View Full Version : Starting Early NOBO
SGTSteph
07-02-2016, 17:24
I'm looking at beginning my NOBO thru-hike in 2018. The issue is that I am trying to do the AT between graduating with my masters and starting my Ph.D, so I have time constraints. It seems like the best way to do this is to begin earlier than the traditional timeline. I'm looking for any advice on strategy and or gear issues or any info at all from anyone that has any experience hiking the trail early.
And to be honest I'm not interested in a flip-flop hike...already looked into that option.
THERE IS A WHOlE WEB COMMUNITY devoted to Trail Journals. Look for the early starters.
Be prepared. Be warm. Be safe.
Wayne
mattjv89
07-02-2016, 18:03
What kind of time window are we talking about? The skill set is basically the same but the recommended gear may change significantly depending on your start date.
SGTSteph
07-02-2016, 18:06
I need to finish by the last week of July 2018...so mid to late February for a start date is what I'm looking at.
I need to finish by the last week of July 2018...so mid to late February for a start date is what I'm looking at.
2 months of winter and near winter and short days. Be careful.
Wayne
Old. Slow. "Smarter than the average bear."
Slo-go'en
07-02-2016, 20:55
What level of advice do you need?
Novice, Intermediate, or Advanced?
I'd start in mid to late March and try for a 4 month hike. Use February for extra training.
I did springer to harpers ferry starting Feb 15 - the people I hiked with finished July 4 with no big rush - so not really much of an issue to do what you need
SGTSteph
07-02-2016, 23:20
What level of advice do you need?
Novice, Intermediate, or Advanced?
Well, as far as hiking long trails goes this will be a first, however, have some experience with carrying my life in a bag on my back and putting miles on my feet, so....intermediate? I'm more looking for information about the amount of other hikers during that time, any special gear concerns I may be missing, water availability concerns, etc. but as always, any info is usually good for something.
SGTSteph
07-02-2016, 23:21
I did springer to harpers ferry starting Feb 15 - the people I hiked with finished July 4 with no big rush - so not really much of an issue to do what you need
Any timing specific issues you guys encountered that other who start later may not have dealt with? Did you keep a trail journal? gear suggestions you used?
Winter gear.
Traction devices for your feet.
Staying warm and dry when all about you it is 33 degrees and wet.
Finding water will not be a problem. Staying dry will be a problem.
You will have ample opportunity to melt your own water.
Read, know and understand the GSMNP thru hiker rules and fees.
Plan a Zero and mega feed in Hot Springs, NC.
As a grad student, figure this stuff out for yourself. Do your own research.
Have fun.
Wayne
Old. Slow. "Smarter than the average bear."
Any timing specific issues you guys encountered that other who start later may not have dealt with? Did you keep a trail journal? gear suggestions you used?
Folks who start in March may catch and pass you.
Wayne
Old. Slow. "Smarter than the average bear."
In my first post I mentioned trail journals. A couple that may interest you. "Stuff Happens" is a common theme throughout most thru hikes.
AT 2013 Read Grumpy and ChinMusic.
http://www.trailjournals.com/journals/appalachian_trail/2013
Wayne
Old. Slow. "Smarter than the average bear."
SGTSteph
07-03-2016, 04:46
As a grad student, figure this stuff out for yourself. Do your own research.
Really? Any other glib and useless advice? Not sure how you do your research but generally it involves asking a question and evaluating the responses you get...kinda like what I'm doing here. For every issue you raise there are several answers to them, and having a discussion about them with people who actually hiked that time year was my goal...not re-reading the same few journals over again.
SGTSteph
07-03-2016, 04:47
Folks who start in March may catch and pass you.
Wayne
Old. Slow. "Smarter than the average bear."
And this is an issue how?
Slo-go'en
07-03-2016, 09:28
The weather in late Feb/early March is a crap shot. This year, it was a pretty brutal late winter/early spring with a lot of snow in the southern Appalachians. You can sort Trail Journals by start date. If you look at those who started in the Feb/March time frame, you'll see that the majority of them suddenly end after a month or so. Although some of them might have just stopped journaling for some reason, it's a pretty good indication they left the trail. Some will explain why, some don't. Reading these journals will give you a good idea of what your up against.
The main issue is how well you can tolerate being cold and wet much of the time for up to 3 months during the crappy weather part of the trip. A lot of people find that to be a lot less fun then they thought it would be.
How well you survive those first couple of rough months of bad weather is greatly dependent on having good gear, which means expensive gear. You need to make good choices for gear at the start and that's where the research comes in. There's a lot of stuff to pick from so you have to narrow it down to things which you think will work for you. Unfortunately, it's hard to tell if you made the right choices until your out there trying to stay alive with what you got.
Early starts bring marginal returns, due to the strong possibility, if not certainty, of winter weather and difficult trail conditions. Be prepared for ice, wet snow, wet feet and other hypothermia-inducing conditions. Chances are, you won't be making twenty-mile days in those conditions. You'll be doing lots of time in town recovering from your last cold, wet three day slog, or bracing yourself for the next. In a typical northbound season, you could see snow as far north as Roan.
I am not a fast hiker. I left Springer early April and caught up with several people who'd started days or weeks earlier.
Check out www.theatmovie.com ("Long Start to the Journey") for a great flick of an early-starting northbound hiker.
Said Baltimore Jack to the film maker, regarding the early start: "What were you thinking?"
Slo-go'en & rafe,
Thanks guys. Better said than I could have.
Wayne
Old. Slow. "Smarter than the average bear."
Since people are mentioning doing research at trailjournals.com, let me share some research I think will be helpful to you that I have done using trailjournals users as a database (240 NOBOs who completed thru-hikes from 2001 to 2010).
Since you are starting in mid to late February and need to finish by mid to late July that is a five month hike. The following table shows "typical" progress along the trail for hikers taking five months (as well as 4, 6 and 7 months):
TABLE 4 -- Four Hypothetical Hikes
4#HIKE ~~~ 5#HIKE ~~~ 6#HIKE ~~~ 7#HIKE ~~~ LANDMARK
6 days...........7 days..........9 days..........10 days..........Georgia Border
11 days.........14 days........17 days.........20 days..........Fontana
29 days.........37 days........44 days.........51 days..........Damascus
50 days.........63 days........75 days.........87 days..........Waynesboro
58 days.........73 days........87 days.........102 days.........Harpers Ferry
72 days.........90 days........108 days.......126 days.........DWG
81 days.........101 days......121 days.......142 days.........Kent
98 days.........123 days......147 days.......172 days.........Glencliff
105 days.......132 days......157 days.......184 days.........Gorham
112 days.......141 days......168 days.......197 days.........Stratton
122 days.......153 days......183 days.......214 days.........Katahdin
This will let you gauge your progress. If you fall a few days behind because of bad weather in your first few weeks I would not be concerned, but if you fall well behind or are still significantly behind by Harpers Ferry then I would be concerned about making your deadline.
Here is another table showing how many zero days were typically taken by groups starting at Springer at different times:
Zeros~~~Total Days~~~Departure Date
26.0.............170.2..........Jan. 1 -- Feb. 24
23.3.............174.2..........Feb. 25 -- March 10
21.1.............173.2..........March 11 -- March 24
18.4.............167.4..........March 25 -- April 7
16.1.............151.0..........April 8 -- May 20
The earlier people start the more zero days they tend to take, and I'm guessing some of this is due to winter weather in the early weeks of the hike. However, most people don't have a hard deadline like you have, so that could very well serve as a motivator for you to take fewer zero days.
Finally, you ask about any "timing" issues there may be. One thing to be aware of is that the Green Mountain Club, which maintains the AT in Vermont, asks people to refrain from hiking the trail during "mud season" in April and most of May. They ask people to not use the trail in the spring until Memorial Day weekend. Every year some NOBO thru-hikers (as well as other hikers) ignore this request, and there is no enforcement mechanism, but it is something to be aware of. If you enter Vermont soon after Memorial Day you still can comfortably finish by mid July.
The article I took these tables from is here:
http://whiteblaze.net/forum/content.php/44-AT-Hiking-Rates-Section-by-Section
Map man,
Were you able to determine an optimum start date and fewest days on trail? It's probably starring me in the face. Thanks for the detailed analysis.
Wayne
Old. Slow. "Smarter than the average bear."
Slo-go'en
07-03-2016, 20:07
Map man,
Were you able to determine an optimum start date and fewest days on trail? It's probably starring me in the face. Thanks for the detailed analysis.
Wayne
From the second table, those starting between April 8 to May 20 had the least zeros (16.1) and quickest completion (151 days) on average.
Thank you.
Wayne
Old. Slow. "Smarter than the average bear."
Map man,
Were you able to determine an optimum start date and fewest days on trail? It's probably starring me in the face. Thanks for the detailed analysis.
Wayne
Old. Slow. "Smarter than the average bear."
Wayne, this thread is my attempt to estimate the likelihood of NOBO thru-hike completions for various start dates:
http://whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php/115608-NOBO-start-dates-and-completions?highlight=
It appears that people starting between March 22 and April 7 have the highest completion rates, although people starting after April 7 also have above average completion percentages.
But to get this thread back on topic, SGTSteph, it is important to avoid letting time pressures make you start out too fast in your first few weeks on the trail. Simple math tells you that you need to average 14.3 miles per day to finish a thru-hike in five months. But you should not feel like you need to average that kind of mileage right off the bat. Starting at a slower rate and letting yourself ease slowly into higher mileage is a good way to avoid overuse injuries and general burnout.