the best dates to north-bound thru-hike

[Mooie]

Hi all, I'm sure this has been asked before. so please excuse the question.

I'm from UK so I don't know the weather patterns in USA so well.
I want to thru-hike 2017. I just need some advice at when is the best week to start.......I'm planning 15-20 miles a day with non-hike days so looking at the full six months. I was looking to start early march to end mid September....But I have read some info on here about bad weather Georgia/Maine in March/September.

thank all
mooie
:):):):):)

[Dan Roper]

If you're set on six months (or thereabouts) you're going to have bad weather at some point, somewhere. And early March start means winter in Georgia. More significantly it means you'll be in the high country of North Carolina and Tennessee (including the Smokies) in March and April. You will have stretches of cold, cold rain, and snow. Maybe lots of cold. Maybe lots of snow. You'll also have stretches of nice weather. You'll also be part of the through-hiking "bubble," which means you'll have lots of company (good for camaraderie and exchange of info, not so good if you prefer solitude and empty shelters).

Starting in early April will reduce the risk of cold weather considerably (but not entirely) but will expose you to hot weather in the Mid Atlantic States from June through August and will also put you at risk (on a six month schedule) of not getting to Katahdin before it shuts down in mid October (or earlier) due to snow.

You probably know this, but if you're going to average 15-20 miles per day overall through your trip, don't begin planning to hike that many. If you start out more slowly at 10-12 miles a day for a few days, then upping that to 10-15 miles a day or so as you complete Georgia, and then 12-18 as you go through the high country of N.C. and Tenn., you'll be in good shape by the time you hit the high mileage and good weather sections of the trail in May and June. Allowing for lower mileage near the start is more realistic and helps you work around the bad weather you'll experience on occasion. There will be days you'll want to hole up in Hiawassee or Franklin or Gatlinburg during raging torrents of rain or surprising spring snowstorms.

Good luck.

[map man]

A hiker destined to take six months to NOBO thru-hike would be best off starting the last week of March at Springer and ending the last week of September at Katahdin (the weather can also be dicey in Maine in early October). However, if you really do end up averaging 15 to 20 miles per day when you hike and take about an "average" number of zero days that would end up being a five month hike, not six (2190 miles divided by 17 miles per day equals 129 days plus three weeks worth of zero days puts you at a 150 day thru-hike). A hiker destined to take five months would be better off starting the fourth week of April -- that would avoid most cold weather down south.

[Slo-go'en]

Around the middle of April is about the best time to start for the best overall weather. You miss the worst of the late winter, early spring weather and get to see all the wild flowers in NC. Then you arrive in New England late enough to enjoy the late summer weather and possibly some fall colors. There is pretty much no way to avoid the stifling hot and humid mid summer weather. You just have to suffer through that.

There are a lot of things which affect "average mileage". Weather, shelter or campsite spacing, difficulty of the terrain, how you feel that day and so on. Typically mileage is on the low side at the beginning and the end, then medium to high in the middle where the terrain is more suited to big miles.

[Mooie]

thanks all, that has given me plenty to think about.
:)

[mattjv89]

I started last week of March and wouldn't want to go any earlier than that. A lot of people are pushing it to early March or early Feb in an attempt to beat the crowds. Since a lot of people have the same idea there will still be a crowd at those times, along with a much higher chance of severe winter weather early in your hike. And walking through hundreds of miles of brown, brown brown instead of walking with the start of spring. I was really set on an early March start but pushed it later after being strongly advised to do so by a lot of people, and I'm glad I did.

[swjohnsey]

First of April.

[Knees]

No earlier than 1 April and honestly, I'd shoot for mid April. You'll still see cold nights if you start in mid-April, but you shouldn't have to slog through multiple days of freezing cold and snow either.

[AfterParty]

I plan to start the last Tuesday in March in the next couple years.

[Don H]

I started March 15 and didn't have any problems with weather. Hiked in snow a few days, no big deal. I was glad I was up north in the mountains, away from the mid-Atlantic states summer heat by late July.

[garlic08]

I say April 15. That was the traditional date back before the turn of the century. I started ten days earlier and my hike would have been more enjoyable had I started on April 15. The last snow storm I experienced, as I recall, was on April 14.

[Hikingjim]

if you go april, it will be busier. So it depends if you want to beat the crowds
Early march could be fine if you are ready for cold and possibly waiting out a storm or two.

I would personally much prefer early march, but that's because I don't like crowds and I do winter camping anyway. 10 years ago I would have said "just go april", but with how popular the trail is, the decision is more difficult

[map man]

if you go april, it will be busier. So it depends if you want to beat the crowds
Early march could be fine if you are ready for cold and possibly waiting out a storm or two.

I would personally much prefer early march, but that's because I don't like crowds and I do winter camping anyway. 10 years ago I would have said "just go april", but with how popular the trail is, the decision is more difficult

It's worth noting, in case the thread starter is concerned about this, that more NOBO thru-hikers start in March than April. Here is a link to the ATC's charts tracking voluntary registrations (note the chart summarizing 2015 thru-hikes by month of start date):

http://www.appalachiantrail.org/home/explore-the-trail/thru-hiking/voluntary-thru-hiker-registration/2016-thru-hiker-registration-charts

I also found in my study of completing NOBOs from 2001 to 2010 that around 60% of them started in March:

http://whiteblaze.net/forum/content.php/44-AT-Hiking-Rates-Section-by-Section

I am told that decades ago April was more popular and since ATC is making an effort to disperse the crowds that start from March 1 to April 15 at Springer by encouraging people to start outside of that time frame and do less traditional hikes like flip-flops, well maybe March will eventually become less popular (though I wouldn't hold my breath).

[fiddlehead]

Seems to me, a Brit is used to a bit more bad weather than a Yank.
But I would be more worried about crowds (than weather)
So, I would start closer to the end of April.
Especially if you are planning 15-20 mile days.
You will eventually pass a lot of people, but the crowd thins out as it goes north.
I once started May 9th and it was great.
I really didn't pass the bubble at all.
Finished Oct 14th that year ('95) and had a great hike.
Still met lots of good friends that are still good hiking friends.
The bubble will start between March 15 and April 15 IMO.
I wouldn't want to be in it.

[Mooie]

Seems to me, a Brit is used to a bit more bad weather than a Yank.
But I would be more worried about crowds (than weather)
So, I would start closer to the end of April.
Especially if you are planning 15-20 mile days.
You will eventually pass a lot of people, but the crowd thins out as it goes north.
I once started May 9th and it was great.
I really didn't pass the bubble at all.
Finished Oct 14th that year ('95) and had a great hike.
Still met lots of good friends that are still good hiking friends.
The bubble will start between March 15 and April 15 IMO.
I wouldn't want to be in it.


That is possibly true :) , so I guess your got to either take pot luck with the weather or go with the crowds, but how busy is it really going to be?

again thank you all for your replies

[Don H]

It will be crowded for the first few weeks. By then many will have quit. Also if you start on a weekday it helps.

As far as the weather goes, other than not starting in January or February I think you just take what luck brings you. In my March 15 start I was lucky enough to have been in Monson, Maine when Hurricane Irene hit in 2011. Had I left in mid-April I would have probably been in Vermont which got hit severely enough that the AT was shut down across the entire state. Had I left a week earlier I'd have missed the hurricane completely. Point is the early snow is not the only weather condition, most of which you can't predict.

[garlic08]

If you're an experienced hiker and are confident enough to camp alone in the woods and maybe even skip a town once in a while, the "crowds" mean very little. Stay away from the popular hostels, master the art of the "near-o" (do your town errands during the day but don't spend the night), learn how to dry camp, and you can be as alone as you want to be. The people will be there if you want to socialize--stop at a shelter for a meal, share lunch at an overlook, talk a while while hiking, or even share lodging/laundry to defray costs.

[colorado_rob]

If you're an experienced hiker and are confident enough to camp alone in the woods and maybe even skip a town once in a while, the "crowds" mean very little. Stay away from the popular hostels, master the art of the "near-o" (do your town errands during the day but don't spend the night), learn how to dry camp, and you can be as alone as you want to be. The people will be there if you want to socialize--stop at a shelter for a meal, share lunch at an overlook, talk a while while hiking, or even share lodging/laundry to defray costs.Wise words. I started my hike on April 10th, a bit past the main bubble, but quickly hiked right into it, but it turned out to be a non-issue, mostly. Now my wife wants to hike the AT starting next spring, and we plan on a late March start, right smack in the thick of things, but we'll deal with it, plus we prefer the colder weather and have zero issues with snow.

All this being said, early April might be the best overall time to start, for reason already mentioned (missing what folks on here call "winter" weather, being a bit behind the main bubble, etc).

[sadlowskiadam]

I started my 2013 thru hike on April 28. This later date allowed me to avoid most cold weather in the South, and I finished on Oct. 12th. I was lucky because the fall weather in New Hampshire and Maine was warm for that year. If I hiked again, I would start anytime between April 15 and May 1. You will have plenty of time to finish the hike, including starting off slow and taking plenty of zero days. Just my 2 cents. Best of luck to you.

[MtDoraDave]

My last section hike started March 19th, heading south from Davenport Gap, NC (approximately mile 237) and each night I encountered NOBOs that started March 1st, but less than 10 - usually closer to 5 each night.

I'm not a fan of the bear activity in the Smokies when the bears come out of their semi-hibernation. Late March, earlier this year, I saw no bear scat on the trail - so the bears weren't active yet. Early April, as I recall, is when that hiker got bitten through his tent in the Smokies.

So, if I were going to start a thru hike next year, I'd start March 1st and be prepared for some cold weather and some snow. As someone else said, Brits are from a more northern latitude than most of us are from, and can deal with some nights in the teens and possibly a few in the single digits.

-or I'd wait a couple months, after the huge crowds went through, and do a flip flop.