especially in the beginning. I'm planning on having to take day-long or multi-day breaks due to charlie horse. It's good to know I'll (probably) still have company. This is so terrifying.

[displacedbeatnik]

A better bet might be to start southbound at around the point where the front of the bubble is. You might be hiking alone during the day but at night, you'll be in camp with a lot of other people who can share their wisdom. And if you get into trouble, you're bound to have someone pass you going the other direction very quickly.

[CamelMan]

I'm not sure exactly when, but the latest I'm starting is May 18th. In 2010 I started May 5th IIRC and there were plenty of people, but not so many that it was crowded or annoying. I don't remember any problems with full hostels, shelters or tent sites. Or getting shuttles. Some of the people were starting very fast, never to be seen again by the likes of me.

[CamelMan]

Route 40 in Hartford, TN (I hope this is a sound plan...).

I'll be going incredibly slow, especially in the beginning. I'm planning on having to take day-long or multi-day breaks due to charlie horse. It's good to know I'll (probably) still have company. This is so terrifying.

That's at Davenport Gap / Standing Bear Hostel, and a couple of days from Hot Springs, which is a good trail town where you can take a zero, rest and eat. Along the way is Max Patch, which people say is one of the most enjoyable hikes in the area.

[map man]

I did a section hike from Franklin to just north of Hot Springs last year starting on May 10. I fell in with a number of thru-hikers who had started on May 1 or a little before. There were enough of them that, yes, I could definitely see that some had formed hiking groups of two or more who had similar temperaments and hiking speeds. In just twelve days on the trail I formed pretty good friendships with a couple of those hikers. There should be enough hikers around when you intend to leave (tail end of April) that you can too.

[illabelle]

You rock. Thank you.

Could I ask, was there a way you figured this out, or was it just from experience? Is there a way to calculate where "the group" will (generally) be at a given time? I may need to leave the hike temporarily to travel home for a family occasion at one point, and I'll want to re-join wherever the crowd will be afterward.

Thanks again!

I rock? Haha! Thanks, you make me smile! :D
I haven't done a thru-hike, and don't plan to. I'm "just" a section-hiker halfway through a 10-year hiking project, so there's plenty of stuff I don't know. I've learned a lot just by hanging out here in this forum.

If you start at Davenport Gap at the north end of the Smokies, it will take you some time to get up to speed, but you can learn from others on the trail. I think you'll have a blast. :)

[Uncle Joe]

Yeah my guess is even the first week of May you're going to have company.

[Berserker]

As a section hiker I have found that there are people all over the trail year round. I see that you decided to start after the Smokys, but if you change your mind and decide to start at Springer you'll likely find several folks starting around the same time. Keep in mind that there's not just thru hikers out there. You'll run into all kinds of people from weekenders to people doing month long or longer sections. From what I have heard in having conversations with thru hikers over the last few years, you may be picking a good time to start as apparently it has been getting over crowded down South during the main bubble recently.

[Seatbelt]

Last year I hiked the Smokies on Memorial Day weekend and when I got to Standing Bear, the hostel was full and several tents were up, at least half were thru-hikers.

[MuddyWaters]

I'm getting a late start, and one of my fears is that there won't be very many people around. I'm starting this alone, and I'm hoping to find a group, or one buddy, or at least have other people in the general vicinity.

I've read that the latest you should start a thru-hike is the first week of May. Are there a significant number of people who actually start that late? Or later? If I aim for the last week of April, will that make any significant difference?

I'm planning on skipping the approach hike from Amicalola Falls, just to hopefully catch up a tiny bit. I'd be willing to start even further along if it'll mean bigger crowds, more of a group-ish atmosphere...

As you can see I'm a beginner and a little apprehensive about the possibility that I'll be all alone out there. Thanks for any clarity.

You wont be alone
Depending on how far you hike each day, you could fall hopelessly behind, or alternatively pass the bubble up. Regardless, the trail is full of hikers, and a few really late thru hikers too.

No need to hike the approach trail, but do you really think 5 hrs makes a difference out of 6 mo and 2185 miles!

[GolfHiker]

I'm stepping off on Tuesday May 10th... I know of at least three of us going that date, and I'm sure a few more. We will also be hiking easy the first few days/weeks, picking up the pace up the trail. You will be fine. Truth is, I think all of us early/mid May starters will be in the true "sweet spot", behind the crowd, just enough good company to make a great experience! :sun See you soon.

[dudeijuststarted]

That would the perfect time to start a flip flop from Harper's Ferry to Maine and still get to do the south in decent weather.

[BillyGr]

You aren't going to be able to keep up with the crowd. They will be veteran, seasoned hikers at that point and will leave you behind very quickly.

Although if one is starting a ways up, they might be able to keep up with any particular group of hikers, but would at least have a group each day wherever they wind up stopping, as there would have been groups starting out each day.